NL new faces in new places
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February 2008 ArchivesFebruary 27
By Michael Salfino The most important pre-draft mission for any fantasy player is to catch up on faces in new places. New zip codes often mean new roles in significantly different playing environments. That causes us to reassess likely value and thus what we’ll pay in our drafts and auctions come March. Here we look at players on new teams in the NL and whether to expect more or less return on investment relative to 2007. Upgrade Brad Lidge, P, Phillies: This year, he’s got a vote of confidence that actually might mean something. Lidge can strike out 12 guys per nine innings and totally dominate. Of course, he can flake out and give up four runs any outing, too. But that’s true of almost all closers. Park effects matter less for guys who miss bats. (Note: Lidge will miss three to six weeks after having surgery Monday on his right knee.) Kosuke Fukudome, OF, Cubs: Will he bat second, third or fifth? I’d guess second, as his on-base percentage should most easily translate to the majors. His Japanese power needs to be discounted to the high teens in the U.S. Don’t bid expecting steals, but hope for low double digits. If things break perfectly, Fukudome will put up numbers similar to Baltimore’s Nick Markakis last year. Andruw Jones, OF, Dodgers: He’s a cancer for your team batting average, but bad luck exacerbated things last year. His average on balls of play should be .260, not .240 – even with all those flyballs. The power decline was shocking last year: from more than 20 percent homers on flyballs to 13 percent (just over league average). I’ll bet that was a fluke, too. Eric Gagne, P, Brewers: He’s got a lot of fleas; but those are the closers you win with in fantasy baseball. Hope he keeps them this spring with some ineffective, but healthy outings. Then, buy low. Johan Santana, P, Mets: His ERA should have been about 2.87 last year with some average luck/defense. That’s his floor on the Mets. The expectation is about 2.50 and I’ll go an extra buck or two hoping for an ERA in the very low 2.00s. Facing the pitcher two or three times per game should raise his K total to a major-league leading 270. Lastings Milledge, OF, Nationals: There’s upside here, especially given the new stadium in Washington, which is certain to be more hitter-friendly. A 20/20 season would not shock me. He’s not a tall guy, though, and thus lacks leverage on his swing. He compensates with vicious cuts, which curtail batting average. Elijah Dukes, OF, Nationals: The only thing more scary than Dukes’ rap sheet is the idea of him sitting on the reserve roster of the biggest shark in your home league. An AL East scout told me this winter that Dukes has more talent than any player in baseball. No change Danny Haren, P, Diamondbacks: He goes from a park that depressed scoring by 17 percent (Oakland’s McAfee Stadium) to one that boosted it by about 11 percent. Does that wipe out expected gains from moving to the NL, where teams scored about three percent less runs? At a minimum. Even if you assume Haren pitches exactly like he did for the A’s in the American League last year, someone else will surely pay more. Tom Glavine, P, Braves: He’s a dollar guy in the end game in most mixed leagues. Glavine has been pitching without stuff for so long that he doesn’t need much to win 13 games with an ERA in the low 4.00s. Ryan Church, OF, Mets: He’s a middling guy in a good lineup. But with little speed and just marginal power, Church should be no more than a fifth outfielder in most mixed formats. Mark Prior, P, Padres: At some point, the price gets so low that the player is almost all upside. Prior is trading like a penny stock in lots of mixed leagues. You’re going to throw a few bucks away on someone, why not on a guy who might be someone else’s lottery ticket. Downgrade Jim Edmonds, OF, Padres: The clowns have taken off the makeup. The animals are back in their cages. The circus trucks are backing up and heading out of town. It’s time for Jim to call it a career and go home. Paul Lo Duca, C, Nationals: He’s living proof that steroids don’t help you hit homers. Now Lo Duca’s average is in downward spiral given his age and high catching mileage. Jose Valverde, P, Astros: Houston’s new closer is neither as good as he was last year for Arizona nor as bad as he was in 2006. When his rate of hits allowed on balls of play normalizes to about 30 percent (it was 26 percent last year, 36 percent in 2006), he’ll be a middling closer given that high walk rate. Francisco Cordero, P, Reds: He goes from about a neutral park to one that allowed 9 percent more runs than average. But he was a little unlucky last year in allowing runs. Still, can he maintain the 50-percent cut in his walk rate from his half season with the Brewers in ’06? He also improved his K-rate by 30 percent and was too old (32) for such a transformation. Andrew Miller, P, Marlins: Let someone else speculate on rookie hurlers. The best policy is to expect them to take their lumps, as do even most of the ones that ultimately turn out great. If you see some signs of domination in the K department, buy low in-season after a bad outing. Miguel Tejada, SS, Astros: He’s sort of Derek Jeter without the speed now. His power has been average-to-slightly above since 2005 when measured by percentage of fly balls that clear the wall. And he’s become more ground-ball prone three straight years. Hiroki Kuroda, SP, Dodgers: The Japanese imports who pitch in relief tend to work out. Those who start like Kuroda need to be steeply discounted until a couple of guys buck that trend. Aaron Rowand, OF, Giants: Park Factors 101: Rowand leaves Philly, where righty hitters like him smacked 45 percent more homers than in the average park. His new digs in San Francisco depressed them by 26 percent. Rowand hit 17 homers in Philly last year, 10 on the road. Expect seven at home and 10 on the road this year. In other words: fifth fantasy outfielder. Troy Glaus, 3B, Cardinals: The Cardinals traded one injury risk (Scott Rolen) for another, who at least should be on speaking terms with the manager. Glaus leaves a great hitters park for a poor one. A healthy Glaus hits 25 to 30 homers, tops, in St. Louis. Health is far from a guarantee. Tad Iguchi, 2B, Padres: Forget about any plus-power in Petco. No manager attempted fewer steals last year than Bud Black. Nothing of value is left for Iguchi owners. 
