Projo Fantasy Sports Blog

April 18, 2008 Archives

By David Ferris

We're patient with hitters and panicky with pitchers, that’s just how fantasy owners are raised to be. With that in mind, let’s start this week’s portfolio perusal with an examination of the pitchers who are driving us, or driving us crazy.

Pitchers

BUY

Rafael Betancourt, RP, Indians: His electric 2007 season (five wins, three saves, 1.47 ERA, 0.76 ratio, nine walks against 80 strikeouts) didn’t go unnoticed in the fantasy community, as the ghoul watch started early on Joe Borowski. Manager Eric Wedge wanted to keep Borowski for easy saves while Betancourt pitched out of the jams, but that's not currently an option with Borowski (triceps) on the disabled list. Betancourt has always had the talent and moxie to close, and now he gets the ball in the ninth inning. Take it and run with it, especially in stock-market leagues where the buy-in cost is marginal.

Brian Bannister, SP, Royals: He’s smart, he's crafty and he’s off to a sizzling start (3-0, 0.86 ERA), making a strong case that 2007’s breakthrough was legitimate. Bannister is never going to win a strikeout title but he has spiked that category mildly this year, and he hasn’t been picking on weak offenses (Yankees, Tigers). The Royals have a lot to offer to the fantasy public, accept it and buy in.

SELL, NEXT MONTH

C.C. Sabathia, SP, Indians: He’s had four starts and they’ve all been terrible, that we know. Now what? On the down side, he’s never been the bastion of physical fitness, and his 2007 workload came with a 64-inning spike (including playoffs). But Sabathia was hitting the mid-90s in his last start and it was his decision to break off contract extension talks in the spring, so I’m inclined to think there’s not a major injury here. It’s too late to think about a sell – the price has collapsed too much – so at this point you might as well wait it out, though I can’t blame you if you decide to bench Sabathia until he shows at least one quality turn.

A.J. Burnett, SP, Blue Jays: He’ll be wild sometimes and he’ll have rocky turns sometimes, that comes with the territory. But when Burnett manages just nine strikeouts over 17.1 innings while batters tee off at a .347 clip, red flags start falling. Keep in mind he’s passed the 170-inning mark just once over the last five seasons. You probably can’t sell Burnett for a lot right this second – similar to the Sabathia situation – but at the first sign of daylight, make a move. Here’s one stock you should be nervous about.

HOLD

Clay Buchholz, SP, Red Sox: He’s had three messy turns (two against the Yankees), but hey, the AL East is a tough place to make your fortune. With 12 strikeouts over 14.2 innings, it’s not like his stuff has totally deserted him. Look for a step forward against Texas next week.

Hitters

BUY

Evan Longoria, 3B, Rays: Maybe the bean counters in Tampa Bay have changed their ways; the club not only recalled Longoria a week ago, but it quickly locked him up, getting a nine-year contract (six years plus three option years) put together Friday. Longoria was a risky pick for non-keeper leagues back in March – it looked like the Rays would keep him in the minors for at least a third of the season – but if you took the plunge, enjoy your reward. Upside for 2008: .300-85-25-90.

SELL

Placido Polanco, 2B, Tigers: He’ll be around .300 and in a full season he’ll score 90 runs or more, but there’s plenty of downside here; Polanco doesn’t have much power or speed, and he’s been injury-prone for most of his career. He’s fine as a stat-collector in AL-only groups, but you need to shoot higher in mixed leagues. There’s plenty of buy-low potential on the Detroit offense, but here’s one name you don’t want to target.

HOLD

Carlos Quentin, OF, White Sox: Don’t let the .244 average throw you too much, because everything else is in line (four homers, 11 runs, 15 RBIs, six walks against just seven strikeouts). Quentin needed to mark his territory with Jerry Owens out, and so far he’s done just that.

Joey Gathright, OF, Royals: He ran like crazy in the spring, and it’s carried over to the regular season (seven bags). Gathright drops down to the fourth outfield spot when everyone is healthy in Kansas City, but David DeJesus (ankle, toe) hasn’t been right this month. He’s a specialist, sure, but the upside for Gathright is 60 steals.

