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March 2008 Archives
4:07 PM Fri, Mar 28, 2008 | Permalink |
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By Mike McDermott  Email
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By David Ferris
Two American League clubs are already on the board, but let's focus on the other 14 outfits, still toiling away in Florida and Arizona. There are lessons to be learned from the spring results if you look in the right areas; get out your notebook and follow along.
BATTERS
BUY
Hank Blalock, 3B, Rangers – His super camp (1.081 OPS) earned him the cleanup spot, and the runs flow freely in Texas, especially when the weather warms. Blalock's strong finish to 2007 didn’t draw a lot of attention; he’s been a bargain in most leagues this spring.
Alex Gordon, 3B, Royals – Was the second-half rally something we can get behind? The spring results give a thumbs up: Gordon’s got a solid .308 average and .438 on-base percentage this month, with 11 walks against nine strikeouts. This might be the last draft season where you can land him at a reasonable price.
Gerald Laird, C, Rangers – He’s not going to make anyone forget Pudge Rodriguez, but Laird has swung a big stick all month (.311, four homers), and Jarrod Saltamacchia now toils at Triple-A. Don’t be surprised if we see 15 homers and 70 RBIs from Laird.
SELL
Brandon Wood, 3B, Angels – Do the Halos overrate their prospects, or simply fail to develop them? Wood hasn’t hit much this month, that’s for sure: .135 average, 21 strikeouts, zero walks.
Richie Sexson, 1B, Mariners – You can give him a mulligan all you want for 2007, but we saw too many inside fastballs get by him last year, and things haven’t been different in camp (.379 slugging percentage, 18 strikeouts in 58 at-bats).
HOLD
Vladimir Guerrero, OF, Angels – Sore elbow, huh? A.L. pitchers don’t believe it. Vlad’s doing his normal thing this spring, hobbling around like Fred G. Sanford but mashing anyway (.326, four homers, 16 RBIs in just 47 at-bats).
Carlos Gomez, OF, Twins – Don’t worry too much about the sore hamstring of the last few days; Go-Go Gomez already has the center-field job sewn up. His 11 steals in the spring have fantasy owners dreaming about 40-50 bags when the bell rings.
PITCHERS
BUY
Felix Hernandez, SP, Mariners – Look past the ERA and the homers allowed (six); we see two walks against 19 strikeouts and conclude King Felix is putting a few things together. Of course, we’d also like to see him take some old Seattle pitching advice – "smoke him inside" was the catchphrase of the old Pilots – but one step at a time. With some trepidation, put us down for the extra buck here. (Fantasy rule of thumb – if you look at just two things from a pitcher in March, let it be walks and strikeouts.)
Denny Bautista/Aquilino Lopez, RPs, Tigers – Jim Leyland desperately needs a second option in his bullpen with Fernando Rodney and Joel Zumaya hurt, so get these guys on your radar. Both are off strong camps: Bautista has a 1.42 ERA with 12 strikeouts against three walks, while Lopez is at 1.32 with three walks and 15 whiffs. Lopez isn’t a complete stranger to ninth-inning and inner-city pressure – he saved 14 games as a rookie with the Blue Jays in 2003 – but it looks like Bautista starts the year higher on Leyland’s pecking order. Bottom line, be aware of both guys here.
SELL
Kason Gabbard, SP, Rangers – The club says his poor spring hasn’t cost him a rotation spot; good news for hitters all through the American League. Gabbard has allowed 28 hits over 16.2 Cactus League innings, along with 10 walks against just nine strikeouts. If he brings that act to Arlington, hide the women and children.
Dontrelle Willis, SP, Tigers – So what if he’s tied to a better offense and defense this time around? Florida hitters have owned him for the last four weeks (8.64 ERA, 15 walks, 12 strikeouts), underscoring that D-Train’s mechanical bugs won’t be worked out overnight.
Troy Percival, RP, Rays – He was having a fine spring until a seven-spot reared its head last week, but mostly we’re bearish because we can’t imagine Percival staying intact through six months of high-leverage innings. Joe Maddon has several other choices at his disposal, starting with Dan Wheeler.
A.J. Burnett, SP, Blue Jays – His curveball didn’t come out until a few days ago, and batters had no problem digging in all month (23 hits over 18.1 innings; nine walks against just eight strikeouts). We need to see some proof that Burnett is over last year’s shoulder problems before we get invested.
HOLD
Javier Vazquez, SP, White Sox – It’s our nature to be skeptical on any pitcher who spiked like Vazquez did in 2007, but a tidy spring (four walks, 22 strikeouts over 17.2 innings) buys some cred. Maybe Vazquez has finally found a home in the Second City.
3:35 PM Fri, Mar 28, 2008 | Permalink |
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By Mike McDermott Email
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By Rob Steingall
These recommendations are only for March 31 through April 6 unless otherwise suggested.
AMERICAN LEAGUE
Put’em in
Billy Butler, 1B/DH, Royals: Hitting in the middle of an underrated lineup, Butler should be a solid fantasy contributor this season. Hitting well over .300 this spring with a handful of bombs, he oozes fantasy potential at the tender age of 21.
Rich Harden, SP, A’s: Healthy and dominant this spring, Fragile Rich was a late-round bargain on draft day. His first outing against the Red Sox was outstanding (6 innings, 1 run, 3 hits, 3 walks, 9 Ks); just hope he doesn’t get injured on the flight home from Japan. He’s special when healthy.
Bench ‘em
Jacoby Ellsbury, OF, Red Sox: Barely hit over the Mendoza line this spring, and split the first two games in Japan with Coco Crisp. Terry Francona is also batting him eighth to “ease the adjustment” despite Ellsbury leading off during 2007’s championship run.
Ryan Garko, 1B, Indians: Coming off a breakout ’07 campaign, Garko has been slow to get the bat going this spring, with an average in the low .200s. Former top prospect Andy Marte showed serious power this spring and saw time at first, signaling he occasionally may play at Garko’s expense.
NATIONAL LEAGUE
Put’em in
Lastings Milledge, OF, Nationals: Finally getting a chance to play every day, Milledge should thrive batting second in a much improved Washington lineup. He’s shown his five-tool talent this spring, providing a late-round bargain in fantasy drafts. He’ll be playing with a chip on his shoulder this season after being dumped by the Mets.
Eugenio Velez, 2B, Giants: His role dramatically increases now that Kevin Frandsen is out for the year with a ruptured Achilles. He stole 58 bases at various levels last season and double digits in Cactus League games this spring. He could carry you in that category early on.
Bench ‘em
Carlos Delgado, 1B, Mets: Slowed by an ailing hip, Delgado enters the season with limited work at the plate and memories of a forgettable ’07. Last April, he hit .188 with one homer. His age and health raise enough red flags to employ a wait-and-see approach.
Jeremy Hermida, OF, Marlins: A nagging hamstring injury lands him on the DL at least the first four games. While his .295 batting average, 18 home runs and 63 runs batted in last season show serious upside, he’s never been quick to recover from injury.
3:35 PM Thu, Mar 27, 2008 | Permalink |
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By David Ferris
Sure, plenty of misleading signs can come from spring training, but we’re not doing our job if we don’t try to pick through the Florida and Arizona numbers, searching for something of value. Get on your prospecting hat and let’s try to separate the gems from the rubble.
BATTERS
BUY
Andre Ethier, OF, Dodgers – He’s got batting-title upside if the Dodgers would merely make a spot for him (easier said than done; no one wants to take Juan Pierre’s bloated contract). Ethier’s having an electric camp, with a .488 average, six homers, and 13 walks against just three strikeouts. Lefties don’t faze him, and he’s capable of hitting just about any pitch. Here’s a spot where we invest in the skill and worry about the role later.
Eugenio Velez, 2B, Giants – He rolled up 58 steals in three different stops last year, and he’ll be needed to play by the bay, where Kevin Fransden has a serious injury (Achilles) and Omar Vizquel has a minor one (knee). Velez won’t excite anyone with his bat, but there’s a monstrous steal upside if the Giants let him play even three to four times a week. A shame he can’t take his Cactus League stats with him – he’s got 14 bags this month.
SELL
Matt Kemp, OF, Dodgers – He’s as trendy as it gets in the NL outfield, and with just reason (.318 spring, 18 RBIs), but don’t miss the fact that he’s also got 15 strikeouts against just one walk, and Joe Torre might use him in the bottom third of the order to begin the year. In a vacuum we like Kemp, but it might be hard to make a profit on him for 2008 – too many people in the room are mad for him.
HOLD
Rickie Weeks, 2B, Brewers – Full disclosure, he’s been a pet player in this space for a while, but we need to note that he’s had a miserable month: sore hand, a pile of strikeouts (25), not many walks (two). But if Weeks can stay on the field for 125 games or more, we still expect a 20-30 season. Maybe you don’t want to go plus-one on Weeks right now, but don’t let someone steal him for under market value.
PITCHERS
BUY
Brian Wilson, RP, Giants – The big knock on him as a potential closer was the control issue, but he made strides on that late in 2007, and it’s carried over into this month (one walk in 10.2 innings, along with 11 strikeouts). Bruce Bochy committed the ninth inning to Wilson very early in camp, and even if the Giants win less than 70 games, they’ll be able to support a 30-save closer.
SELL
Franklin Morales, SP, Rockies – It’s been a messy month for the young lefty (6.65 ERA, 1.80 ratio, 10 walks and four homers over 21 innings), and even as he starts the year as Colorado’s No. 5 starter, there’s a good chance he’ll be in Triple-A at some point in the first half. Let the images from late 2007 go – there are growing pains ahead.
Barry Zito, SP, Giants – His first go-round in San Francisco was mediocre (4.53 ERA, 1.35 ratio), and his fastball is topping out around 84 this spring. That’s how you allow 24 runs in 25 spring innings, kids, and keep in mind he’s supported by perhaps the worst offense in the National League. When Zito’s name comes up at the auction, you have our permission to leave the room. On second thought, consider that a mandate; Planet Zito isn’t a safe place for fantasy owners any longer.
Homer Bailey, SP, Reds – He was a hot name at this time last year, but for most of this month he’s been pitching like a barfly at Moe’s Tavern; if you have to invest in a young Cincinnati arm, go get Johnny Cueto or Edinson Volquez. Bailey’s had trouble with his control in camp (16 walks in 19 innings), and when he’s in the zone hitters are teeing off (24 hits, 12 runs). Doh!
HOLD
Cla Meredith, RP, Padres – He came to camp with something to prove after a step back in 2007, and so far, so good (one earned run over nine innings, two walks, 15 strikeouts). You could do a lot worse for your final bullpen slot in NL-only.
9:36 AM Thu, Mar 27, 2008 | Permalink |
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By Mike McDermott Email
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By Michael Salfino
Each year, if you rank major-league teams by the 10 most common fantasy baseball categories, you separate real-life losers from winners.
So a case can be made that average fantasy prices can be converted to actual value.
Armed with average fantasy prices in hundreds of leagues courtesy of our friends at FantasyAuctioneer.com, let’s see how Average Joes value major leaguers compared to the GMs who actually get paid for the privilege.
For clarity’s sake, we’ll convert fantasy prices into major-league equivalent salaries. The translation is based on the percentages each group of owners paid out of their respective salary pools ($3,120 for fantasy leaguers and about $2.7 billion in 2007 for real GMs).
The average fantasy owner in a 12-team, mixed (AL and NL) league paid the major-league equivalent of $41.7 million for Alex Rodriguez.
Following him, in order (and in millions), are Jose Reyes ($36.5), David Wright ($36.5), Matt Holliday ($35.6), Hanley Ramirez ($35.6), Miguel Cabrera ($33.9), Johan Santana ($33), Ryan Howard ($32.2), Chase Utley ($32.2) and Jimmy Rollins ($32.2).
Let’s look at the major free agent signings this offseason and see if our Joes give the real-life GMs a thumbs up or down.
The Red Sox gave Mike Lowell an average of $12.5 million over three years. Joes say he’s worth $13.03 million in 2008.
The Royals paid Jose Guillen a three-year average of $12 million. Joes, on average, spend $10.4 million, but they’re worried about losing 13 games to a steroids suspension that may yet be overturned.
The Mariners gave pitcher Carlos Silva $12 million on average over four years. Mixed leaguers left him on the waiver wire. But fantasy leaguers in 12-team leagues that draft only American League players can better relate Silva’s value. They went to a whopping $2 (of their $260 team budget), or about $1.74 million of real-world-equivalent money. Joes say, “Thumbs down, way down,” to Silva.
The biggest deal of the offseason (after A-Rod) was signed by Torii Hunter, now of the Angels ($18 million per for five years). That’s exactly what those playing in mixed leagues think he’s worth. AL-only players average about $22.6 million, but likely significantly less by the time his real-world deal expires.
Let’s look at some other average fantasy prices in making the following recommendations.
Buy
Brian McCann, C, Braves: He’s going for $13 in most fantasy leagues despite being 24 and having knocked in 90-plus runs two years straight while toiling behind the dish. It’s doubtful his rate of homers on flyballs peaked at age 22. If he matches that again, he smacks 25 round-trippers in ’08. Why can’t he beat it?
Nick Swisher, 1B/OF, White Sox. He hit 35 homers in 2006. Last year, he still put 14 over the wall on the road. Since U.S. Cellular inflates homers more than Coors, 30 homers is the floor, 35 the projection and 40-plus a reasonable hope. He’s also 27 years old, when most hitters peak.
Travis Hafner, DH, Indians: Sometimes a bad year is just that, and not a trend. Suddenly, Pronk has “old-guy skills.” So the stat guys have bailed. They’ll regret it. I see a bounce back because he was just too good for too long and is still too young to be done.
Lastings Milledge, OF, Nationals: He’s having a good spring and projects to 20/20 in homers/steals. There’s a reasonable chance he can hit .300, too. But his max-effort swing argues against a high average in the near term. I’m told the new home digs will still play for pitchers.
Hold
Clay Buchholz, P, Red Sox: Savvy drafters root for springs like this. Bartolo Colon might serve as fifth starter while Buchholz takes a regular turn in Triple A. That lasts until June 1 at the outside. When Buchholz ultimately is inserted in the Red Sox rotation, he will pitch well. Pay the $3 and stash him on your reserves.
Evan Longoria, 3B, Rays: He’s been sent down already as the Rays try to save a few bucks by delaying free agency for a year way down the road. That’s way too cute, but now you can get him as a Mixed League reserve.
Sell
Felix Hernandez, P, Mariners: Friend and colleague Gene McCaffrey (WiseGuyBaseball.com) has bailed. I’m inclined to agree, recognizing as he does that this is a make-or-break year for greatness from Hernandez and he definitely might make it. But Queen Felix refuses to battle for the inside half of the plate, as most great ones do quite fiercefully.
Jonathan Papelbon, P, Red Sox: He’s costing a relative fortune ($23). You need closers with fleas in fantasy. So look instead for weak guys on good teams: Trevor Hoffman, Joe Borowski, Todd Jones.
Juan Pierre, OF, Dodgers: I’ll believe he’s really benched when I see it. But he should be (in favor of Andre Ethier). Even if he was starting, $18 is crazy considering the zero power.
Ryan Howard, 1B, Phillies: Sorry, I don’t pay top dollar for a guy who strikes out 200 times (OK, 199). That means batting average is always at risk. Why not take Carlos Pena (just 18 months older) for half the money after Pena smacked 47 homers last year. Pena blasted 45 bombs in 640 at bats in 2005 and 2006.
9:34 AM Thu, Mar 27, 2008 | Permalink |
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By David Ferris
All rankings assume 5x5 format (average, runs, homers, RBI, stolen bases).
* = check status
Last Updated: 3/25
Next Update: 4/1
First Base/DH
1. Prince Fielder, Brewers
NOTE: Newest vegan a can't-miss ticket.
