Projo Fantasy Sports Blog

By David Ferris

March is about Grapefruit and Cactus scouting, sure, but it’s also about getting a handle on how our opponents think and how we can exploit their biases. With that idea in mind, let’s see how the current marketplace flows in the junior circuit.

Batters

BUY

Alex Gordon, 3B, Royals – He performed like a $20 player over the final four months of 2007, and you won’t be taxed for the sneaky 15-20 bases he’s likely to swipe. In more-competitive groups there might be a moderate bidding war on Gordon, but in more relaxed pools you’ll be able to snag him for a marked discount. Either way, he’s recommended in this space.

Akinori Iwamura, 2B/3B, Rays – He didn’t bring a lot of pop in his first season stateside, but he’s got a keen eye and underrated wheels, and he’ll qualify at two positions in 2008. It’s not a sexy pick by any means, but Iwamura is a nice depth play and someone who will earn at least what he costs the second time around.

SELL

Joe Crede, 3B, White Sox – He’s struggled with the glove and the bat from the first day of spring, and Josh Fields essentially has the starting job to lose, anyway. Crede needs to put a string of solid games together before he gets his street cred back.

Evan Longoria, 3B, Rays – Long-term, the can’t-miss label applies. But for 2007, we can’t be sure he’ll even be on the Opening Day roster; keep in mind this is someone with just 31 Triple-A games under his belt. Anyone who bids on Longoria with visions of Ryan Braun 2007 dancing in their heads is setting themselves up for a significant loss. "Evan Almighty" is a great idea for keeper groups, but stay skeptical in redraft leagues.

Jacoby Ellsbury, OF, Red Sox – He’s fast, he’s popular, he’s already got a ring, and he sure looked fantastic last September and October. But until the Red Sox decide what to do with Coco Crisp and Ellsbury, the expectant tag that’s been slapped on the kid makes him a shaky value for fantasy leaguers. October heroes generally don’t hold their value as much as we’d like the following March, especially when they play for a public outfit like the Old Towne Team.

HOLD

Magglio Ordonez, OF, Tigers – He’s not going to hit .363 again and the odometer just turned to 34, but don’t be worried about an injury risk that isn’t there – Ordonez has suited up for 312 games the last two seasons. Just by staying on the field, Ordonez becomes a very safe investment; the Tigers have assembled arguably the best lineup in baseball, Comerica Park is no longer death value for hitters, and Ordonez enjoys a cushy batting slot, wedged between Gary Sheffield and Miguel Cabrera.

Pitchers

BUY

Boof Bonser, SP, Twins – He’s shown flashes of No. 2 stuff – witness the 95 strikeouts in the first half of 2007 – and we also like the 35 pounds he dropped in the offseason. Bid on the tidy ERA and ratio we saw in 2006, get ready for a full season of "Teen Wolf" jokes, and give Boof a shot.

Dontrelle Willis, SP, Tigers – The stat profile from Florida has plenty of storm clouds in it, but Willis will get far better offensive and defensive support with his new mates, and we’ve seen him click on Jim Leyland’s watch before. D-Train’s missteps with the Marlins make him set up for profit here, and early reports on his velocity have been positive.

Daisuke Matsuzaka, SP, Red Sox – You know expectations are high when you return 15 wins and 201 strikeouts and everyone turns up their nose. One year removed from the buzz, consider the 2007 stats a baseline and bid the extra dollar here.

SELL

C.J. Wilson, RP, Rangers – A nagging biceps injury pushes him down in the closer race, leaving Eddie Guardado and Joaquin Benoit to get the first chances in the ninth inning.

Huston Street, RP, Athletics – He’s proven to be a high-maintenance pitcher of late and there’s no guarantee Oakland holds onto him all year even if he’s physically capable. Be careful what you dial up here – Fascination Street could quickly turn into Shakedown Street.

HOLD

Todd Jones, RP, Tigers – He’s a soft-serve closer who needs three-run leads and at-em balls to be successful. That said, Jones has a team that will get him into position over and over, and Jim Leyland has always been a believer in the veteran. So long as you’re not watching Jones pitch-to-pitch, you’ll be able to live with his moderately priced 30-plus saves. Keep in mind the Tigers don’t have a healthy challenger to the throne right now.

---