By Rob Steingall

These recommendations are only for the fantasy week April 21-27, unless otherwise suggested.

AMERICAN LEAGUE

Put' em in

J.D. Drew, OF, Red Sox: Drew has been hot the past week, scoring and driving in runs as the Red Sox begin to warm up in the early going. He’ll face the Angels and the Rays next week, two teams who currently lack their imposing front-line hurlers (John Lackey and Scott Kazmir). His hot finish to last season (1.072 OPS in September) indicates a possible rebound, so take a flier on him now and enjoy the production he’ll provide in one of the best lineups in the majors.

Rafael Betancourt, RP, Indians: Betancourt was dominating last season, posting a 1.47 ERA and 0.76 WHIP along with a strikeout per inning. With Joe Borowski out for the next month with a triceps strain, Betancourt now takes the ball in the ninth for the Tribe.
According to manager Eric Wedge, “If he [Borowski] comes back healthy, I suspect he'll be the closer again." Speculation clouds that statement, and if Betancourt is lights-out in the ninth, the job could be his for good.

Bench 'em

Placido Polanco, 2B, Tigers: The traditionally consistent Polanco has started off the year on the wrong foot thus far, and his stiff lower back certainly isn’t helping matters. He hit below .300 in a month only once last season, and looks to be feeling the pressure of high expectations in Detroit this season. Polanco’s normally high contact rate (95 percent in ’07) should help him rebound, but his troublesome back and slow start should force him to your bench for now.

C.C. Sabathia, SP, Indians: After getting bombed in his first four starts, two of which came against the offensive juggernaut that is decidedly not the Oakland A’s, Sabathia sports an ERA of 13.50 heading into this week. He’ll be a two-start pitcher, but faces a much-improved Royals offense and the Yankees. He’s walked as many as he’s struck out thus far (14/14 K/BB), and has given up nearly two hits an inning. His workload increased by over 50 innings last season, and it may have caught up with him.

NATIONAL LEAGUE

Put' em in

Matt Kemp, OF, Dodgers: After a sluggish first few weeks of the season, Kemp has started to heat up and earn regular at-bats for the Dodgers. He faces the Reds on the road, then Diamondbacks and the Rockies at home later this week. Kemp hit 9 if his 10 home runs last season at Chavez Ravine, so this should bode well for success. He could be
this year’s version of Corey Hart, with more power potential. Snatch him up if some impatient owner dropped him after early-season woes.

Pat Burrell, OF, Phillies: Burrell is off to a great start thus far in his contract year, and seems to always be an underappreciated source of power in mixed leagues. He pays a visit to Coors Field and Miller Park next week, where he hit three homers in five games last
season (and probably drank his fair share of adult beverages). Burrell closes the week against the in-state rival Pirates, who hit three homers against in ’07. I’d bank on more of the same,
especially with a hefty payday to play for this offseason.

Bench 'em

Dan Uggla, 2B, Marlins: Never a threat to post a high batting average, Uggla is struggling right now to keep himself over the Mendoza line to start the year. His power is elite for a middle infielder (31 home runs in ’07), but has been lacking so far this season. With Miguel Cabrera moving on to Detroit, Uggla should see a decline in his runs scored this year, unless of course Jorge Cantu can match his career year of ’05. Don’t expect a repeat of the
production you saw out of him last season.

J.J. Hardy, SS, Brewers: Now batting in front of the pitcher, Hardy seems to be dropping further and further out of the good graces of fantasy owners, especially with a healthy crop of options at short this year. Hardy starts a home stand next week against the
Cardinals, the Phillies and the Marlins, but it won’t matter if pitchers work around him to get to the pitcher, who bats eighth for the Brewers. While you may see a spike in his walks, that won’t make up for his lack of production in other categories. Move him to the bench until
he is moved elsewhere in the batting order.