2. Ryan Howard, Phillies
3. Albert Pujols, Cardinals
4. David Ortiz, Red Sox
5. Mark Teixeira, Braves
6. Adrian Gonzalez, Padres
7. Lance Berkman, Astros
8. Justin Morneau, Twins
9. Carlos Guillen, Tigers
NOTE: Skilled craftsman an injury risk.
10. Carlos Pena, Rays
11. Derrek Lee, Cubs
12. Travis Hafner, Indians
13. Paul Konerko, White Sox
14. Gary Sheffield, Tigers
15. Carlos Delgado, Mets
16. Jim Thome, White Sox
17. Ryan Garko, Indians
18. James Loney, Dodgers
NOTE: He can keep the September power.
19. Billy Butler, Royals
20. Todd Helton, Rockies
21. Kevin Youkilis, Red Sox
22. Adam LaRoche, Pirates
23. Conor Jackson, Diamondbacks
24. Frank Thomas, Blue Jays
25. Casey Kotchman, Angels
26. Richie Sexson, Mariners
27. Joey Votto, Reds
28. Mike Jacobs, Marlins
29. *Daric Barton, Athletics
30. Jason Giambi, Yankees
31. Lyle Overbay, Blue Jays
31. Nick Johnson, Nationals
NOTE: Probably ahead of Young at this point.
33. Kevin Millar, Orioles
34. Jose Vidro, Mariners
35. Shelly Duncan, Yankees
36. Dan Ortmeier, Giants
37. Ben Broussard, Rangers
38. Marcus Thames, Tigers
39. Ross Gload, Royals
40. Dmitri Young, Nationals
Second Base
1. Chase Utley, Phillies
2. Brandon Phillips, Reds
NOTE: Plenty of pop, electric on bases.
3. Robinson Cano, Yankees
4. Brian Roberts, Orioles
5. Ian Kinsler, Rangers
6. Rickie Weeks, Brewers
7. Howie Kendrick, Angels
8. Aaron Hill, Blue Jays
9. Placido Polanco, Tigers
10. Dan Uggla, Marlins
11. Dustin Pedroia, Red Sox
12. Mark Ellis, Athletics
13. Orlando Hudson, Diamondbacks
NOTE: A shame his defense doesn't help you.
14. Asdrubal Cabrera, Indians
15. Kelly Johnson, Braves
16. *Freddy Sanchez, Pirates
17. Ryan Theriot, Cubs
18. *Jeff Kent, Dodgers
NOTE: Beware the cliff season.
19. Luis Castillo, Mets
20. Jose Lopez, Mariners
21. Jayson Nix, Rockies
22. Kaz Matsui, Astros
23. Brendan Harris, Twins
24. *Ray Durham, Giants
25. Erick Aybar, Angels
36. Mark DeRosa, Cubs
27. Ronnie Belliard, Nationals
28. Tad Iguchi, Padres
29. Adam Kennedy, Cardinals
30. Kevin Frandsen, Giants
Shortstop
1. Jose Reyes, Mets
2. Hanley Ramirez, Marlins
3. Jimmy Rollins, Phillies
4. Troy Tulowitzki, Rockies
5. Derek Jeter, Yankees
6. Rafael Furcal, Dodgers
7. Michael Young, Rangers
8. Orlando Cabrera, White Sox
9. Miguel Tejada, Astros
NOTE: Risk/reward play, but park and lineup help.
10. Jhonny Peralta, Indians
11. Edgar Renteria, Tigers
12. Khalil Greene, Padres
13. J.J. Hardy, Brewers
14. Jason Bartlett, Rays
NOTE: Speed under market value.
15. Julio Lugo, Red Sox
16. Yunel Escobar, Braves
NOTE: Hits will come, but will other categories?
17. Stephen Drew, Diamondbacks
18. Yuniesky Betancourt, Mariners
19. Jack Wilson, Pirates
20. Jeff Keppinger, Reds
21. Felipe Lopez, Nationals
22. David Eckstein, Blue Jays
23. *Bobby Crosby, Athletics
24. Tony Pena, Royals
25. Cesar Izturis, Cardinals
26. Adam Everett, Twins
27. *Omar Vizquel, Giants
28. Luis Hernandez, Orioles
29. Cristian Guzman, Nationals
30. *Alex Gonzalez, Reds
Third Base
1. Alex Rodriguez, Yankees
2. David Wright, Mets
3. Miguel Cabrera, Tigers
4. Ryan Braun, Brewers
5. Aramis Ramirez, Cubs
6. Garrett Atkins, Rockies
NOTE: A safe and affordable play.
7. Ryan Zimmerman, Nationals
8. Chone Figgins, Angels
9. Chipper Jones, Braves
10. *Adrian Beltre, Mariners
NOTE: Admits he's not 100 percent.
11. Mike Lowell, Red Sox
12. Hank Blalock, Rangers
13. Kevin Kouzmanoff, Padres
14. Edwin Encarnacion, Reds
15. Alex Gordon, Royals
16. Ty Wigginton, Astros
NOTE: Two positions, always a plus.
17. Akinori Iwamura, Rays
18. *Scott Rolen, Blue Jays
19. Pedro Feliz, Phillies
20. Mark Reynolds, Diamondbacks
21. Troy Glaus, Cardinals
22. Casey Blake, Indians
23. *Josh Fields, White Sox
24. Melvin Mora, Orioles
25. Jose Bautista, Pirates
26. Mike Lamb, Twins
27. Joe Crede, White Sox
28. Jorge Cantu, Marlins
29. *Eric Chavez, Athletics
30. Nomar Garciaparra, Dodgers
Outfield
1. Matt Holliday, Rockies
2. Carl Crawford, Rays
3. Grady Sizemore, Indians
4. Carlos Lee, Astros
5. *Alfonso Soriano, Cubs
6. Vladimir Guerrero, Angels
7. Nick Markakis, Orioles
8. Ichiro Suzuki, Mariners
9. Magglio Ordonez, Tigers
10. Alex Rios, Blue Jays
11. B.J. Upton, Rays
NOTE: Even here he can earn a profit.
12. Carlos Beltran, Mets
13. Eric Byrnes, Diamondbacks
14. Manny Ramirez, Red Sox
15. Torii Hunter, Angels
16. Corey Hart, Brewers
17. Hunter Pence, Astros
18. Jeff Francoeur, Braves
NOTE: Power spike is coming soon.
19. Josh Hamilton, Rangers
NOTE: Explosive spring makes him pricey.
20. Bobby Abreu, Yankees
21. *Curtis Granderson, Tigers
22. Vernon Wells, Blue Jays
23. Adam Dunn, Reds
24. Chris Young, Diamondbacks
25. Brad Hawpe, Rockies
26. Hideki Matsui, Yankees
27. Matt Kemp, Dodgers
28. Andruw Jones, Dodgers
29. Jermaine Dye, White Sox
30. Nick Swisher, White Sox
31. Delmon Young, Twins
32. Michael Bourn, Astros
33. Jason Bay, Pirates
34. Michael Cuddyer, Twins
35. Shane Victorino, Phillies
36. Johnny Damon, Yankees
37. Josh Willingham, Marlins
38. Ken Griffey, Reds
39. Adam Jones, Orioles
40. Mark Teahen, Royals
41. Jacoby Ellsbury, Red Sox
42. Jeremy Hermida, Marlins
43. Raul Ibanez, Mariners
44. Willy Taveras, Rockies
45. *Mike Cameron, Brewers
46. Pat Burrell, Phillies
47. Jose Guillen, Royals
48. Lastings Milledge, Nationals
49. Melky Cabrera, Yankees
50. Nate McLouth, Pirates
NOTE: Has 20-30 upside if Bucs play him.
51. Bill Hall, Brewers
52. Kosuke Fukudome, Cubs
53. Aaron Rowand, Giants
54. David DeJesus, Royals
55. Corey Patterson, Reds
NOTE: When he's on base, he runs.
56. Luke Scott, Orioles
NOTE: A cheap power source.
57. Justin Upton, Diamondbacks
58. Aubrey Huff, Orioles
59. Chris Duncan, Cardinals
60. Carlos Gomez, Twins
61. Felix Pie, Cubs
62. Rick Ankiel, Cardinals
NOTE: Could hit 32 homers, could hit 13.
63. Austin Kearns, Nationals
64. Ryan Church, Mets
65. Jason Kubel, Twins
66. Coco Crisp, Red Sox
NOTE: Probably won't end season here.
67. Matt Diaz, Braves
68. Travis Buck, Athletics
69. Andre Ethier, Dodgers
NOTE: Threatening to shove Pierre out of way.
70. Gary Matthews, Angels
71. *J.D. Drew, Red Sox
72. Juan Pierre, Dodgers
73. Milton Bradley, Rangers
74. Jack Cust, Athletics
75. Scott Hairston, Padres
76. Randy Winn, Giants
77. Carlos Quentin, White Sox
78. Franklin Gutierrez, Indians
79. Garret Anderson, Angels
80. *Moises Alou, Mets
81. Frank Catalanotto, Rangers
82. Elijah Dukes, Nationals
83. Jonny Gomes, Rays
NOTE: No glove, streaky bat.
84. Jacque Jones, Tigers
85. Geoff Jenkins, Phillies
86. Cliff Floyd, Rays
87. Joey Gathright, Royals
88. Ryan Freel, Reds
89. Dave Roberts, Giants
90. Brian Giles, Padres
91. *Jim Edmonds, Padres
92. Barry Bonds, Free Agent
93. Jayson Werth, Phillies
94. David Dellucci, Indians
95. *Wily Mo Pena, Nationals
96. Jerry Owens, White Sox
97. Xavier Nady, Pirates
98. Brad Wilkerson, Mariners
Catcher
1. Victor Martinez, Indians
2. Russell Martin, Dodgers
3. Brian McCann, Braves
NOTE: Best value of the Top 5.
4. Joe Mauer, Twins
5. Jorge Posada, Yankees
6. Kenji Johjima, Mariners
NOTE: Best second-tier value.
7. Bengie Molina, Giants
8. A.J. Pierzynski, White Sox
9. Ivan Rodriguez, Tigers
10. Jason Varitek, Red Sox
11. Ramon Hernandez, Orioles
12. Geovany Soto, Cubs
13. J.R. Towles, Astros
NOTE: Has talent but not ideal batting slot.
14. Mike Napoli, Angels
15. Chris Snyder, Diamondbacks
16. Dioner Navarro, Rays
17. Carlos Ruiz, Phillies
18. Josh Bard, Padres
19. Ronny Paulino, Pirates
20. Yorvit Torrealba, Rockies
21. Kurt Suzuki, Athletics
22. Ryan Doumit, Pirates
23. Gerald Laird, Rangers
24. Yadier Molina, Cardinals
25. *Jarrod Saltalamacchia, Rangers
NOTE: Ticketed for minors?
26. Dave Ross, Reds
27. Paul Lo Duca, Nationals
28. John Buck, Royals
29. Gregg Zaun, Blue Jays
30. Miguel Olivo, Royals
31. Chris Iannetta, Rockies
32. Kelly Shoppach, Indians
33. Johnny Estrada, Nationals
34. Brian Schneider, Mets
35. Jason Kendall, Brewers
36. Miguel Montero, Diamondbacks
9:33 AM Thu, Mar 27, 2008 | Permalink |
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By Mike McDermott Email
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By David Ferris
All rankings assume 5x5 format (wins, saves, strikeouts, ERA, ratio).
* = check status
Last Updated: 3/25
Next Updated: 4/1
Starting Pitchers
1. Johan Santana, Mets
NOTE: An outrageous year may be coming.
2. Jake Peavy, Padres
3. Erik Bedard, Mariners
4. Brandon Webb, Diamondbacks
5. C.C. Sabathia, Indians
6. Cole Hamels, Phillies
7. Justin Verlander, Tigers
8. Dan Haren, Diamondbacks
9. *Josh Beckett, Red Sox
10. Aaron Harang, Reds
11. John Maine, Mets
12. Daisuke Matsuzaka, Red Sox
13. Tim Lincecum, Giants
14. *John Smoltz, Braves
15. Felix Hernandez, Mariners
16. Chris Young, Padres
NOTE: Does he have stamina to be elite?
17. Roy Oswalt, Astros
18. Javier Vazquez, White Sox
19. Adam Wainwright, Cardinals
NOTE: A most-affordable potential ace.
20. Carlos Zambrano, Cubs
21. James Shields, Rays
22. Ian Snell, Pirates
23. *John Lackey, Angels
24. *Scott Kazmir, Rays
25. Matt Cain, Giants
26. Fausto Carmona, Indians
27. Rich Hill, Cubs
NOTE: Messy spring, but 2007 buys cred.
28. Dustin McGowan, Blue Jays
29. Pedro Martinez, Mets
30. *Francisco Liriano, Twins
NOTE: Excellent last start, but minors tune-up?
31. Ted Lilly, Cubs
32. Roy Halladay, Blue Jays
33. Bronson Arroyo, Reds
34. Jered Weaver, Angels
35. A.J. Burnett, Blue Jays
36. Brad Penny, Dodgers
37. Jeff Francis, Rockies
38. *Yovani Gallardo, Brewers
39. Tim Hudson, Braves
40. Brett Myers, Phillies
41. Derek Lowe, Dodgers
42. Chad Billingsley, Dodgers
NOTE: How soon is now?
43. Ben Sheets, Brewers
NOTE: Several times bitten, now shy.
44. Oliver Perez, Mets
45. Chien-Ming Wang, Yankees
46. Zack Greinke, Royals
47. Jeremy Bonderman, Tigers
48. Gil Meche, Royals
49. Phil Hughes, Yankees
50. Scott Baker, Twins
51. Clay Buchholz, Red Sox
52. Kelvim Escobar, Angels
53. Joe Blanton, Athletics
54. *Andy Pettitte, Yankees
55. Tom Gorzelanny, Pirates
56. Hiroki Kuroda, Dodgers
57. Matt Garza, Rays
58. Jon Garland, Angels
NOTE: Well-positioned for quiet step forward.
59. Dontrelle Willis, Tigers
60. Greg Maddux, Padres
61. Boof Bonser, Twins
62. Andy Sonnanstine, Rays
63. Ubaldo Jimenez, Rockies
64. Shaun Marcum, Blue Jays
65. Randy Johnson, Diamondbacks
66. Kevin Slowey, Twins
67. Rich Harden, Athletics
68. Jake Westbrook, Indians
69. Jonathan Sanchez, Giants
70. Mark Buehrle, White Sox
71. *Shawn Hill, Senators
72. Wandy Rodriguez, Astros
NOTE: Need to do it on the road.
73. Randy Wolf, Padres
74. Ian Kennedy, Yankees
75. Micah Owings, Diamondbacks
76. Jeremy Guthrie, Orioles
77. Kevin Correia, Giants
78. Scott Olsen, Marlins
79. Doug Davis, Diamondbacks
80. Mark Prior, Padres
81. Brian Bannister, Royals
82. Jon Lester, Red Sox
83. Daniel Cabrera, Orioles
84. Justin Duchscherer, Athletics
85. Nate Robertson, Tigers
86. *Tim Redding, Senators
87. Kenny Rogers, Tigers
88. Tom Glavine, Braves
89. Barry Zito, Giants
NOTE: Forget overpaying, why bid?
90. *Chad Gaudin, Athletics
91. Andrew Miller, Marlins
92. Johnny Cueto, Reds
NOTE: America's next hot model.
