Projo Fantasy Sports Blog

April 16, 2008 Archives

By Michael Salfino

A generation ago, cookie-cutter ballparks prevailed, largely neutralizing the impact on stats such as runs and homers.

Today's trend to come up with unique, compelling stadium architectures has resulted in parks that can significantly impact hitting and pitching statistics.

Let's look at parks that increase or decrease scoring by 10 percent or more, not just last year, but according to the Bill James Handbook, for the 2005-2007 period. Remember, since teams only play half their games at home, any park effects have just half the impact on individual batter/pitcher statistics.

Here's how these effects are calculated. Last year, the Royals and all their opponents scored 754 runs at games at Ewing M. Kauffman Stadium and 730 runs while playing each other at other parks. So Kauffman Stadium increased scoring 3 percent last year (the difference between how those same teams scored while playing at Kauffman versus playing each other at all other parks).

We'll also look at the parks that have a significant positive impact on homers overall (again, at least 10 percent last year and for the entire 2005-07 period) and whether that impact applies to all hitters, or mostly to either righties or lefties.

By our run-scoring standards, there's only one true pitcher's park in baseball: the Padres' PETCO Park. Last year, runs were off 25 percent there, and they're down about 20 percent when you include the prior two years. So, expect Pitcher X to get a 10-percent cut in his ERA (4.00 ERA becomes 3.60).

The only parks to significantly and consistently boost scoring are the Diamondbacks' Chase Field and the Rockies' Coors Field. Those parks also increase homers greatly for righty and lefty hitters.

Consider, though, that you ultimately reach a point with park factors when parks that, say, boost scoring, don't register that way because too many other parks do, too. The rising scoring tide lifts all boats.

There are plenty more homer-friendly parks. Besides Coors and Chase, Wrigley Field, U.S. Cellular (White Sox), Great American Ballpark (Reds), Citizens Bank (Phillies) and the Rogers Centre (Blue Jays) greatly benefit all hitters. And Camden Yards (Orioles) offers righties a major boost while Yankee Stadium, as has been the case for generations, benefits lefties.

There are a surprising number of homer-suppressing parks: the Metrodome (especially for lefties), Angel Stadium (lefties), McAfee Stadium (A's, righties), PNC Park (Pirates, minus-30 percent homer for righty hitters), AT&T Park (Giants) and Busch Stadium (Cardinals).

Now let's (mostly) use park effects to make some player recommendations.

Buy

Scott Rolen, 3B, Blue Jays: He just swung a bat for two days in a row and should return from his broken finger inside two weeks. Rolen's shoulder is repaired and he's getting a 40-percent homer boost in moving from Busch to Rogers. Upside: .300, 25 homers from May through September.

Carlos Quentin, OF, White Sox: This well-rounded talent had 30-homer potential in a neutral park, and U.S. Cellular improves those odds. Rehabbing Jerry Owens is not in the team's plans with Nick Swisher installed as center fielder and leadoff hitter "for the foreseeable future."

Greg Maddux, P, Padres: Combine his unwillingness to hurt himself with walks with a great home park and you have a guy you can run with without fear for at least 125 innings or so before the toll starts to wear (Maddux is 42).

Adam Jones, OF, Orioles: Like Quentin, more of a long-term investment. But there's upside for 2008. Jones improved dramatically three minor league years in a row. He has great raw power and gets half his games in a park that favors righties.

Jon Garland, P, Angels: He was smashed in his one home start (two homers), but should be helped going forward. He has a 5.01 career April ERA, 4.16 and 4.09 in May and June, respectively. Should get a 5-percent decrease in ERA by moving from Chicago to Los Angeles (Anaheim).

Hold

B.J. Ryan, P, Blue Jays: He's back early from Tommy John, and reports are he's barely hitting 90 mph with the fastball. Big deal. Average fastball velocities in 2005: 90.9, 2006: 90.6.

Danny Haren, P, Diamondbacks: Park factors are less important when a guy like Haren moves from the AL to the NL and gets to face pitchers instead of designated hitters.

Sell

Zack Greinke, P, Royals: John Danks is more on-topic; don't believe his sudden ground-ball rate. Greinke's park boosts scoring a mild 5 percent. But he's benefited greatly by great luck on balls in play: only 22 percent hits, average is 30 percent. And he's stranded 97 percent of runners (average is 71 percent). The dominance isn't there (about 3 Ks per 9 IP).