93. Chris Sampson, Astros
94. Edinson Volquez, Reds
95. Joel Pineiro, Cardinals
96. Jason Bergmann, Senators
97. Jarrod Washburn, Mariners
98. Kyle Kendrick, Phillies
99. Tim Wakefield, Red Sox
100. Orlando Hernandez, Mets
101. David Bush, Brewers
102. Kyle Lohse, Cardinals
103. Garrett Olson, Orioles
104. John Danks, White Sox
105. Jair Jurrjens, Braves
106. Anthony Reyes, Cardinals
107. Brandon Backe, Astros
108. Paul Maholm, Pirates
109. Jose Contreras, White Sox
110. Shawn Chacon, Astros
111. Joe Saunders, Angels
112. Adam Loewen, Orioles
113. Aaron Cook, Rockies
114. Jeff Suppan, Brewers
115. Cliff Lee, Indians
NOTE: Sticks as No. 5 man.
116. Homer Bailey, Reds
117. Miguel Batista, Mariners
118. Jon Lieber, Cubs
119. Ervin Santana, Angels
120. *Chuck James, Braves
121. Zach Duke, Pirates
122. Carlos Villanueva, Brewers
123. Carlos Silva, Mariners
124. Manny Parra, Brewers
125. *Franklin Morales, Rockies
126. Ryan Dempster, Cubs
127. Dana Eveland, Athletics
128. Justin Germano, Padres
Relief Pitchers
1. Jonathan Papelbon, Red Sox
2. J.J. Putz, Mariners
3. Mariano Rivera, Yankees
4. Billy Wagner, Mets
5. Joe Nathan, Twins
NOTE: Signed, sealed, delivered.
6. Francisco Rodriguez, Angels
7. Takashi Saito, Dodgers
8. Matt Capps, Pirates
NOTE: Very safe value play.
9. Jose Valverde, Astros
10. Bobby Jenks, White Sox
11. Manuel Corpas, Rockies
12. Francisco Cordero, Reds
13. Joakim Soria, Royals
NOTE: See Matt Capps.
14. *Rafael Soriano, Braves
15. Huston Street, Athletics
16. *Brad Lidge, Phillies
17. Todd Jones, Tigers
18. Chad Cordero, Senators
19. Jason Isringhausen, Cardinals
20. Trevor Hoffman, Padres
21. Joe Borowski, Indians
22. Brian Wilson, Giants
23. Kevin Gregg, Marlins
24. George Sherrill, Orioles
25. C.J. Wilson, Rangers
26. Kerry Wood, Cubs
NOTE: Safest place to use him - closing.
27. Eric Gagne, Brewers
NOTE: Velocity down all spring.
28. Brandon Lyon, Diamondbacks
29. Troy Percival, Rays
NOTE: Don't pay for six months of saves.
30. Jeremy Accardo, Blue Jays
NOTE: Chairman for now with Ryan nicked.
31. Jonathan Broxton, Dodgers
32. *B.J. Ryan, Blue Jays
33. Carlos Marmol, Cubs
34. Heath Bell, Padres
35. Tom Gordon, Phillies
36. Joba Chamberlain, Yankees
37. Rafael Betancourt, Indians
38. Chad Qualls, Diamondbacks
39. Tony Pena, Diamondbacks
40. Joaquin Benoit, Rangers
41. David Riske, Brewers
42. Pat Neshek, Twins
NOTE: Take down a notch with Nathan contract.
43. Alan Embree, Athletics
44. Dan Wheeler, Rays
NOTE: The first hedge against Percival.
45. Aaron Heilman, Mets
46. Jon Rauch, Senators
47. Hideki Okajima, Red Sox
48. Bob Howry, Cubs
49. Scot Shields, Angels
50. Derrick Turnbow, Brewers
51. Matt Lindstrom, Marlins
NOTE: Second in command after Gregg.
52. Luis Ayala, Senators
53. Jamie Walker, Orioles
54. Peter Moylan, Braves
55. James Hoey, Orioles
56. Jason Frasor, Blue Jays
57. Damaso Marte, Pirates
58. Al Reyes, Rays
59. Brian Fuentes, Rockies
60. Octavio Dotel, White Sox
61. Brad Hennessey, Giants
62. Mike Wuertz, Cubs
NOTE: A sleeper saves candidate if he's moved.
63. Chad Bradford, Orioles
64. Pedro Feliciano, Mets
65. Cla Meredith, Padres
66. Scott Linebrink, White Sox
67. Matt Guerrier, Twins
68. Masahide Kobayashi, Indians
69. Eddie Guardado, Rangers
70. Juan Cruz, Diamondbacks
71. Joel Peralta, Royals
72. Taylor Tankersley, Marlins
73. Scott Downs, Blue Jays
74. Santiago Casilla, Athletics
75. Chris Schroder, Senators
76. Jensen Lewis, Indians
77. Manny Delcarmen, Red Sox
78. Jesse Crain, Twins
79. Patrick Misch, Giants
80. Julian Tavarez, Red Sox
81. *Fernando Rodney, Tigers
82. Rafael Perez, Indians
83. Bill Bray, Reds
84. Keith Foulke, Athletics
85. Brandon League, Blue Jays
86. Ryan Madson, Phillies
87. David Weathers, Reds
88. Byung-Hyun Kim, Pirates
NOTE: Better suited for relief work.
10:01 AM Mon, Mar 24, 2008 | Permalink |
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By Mike McDermott Email
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By David Ferris
Numbers and skills are a large part of the fantasy equation, but a player’s environment can’t be ignored. Home parks, blocked positions, managerial tendencies and many other factors have to be considered as we decide who the bears and bulls are. Keep that theme in mind as we peruse the latest American League shopping list.
Batters
BUY
Josh Hamilton, OF, Rangers – I was a little skeptical when the Reds moved him so cheaply over the winter, but Hamilton’s electric spring has quickly erased any doubt. Last year was a tidy step forward, but Hamilton has the look of a breakthrough star in 2008. It wouldn’t shock me to see .290-100-30-100 go up on the board.
SELL
Richie Sexson, 1B, Mariners – He couldn’t turn on inside fastballs last year, and this spring he’s having trouble with a sore shoulder. Sexson’s too young to be ready for the scrap heap, on paper, but the trends of 2007 have me unwilling to bid. Power generally costs too much at the draft table anyway, and Sexson has two other red flags on his file (no speed; batting average risk).
Jonny Gomes, OF/DH, Rays – He’s in an 0-for-18 skid and he’s never been reliable with the glove, which means the Rays might be adding a veteran outfielder between now and the start of the year.
HOLD
Jarrod Saltamacchia, C, Rangers – He isn’t guaranteed a roster spot yet, though the three-run homer he jacked on Thursday certainly didn’t hurt the cause. The upside of Salty is so great – especially in the Arlington Undertow – that I’m content to hold a spot for him until the Rangers tip their hand, even in mixed groups.
Coco Crisp, OF, Red Sox – He’s nicked up right now and probably not starting; that’s fine. But Crisp still has the skills of a $15-to-$20 player in the right situation, and there’s a fair chance he won’t be in Boston by the middle of the summer. In deeper groups where you need an upside play for your bench, don’t forget the Crisp we saw in Cleveland.
Josh Fields, 3B, White Sox – He might have to go to Triple-A if the Pale Hose can’t find a buyer for Joe Crede, but there’s 30-homer potential in this bat and it’s only a matter of time before Chicago has room for him. Here’s another spot where I’m inclined to wait it out.
Pitchers
BUY
Kevin Slowey, SP, Twins – We’ve seen three good turns in a row after a messy spring debut, which means we can feel good about a bid for Brad Radke 2.0 this time around. The back end of the Minnesota rotation has plenty of intriguing values: Scott Baker is a nice upside play, and Boof Bonser has the stuff to be fantasy-worthy in all formats.
George Sherrill, RP, Orioles – He’s landed the closer spot in Baltimore, and don’t let the mediocre club throw you – even losing teams can support 30 saves or so from their stopper. Sherrill doesn’t have dominant stuff but he’s certainly got enough in his left arm to take the job and run with it.
Kaz Fukumori, RP, Rangers – You can say something about every reliever ahead of him on the depth chart, so why not spend a buck on Fukumori, who at least offers the upside of the unknown? Fukumori had elbow surgery last summer but it hasn’t been an issue at all this month. The Rangers may have found a pleasant surprise here.
SELL
Joba Chamberlain, RP, Yankees – The electric arm is no joke – you don’t go to the restroom or the hot-dog stand when this power righty is on the mound. But Chamberlain’s fantasy value in the bullpen is far less than what we’d get if he was taking a turn every five days. I still love the player, but I can’t bid too much given what the current role is.
HOLD
Justin Verlander, SP, Tigers – He’s got the head and the raw stuff to be a Cy Young contender, not to mention a reasonable park to work in and a healthy offense supporting him. Verlander won’t be cheap on draft day, but if there’s any AL righty to bid the extra buck or two on, here’s the guy. Upside: 20 wins, 215 strikeouts.
10:43 AM Fri, Mar 21, 2008 | Permalink |
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By Mike McDermott Email
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By David Ferris
A Final Four trip might be acceptable in some other sports, but in fantasy baseball, the season only becomes a success when you’re getting a Yoo-Hoo shower in October. Here’s a current buying guide to keep you on course.
BATTERS
BUY
Lastings Milledge, OF, Nationals – The new club is letting him run as he pleases this spring, and there’s a good chance he’ll open the year hitting second. Can you say “Post-Hype Sleeper?” Sure you can.
Nate McLouth, OF, Pirates – He’s having a solid camp (.359, three steals), and while he hasn’t dispatched Nyjer Morgan yet in the battle for the center-field job, it’s just a matter of time. Keep in mind McLouth rolled up 13 homers and 22 steals in 329 at-bats when most weren’t paying attention last year, the joy of a small-market screen.
SELL
Carlos Beltran, OF, Mets – Now in his 30s, you have to wonder how much longer he’ll be interested in paying the physical price that comes with stealing bases. And let’s not forget that he had knee surgery in the offseason. Beltran is still a heckuva player with a bat in his hands, but don’t make any heavy assumptions on the bag count when you’re valuating him this month.
Juan Pierre, OF, Dodgers – He’ll never help you in the power categories, and he won’t help you much from the bench if Andre Ethier and others cut into his playing time. Ethier has been a frozen-rope machine this month while Pierre is struggling, and don’t forget that they’re playing for a new skipper. You can find your stolen bases elsewhere – you don’t need a one-trick pony like Pierre.
HOLD
Jayson Nix, 2B, Rockies – His glove probably gives him the edge at second base for the Rockies, but he’s got enough of an offensive upside to make us interested – just make sure you’re snagging him during the endgame. Clint Hurdle’s lineup jockeying can bring a fantasy owner to tears, but if Nix gets 400 at-bats or more, we’ll make a profit here.
PITCHERS
BUY
Matt Cain, SP, Giants – He’ll be cheaper than teammate Tim Lincecum, in part because fantasy owners will hold Cain’s crummy win total against him. But in the fantasy world it’s better to look at the other categories and let the victories sort themselves out; chase wins in March and you’ll be pulling your hair out in June. Cain might have to be Sundance to Lincecum’s Cassidy over the next few years, but he’d be a clear No. 1 on several other clubs. Enjoy a solid discount on him, at least this once.
SELL
Ryan Dempster, SP, Cubs – He’s done enough to solidify his spot in the rotation this spring, but we see too many accidents on the racing form (2001 and 2003 come to mind). There’s no need for Lou Piniella to slide Dempster back into the bullpen; the team has more than enough options there. Even if we could land Dempster for a buck, we’d pass; the more innings this wild righty gets, the more damage he can do to your ERA and ratio.
HOLD
John Smoltz, SP, Braves – Forget the age here and forget what we think we know about veteran pitchers. Smoltz has proven to be a consistent stock for two decades – he’s had what, one bad year? – and while others are scared by his oncoming 41st birthday, we’re not afraid to cut another check here. Many shook their heads when the Braves put Smoltz back into the rotation before the 2005 season, but the critics haven’t had much to say after three more elite seasons.
John Maine, SP, Mets – Stop us if you’ve heard this one before, but here’s one arm we completely believe in, a solid three-pitch guy in a big park surrounded by a contending club and offense. Maine didn’t pitch well in his first spring appearances, but he’s been mowing down hitters since. Last season wasn’t a surprise for Maine, it was the floor for what’s coming in 2008. Somehow, he’s still underrated.
11:49 AM Thu, Mar 20, 2008 | Permalink |
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By Mike McDermott Email
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By Michael Salfino
There are a bunch of topics in my inbox that don’t warrant a full column but are nonetheless interesting. Let’s do a "By The Numbers" potpourri before the season starts in earnest next week.
Friend and colleague Gene McCaffrey in his great "Wise Guy Baseball" annual went to the trouble to track the disabled list last year and writes that “at any moment 140 players were on the DL.” Put another way, about 20 percent of everyone’s roster should be expected to be sidelined due to injury. That seems high.
Some of these guys presumably were injured the prior year or in the offseason and just remained sidelined. Francisco Liriano (Tommy John surgery in 2006) and Juan Rivera, who broke his leg in winter ball after the 2006 season and missed all but 14 games, come to mind, but not too many others. McCaffrey adds that about 400 players total go on the DL each year.
The Indians and the Red Sox had the fewest DL trips last year (nine each); the A’s the most (22), followed by the Phillies (an NL-leading 19). It’s not how many guys a team loses, but the quality of the lost players and extent of the injury that most matters when assessing good or bad injury luck.
But I believe McCaffrey’s reasonably demonstrated that there's a 50-percent chance of “Player X” going on the DL this year. (Make sure to get “Player Y” instead.)
Also recently received my "Bill James Gold Mine 2008," which has the substantive yet breezy style that characterized his great Baseball Abstracts back in the 1980s.
I noted with interest his piece on quantifying consistency. The bottom line is that the average “good” hitter has a consistency score of .743, while the average “good” pitcher is .696. That’s not as big a difference as you'd suspect.
Of course, the problem is not only defining what's good, which James does convincingly with his Win Shares, but limiting your data to only good players. Aren't players who reach a significant threshold of "goodness" inherently more consistent?
Still, hitters are about 7 percent more consistent than hitters of about the same quality. That means they reasonably are worth about 7 percent more (assuming you pay for projectability). In the biggest player procurement market around, the fantasy baseball one, teams field 23 players, 14 of which are hitters. Hitting and pitching categories have equal value. Since about 61 percent of your players are hitters and they are about 7 percent more projectable, there’s a mathematical case for spending 68 percent of your fantasy baseball budget on pitching. Wouldn’t you know, that’s just about what the average fantasy owners spends on hitting. Their collective intuition appears correct.
Similarly, let’s use the wisdom of crowds to project the best hitters and pitchers of 2008. These results come courtesy of our friends at MockDraftCentral.com, which compiles data from thousands of fantasy baseball drafts.
The fantasy community says 10 of the top 12 offensive players now reside in the NL: (in order) Hanley Ramirez, David Wright, Jose Reyes, Matt Holliday, Jimmy Rollins, Chase Utley, Ryan Howard, Albert Pujols (elbow), Prince Fielder and Ryan Braun. The best overall hitter is Alex Rodriguez, with new Tiger Miguel Cabrera slotting between Rollins and Utley.
The best starter overall is the Mets' Johan Santana, with Erik Bedard, who the Mariners recently acquired, slotting well behind him as the AL’s best pitcher.
Let’s see who the fantasy market is over and undervaluing.
Buy
Rafael Furcal, SS, Dodgers: Before last year, Furcal and Jimmy Rollins were indistinguishable. Now, Rollins is first-round Fantasy Gold while Furcal slides to the fourth or fifth round. Passing on Jimmy and buying low with Furcal (they’re about the same age) is the surest way to turn a profit.
Josh Beckett, P, Red Sox: Fans are running to the hills over the bad back that will keep Beckett from making the season-opening trip to Japan. But the only difference between Beckett and more than half the pitchers is that he’s got his (seemingly minor) injury now, when the games don’t count.
Hold
Joe Mauer, C, Twins: The fantasy market decided that Mauer’s power is not coming soon and that he’s a baby when it comes to playing through the normal catcher dings and bruises. Well, he’s out of action a lot. And the homers seem unlikely given the extreme ground-ball rate that increased from 2006 to 2007 and furthermore during the second-half of ’07.
Sell
Derek Jeter, SS, Yankees: Another guy who hits too many ground balls to slug sufficiently. The magic he once worked on the bases seems diminished (15 for 23 stealing bases) and how likely is that to come back at age 34? Orlando Cabrera goes four rounds later in most drafts and is the wise play relative to cost.
Francisco Liriano, P, Twins: He’s "thicker," which is a nice way of saying "fat.” The fastball seems fatter, too. And slower. He hasn’t pitched in more than 18 months. Sadly, sometimes guys don’t come back from Tommy John surgery.
10:20 AM Wed, Mar 19, 2008 | Permalink |
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By Mike McDermott Email
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By David Ferris
All rankings assume 5x5 format (average, runs, homers, RBI, stolen bases).
* = check status
Last Updated: 3/18
Next Update: 3/25
First Base/DH
1. Prince Fielder, Brewers
2. Ryan Howard, Phillies
3. Mark Teixeira, Braves
4. Albert Pujols, Cardinals
NOTE: Solid spring eases concerns.
5. David Ortiz, Red Sox
6. Lance Berkman, Astros
7. Justin Morneau, Twins
8. Adrian Gonzalez, Padres
9. Carlos Guillen, Tigers
10. Carlos Pena, Rays
NOTE: Those pretty 2007 stats are more real than you think.
11. Travis Hafner, Indians
12. Derrek Lee, Cubs
13. Paul Konerko, White Sox
14. Carlos Delgado, Mets
15. Ryan Garko, Indians
16. Gary Sheffield, Tigers
17. Jim Thome, White Sox
18. James Loney, Dodgers
NOTE: Power came late, so pay up.
19. Billy Butler, Royals
20. Todd Helton, Rockies
21. Kevin Youkilis, Red Sox
22. Adam LaRoche, Pirates
23. Conor Jackson, Diamondbacks
24. Frank Thomas, Blue Jays
25. Casey Kotchman, Angels
NOTE: Line-drive bat but overrated for fantasy.
26. Richie Sexson, Mariners
27. Joey Votto, Reds
28. *Daric Barton, Athletics
29. Jason Giambi, Yankees
30. Nick Johnson, Nationals
31. Jose Vidro, Mariners
32. Lyle Overbay, Blue Jays
33. Mike Jacobs, Marlins
34. Kevin Millar, Orioles
35. Shelly Duncan, Yankees
36. Dan Ortmeier, Giants
37. Matt Stairs, Blue Jays
38. Ben Broussard, Rangers
39. Marcus Thames, Tigers
40. Ross Gload, Royals
41. Dmitri Young, Nationals
42. Dan Johnson, Athletics
43. Mike Sweeney, Athletics
Second Base
1. Chase Utley, Phillies
2. Brandon Phillips, Reds
3. Robinson Cano, Yankees
NOTE: Comes with New York surtax.
4. Brian Roberts, Orioles
5. Ian Kinsler, Rangers
6. Rickie Weeks, Brewers
7. Aaron Hill, Blue Jays
8. Howie Kendrick, Angels
9. Placido Polanco, Tigers
10. Dustin Pedroia, Red Sox
11. Dan Uggla, Marlins
12. Mark Ellis, Athletics
13. Orlando Hudson, Diamondbacks
14. Asdrubal Cabrera, Indians
15. Jeff Kent, Dodgers
16. Kelly Johnson, Braves
17. Freddy Sanchez, Pirates
NOTE: Pretty average, but empty columns elsewhere.
18. Ryan Theriot, Cubs
19. Luis Castillo, Mets
20. Jose Lopez, Mariners
21. Kaz Matsui, Astros
22. Jayson Nix, Rockies
23. Brendan Harris, Twins
24. Ray Durham, Giants
25. Erick Aybar, Angels
NOTE: Has wheels, but might be in time share.
26. Mark Grudzielanek, Royals
27. *Tad Iguchi, Padres
28. Adam Kennedy, Cardinals
29. Kevin Frandsen, Giants
30. Mark DeRosa, Cubs
31. Ronnie Belliard, Nationals
32. Marcus Giles, Rockies
33. Danny Richar, White Sox
34. Jorge Cantu, Marlins
Shortstop
1. Jose Reyes, Mets
2. Hanley Ramirez, Marlins
3. Jimmy Rollins, Phillies
4. Troy Tulowitzki, Rockies
5. Derek Jeter, Yankees
6. Rafael Furcal, Dodgers
7. Michael Young, Rangers
NOTE: Just a solid guy, no longer a star.
8. Jhonny Peralta, Indians
9. Orlando Cabrera, White Sox
10. Miguel Tejada, Astros
11. Edgar Renteria, Tigers
NOTE: Don't overpay for the lineup.
12. Khalil Greene, Padres
NOTE: Might hit 30 homers, but brings average risk.
13. J.J. Hardy, Brewers
14. Jason Bartlett, Rays
15. Julio Lugo, Red Sox
16. Stephen Drew, Diamondbacks
17. Yuniesky Betancourt, Mariners
18. Yunel Escobar, Braves
19. Felipe Lopez, Nationals
20. David Eckstein, Blue Jays
21. Jack Wilson, Pirates
22. Jeff Keppinger, Reds
23. *Bobby Crosby, Athletics
24. Tony Pena, Royals
25. Cesar Izturis, Cardinals
26. Adam Everett, Twins
27. *Omar Vizquel, Giants
28. Luis Hernandez, Orioles
29. Cristian Guzman, Nationals
30. *Alex Gonzalez, Reds
31. Nick Punto, Twins
32. Mark Loretta, Astros
Third Base
1. Alex Rodriguez, Yankees
NOTE: The only logical No. 1 pick.
2. David Wright, Mets
3. Miguel Cabrera, Tigers
4. Ryan Braun, Brewers
5. Garrett Atkins, Rockies
6. Aramis Ramirez, Cubs
7. Chone Figgins, Angels
8. Ryan Zimmerman, Nationals
NOTE: Better than last, and new park helps.
9. Chipper Jones, Braves
NOTE: Skills are sublime, but bid on 430 at-bats.
10. Adrian Beltre, Mariners
11. Mike Lowell, Red Sox
12. Hank Blalock, Rangers
NOTE: Re-earned trust late in 2007.
13. Kevin Kouzmanoff, Padres
14. Edwin Encarnacion, Reds
NOTE: Nifty sleeper but can we trust Dusty?
15. Alex Gordon, Royals
16. Ty Wigginton, Astros
NOTE: Also qualifies at second base.
17. Akinori Iwamura, Rays
18. Scott Rolen, Blue Jays
19. Evan Longoria, Rays
NOTE: Can't miss, but 2008 gig isn't guaranteed.
20. Josh Fields, White Sox
21. Mark Reynolds, Diamondbacks
22. Troy Glaus, Cardinals
23. Casey Blake, Indians
24. Pedro Feliz, Phillies
25. Melvin Mora, Orioles
26. Jose Bautista, Pirates
27. Mike Lamb, Twins
28. Joe Crede, White Sox
29. Eric Chavez, Athletics
30. Nomar Garciaparra, Dodgers
31. Maicer Izturis, Angels
32. Chad Tracy, Diamondbacks
33. Juan Uribe, White Sox
34. Rich Aurilia, Giants
35. *Andy LaRoche, Dodgers
36. Chase Headley, Padres
Outfield
1. Matt Holliday, Rockies
2. Carl Crawford, Rays
3. Grady Sizemore, Indians
NOTE: The Mayor of Ohio, fills every column.
4. Carlos Lee, Astros
5. *Alfonso Soriano, Cubs
6. Vladimir Guerrero, Angels
7. Nick Markakis, Orioles
NOTE: Late speed probably carries over.
8. Magglio Ordonez, Tigers
9. Ichiro Suzuki, Mariners
NOTE: In a mild decline but spring struggles overrated.
10. B.J. Upton, Rays
11. Alex Rios, Blue Jays
12. Carlos Beltran, Mets
13. Eric Byrnes, Diamondbacks
NOTE: You make profit merely with 2006 stats.
14. Manny Ramirez, Red Sox
15. Curtis Granderson, Tigers
16. Torii Hunter, Angels
17. Corey Hart, Brewers
18. Hunter Pence, Astros
NOTE: What a ballplayer should look like.
19. Vernon Wells, Blue Jays
20. Jeff Francoeur, Braves
21. Bobby Abreu, Yankees
NOTE: Power dip, no longer a value.
22. Josh Hamilton, Rangers
23. Matt Kemp, Dodgers
24. Adam Dunn, Reds
25. Jermaine Dye, White Sox
26. Chris Young, Diamondbacks
27. Brad Hawpe, Rockies
28. Hideki Matsui, Yankees
29. Andruw Jones, Dodgers
30. Nick Swisher, White Sox
31. Delmon Young, Twins
32. Jose Castillo, Marlins
33. Michael Bourn, Astros
34. Jason Bay, Pirates
NOTE: Bum year and small market equals nifty sleeper.
35. Michael Cuddyer, Twins
NOTE: Not a sexy play, but great support numbers.
36. Johnny Damon, Yankees
37. Josh Willingham, Marlins
38. Ken Griffey, Reds
39. Adam Jones, Orioles
40. Shane Victorino, Phillies
41. Mark Teahen, Royals
42. Jacoby Ellsbury, Red Sox
NOTE: Skills are legit but there's gridlock here.
43. Raul Ibanez, Mariners
44. Willy Taveras, Rockies
45. Jeremy Hermida, Marlins
46. *Mike Cameron, Brewers
47. Jose Guillen, Royals
48. Lastings Milledge, Nationals
49. Pat Burrell, Phillies
NOTE: Loses at-bats due to leaky defense.
50. Melky Cabrera, Yankees
51. Bill Hall, Brewers
52. Kosuke Fukudome, Cubs
53. Aaron Rowand, Giants
54. David DeJesus, Royals
NOTE: Has the jets but hasn't learned to steal.
55. Coco Crisp, Red Sox
56. Felix Pie, Cubs
57. Rick Ankiel, Cardinals
58. Matt Diaz, Braves
59. Austin Kearns, Nationals
60. Luke Scott, Orioles
61. Ryan Church, Mets
62. Justin Upton, Diamondbacks
63. Nate McLouth, Pirates
NOTE: Let him play and he's a Byrnes type.
64. Aubrey Huff, Orioles
65. Chris Duncan, Cardinals
66. Corey Patterson, Reds
67. Jason Kubel, Twins
68. Carlos Gomez, Twins
69. Juan Pierre, Dodgers
70. Travis Buck, Athletics
71. Gary Matthews, Angels
72. J.D. Drew, Red Sox
NOTE: No logical excuse for 2007.
73. Jay Bruce, Reds
74. Jonny Gomes, Rays
75. Garret Anderson, Angels
76. Andre Ethier, Dodgers
77. Milton Bradley, Rangers
78. Jack Cust, Athletics
79. Scott Hairston, Padres
NOTE: Has 25-homer upside if he lands the gig.
80. Cameron Maybin, Marlins
81. Wily Mo Pena, Nationals
82. Randy Winn, Giants
83. Carlos Quentin, White Sox
84. Franklin Gutierrez, Indians
85. *Moises Alou, Mets
86. Frank Catalanotto, Rangers
87. Elijah Dukes, Nationals
NOTE: Being mentored by Barry Larkin.
88. Jacque Jones, Tigers
89. Geoff Jenkins, Phillies
90. Cliff Floyd, Rays
91. Joey Gathright, Royals
92. Steven Pearce, Pirates
93. Ryan Freel, Reds
94. Dave Roberts, Giants
95. Brian Giles, Padres
96. *Jim Edmonds, Padres
97. Barry Bonds, Free Agent
98. Jayson Werth, Phillies
99. David Dellucci, Indians
100. Jerry Owens, White Sox
101. Xavier Nady, Pirates
102. Brad Wilkerson, Mariners
103. Kenny Lofton, Free Agent
104. Alexei Ramirez, White Sox
105. Emil Brown, Athletics
106. Marlon Byrd, Rangers
107. Reggie Willits, Angels
108. *Rocco Baldelli, Rays
Catcher
1. Victor Martinez, Indians
2. Russell Martin, Dodgers
3. Brian McCann, Braves
NOTE: Best value of the Top 5.
4. Joe Mauer, Twins
5. Jorge Posada, Yankees
6. Kenji Johjima, Mariners
NOTE: Best value of the second tier.
7. Bengie Molina, Giants
8. A.J. Pierzynski, White Sox
9. Ivan Rodriguez, Tigers
10. Jarrod Saltalamacchia, Rangers
11. Jason Varitek, Red Sox
12. Ramon Hernandez, Orioles
13. Geovany Soto, Cubs
14. Ronny Paulino, Pirates
15. J.R. Towles, Astros
NOTE: Decent bat, sneaky speed.
16. Mike Napoli, Angels
17. Chris Snyder, Diamondbacks
18. Dioner Navarro, Rays
19. Carlos Ruiz, Phillies
20. Josh Bard, Padres
21. Yorvit Torrealba, Rockies
22. Kurt Suzuki, Athletics
23. Ryan Doumit, Pirates
24. Dave Ross, Reds
25. Yadier Molina, Cardinals
26. Paul Lo Duca, Nationals
27. John Buck, Royals
NOTE: This is the now-or-never season.
28. Gregg Zaun, Blue Jays
29. Miguel Olivo, Royals
30. Chris Iannetta, Rockies
31. Kelly Shoppach, Indians
32. Johnny Estrada, Nationals
33. Brian Schneider, Mets
34. Jason Kendall, Brewers
35. Gerald Laird, Rangers
36. Miguel Montero, Diamondbacks
37. Michael Barrett, Padres
2:04 PM Tue, Mar 18, 2008 | Permalink |
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By Mike McDermott Email
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By David Ferris
All rankings assume 5x5 format (wins, saves, strikeouts, ERA, ratio).
* = check status
Last Updated: 3/18
Next Update: 3/25
Starting Pitchers
1. Johan Santana, Mets
2. Jake Peavy, Padres
3. Erik Bedard, Mariners
4. Brandon Webb, Diamondbacks
5. C.C. Sabathia, Indians
6. Cole Hamels, Phillies
7. Justin Verlander, Tigers
8. Dan Haren, Diamondbacks
9. *Josh Beckett, Red Sox
10. Aaron Harang, Reds
11. Daisuke Matsuzaka, Red Sox
12. John Maine, Mets
NOTE: Consider last year the floor.
13. Tim Lincecum, Giants
14. John Smoltz, Braves
15. Rich Hill, Cubs
16. Felix Hernandez, Mariners
17. Roy Oswalt, Astros
18. *John Lackey, Angels
NOTE: He's out for April.
19. Javier Vazquez, White Sox
20. James Shields, Rays
21. Carlos Zambrano, Cubs
22. Ian Snell, Pirates
23. Fausto Carmona, Indians
24. Chris Young, Padres
25. Adam Wainwright, Cardinals
26. *Scott Kazmir, Rays
27. Matt Cain, Giants
NOTE: Could be steal of draft.
28. Dustin McGowan, Blue Jays
29. Pedro Martinez, Mets
30. *Francisco Liriano, Twins
31. Ted Lilly, Cubs
32. Roy Halladay, Blue Jays
33. Bronson Arroyo, Reds
34. Brad Penny, Dodgers
35. Chad Billingsley, Dodgers
36. Jered Weaver, Angels
NOTE: Fly-baller but gets it done.
37. Tim Hudson, Braves
38. A.J. Burnett, Blue Jays
39. Jeff Francis, Rockies
40. Brett Myers, Phillies
41. *Yovani Gallardo, Brewers
42. Ben Sheets, Brewers
43. Derek Lowe, Dodgers
NOTE: Not an ace but good middle-staff material.