Casey Kotchman, 1B, Angels: Sell steady-stroker Kotchman high since his park will hurt his power pretty dramatically (over 20-percent power decline for lefties). Three of his four homers this year are on the road.

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By David Ferris

All rankings assume 5x5 format (wins, saves, strikeouts, ERA, ratio).

* = check status

Last Update: 4/15
Next Update: 4/22

Starting Pitchers
1. Johan Santana, Mets
2. Jake Peavy, Padres
3. Brandon Webb, Diamondbacks
4. Cole Hamels, Phillies
5. Dan Haren, Diamondbacks
6. Daisuke Matsuzaka, Red Sox
NOTE: Stop nibbling, trust your stuff more.
7. Justin Verlander, Tigers
8. Aaron Harang, Reds
9. Josh Beckett, Red Sox
10. Tim Lincecum, Giants
11. Felix Hernandez, Mariners
12. C.C. Sabathia, Indians
13. John Smoltz, Braves
14. *Erik Bedard, Mariners
NOTE: Hopes to avoid the DL (hip).
15. Carlos Zambrano, Cubs
16. Javier Vazquez, White Sox
17. John Maine, Mets
18. Adam Wainwright, Cardinals
19. Chris Young, Padres
20. Ian Snell, Pirates
21. James Shields, Rays
22. Roy Halladay, Blue Jays
NOTE: Most underrated ace in AL.
23. Fausto Carmona, Indians
24. Brad Penny, Dodgers
25. Dustin McGowan, Blue Jays
26. *Scott Kazmir, Rays
27. Tim Hudson, Braves
28. Roy Oswalt, Astros
29. Matt Cain, Giants
30. Francisco Liriano, Twins
NOTE: Ordinary debut but upside remains.
31. *John Lackey, Angels
32. Jered Weaver, Angels
33. Ben Sheets, Brewers
NOTE: Quietly explore a sell-high.
34. Derek Lowe, Dodgers
35. *Yovani Gallardo, Brewers
36. Oliver Perez, Mets
37. Johnny Cueto, Reds
NOTE: Forget fly-ball tendencies, he's an ace.
38. Zack Greinke, Royals
NOTE: Here comes the breakthrough.
39. Chad Billingsley, Dodgers
40. Brett Myers, Phillies
41. Chien-Ming Wang, Yankees
42. Gil Meche, Royals
43. Rich Hill, Cubs
44. Bronson Arroyo, Reds
45. Jeff Francis, Rockies
46. A.J. Burnett, Blue Jays
47. Clay Buchholz, Red Sox
48. Shaun Marcum, Blue Jays
49. Joe Blanton, Athletics
50. Hiroki Kuroda, Dodgers
51. Tom Gorzelanny, Pirates
52. *Randy Johnson, Diamondbacks
53. Phil Hughes, Yankees
54. Boof Bonser, Twins
55. Andy Pettitte, Yankees
56. Jeremy Bonderman, Tigers
57. Greg Maddux, Padres
58. Wandy Rodriguez, Astros
NOTE: Money at home; let's see it on the road.
59. Edinson Volquez, Reds
60. Brian Bannister, Royals
NOTE: Smarts compensate for ordinary stuff.
61. Jake Westbrook, Indians
62. Ted Lilly, Cubs
63. Jon Garland, Angels
64. Randy Wolf, Padres
65. Scott Baker, Twins
66. Ervin Santana, Angels
67. *Pedro Martinez, Mets
68. Manny Parra, Brewers
69. Micah Owings, Diamondbacks
70. Kevin Correia, Giants
71. Dana Eveland, Athletics
72. Jeremy Guthrie, Orioles
73. Scott Olsen, Marlins
74. Kyle Lohse, Cardinals
75. Joe Saunders, Angels
76. Jonathan Sanchez, Giants
NOTE: Wild, but heavy strikeout potential.
77. Andy Sonnanstine, Rays
78. Paul Maholm, Pirates
79. Ian Kennedy, Yankees
80. *Shawn Hill, Senators
81. Nick Blackburn, Twins
82. Jesse Litsch, Blue Jays
83. Ubaldo Jimenez, Rockies
84. Todd Wellemeyer, Cardinals
85. Jon Lester, Red Sox
86. Cliff Lee, Indians
NOTE: He can beat Oakland, we know that.
87. *Rich Harden, Athletics
88. Mark Buehrle, White Sox
89. Brandon Backe, Astros
90. Carlos Villanueva, Brewers
91. *Matt Garza, Rays
92. *Kevin Slowey, Twins
93. Jarrod Washburn, Mariners
94. *Justin Duchscherer, Athletics
95. Zach Duke, Pirates
NOTE: No strikeouts Monday, a red flag.
96. *Chad Gaudin, Athletics
97. Odalis Perez, Senators
98. Tim Wakefield, Red Sox
99. Jair Jurrjens, Braves
100. Greg Smith, Athletics
101. John Danks, White Sox
102. Kyle Kendrick, Phillies
103. Adam Loewen, Orioles
104. Gavin Floyd, White Sox
NOTE: No-hit bid aided by nasty weather.
105. David Bush, Brewers
106. Jeff Suppan, Brewers
107. Brad Thompson, Cardinals
108. Joel Pineiro, Cardinals
109. *Dontrelle Willis, Tigers
110. Edwin Jackson, Rays
111. Justin Germano, Padres
112. Hong-Chih Kuo, Dodgers
113. Jason Bergmann, Senators
114. Franklin Morales, Rockies
115. Miguel Batista, Mariners
116. Jon Lieber, Cubs
117. Chris Sampson, Astros
118. Tim Redding, Senators
119. Shawn Chacon, Astros
120. Braden Looper, Cardinals
121. Daniel Cabrera, Orioles
NOTE: Remains in tease file for now.
122. Carlos Silva, Mariners
123. Kevin Millwood, Rangers
124. *Kelvim Escobar, Angels
125. Matt Chico, Senators
126. Tom Glavine, Braves
127. Kenny Rogers, Tigers
128. *Mark Prior, Padres
129. Nate Robertson, Tigers
130. Kason Gabbard, Rangers
131. Barry Zito, Giants
132. Livan Hernandez, Twins
133. Andrew Miller, Marlins