44. Oliver Perez, Mets
45. Zack Greinke, Royals
46. Jeremy Bonderman, Tigers
47. Clay Buchholz, Red Sox
48. Phil Hughes, Yankees
49. Chien-Ming Wang, Yankees
50. Gil Meche, Royals
51. Scott Baker, Twins
NOTE: Not a dominator but some strikeout upside.
52. Kelvim Escobar, Angels
53. Joe Blanton, Athletics
54. Andy Pettitte, Yankees
55. Tom Gorzelanny, Pirates
56. Hiroki Kuroda, Dodgers
57. Jon Garland, Angels
NOTE: Some upside in new city.
58. Dontrelle Willis, Tigers
59. Matt Garza, Rays
60. Boof Bonser, Twins
61. Greg Maddux, Padres
62. Andy Sonnanstine, Rays
63. Ubaldo Jimenez, Rockies
NOTE: This isn't your father's Coors Field.
64. Shaun Marcum, Blue Jays
65. Randy Johnson, Diamondbacks
66. Kevin Slowey, Twins
67. Rich Harden, Athletics
68. Jonathan Sanchez, Giants
69. Mark Buehrle, White Sox
70. Jake Westbrook, Indians
71. Shawn Hill, Senators
72. Randy Wolf, Padres
73. Ian Kennedy, Yankees
74. Wandy Rodriguez, Astros
NOTE: Solid at home, still a level to climb.
75. Jeremy Guthrie, Orioles
76. Franklin Morales, Rockies
77. Kevin Correia, Giants
NOTE: Quietly effective down the stretch.
78. Scott Olsen, Marlins
79. Doug Davis, Diamondbacks
80. Mark Prior, Padres
81. Brian Bannister, Royals
82. Jon Lester, Red Sox
83. Daniel Cabrera, Orioles
NOTE: Electric stuff but no command yet.
84. Justin Duchscherer, Athletics
85. Nate Robertson, Tigers
86. Tim Redding, Senators
87. Micah Owings, Diamondbacks
88. Kenny Rogers, Tigers
89. Tom Glavine, Braves
90. Barry Zito, Giants
NOTE: Terrible spring, overrated to begin with.
91. *Chad Gaudin, Athletics
92. Andrew Miller, Marlins
93. Homer Bailey, Reds
94. Chris Sampson, Astros
95. Kyle Kendrick, Phillies
96. John Danks, White Sox
97. Joel Pineiro, Cardinals
98. Jair Jurrjens, Braves
99. Tim Wakefield, Red Sox
100. David Bush, Brewers
101. Edinson Volquez, Reds
NOTE: Making impression in camp.
102. Garrett Olson, Orioles
103. Anthony Reyes, Cardinals
104. Brandon Backe, Astros
105. Shawn Chacon, Astros
106. Joe Saunders, Angels
107. Jason Bergmann, Senators
108. Adam Loewen, Orioles
109. Orlando Hernandez, Mets
110. Paul Maholm, Pirates
111. Jeff Suppan, Brewers
112. Cliff Lee, Indians
113. Miguel Batista, Mariners
114. Jon Lieber, Cubs
115. Jeremy Affeldt, Reds
116. Jose Contreras, White Sox
117. Ryan Dempster, Cubs
NOTE: Misplaced in rotation.
118. Ervin Santana, Angels
119. Jarrod Washburn, Mariners
120. Aaron Laffey, Indians
121. Bartolo Colon, Red Sox
122. Zach Duke, Pirates
123. Carlos Silva, Mariners
124. John Patterson, Senators
125. Aaron Cook, Rockies
126. *Sergio Mitre, Marlins
127. Dana Eveland, Athletics
NOTE: Solid bet to get a spot.
128. *Chris Carpenter, Cardinals
NOTE: Mid-season return possible; think about 2009.
129. *Curt Schilling, Red Sox
130. Justin Germano, Padres
131. Jesse Litsch, Blue Jays
132. *Chris Capuano, Brewers
133. *Chuck James, Braves
134. Mike Pelfrey, Mets
135. Matt Chico, Senators
136. Odalis Perez, Senators
137. Edwin Jackson, Rays
138. Jason Jennings, Rangers
139. Adam Eaton, Phillies
140. Kason Gabbard, Rangers
141. Josh Fogg, Reds
142. Manny Parra, Brewers
143. Jamie Moyer, Phillies
144. Brandon McCarthy, Rangers
145. Brett Tomko, Royals
146. Matt Belisle, Reds
147. Livan Hernandez, Twins
148. Mark Mulder, Cardinals
149. Jason Schmidt, Dodgers
150. Paul Byrd, Indians
NOTE: Gobbles innings, but no upside.
151. Jason Marquis, Cubs
152. Jeff Weaver, Free Agent
153. Mike Mussina, Yankees
154. Claudio Vargas, Brewers
155. Jo-Jo Reyes, Braves
156. Gavin Floyd, White Sox
157. Sean Marshall, Cubs
158. Kyle Lohse, Cardinals
159. Kevin Millwood, Rangers
160. *Noah Lowry, Giants
161. Matt Clement, Cardinals
162. John Lannan, Senators
163. Brian Burres, Orioles
164. Jorge de la Rosa, Royals
165. Vicente Padilla, Rangers
166. Gustavo Chacin, Blue Jays
167. Mark Hendrickson, Marlins
168. Jason Hirsh, Rockies
169. David Wells, Free Agent
170. Josh Towers, Rockies
171. Braden Looper, Cardinals
172. Matt Morris, Pirates
Relief Pitchers
1. Jonathan Papelbon, Red Sox
2. J.J. Putz, Mariners
3. Mariano Rivera, Yankees
4. Billy Wagner, Mets
5. Joe Nathan, Twins
NOTE: Don't let team's construction scare you.
6. Francisco Rodriguez, Angels
7. Takashi Saito, Dodgers
8. Jose Valverde, Astros
9. Matt Capps, Pirates
10. Bobby Jenks, White Sox
11. Manuel Corpas, Rockies
NOTE: Safer play than most realize.
12. Francisco Cordero, Reds
13. Joakim Soria, Royals
NOTE: Good values in small markets.
14. Huston Street, Athletics
15. *Rafael Soriano, Braves
16. *Brad Lidge, Phillies
17. Todd Jones, Tigers
18. Jason Isringhausen, Cardinals
19. Chad Cordero, Senators
20. Trevor Hoffman, Padres
21. Joe Borowski, Indians
22. Brian Wilson, Giants
NOTE: Bochy has already endorsed him.
23. Kevin Gregg, Marlins
24. George Sherrill, Orioles
NOTE: A steal in many public leagues.
25. Eric Gagne, Brewers
26. Brandon Lyon, Diamondbacks
27. B.J. Ryan, Blue Jays
28. Troy Percival, Rays
29. C.J. Wilson, Rangers
30. Carlos Marmol, Cubs
31. Kerry Wood, Cubs
32. Joba Chamberlain, Yankees
33. Jonathan Broxton, Dodgers
34. Jeremy Accardo, Blue Jays
35. Heath Bell, Padres
NOTE: Mandatory insurance for Hoffman owners.
36. Tony Pena, Diamondbacks
37. Rafael Betancourt, Indians
38. Tom Gordon, Phillies
39. Eddie Guardado, Rangers
40. Joaquin Benoit, Rangers
41. Chad Qualls, Diamondbacks
42. Pat Neshek, Twins
43. David Riske, Brewers
44. Dan Wheeler, Rays
NOTE: Percival is no sure thing.
45. Luis Ayala, Senators
46. Bob Howry, Cubs
47. Jamie Walker, Orioles
48. Alan Embree, Athletics
49. Aaron Heilman, Mets
50. Al Reyes, Rays
51. Jon Rauch, Senators
52. Scot Shields, Angels
53. Derrick Turnbow, Brewers
54. Hideki Okajima, Red Sox
55. Jason Frasor, Blue Jays
56. Peter Moylan, Braves
NOTE: Sleeper value if Soriano stumbles.
57. James Hoey, Orioles
58. Brad Hennessey, Giants
59. Damaso Marte, Pirates
60. Brian Fuentes, Rockies
61. Octavio Dotel, White Sox
62. Chad Bradford, Orioles
63. Scott Linebrink, White Sox
64. Carlos Villanueva, Brewers
NOTE: Looks headed for rotation spot.
65. Pedro Feliciano, Mets
66. Cla Meredith, Padres
67. Matt Guerrier, Twins
68. Taylor Tankersley, Marlins
69. Juan Cruz, Diamondbacks
70. Mike Wuertz, Cubs
71. Joel Peralta, Royals
72. Scott Downs, Blue Jays
73. Chris Schroder, Senators
74. Santiago Casilla, Athletics
75. Jensen Lewis, Indians
76. Manny Delcarmen, Red Sox
77. Jesse Crain, Twins
78. Masahide Kobayashi, Indians
79. Patrick Misch, Giants
80. Julian Tavarez, Red Sox
81. *Fernando Rodney, Tigers
82. Rafael Perez, Indians
83. Bill Bray, Reds
84. Keith Foulke, Athletics
85. Brandon League, Blue Jays
86. Ryan Madson, Phillies
87. David Weathers, Reds
88. Byung-Hyun Kim, Pirates
89. *Casey Janssen, Blue Jays
10:06 AM Tue, Mar 18, 2008 | Permalink |
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By David Ferris
3/14/08
March Madness might be more of a basketball term, but it also applies to how mispriced some of the current American League ballplayers are at the draft table. Here’s our current shopping guide, guaranteed to keep you off the bubble and out of trouble.
Batters
BUY
Luke Scott, OF, Orioles – He’s finally getting a full-time gig, and while Camden Yards isn’t the run-scoring paradise it’s made out to be, it’s still a pretty easy place to knock one over the wall. Scott’s an even-money shot to get 25 homers, and if everything clicks you’ve got a chance at 30. Best of all, you won’t need to outbid half of the room to land Scott for the back of your outfield.
Hank Blalock, 3B, Rangers – His swing and his shoulder looked just fine in September, when most weren’t paying attention. I still like the park and pedigree here, and a discount doesn’t hurt. Blalock won’t cost much more than $10, but he’s ready to be a $20 asset again.
SELL
Casey Blake, 3B, Indians – He spent the playoffs parked at the bottom of the order, and that’s the plan for 2008 as well. Blake will do well merely to keep his job as the season goes along; Cleveland has a deep offense and an intriguing bench, and once the bat speed starts fading in the mid 30s, the tide doesn’t reserve course.
Richie Sexson, 1B, Mariners – Sure he was plenty unlucky on balls in play last year, but who’s at fault when Sexson swings and misses? I saw him beat on too many inside heaters last year to get tingly about a rebound.
HOLD
Howie Kendrick, 2B, Angels – He’s got the stroke to win a batting title a few years down the road, and while the power hasn’t developed yet, the Angels are prepared to give him free reign on the bases. With the expectation that Kendrick can tack on 15-20 bags to that pretty average, let’s bid the extra buck.
Pitchers
BUY
Dustin McGowan, SP, Blue Jays – He’s the No. 3 arm for the Jays entering the year, but don’t be surprised if he’s considered the staff ace by the end of the season. McGowan got bit by the gopher ball a bit in the second half of 2007, but he also improved in every other key column at the same time (more strikeouts, less walks), and we’ve always seen No. 1 potential from this arm. Go get him; this is the last year the sticker price won’t be expensive.
George Sherrill, RP, Orioles – His stuff is merely good, not dominant, but the competition in the Baltimore bullpen leaves me cold. Jamie Walker? The Orioles know he’s a left specialist. James Hoey? Young, nicked up and unproven. Let’s set the over/under for Sherrill saves at 20, which means we’ll be in the bidding later than most.
SELL
Chien-Ming Wang, SP, Yankees – He’s plenty comfortable in Yankee Stadium, but his power sinker doesn’t always travel well; Wang’s career ERA on the road is a messy 4.62. Throw in the modest strikeout rate and it’s enough to get smart 5x5 owners off the scent. Throw his name out early, then watch your Tri-State competitors slide into overbid mode.
HOLD
Joe Borowski, RP, Indians – His stuff isn’t anywhere near dominant and you’ll want to keep that ERA and ratio away from the kids, but if Eric Wedge keeps giving him the ball in the ninth inning, who cares? They don’t ask how in this game, they ask how many, and it matters not if fantasy owners want to take Borowski’s job away tomorrow – Cleveland has no intention of doing so. If you go for your saves on a budget, Borowski makes a lot of sense.
9:40 AM Fri, Mar 14, 2008 | Permalink |
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By David Ferris
3/13/08
Prices change, perceptions change, players come and go, and we’re here, trying to make sense of it all. Here’s a look at the current marketplace as we hit the second week of March.
Batters
BUY
Michael Bourn, OF, Astros – I’m not going to give you an ultimatum here, and let’s not expect supremacy in his first starting gig. Begin with the basics: identity. Bourn is the new center fielder in Houston, he’s the type of guy who wants to run every time he gets on base (note his 18 swipes in 19 attempts last year, with very limited playing time), and he’s already grabbed five bags this spring. If Houston leaves him alone for a full season, we could see 60 steals or more by season’s end, along with a reasonable average.
Jeff Keppinger, SS, Reds – The Alex Gonzalez injury probably gives Keppinger the starting nod to open the season, and while another .334 season can’t be expected here, Keppinger’s got the pedigree of a .300 hitter. The tiny ballpark in Cincinnati doesn’t hurt the cause, either.
SELL
Jeff Kent, 2B, Dodgers – His hamstring injury might not be that big a deal, and fantasy owners don’t mind that Kent has the range of a lawn chair at second base. But the circus eventually leaves town for everyone and Kent turned 40 last week; we can’t help but expect some air to seep out of the tires as the season goes along.
Aaron Rowand, OF, Giants – He’s a blast to watch in real life, but the park switch will take a bite of his stats (so long, Philly), and Rowand’s all-out style in center field invites injury risk.
HOLD
Eric Byrnes, OF, Diamondbacks – It’s generally a good idea to bid skeptically off a career year, but let’s not forget that Byrnes was a dynamic player in 2006 as well (26 homers, 25 steals). His walk rate has improved in recent years, and we’ll forgive the ordinary average so long as he continues to fill the money categories at the end of the stat line. The public doesn’t want to pay for Byrnes, but I’ll cut the check.
Pitchers
BUY
Wandy Rodriguez, SP, Astros – His final line from 2007 doesn’t look all that special, but take a closer look: He lowered his ERA by a run over 2006, with a nice strikeout spike and much better control. And pitching in the shadow of the Crawford Boxes doesn’t bother him – he had a 2.94 ERA at home last year. Give Rodriguez some early success on the road in 2008 and he’ll turn into one of the better pitching sleepers of the year.
SELL
Sergio Mitre, SP, Marlins – A forearm injury is going to keep him out for half of 2008, and that’s enough to skip his name at the table. Keep an eye on the back of the rotation in Florida because the home park helps a sleeper along; Ricky Nolasco is the most interesting guy there for now.
Trevor Hoffman, RP, Padres – He’s been skating by on guts, guile and declining stuff for the last few years, never more evident than on the final days of the 2007 season. The Friars aren’t going to take the ball away from their 40-year-old closer, but this probably will be the last year he’s closing up shop for them, and the support stats won’t be pretty.
Chad Cordero, RP, Nationals – His save count jumped nicely in 2007 even as his strikeout rate fell, his walk rate jumped and opponents batted .260 against him. A bigger park to work in helps the cause in 2008, but if the Nationals aren’t in the hunt in July and August, a trade becomes likely.
HOLD
Clayton Kershaw, SP, Dodgers – The left-handed phenom has been turning heads all during camp, but let’s keep in mind he’s still in his teens (Kershaw turns 20 next week) and far from polished (he walked 17 in 24.1 innings after his promotion to Double-A last year). I’ll bite with Kershaw for the decade to come, but for 2008, it’s too early to expect a return.
9:54 AM Wed, Mar 12, 2008 | Permalink |
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By Michael Salfino
Most of the guys who tanked in 2007 are viewed as future bums, too, because fans are too angry and analysts too analytical to simply say, “He had a bad year.”
But “Last Year’s Bums,” as coined by my friend and colleague Gene McCaffrey (WiseGuyBaseball.com), are often just that. This year? Who knows.
As we noted last week in our piece on 2007’s NL Bums, performance declines experienced last year can simply be the result of random variance. But we all have a tendency to look for patterns, real or imagined.
A player who is in his 30s has a bad year, and suddenly we notice how his on-base plus slugging percentage (OPS) declined mildly the two years before. Now we have a pattern. Slugger X is done. At a minimum, we predict there is but a lottery-ticket’s chance he recaptures past glory.
Or, a highly regarded player bursts on the scene, only to struggle mightily. That guy is labeled a toolsy bum who almost certainly will never amount to anything. Think Devil Rays first baseman Carlos Pena before last year’s MVP-caliber season.
I will stipulate there’s good chance the following players will continue to disappoint. Perhaps that’s even likely. But the odds are closer to a coin flip than we think. Many of these guys get discounted as if there’s only some nominal chance they will rebound. And almost all of the handful of optimistic projections are still depressed because they are based on that terrible 2007. There’s a decent chance, though, that last season’s bottom line will prove completely irrelevant.
So, given their low cost, let’s put a “Buy” on these bums except where otherwise noted.
Travis Hafner, 1B, Indians: You could put Richie Sexson and Lyle Overbay in the “Bum” category, too. But I’m far more bullish on a Hafner bounce back. Alas, the discount will not be as great. His rate of homers on fly balls was cut from 31 percent to 16 percent. Steroids? Again, we’re seeking a reason for what’s likely a random event. Expect his rate to jump back to about 25 percent, which gives him 35 homers if everything else from last year stays the same (it won’t, but you get the idea).
Howie Kendrick, 2B, Angels: Josh Barfield was the bigger bum, but, like most bums, lost his job. There’s a realization that Kendrick is not going to run or hit homers and mostly provides empty batting average – a rich man’s Jose Vidro. Kendrick has an awfully low (15.9 percent) line-drive rate for a guy who hit .381 on balls in play (average is .300). Kendrick won’t be discounted enough to buy.
Julio Lugo, SS, Red Sox: Bobby Crosby is the truer bum. But he’s chronically injured. Lugo is hurt now, too, but there’s no injury to explain him hitting .233 with a .332 slugging his last 716 at bats. He will run if his bad back proves as inconsequential as it did during recent medical tests; the Red Sox attempted 120 steals last year, a big number considering all their plodders.
Scott Rolen, 3B, Blue Jays: Eric Chavez’s back is still broken. Joe Crede’s is surgically repaired, but he’s battling for playing time. Alex Gordon was another bum, but he still has that Kendrick-style prospect juice. Rolen’s shoulder was surgically repaired and he’s been a near Hall of Fame-caliber player when healthy. The Skydome greatly inflates power numbers, too.
Luke Scott, OF, Orioles: Most people think Vernon Wells' pattern is every-other-year (how silly, when you think about it); a smaller number say, “'Roids.” Coco Crisp is another outfield bum, but needs a ticket out of Boston to get necessary at bats. Scott looks like Carlos Pena to me: promising lefty power hitter who finally gets full-time at-bats. So 25 homers is the floor and 30 a reasonable projection.
Dioner Navarro, C, Rays: The atrocious '07 bottom line masks a nice finish: .294/.344/.492 in August and September. He’s only 24 and was once expected to hit. More good news: homers on an above-average 13 percent of fly balls after the break.
Jered Weaver, P, Angels: So many bums at pitcher (as always). Felix Hernandez never pitches to his stuff because he lacks pitching smarts and toughness (i.e., knocking guys on their keisters). Jeremy Bonderman throws 34 percent sliders, now mostly a specialty pitch for relievers given the strain it places on the elbow. So that leaves us with Weaver, who looks too much like evil brother Jeff to many. Yes, Jered’s K-rate declined by 25 percent and even further in the second half. But he’s an extreme fly-ball pitcher (No. 1 in the AL) and these extreme guys are at least good and often great because they have the stuff to dictate pitcher-hitter outcomes.
9:52 AM Wed, Mar 12, 2008 | Permalink |
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By David Ferris
All rankings assume 5x5 format (average, runs, homers, RBI, stolen bases).
* = check status
Last Updated: 3/11
Next Update: 3/18
First Base/DH
1. Prince Fielder, Brewers
2. Ryan Howard, Phillies
3. Mark Teixeira, Braves
NOTE: Haven't seen best season yet.
4. Albert Pujols, Cardinals
5. David Ortiz, Red Sox
6. Lance Berkman, Astros
7. Justin Morneau, Twins
8. Carlos Guillen, Tigers
NOTE: Also qualifies at short.
9. Adrian Gonzalez, Padres
NOTE: Continues to beat the park.
10. Derrek Lee, Cubs
11. Carlos Pena, Rays
12. Travis Hafner, Indians
NOTE: Stay skeptical after messy 2007.
13. Paul Konerko, White Sox
14. Ryan Garko, Indians
15. Carlos Delgado, Mets
16. Gary Sheffield, Tigers
NOTE: Biggest risk/reward play at position.
17. Jim Thome, White Sox
18. James Loney, Dodgers
19. Todd Helton, Rockies
20. Billy Butler, Royals
NOTE: Natural-born hitter.
21. Kevin Youkilis, Red Sox
22. Adam LaRoche, Pirates
23. Conor Jackson, Diamondbacks
24. Frank Thomas, Blue Jays
25. Casey Kotchman, Angels
26. Richie Sexson, Mariners
27. Joey Votto, Reds
NOTE: Leave him alone, Dusty.
28. Dmitri Young, Nationals
29. Jason Giambi, Yankees
30. *Daric Barton, Athletics
31. Jose Vidro, Mariners
32. Lyle Overbay, Blue Jays
33. Mike Jacobs, Marlins
34. Kevin Millar, Orioles
35. Shelly Duncan, Yankees
36. Dan Ortmeier, Giants
37. Matt Stairs, Blue Jays
38. Ben Broussard, Rangers
39. Marcus Thames, Tigers
40. Ross Gload, Royals
41. Nick Johnson, Nationals
42. Dan Johnson, Athletics
43. Mike Sweeney, Athletics
44. Jorge Cantu, Marlins
Second Base
1. Chase Utley, Phillies
NOTE: An MVP waits in his future.
2. Brandon Phillips, Reds
3. Robinson Cano, Yankees
4. Brian Roberts, Orioles
5. Ian Kinsler, Rangers
NOTE: Eventually, an All-Star staple.
6. Rickie Weeks, Brewers
7. Aaron Hill, Blue Jays
8. Howie Kendrick, Angels
NOTE: Likely to run this year.
9. Placido Polanco, Tigers
NOTE: Don't pay for 2007 profile.
10. Jeff Kent, Dodgers
11. Dustin Pedroia, Red Sox
12. Dan Uggla, Marlins
13. Mark Ellis, Athletics
14. Orlando Hudson, Diamondbacks
15. Asdrubal Cabrera, Indians
NOTE: Shoved Barfield out of the way.
16. Kelly Johnson, Braves
17. Freddy Sanchez, Pirates
18. Ryan Theriot, Cubs
19. Luis Castillo, Mets
20. Jose Lopez, Mariners
21. Kaz Matsui, Astros
22. Jayson Nix, Rockies
23. Brendan Harris, Twins
24. Ray Durham, Giants
25. Erick Aybar, Angels
26. Mark Grudzielanek, Royals
NOTE: He is what he is.
27. Tad Iguchi, Padres
28. Adam Kennedy, Cardinals
29. Kevin Frandsen, Giants
30. Mark DeRosa, Cubs
31. Ronnie Belliard, Nationals
32. Marcus Giles, Rockies
33. Danny Richar, White Sox
34. Mark Loretta, Astros
Shortstop
1. Jose Reyes, Mets
2. Hanley Ramirez, Marlins
3. Jimmy Rollins, Phillies
4. Troy Tulowitzki, Rockies
NOTE: Decent value after Big 3.
5. Derek Jeter, Yankees
6. Rafael Furcal, Dodgers
7. Michael Young, Rangers
8. Orlando Cabrera, White Sox
9. Jhonny Peralta, Indians
NOTE: Eye fix did the trick in 2007.
10. Miguel Tejada, Astros
11. Edgar Renteria, Tigers
12. Khalil Greene, Padres
13. J.J. Hardy, Brewers
14. Jason Bartlett, Rays
NOTE: Cheap speed, small-market screen.
15. Julio Lugo, Red Sox
16. Stephen Drew, Diamondbacks
17. Yuniesky Betancourt, Mariners
18. Yunel Escobar, Braves
19. Felipe Lopez, Nationals
20. David Eckstein, Blue Jays
21. Jack Wilson, Pirates
22. Jeff Keppinger, Reds
NOTE: Needed with Gonzalez hurt.
23. *Bobby Crosby, Athletics
24. Tony Pena, Royals
25. Cesar Izturis, Cardinals
26. Adam Everett, Twins
27. *Omar Vizquel, Giants
28. Luis Hernandez, Orioles
29. Cristian Guzman, Nationals
30. *Alex Gonzalez, Reds
31. Nick Punto, Twins
32. Juan Uribe, White Sox
Third Base
1. Alex Rodriguez, Yankees
2. David Wright, Mets
3. Miguel Cabrera, Tigers
4. Ryan Braun, Brewers
NOTE: No glove, but what a bat.
5. Aramis Ramirez, Cubs
6. Garrett Atkins, Rockies
7. Chone Figgins, Angels
8. Chipper Jones, Braves
9. Ryan Zimmerman, Nationals
10. Adrian Beltre, Mariners
11. Mike Lowell, Red Sox
12. Hank Blalock, Rangers
NOTE: Decent rebound candidate.
13. Kevin Kouzmanoff, Padres
NOTE: We love ya, Kouz.
14. Edwin Encarnacion, Reds
15. Alex Gordon, Royals
16. Ty Wigginton, Astros
17. Akinori Iwamura, Rays
18. Evan Longoria, Rays
19. Scott Rolen, Blue Jays
20. Mark Reynolds, Diamondbacks
21. Troy Glaus, Cardinals
22. Pedro Feliz, Phillies
23. Melvin Mora, Orioles
24. Casey Blake, Indians
NOTE: Late fade hints at cliff season.
25. Joe Crede, White Sox
26. Jose Bautista, Pirates
27. Mike Lamb, Twins
28. Eric Chavez, Athletics
29. Nomar Garciaparra, Dodgers
30. Maicer Izturis, Angels
31. Chad Tracy, Diamondbacks
32. Rich Aurilia, Giants
33. *Andy LaRoche, Dodgers
34. Chase Headley, Padres
35. Jose Castillo, Marlins
Outfield
1. Matt Holliday, Rockies
2. Carl Crawford, Rays
3. Grady Sizemore, Indians
4. Carlos Lee, Astros
5. *Alfonso Soriano, Cubs
6. Vladimir Guerrero, Angels
7. Nick Markakis, Orioles
8. Ichiro Suzuki, Mariners
9. Magglio Ordonez, Tigers
10. Alex Rios, Blue Jays
11. Carlos Beltran, Mets
12. Eric Byrnes, Diamondbacks
13. Manny Ramirez, Red Sox
14. B.J. Upton, Rays
NOTE: Monster upside; also usable at second.
15. Curtis Granderson, Tigers
16. Torii Hunter, Angels
17. Corey Hart, Brewers
18. Hunter Pence, Astros
19. Bobby Abreu, Yankees
20. Vernon Wells, Blue Jays
21. Matt Kemp, Dodgers
22. Jeff Francoeur, Braves
NOTE: Underrated by the statheads.
23. Josh Hamilton, Rangers
24. Adam Dunn, Reds
25. Jermaine Dye, White Sox
26. Chris Young, Diamondbacks
27. Brad Hawpe, Rockies
NOTE: Oddly, hits well away from Misty Mountain.
28. Hideki Matsui, Yankees
29. Delmon Young, Twins
30. Andruw Jones, Dodgers
31. Nick Swisher, White Sox
32. Jason Bay, Pirates
33. Michael Bourn, Astros
34. Johnny Damon, Yankees
35. Jeremy Hermida, Marlins
36. Willy Taveras, Rockies
37. Shane Victorino, Phillies
38. Michael Cuddyer, Twins
39. Ken Griffey, Reds
40. Adam Jones, Orioles
NOTE: Pricey, yes, but likely worth it.
41. Aaron Rowand, Giants
42. Raul Ibanez, Mariners
43. Pat Burrell, Phillies
44. *Mike Cameron, Brewers
45. David DeJesus, Royals
NOTE: Has the speed but unable to use it.
46. Mark Teahen, Royals
47. Josh Willingham, Marlins
48. Jacoby Ellsbury, Red Sox
49. Jose Guillen, Royals
50. Melky Cabrera, Yankees
51. Coco Crisp, Red Sox
52. Bill Hall, Brewers
NOTE: Another good-hit, no-field Brewer.
53. Kosuke Fukudome, Cubs
54. Jason Kubel, Twins
55. Felix Pie, Cubs
56. Matt Diaz, Braves
57. Lastings Milledge, Nationals
58. Ryan Church, Mets
59. Austin Kearns, Nationals
60. Justin Upton, Diamondbacks
61. Aubrey Huff, Orioles
62. Juan Pierre, Dodgers
63. Luke Scott, Orioles
NOTE: A 25-homer year is possible.
64. Chris Duncan, Cardinals
65. Carlos Gomez, Twins
66. Ryan Freel, Reds
67. Rick Ankiel, Cardinals
68. Travis Buck, Athletics
NOTE: Has shot at leadoff gig.
69. Gary Matthews, Angels
70. Nate McLouth, Pirates
71. J.D. Drew, Red Sox
72. Jay Bruce, Reds
73. Jonny Gomes, Rays
74. Garret Anderson, Angels
75. Milton Bradley, Rangers
76. Corey Patterson, Reds
77. Cameron Maybin, Marlins
78. Jack Cust, Athletics
79. Scott Hairston, Padres
80. Wily Mo Pena, Nationals
81. Brian Giles, Padres
82. Randy Winn, Giants
83. Carlos Quentin, White Sox
84. Andre Ethier, Dodgers
NOTE: Smart hitter, but no spot.
85. Franklin Gutierrez, Indians
86. *Moises Alou, Mets
87. Dave Roberts, Giants
88. Frank Catalanotto, Rangers
89. Jacque Jones, Tigers
90. Rocco Baldelli, Rays
91. Geoff Jenkins, Phillies
92. Cliff Floyd, Rays
93. Jayson Werth, Phillies
94. Elijah Dukes, Nationals
95. Joey Gathright, Royals
96. Steven Pearce, Pirates
97. *Jim Edmonds, Padres
NOTE: He's already hurt.
98. Barry Bonds, Free Agent
99. Jerry Owens, White Sox
100. David Dellucci, Indians
101. Xavier Nady, Pirates
102. Brad Wilkerson, Mariners
103. Kenny Lofton, Free Agent
104. Alexei Ramirez, White Sox
105. Emil Brown, Athletics
106. Marlon Byrd, Rangers
107. Reggie Willits, Angels
Catcher
1. Victor Martinez, Indians
2. Russell Martin, Dodgers
3. Brian McCann, Braves
4. Joe Mauer, Twins
5. Jorge Posada, Yankees
6. Kenji Johjima, Mariners
7. Bengie Molina, Giants
8. Ronny Paulino, Pirates
9. A.J. Pierzynski, White Sox
10. Ivan Rodriguez, Tigers
NOTE: Air is sneaking out of tires.