Relief Pitchers
1. Jonathan Papelbon, Red Sox
2. Joe Nathan, Twins
3. Billy Wagner, Mets
4. Mariano Rivera, Yankees
5. Takashi Saito, Dodgers
6. *J.J. Putz, Mariners
NOTE: Encouraging notes on his rehab.
7. Jose Valverde, Astros
8. *Francisco Rodriguez, Angels
9. Bobby Jenks, White Sox
10. Matt Capps, Pirates
11. Manuel Corpas, Rockies
12. Joakim Soria, Royals
NOTE: This club might win 80 or more.
13. Francisco Cordero, Reds
14. Huston Street, Athletics
15. George Sherrill, Orioles
16. Jason Isringhausen, Cardinals
17. Trevor Hoffman, Padres
18. Todd Jones, Tigers
19. Kevin Gregg, Marlins
20. Brad Lidge, Phillies
21. Brian Wilson, Giants
NOTE: Stuff is there, command comes and goes.
22. Kerry Wood, Cubs
23. *Rafael Soriano, Braves
24. Eric Gagne, Brewers
25. C.J. Wilson, Rangers
26. *Chad Cordero, Senators
27. Troy Percival, Rays
28. B.J. Ryan, Blue Jays
29. Brandon Lyon, Diamondbacks
30. Rafael Betancourt, Indians
NOTE: Probably gets a shot with Borowski out.
31. Carlos Marmol, Cubs
32. Heath Bell, Padres
33. Peter Moylan, Braves
NOTE: Sidewinder throws harder than you think.
34. Jonathan Broxton, Dodgers
35. Joba Chamberlain, Yankees
36. Jeremy Accardo, Blue Jays
37. *Joe Borowski, Indians
NOTE: Heads to DL; will job be waiting later?
38. Masa Kobayashi, Indians
39. David Riske, Brewers
40. Mark Lowe, Mariners
41. Tony Pena, Diamondbacks
42. Jon Rauch, Senators
43. Dan Wheeler, Rays
44. Tom Gordon, Phillies
45. Manny Acosta, Braves
46. Pat Neshek, Twins
47. Scot Shields, Angels
48. Dennis Sarfate, Orioles
49. Aaron Heilman, Mets
50. Chad Qualls, Diamondbacks
51. Leo Nunez, Royals
52. Joaquin Benoit, Rangers
53. Hideki Okajima, Red Sox
54. Bob Howry, Cubs
55. Juan Cruz, Diamondbacks
56. Matt Albers, Orioles
NOTE: Got it done in spot start.
57. Tyler Walker, Giants
58. Derrick Turnbow, Brewers
59. Octavio Dotel, White Sox
60. Justin Speier, Angels
61. Scott Linebrink, White Sox
62. Luis Ayala, Senators
63. Brian Fuentes, Rockies
64. Sean Green, Mariners
65. Matt Lindstrom, Marlins
66. Scott Downs, Blue Jays
67. Pedro Feliciano, Mets
68. Cla Meredith, Padres
69. Al Reyes, Rays
70. Jason Frasor, Blue Jays
71. Eric O'Flaherty, Mariners
72. Matt Guerrier, Twins
73. Mike Wuertz, Cubs
74. Joel Peralta, Royals
75. Alan Embree, Athletics

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By David Ferris

All rankings assume 5x5 format (average, runs, homers, RBI, stolen bases).

* = check status

Last Update: 4/15
Next Update: 4/22

First Base/DH
1. Albert Pujols, Cardinals
NOTE: Hope you enjoyed March discount.
2. Ryan Howard, Phillies
3. Prince Fielder, Brewers
NOTE: A drive-thru run might help.
4. Mark Teixeira, Braves
5. David Ortiz, Red Sox
6. Adrian Gonzalez, Padres
7. Lance Berkman, Astros
8. Carlos Pena, Rays
9. Justin Morneau, Twins
10. Derrek Lee, Cubs
11. Travis Hafner, Indians
12. Paul Konerko, White Sox
13. *Carlos Guillen, Tigers
14. *Gary Sheffield, Tigers
15. Jim Thome, White Sox
16. Carlos Delgado, Mets
17. Billy Butler, Royals
18. James Loney, Dodgers
NOTE: 2007 wasn't a fluke.
19. Ryan Garko, Indians
20. Todd Helton, Rockies
21. Kevin Youkilis, Red Sox
22. Adam LaRoche, Pirates
23. Casey Kotchman, Angels
NOTE: Early homers an encouraging sign.
24. Conor Jackson, Diamondbacks
25. Frank Thomas, Blue Jays
26. Nick Johnson, Nationals
27. Richie Sexson, Mariners
28. Daric Barton, Athletics
29. Jason Giambi, Yankees
30. Mike Jacobs, Marlins
31. Lyle Overbay, Blue Jays
32. Kevin Millar, Orioles
33. Joey Votto, Reds
34. Ben Broussard, Rangers

Second Base
1. Chase Utley, Phillies
2. Brandon Phillips, Reds
3. Brian Roberts, Orioles
4. Robinson Cano, Yankees
5. Rickie Weeks, Brewers
NOTE: In a healthy year, 130 runs possible.
6. Ian Kinsler, Rangers
7. Aaron Hill, Blue Jays
8. Placido Polanco, Tigers
9. *Howie Kendrick, Angels
10. Dustin Pedroia, Red Sox
11. Dan Uggla, Marlins
12. Mark Ellis, Athletics
NOTE: Underrated, could swat 18-20 homers.
13. Jeff Kent, Dodgers
14. Kelly Johnson, Braves
15. Orlando Hudson, Diamondbacks
16. Freddy Sanchez, Pirates
17. Asdrubal Cabrera, Indians
18. Ryan Theriot, Cubs
19. Luis Castillo, Mets
20. Jose Lopez, Mariners
21. *Kaz Matsui, Astros
22. Brendan Harris, Twins
23. Erick Aybar, Angels
24. Ray Durham, Giants
25. Mark Grudzielanek, Royals
26. Tad Iguchi, Padres
27. Jayson Nix, Rockies
NOTE: Tenuous hold on job.
28. Mark DeRosa, Cubs
29. Adam Kennedy, Cardinals
30. Ronnie Belliard, Nationals
31. Eugenio Velez, Giants