11. Jason Varitek, Red Sox
12. Ramon Hernandez, Orioles
13. Geovany Soto, Cubs
14. Chris Snyder, Diamondbacks
15. J.R. Towles, Astros
NOTE: Sneaky speed at the position.
16. Jarrod Saltalamacchia, Rangers
17. Mike Napoli, Angels
18. Dioner Navarro, Rays
19. Josh Bard, Padres
NOTE: Nice value, under the radar.
20. Yorvit Torrealba, Rockies
21. Carlos Ruiz, Phillies
22. Kurt Suzuki, Athletics
23. Ryan Doumit, Pirates
24. Yadier Molina, Cardinals
25. Paul Lo Duca, Nationals
26. Gregg Zaun, Blue Jays
27. John Buck, Royals
NOTE: The last show-me season we'll wait on.
28. *Dave Ross, Reds
29. Miguel Olivo, Royals
30. Chris Iannetta, Rockies
31. Johnny Estrada, Nationals
32. Brian Schneider, Mets
33. Kelly Shoppach, Indians
34. Michael Barrett, Padres
35. Jason Kendall, Brewers
36. Gerald Laird, Rangers
37. Miguel Montero, Diamondbacks
9:50 AM Wed, Mar 12, 2008 | Permalink |
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By Mike McDermott Email
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By David Ferris
All rankings assume 5x5 format (wins, saves, strikeouts, ERA, ratio).
* = check status
Last Updated: 3/11
Next Update: 3/18
Starting Pitchers
1. Johan Santana, Mets
NOTE: Highway robbery in Round 2.
2. Jake Peavy, Padres
3. Erik Bedard, Mariners
4. Brandon Webb, Diamondbacks
5. C.C. Sabathia, Indians
6. Cole Hamels, Phillies
7. Justin Verlander, Tigers
8. Dan Haren, Diamondbacks
NOTE: Thin air might offset league switch.
9. *Josh Beckett, Red Sox
10. Aaron Harang, Reds
11. *John Lackey, Angels
12. Daisuke Matsuzaka, Red Sox
13. Roy Oswalt, Astros
14. John Maine, Mets
15. Tim Lincecum, Giants
16. John Smoltz, Braves
NOTE: Don't hold his age against him.
17. Rich Hill, Cubs
18. Felix Hernandez, Mariners
NOTE: To this point, an underachiever.
19. Javier Vazquez, White Sox
20. James Shields, Rays
21. Carlos Zambrano, Cubs
22. Ian Snell, Pirates
NOTE: Screen of small-market city.
23. Fausto Carmona, Indians
24. Chris Young, Padres
NOTE: A slide step wouldn't hurt.
25. Roy Halladay, Blue Jays
26. Adam Wainwright, Cardinals
NOTE: Put it together in second half.
27. *Scott Kazmir, Rays
NOTE: Side Two, Track Three.
28. Matt Cain, Giants
29. Francisco Liriano, Twins
30. Dustin McGowan, Blue Jays
31. Brad Penny, Dodgers
32. Tim Hudson, Braves
33. Ted Lilly, Cubs
34. Bronson Arroyo, Reds
NOTE: Likely rebound and at a nice price.
35. A.J. Burnett, Blue Jays
36. Chad Billingsley, Dodgers
37. Pedro Martinez, Mets
38. Jered Weaver, Angels
39. Jeremy Bonderman, Tigers
NOTE: Hasn't pitched in good luck for years.
40. Derek Lowe, Dodgers
41. Ben Sheets, Brewers
42. Jeff Francis, Rockies
43. Brett Myers, Phillies
44. *Yovani Gallardo, Brewers
45. Oliver Perez, Mets
46. Chien-Ming Wang, Yankees
47. Zack Greinke, Royals
48. Clay Buchholz, Red Sox
49. Scott Baker, Twins
50. Phil Hughes, Yankees
51. Joe Blanton, Athletics
NOTE: Be careful with road turns.
52. Kelvim Escobar, Angels
53. Gil Meche, Royals
54. Andy Pettitte, Yankees
55. Tom Gorzelanny, Pirates
56. Hiroki Kuroda, Dodgers
57. Jon Garland, Angels
NOTE: Mild bump in new city.
58. Dontrelle Willis, Tigers
59. Matt Garza, Rays
60. Boof Bonser, Twins
61. Greg Maddux, Padres
62. Andy Sonnanstine, Rays
63. Barry Zito, Giants
64. Shaun Marcum, Blue Jays
65. Randy Johnson, Diamondbacks
66. Kevin Slowey, Twins
67. Rich Harden, Athletics
68. Ubaldo Jimenez, Rockies
NOTE: Exciting arm, and Coors is tamer.
69. Brian Bannister, Royals
70. Jeremy Guthrie, Orioles
71. Jake Westbrook, Indians
72. Randy Wolf, Padres
73. Jonathan Sanchez, Giants
74. Mark Prior, Padres
75. Franklin Morales, Rockies
76. *Scott Olsen, Marlins
77. Doug Davis, Diamondbacks
78. Daniel Cabrera, Orioles
NOTE: Mazzone got nowhere with him.
79. Ian Kennedy, Yankees
80. Mark Buehrle, White Sox
81. Jon Lester, Red Sox
82. Wandy Rodriguez, Astros
83. Nate Robertson, Tigers
84. Kevin Correia, Giants
85. Homer Bailey, Reds
86. Tim Redding, Senators
87. Shawn Hill, Senators
88. Micah Owings, Diamondbacks
89. Justin Duchscherer, Athletics
90. *Chad Gaudin, Athletics
91. Andrew Miller, Marlins
92. Kenny Rogers, Tigers
93. Tom Glavine, Braves
94. Chris Sampson, Astros
95. *Sergio Mitre, Marlins
96. *Chuck James, Braves
97. John Danks, White Sox
98. Joel Pineiro, Cardinals
99. David Bush, Brewers
100. Kyle Kendrick, Phillies
101. Jair Jurrjens, Braves
102. Garrett Olson, Orioles
103. Brandon Backe, Astros
104. Shawn Chacon, Astros
105. Anthony Reyes, Cardinals
106. Brandon McCarthy, Rangers
107. Jason Bergmann, Senators
108. Adam Loewen, Orioles
109. Ryan Dempster, Cubs
110. Jeff Suppan, Brewers
111. Cliff Lee, Indians
112. Miguel Batista, Mariners
113. Tim Wakefield, Red Sox
114. Jon Lieber, Cubs
115. Joe Saunders, Angels
116. Jeremy Affeldt, Reds
117. Paul Maholm, Pirates
118. Jose Contreras, White Sox
119. Ervin Santana, Angels
120. Jarrod Washburn, Mariners
121. Chris Capuano, Brewers
122. Bartolo Colon, Red Sox
123. *Curt Schilling, Red Sox
124. Carlos Silva, Mariners
125. John Patterson, Senators
NOTE: Talent not an issue, durability is.
126. Aaron Cook, Rockies
127. Zach Duke, Pirates
NOTE: Things in place for mild recovery.
128. Orlando Hernandez, Mets
129. *Chris Carpenter, Cardinals
130. Justin Germano, Padres
131. Jesse Litsch, Blue Jays
132. Aaron Laffey, Indians
133. Mike Mussina, Yankees
134. Mike Pelfrey, Mets
135. Matt Chico, Senators
NOTE: Chico, don't be discouraged.
136. Odalis Perez, Senators
137. Dana Eveland, Athletics
138. Edwin Jackson, Rays
139. Jason Jennings, Rangers
140. Edinson Volquez, Reds
141. Adam Eaton, Phillies
142. Kason Gabbard, Rangers
143. Josh Fogg, Reds
144. Jamie Moyer, Phillies
145. Brett Tomko, Royals
146. Matt Belisle, Reds
147. Livan Hernandez, Twins
148. Mark Mulder, Cardinals
149. Matt Morris, Pirates
150. Jason Schmidt, Dodgers
NOTE: A contract club will regret.
151. Paul Byrd, Indians
152. Jason Marquis, Cubs
153. Jeff Weaver, Free Agent
154. Claudio Vargas, Brewers
155. Gavin Floyd, White Sox
156. Sean Marshall, Cubs
157. Kyle Lohse, Free Agent
158. Kevin Millwood, Rangers
159. *Noah Lowry, Giants
160. Matt Clement, Cardinals
161. Jo-Jo Reyes, Braves
162. John Lannan, Senators
163. Jorge de la Rosa, Royals
164. Brian Burres, Orioles
165. Vicente Padilla, Rangers
166. Josh Towers, Rockies
167. Gustavo Chacin, Blue Jays
168. Mark Hendrickson, Marlins
169. Jason Hirsh, Rockies
170. David Wells, Free Agent
171. Braden Looper, Cardinals
Relief Pitchers
1. Jonathan Papelbon, Red Sox
2. J.J. Putz, Mariners
NOTE: Last was strong, but 2006 was sublime.
3. Mariano Rivera, Yankees
4. Billy Wagner, Mets
5. Joe Nathan, Twins
6. Francisco Rodriguez, Angels
NOTE: Succeeds despite loud mechanics.
7. Takashi Saito, Dodgers
8. Jose Valverde, Astros
9. Matt Capps, Pirates
NOTE: Value play of Top 10.
10. Manuel Corpas, Rockies
11. Bobby Jenks, White Sox
12. Huston Street, Athletics
13. Francisco Cordero, Reds
14. Joakim Soria, Royals
15. Rafael Soriano, Braves
16. *Brad Lidge, Phillies
17. Todd Jones, Tigers
18. Jason Isringhausen, Cardinals
19. Chad Cordero, Senators
20. Trevor Hoffman, Padres
21. Brian Wilson, Giants
NOTE: It's his gig to start.
22. Joe Borowski, Indians
23. Kevin Gregg, Marlins
24. Eric Gagne, Brewers
25. George Sherrill, Orioles
26. Brandon Lyon, Diamondbacks
27. Carlos Marmol, Cubs
28. *B.J. Ryan, Blue Jays
NOTE: Tough club to get info from.
29. Troy Percival, Rays
30. Joba Chamberlain, Yankees
31. Jonathan Broxton, Dodgers
32. Jeremy Accardo, Blue Jays
33. Tony Pena, Diamondbacks
34. Tom Gordon, Phillies
35. Eddie Guardado, Rangers
36. C.J. Wilson, Rangers
37. Kerry Wood, Cubs
NOTE: So far, so good.
38. Joaquin Benoit, Rangers
39. David Riske, Brewers
40. Heath Bell, Padres
41. Rafael Betancourt, Indians
42. Bob Howry, Cubs
43. Chad Qualls, Diamondbacks
NOTE: Decent sleeper if Lyon falters.
44. Luis Ayala, Senators
45. Al Reyes, Rays
46. Jamie Walker, Orioles
47. Pat Neshek, Twins
48. Alan Embree, Athletics
49. Aaron Heilman, Mets
50. Jon Rauch, Senators
51. Scot Shields, Angels
52. Hideki Okajima, Red Sox
NOTE: Hitters will adjust in second season.
53. Dan Wheeler, Rays
54. Derrick Turnbow, Brewers
55. Jason Frasor, Blue Jays
56. Casey Janssen, Blue Jays
57. James Hoey, Orioles
58. Damaso Marte, Pirates
59. Brian Fuentes, Rockies
60. Octavio Dotel, White Sox
61. Brad Hennessey, Giants
62. Chad Bradford, Orioles
63. Scott Linebrink, White Sox
64. Carlos Villanueva, Brewers
65. Pedro Feliciano, Mets
66. Cla Meredith, Padres
67. Matt Guerrier, Twins
68. Juan Cruz, Diamondbacks
69. Mike Wuertz, Cubs
70. Taylor Tankersley, Marlins
NOTE: Good idea for late rounds.
71. Joel Peralta, Royals
72. Scott Downs, Blue Jays
73. Chris Schroder, Senators
74. Santiago Casilla, Athletics
75. Peter Moylan, Braves
76. Jensen Lewis, Indians
77. Manny Delcarmen, Red Sox
78. Jesse Crain, Twins
79. Masahide Kobayashi, Indians
80. Patrick Misch, Giants
81. Julian Tavarez, Red Sox
82. Fernando Rodney, Tigers
83. Rafael Perez, Indians
84. Bill Bray, Reds
85. Keith Foulke, Athletics
86. Brandon League, Blue Jays
87. Ryan Madson, Phillies
88. David Weathers, Reds
89. Byung-Hyun Kim, Pirates
11:17 AM Mon, Mar 10, 2008 | Permalink |
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By Mike McDermott Email
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By Rob Steingall
Monitoring unsettled bullpens each spring is a good way to identify late-round bargains in your fantasy draft. If you’re like me and can’t justify reaching for an “elite” closer in a mixed league, have a look at these shaky closers and potential replacements as scrap-heap gems. Listed below are a few situations in the National League that should be watched closely this spring.
Arizona Diamondbacks
Favorite: Brandon Lyon was announced by Bob Melvin as Arizona's closer in early February. The team hopes he'll replace Jose Valverde's 47 saves from '07. Lyon posted a 2.68 ERA and 1.24 WHIP last season, but faltered badly in his first attempts as a closer in '03 and '05.
Keep an eye on: Tony Pena, who Melvin said would battle Lyon for the job this spring, should be next in line if Lyon reverts back to his old ninth-inning form. Pena posted a 3.27 ERA last season while striking out 63 batters in 85 1/3 innings. Juan Cruz's power arsenal
(87 strikeouts in 61 innings) fits the closer bill, but he starts the year working the seventh inning.
Darkhorse: Chad Qualls, one of the players who came over in the Valverde deal, saved five games for the Astros last season and struck out three times as many as he walked.
Chicago Cubs
Favorite: Lou Pinella indicated early in spring training that Bob Howry was the favorite, despite the thought that Kerry Wood was re-signed this offseason to close. Howry posted a 3.32 ERA last season, striking out 72 in 81.1 innings primarily as a setup man.
Keep an eye on: Carlos Marmol's electric stuff (1.43 ERA and 96 strikeouts in 69.1 IP) should make him a natural fit to close once the above mentioned prove ineffective (Howry) and unreliable (Wood). Marmol was brilliant in the Dominican league playoffs this winter, striking out 19 in 12 innings, helping lead his team to the championship series. He says he wants the job.
Darkhorse: Wood has the arsenal of pitches to be successful as a closer, but his track record indicates he is no lock to pitch an entire year without visiting the DL for an extended period of time.
San Francisco Giants
Favorite: Brian Wilson has always had the stuff to close: mid-90s fastball/power slider combo. But control issues held him back (1.77 WHIP in '06). During the last month of '07, Wilson converted 4 of 5 save opportunities, giving the Giants brass a sense of optimism heading into '08. He finished the year posting a 2.28 ERA and 0.97 WHIP in 23.2 innings.
Keep an eye on: Brad Hennessey, who closed for a good portion of '07, could step in if Wilson stumbles out of the gate. Hennessey saved 19 games for the Giants last season. He’ll provide solid veteran leadership and a fallback option in the ninth this year.
Darkhorse: Kelvin Pichardo, who pitched primarily in High A and Double A ball last season, is on the 40-man roster this spring for the Giants. An AL scout who covers the NL West told us this winter that Pichardo has the stuff and attitude to quickly emerge as the Giants closer. Pichardo struck out 87 batters in 67 2/3 innings in the minors last year.
Michael Salfino contributed to this report.