Shortstop
1. Hanley Ramirez, Marlins
NOTE: How long can they keep him?
2. Jose Reyes, Mets
3. *Jimmy Rollins, Phillies
4. Troy Tulowitzki, Rockies
5. Derek Jeter, Yankees
6. Rafael Furcal, Dodgers
7. Jhonny Peralta, Indians
8. Michael Young, Rangers
9. Orlando Cabrera, White Sox
10. Miguel Tejada, Astros
11. Edgar Renteria, Tigers
12. Khalil Greene, Padres
13. Yunel Escobar, Braves
NOTE: Might be top-10 by turn of summer.
14. Jason Bartlett, Rays
15. J.J. Hardy, Brewers
16. Julio Lugo, Red Sox
17. Stephen Drew, Diamondbacks
18. Jeff Keppinger, Reds
19. Yuniesky Betancourt, Mariners
20. David Eckstein, Blue Jays
21. Bobby Crosby, Athletics
NOTE: Good sell-high candidate.
22. Tony Pena, Royals
23. Cristian Guzman, Nationals
24. Adam Everett, Twins
25. Luis Hernandez, Orioles
26. Cesar Izturis, Cardinals
27. *Jack Wilson, Pirates
28. *Omar Vizquel, Giants
29. Felipe Lopez, Nationals
30. *Alex Gonzalez, Reds
31. Mark Loretta, Astros

Third Base
1. Alex Rodriguez, Yankees
2. David Wright, Mets
3. Miguel Cabrera, Tigers
4. Ryan Braun, Brewers
5. Chipper Jones, Braves
NOTE: Still elite when health cooperates.
6. Garrett Atkins, Rockies
7. Aramis Ramirez, Cubs
8. Chone Figgins, Angels
9. Ryan Zimmerman, Nationals
10. Adrian Beltre, Mariners
11. Hank Blalock, Rangers
12. Kevin Kouzmanoff, Padres
13. Alex Gordon, Royals
NOTE: A star by end of decade.
14. Evan Longoria, Rays
NOTE: Worth using immediately.
15. Akinori Iwamura, Rays
16. Edwin Encarnacion, Reds
17. *Mike Lowell, Red Sox
18. Pedro Feliz, Phillies
19. Melvin Mora, Orioles
20. *Ty Wigginton, Astros
21. Mark Reynolds, Diamondbacks
NOTE: Sell high if you can.
22. Joe Crede, White Sox
23. Troy Glaus, Cardinals
24. Jose Bautista, Pirates
25. Casey Blake, Indians
26. Mike Lamb, Twins
27. *Scott Rolen, Blue Jays
28. *Eric Chavez, Athletics
29. *Nomar Garciaparra, Dodgers
30. *Chad Tracy, Diamondbacks
31. Juan Uribe, White Sox

Outfield
1. Matt Holliday, Rockies
2. Carl Crawford, Rays
3. Grady Sizemore, Indians
4. Carlos Lee, Astros
5. Vladimir Guerrero, Angels
6. Alfonso Soriano, Cubs
7. Nick Markakis, Orioles
8. Ichiro Suzuki, Mariners
9. Alex Rios, Blue Jays
10. B.J. Upton, Rays
11. Eric Byrnes, Diamondbacks
12. Magglio Ordonez, Tigers
13. Carlos Beltran, Mets
14. Manny Ramirez, Red Sox
NOTE: Looks more focused in 2008.
15. Torii Hunter, Angels
16. Chris Young, Diamondbacks
17. Corey Hart, Brewers
18. Josh Hamilton, Rangers
19. Jeff Francoeur, Braves
NOTE: Power spike very likely.
20. Vernon Wells, Blue Jays
21. Adam Dunn, Reds
22. Jermaine Dye, White Sox
23. *Curtis Granderson, Tigers
24. Hunter Pence, Astros
25. Nick Swisher, White Sox
26. Brad Hawpe, Rockies
27. Lastings Milledge, Nationals
NOTE: Mets will regret this one.
28. Bobby Abreu, Yankees
29. Michael Bourn, Astros
30. Nate McLouth, Pirates
NOTE: Still room on the bandwagon.
31. Hideki Matsui, Yankees
32. Johnny Damon, Yankees
33. Kosuke Fukudome, Cubs
34. Jason Bay, Pirates
35. Raul Ibanez, Mariners
36. Ken Griffey, Reds
37. Josh Willingham, Marlins
38. Corey Patterson, Reds
39. Delmon Young, Twins
40. Adam Jones, Orioles
41. Mark Teahen, Royals
42. *Michael Cuddyer, Twins
43. Pat Burrell, Phillies
44. Rick Ankiel, Cardinals
NOTE: So far, so good.
45. Justin Upton, Diamondbacks
46. Willy Taveras, Rockies
47. Andre Ethier, Dodgers
NOTE: Might win a batting title some day.
48. Jose Guillen, Royals
49. Carlos Gomez, Twins
50. Jeremy Hermida, Marlins
51. Bill Hall, Brewers
NOTE: Dual-eligibility always helps.
52. Matt Kemp, Dodgers
NOTE: Do the right thing, Joe Torre.
53. Jacoby Ellsbury, Red Sox
54. Andruw Jones, Dodgers
55. Luke Scott, Orioles
56. *Mike Cameron, Brewers
57. David DeJesus, Royals
NOTE: Nicked up, but returned Monday.
58. Aaron Rowand, Giants
59. Austin Kearns, Nationals
60. Aubrey Huff, Orioles
61. Jason Kubel, Twins
NOTE: Can rake, if his knees let him.
62. *J.D. Drew, Red Sox
63. Xavier Nady, Pirates
64. Ryan Church, Mets
65. Matt Diaz, Braves
66. Carlos Quentin, White Sox
67. Scott Hairston, Padres
68. Angel Pagan, Mets
69. Gary Matthews, Angels
70. Franklin Gutierrez, Indians
71. Jack Cust, Athletics
72. Coco Crisp, Red Sox
NOTE: Jump 30 spots if he's traded.
73. *Shane Victorino, Phillies
74. Melky Cabrera, Yankees
75. Chris Duncan, Cardinals
76. Garret Anderson, Angels
77. Randy Winn, Giants
78. Felix Pie, Cubs
79. Travis Buck, Athletics
80. Milton Bradley, Rangers
81. Jayson Werth, Phillies
82. Cliff Floyd, Rays
83. Ryan Ludwick, Cardinals
84. Joey Gathright, Royals
NOTE: Fourth outfielder with DeJesus back.
85. Wily Mo Pena, Nationals
86. *Moises Alou, Mets
87. Fred Lewis, Giants
88. Jonny Gomes, Rays
89. David Murphy, Rangers
90. Ryan Freel, Reds
91. Jacque Jones, Tigers
92. Juan Pierre, Dodgers
93. Eric Hinske, Rays
94. Jim Edmonds, Padres
95. Alexei Ramirez, White Sox
96. *David Dellucci, Indians
97. *Jerry Owens, White Sox
98. Geoff Jenkins, Phillies
99. Brian Giles, Padres
100. Frank Catalanotto, Rangers
101. Emil Brown, Athletics
102. Ryan Sweeney, Athletics
103. Brad Wilkerson, Mariners
104. Marlon Byrd, Rangers

Catcher
1. Victor Martinez, Indians
2. Russell Martin, Dodgers
3. Brian McCann, Braves
4. Joe Mauer, Twins
5. *Jorge Posada, Yankees
6. Bengie Molina, Giants
7. Kenji Johjima, Mariners
8. A.J. Pierzynski, White Sox
9. Ivan Rodriguez, Tigers
10. Jason Varitek, Red Sox
11. Geovany Soto, Cubs
NOTE: Looks like the genuine article.
12. Ramon Hernandez, Orioles
13. Mike Napoli, Angels
14. Ryan Doumit, Pirates
15. J.R. Towles, Astros
16. Chris Snyder, Diamondbacks
17. Carlos Ruiz, Phillies
18. *Dioner Navarro, Rays
NOTE: Encouraging notes on rehab.
19. Josh Bard, Padres
20. Yorvit Torrealba, Rockies
21. Kurt Suzuki, Athletics
22. Gerald Laird, Rangers
23. Yadier Molina, Cardinals
24. Ronny Paulino, Pirates
25. John Buck, Royals
26. Paul Lo Duca, Nationals
27. Gregg Zaun, Blue Jays
28. Dave Ross, Reds
29. Brian Schneider, Mets
30. Jason Kendall, Brewers

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