11:13 AM Mon, Mar 10, 2008 | Permalink |
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By Mike McDermott Email
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By Rob Steingall
Monitoring unsettled bullpens each spring is a good way to identify late-round bargains in your fantasy draft. If you’re like me and can’t justify reaching for an “elite” closer in a mixed league, have a look at these shaky closers and potential replacements as scrap-heap gems. Listed below are a few situations in the American League that should be watched closely this spring.
Baltimore Orioles
Favorite: George Sherrill, known more as a lefty specialist during his career (.167 BA against lifetime), posted a 2.36 ERA while striking out more than a batter per inning with the Mariners in '07 prior to coming over in the Erik Bedard trade. If he truly figured out righties last season (a career-low .212 BA against), he could hold down this job for the entire season.
Keep an eye on: Jamie Walker, who saved seven games for the O’s last season, could be the first option to replace Sherrill if he struggles in the closer role. Be careful though: Walker also blew six opportunities in '07.
Darkhorse: James Hoey, who saved 16 games while posting a microscopic 0.79 ERA and 69 strikeouts in 45 2/3 innings between Double A and Triple A. Looking to rebuild, the O’s could eventually look at Hoey to see if he is the long-term solution.
Texas Rangers
Favorite: C.J. Wilson emerged last season as a reliable option for the Rangers, saving 12 of 14 games down the stretch. Much like Sherrill, he’s a lefty specialist (.112 BA against) who would be much better served in a situational role. Righties tend to give him some trouble, posting a .301 BA against him during his career.
Keep an eye on: Joaquin Benoit, who could vulture saves similar to last season, especially against teams loaded with right-handed bats. He is as volatile as they come in the ninth, blowing seven saves in '07. He’s experiencing some shoulder soreness this spring, which could factor into his early-season performance.
Darkhorse: "Everyday" Eddie Guardado brings his 183 career saves to Texas this year, and could wind up with the job if Wilson and Benoit stumble. He was pretty terrible last season in limited duty with the Reds (7.24 ERA in 13 2/3 innings), and needs a solid first month and for others to falter to get his shot.
Cleveland Indians
Favorite: Joe Borowski has a lock on the job despite posting a 5.07 ERA and 1.43 WHIP in '07. Sure, he converted 45 of 53 save opportunities, but the Indians 'pen is too good to allow him to again put up those kind of numbers with games on the line.
Keep an eye on: Rafael Betancourt (1.47 ERA, 0.76 WHIP) or Rafael Perez (1.78 ERA, 0.92 WHIP) could get a crack at the job if Borowski falters. Both pitchers strike out just over a batter per inning.
Darkhorse: Masahide Kobayashi, 33, was a closer for Japan’s Chiba Lotte Marines in '07, posting a 3.61 ERA with 27 saves. Japanese relievers have had good success in the majors (Takashi Saito, Hideki Okajima, Akinori Otsuka and even back to Kaz Sasaki), making Kobayashi a strong sleeper candidate.
Michael Salfino contributed to this report.
4:06 PM Fri, Mar 07, 2008 | Permalink |
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By Mike McDermott Email
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By David Ferris
March is about Grapefruit and Cactus scouting, sure, but it’s also about getting a handle on how our opponents think and how we can exploit their biases. With that idea in mind, let’s see how the current marketplace flows in the junior circuit.
Batters
BUY
Alex Gordon, 3B, Royals – He performed like a $20 player over the final four months of 2007, and you won’t be taxed for the sneaky 15-20 bases he’s likely to swipe. In more-competitive groups there might be a moderate bidding war on Gordon, but in more relaxed pools you’ll be able to snag him for a marked discount. Either way, he’s recommended in this space.
Akinori Iwamura, 2B/3B, Rays – He didn’t bring a lot of pop in his first season stateside, but he’s got a keen eye and underrated wheels, and he’ll qualify at two positions in 2008. It’s not a sexy pick by any means, but Iwamura is a nice depth play and someone who will earn at least what he costs the second time around.
SELL
Joe Crede, 3B, White Sox – He’s struggled with the glove and the bat from the first day of spring, and Josh Fields essentially has the starting job to lose, anyway. Crede needs to put a string of solid games together before he gets his street cred back.
Evan Longoria, 3B, Rays – Long-term, the can’t-miss label applies. But for 2007, we can’t be sure he’ll even be on the Opening Day roster; keep in mind this is someone with just 31 Triple-A games under his belt. Anyone who bids on Longoria with visions of Ryan Braun 2007 dancing in their heads is setting themselves up for a significant loss. "Evan Almighty" is a great idea for keeper groups, but stay skeptical in redraft leagues.
Jacoby Ellsbury, OF, Red Sox – He’s fast, he’s popular, he’s already got a ring, and he sure looked fantastic last September and October. But until the Red Sox decide what to do with Coco Crisp and Ellsbury, the expectant tag that’s been slapped on the kid makes him a shaky value for fantasy leaguers. October heroes generally don’t hold their value as much as we’d like the following March, especially when they play for a public outfit like the Old Towne Team.
HOLD
Magglio Ordonez, OF, Tigers – He’s not going to hit .363 again and the odometer just turned to 34, but don’t be worried about an injury risk that isn’t there – Ordonez has suited up for 312 games the last two seasons. Just by staying on the field, Ordonez becomes a very safe investment; the Tigers have assembled arguably the best lineup in baseball, Comerica Park is no longer death value for hitters, and Ordonez enjoys a cushy batting slot, wedged between Gary Sheffield and Miguel Cabrera.
Pitchers
BUY
Boof Bonser, SP, Twins – He’s shown flashes of No. 2 stuff – witness the 95 strikeouts in the first half of 2007 – and we also like the 35 pounds he dropped in the offseason. Bid on the tidy ERA and ratio we saw in 2006, get ready for a full season of "Teen Wolf" jokes, and give Boof a shot.
Dontrelle Willis, SP, Tigers – The stat profile from Florida has plenty of storm clouds in it, but Willis will get far better offensive and defensive support with his new mates, and we’ve seen him click on Jim Leyland’s watch before. D-Train’s missteps with the Marlins make him set up for profit here, and early reports on his velocity have been positive.
Daisuke Matsuzaka, SP, Red Sox – You know expectations are high when you return 15 wins and 201 strikeouts and everyone turns up their nose. One year removed from the buzz, consider the 2007 stats a baseline and bid the extra dollar here.
SELL
C.J. Wilson, RP, Rangers – A nagging biceps injury pushes him down in the closer race, leaving Eddie Guardado and Joaquin Benoit to get the first chances in the ninth inning.
Huston Street, RP, Athletics – He’s proven to be a high-maintenance pitcher of late and there’s no guarantee Oakland holds onto him all year even if he’s physically capable. Be careful what you dial up here – Fascination Street could quickly turn into Shakedown Street.
HOLD
Todd Jones, RP, Tigers – He’s a soft-serve closer who needs three-run leads and at-em balls to be successful. That said, Jones has a team that will get him into position over and over, and Jim Leyland has always been a believer in the veteran. So long as you’re not watching Jones pitch-to-pitch, you’ll be able to live with his moderately priced 30-plus saves. Keep in mind the Tigers don’t have a healthy challenger to the throne right now.
3:47 PM Thu, Mar 06, 2008 | Permalink |
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By David Ferris
Public perception is a significant part of unscrambling the madness of player values in March. With one eye on the talent and anther eye on the competition, here’s a glance at the current state of the marketplace.
Batters
BUY
Kevin Kouzmanoff, 3B, Padres – His home park does him no favors, but he’s really a line-drive hitter anyway, a pretty close replication to Nomar Garciaparra (down to the uniform number). Kouzmanoff might begin the year hitting third for the Friars, backed up by another young corner stud, Adrian Gonzalez. You’ll get a modest post-hype discount in most leagues on Kouzmanoff.
Corey Hart, OF, Brewers – No need to crack sunglasses jokes here, just make sure you’re the guy bidding the extra buck. It’s rare to see a 6-for-6 guy who can fill all five categories. But here’s an exception to the rule -- and the Brewers finally got the memo that he should be playing every day. Last year’s haul (.295-86-24-81-23) is the baseline; your return might be a lot higher.
SELL
Todd Helton, 1B, Rockies – The Colorado undertow isn’t as strong as it used to be, and there’s plenty of air slipping out of the tires on Helton, too. He hasn’t topped 20 homers or 95 runs over the last three seasons, and he turns 35 this summer. Let someone else overpay for the still-strong name brand.
Joey Votto, 1B, Reds – In another city or with a different manager, I’d be bullish. But Dusty Baker is already pushing the wrong buttons with the kid – trying to retool Votto’s patient approach at the plate – and I see potholes in the road ahead. We’ll make a giant profit on Votto in a year or two, but I don’t like the current setup.
HOLD
Rickie Weeks, 2B, Brewers – His mad run over the final quarter of 2007 (11 homers, 15 steals, .442 on-base percentage) didn’t go completely unnoticed, so we’re paying a premium for his services at the table this month. I’m still willing to cut the check; even with the batting-average risk that’s at play here, I see a guy who’s going to walk a fair amount, run liberally and knock a few over the wall. The confidence has been restored; all we need now is a full season of health.
Jeff Francoeur, OF, Braves – A lot of statheads hold his approach against him – see the ball, swing the bat, hit the ball. But Francouer’s numbers continue to improve and he’s still just 24. We haven’t seen anything close to his best season yet, and he’s capable of adding 10-12 steals that won’t be factored into the out-the-door price.
Pitchers
BUY
John Maine, SP, Mets – The final two months of 2007 got some fantasy players off the case. But I see a reliable righty with three good pitches, backed by a strong offense and a pitcher-friendly park. Maine misses more bats than most realize, finishing sixth in the NL in strikeouts last year.
Ian Snell, SP, Pirates – He’d cost $3-5 more on a contender, but we’ll happily take values anywhere we can get them. Snell’s nine wins last year were a fluke – he grabbed 14 the previous season – and he’ll make a run at 200 strikeouts this time around if he can keep his wing healthy for six months.
Adam Wainwright, SP, Cardinals – It took him a while to adjust to the rotation in 2007, but he quietly had things together in the second half of the year (2.71 ERA, 77 strikeouts over 99.2 innings). Here’s a $20 arm that won’t cost you anywhere near that.
SELL
Roy Oswalt, SP, Astros – His strikeout count has dropped for three straight years while the innings keep piling up (911 over four years). His ratio sailed to 1.33 last season. Usually this is a safe place to pay for your ace, but I’ll take my business elsewhere.
Brad Penny, SP, Dodgers – Congratulations if you ran with his 208 innings in 2007, just keep in mind that Penny last topped the 200 mark in 2001. Setting a bid price on the 2007 resume is setting yourself up to fail.
HOLD
Carlos Marmol, RP, Cubs – He’s got the electric stuff you want for the ninth inning (96 strikeouts in 69 innings last year), and Kerry Wood hasn’t had the best push-off to camp. If you need to speculate on a Chicago closer this weekend, Marmol is the stock to bid on.
12:09 PM Wed, Mar 05, 2008 | Permalink |
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By Mike McDermott Email
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By Michael Salfino
One of the things that makes us human is the ease with which we spot patterns, whether or not they actually exist.
When a baseball player comes off great or lousy season, we quickly conjure convincing reasons why that trend will continue. But why can’t the last year’s bums highlighted below, for example, merely be the product of some random performance variance?
Here’s where general managers (real ones and their fantasy counterparts), writers and even run-of-the-mill baseball fans screw up. A player who is in his 30s has a bad year and suddenly we notice how his on-base plus slugging percentage (OPS) declined mildly the two years before. Now we have a pattern. Slugger X is done. At a minimum, there is but a lottery-ticket’s chance he recaptures past glory.
Or a highly regarded player bursts on the scene only to struggle mightily, or even falters from the start. That guy is labeled a toolsy bum who almost certainly will never amount to anything. Think Reds second baseman Brandon Phillips, just before he put up two-straight All-Star caliber seasons.
Almost all big leaguers are capable of stretches of greatness that can last weeks, months or even a full season. And great players can perform terribly for similar stretches due to minor physical problems or the inability to make relatively slight mechanical adjustments. The psychological aspect of performance is largely unchartered territory. But who would doubt that a crisis of confidence resulting from an extended slump can be quickly lifted with just a few lucky bounces, even if a trip to the shrink doesn’t work?
Of course, we must look deeply at the stats to spot trends that may provide the foundation for future performance. Skills, though, can never be ignored. The right stats, such as those we highlight here each week, place a brighter spotlight on skills than the common averages and counting categories we see in boxscores and in our fantasy standings.
I will stipulate there’s good chance the following players will continue to disappoint. Perhaps that’s even likely. But the odds are closer to a coin flip than we think. Many of these guys get discounted as if there’s only some nominal chance they will rebound. And almost all of the handful of optimistic projections are still depressed because they are based on that terrible 2007. There’s a decent chance, though, that last season’s bottom line will be largely irrelevant.
So let’s put a “Buy” on all of these bums:
Ronny Paulino, C, Pirates: His line-drive percentage declined more than five percentage points, from 22.6 percent of batted balls to 17.2 percent. Almost all line drives are hits. That 2006 figure is well above average. Paulino’s other numbers were remarkably consistent relative to ’06. His power spiked significantly without hitting more flyballs, thus not affecting his batting-average prospects.
Carlos Delgado, 1B, Mets: He’s a great slugger: 37th all-time in homers. Last year, his rate of homers on fly balls declined from about 24 percent to 13. Jim Thome went from the low 20s to the 12s back up to the mid-20s, right around Delgado’s age. Many of the sluggers around Delgado on the all-time homer list rebounded at or past his age, and few of the others were done at 35.
Rickie Weeks, 2B, Brewers: The walks are closing ground on the strikeouts. But he’s hitting more flyballs, which hurts batting average. If he moves his line-drive percentage back up to the 20 percent it was in ’05 and ’06, and nothing else changes, he hits about .255.
Miguel Tejada, SS, Astros: The ground-ball rate is up, rate of homers on fly balls down. So it’s wise to be skeptical of projections of more than 20 homers. But he continues to hit well with runners in scoring position and can again rise well over .300 if his line-drive rate spikes to 2006 levels (22 percent).
Billy Hall, 3B, Brewers: The homer rate in 2006 (19.2 percent of fly balls) looks like the outlier for sure. But Hall should just now be entering his power peak at age 28. No one is giving him much more than 20 homers, so you don’t have to pay anything for the chance he again pops 30-plus.
Jason Bay, OF, Pirates: The speed looks shot and the plug has been pulled on the power: homers on just a league-average 11 percent of fly balls last year (20 percent in 2006). He always was well above in generating hits on batted balls, but was below last year.
Barry Zito, P, Giants: He was above to well above average always in stranding baserunners. Last year, he was below: just over 30 percent of them scored. I’m sure there was some bad bullpen luck in there. He’s in a great pitching environment, so expect him to perform as he did for the A’s, minus the wins because the Giants can’t score.
10:06 AM Wed, Mar 05, 2008 | Permalink |
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By Mike McDermott Email
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By David Ferris
All rankings assume 5x5 format (for hitters: average, runs, home runs, RBI, stolen bases)
* = check status
Last Updated: 3/4
First Base
1. Ryan Howard, Phillies
2. Prince Fielder, Brewers
3. Mark Teixeira, Braves
NOTE: His best year is yet to come.
4. *Albert Pujols, Cardinals
NOTE: Health concerns cloud the issue.
5. David Ortiz, Red Sox
10:05 AM Wed, Mar 05, 2008 | Permalink |
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By Mike McDermott Email
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By David Ferris
All rankings assume 5x5 format (for pitchers: wins, saves, strikeouts, ERA, ratio).
* = check status
Last Updated: 3/4
Starting Pitchers
1. Johan Santana, Mets
2. Jake Peavy, Padres
3. Erik Bedard, Mariners
UPGRADE: Moves to friendlier side of the league.
4. Brandon Webb, Diamondbacks
5. C.C. Sabathia, Indians
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