By Michael Salfino The most important pre-draft mission for any fantasy player is to catch up on faces in new places. New zip codes often mean new roles in significantly different playing environments. That causes us to reassess likely value and thus what we’ll pay in our drafts and auctions come March. Here we look at players on new teams in the AL and whether to expect more or less return on investment relative to 2007. Upgrade Miguel Cabrera, OF, Tigers: He’s Manny Ramirez in his prime. In other words, one of the handful of top righty hitters ever, now and for the foreseeable future. His most similar hitters through age 24 (according to BaseballReference.com): Hank Aaron, Frank Robinson, Orlando Cepeda. There’s a chance he eats himself out of the league one day, but no worries about that now. His indifferent fielding is of no fantasy consequence. Luke Scott, OF, Orioles: He’s a hitter with promise (over a .500 slugging percentage two straight years) who is going to a park neutral for lefty power. But he’ll turn 30 this year, so there’s not room for growth. Scott hit lefties about as well as righties last year, but was mostly platooned. He’ll play almost every day for the O’s and should be a solid value in every format. Carlos Gomez, OF, Twins: Bill James says .271/.327/.392 in the Bill James Handbook. That gets him 500 at-bats in Minnesota. Of course, he could press and slump early and get sent down to AAA for more seasoning. There’s 50-steal upside here (former Mets teammates say he’s faster than Jose Reyes). Pay for 30 bags and you probably get him almost everywhere. Scott Rolen, 3B, Blue Jays: His shoulder is surgically repaired. He’s also going from a poor hitter’s park to a great one. That alone should increase his homer total by 5-to-7. I’d worry that he’ll wear down in the second half. But you’ll get some great stats in the meantime and be able to sell at a nifty profit before then. John Garland, P, Angels: Though it bucked the trend last year, Angel Stadium has played as slight pitcher’s park in suppressing runs while U.S. Cellular, where Garland had toiled, increases it by 8 percent. The expectation should be a 10-percent decrease in ERA, as his bullpen will be a lot better, too. Expect an ERA in the high 3.00s, well worth rostering considering the Angels will help Garland win about 15 games. Nick Swisher, OF, White Sox: He hit 8 homers at home and 14 on the road last year. This year, expect at least 20 at home and 35 homers overall. He’s also in his age 27 season, which increases the chances for a career year and, in his new friendly home digs, the possibility of 40 bombs. Masahide Kobayashi, P, Indians: Joe Borowski piled up saves last year, but showed little stuff (5.07 ERA, 1.43 WHIP). Expect him to falter at some point in the first half and for the Indians to turn to Kobayashi, who shined in the closer’s role in Japan. These Japanese closers have mostly translated very nicely. Erik Bedard, P, Mariners: The move to Seattle makes him more attractive. He goes to a pitcher’s park and trades six starts against the Red Sox and Yanks for six against the Rangers and A’s. Don’t bid expecting more than 200 innings though. George Sherrill, P, Orioles: We’ve profiled Adam Jones in our rookies’ piece. But Sherrill is the sneaky get here, as he’ll likely close for the Orioles given that Chris Ray and Danys Baez won’t pitch in ’08. Sherrill is simply a better and more dominant hurler (10.5 Ks per nine innings) than fellow lefty Jamie Walker, who is 36. Sherrill also had no problem with righties in ’07. Carlos Silva, P, Mariners: His K-rate spiked last year to almost acceptable levels. Really though, with Silva’s great control, anything more than four Ks per nine innings is going to give you league-average results. Safeco Field earns its name as a safe place to park fantasy innings. Yes, the Mariners have very questionable outfield defense but, like Bedard, Silva is a groundball-prone pitcher. Troy Percival, P, Rays: I like closers with fleas because they’re cheap and because it’s pretty easy to get three outs with a two- or three-run lead. But Percival really pushes the envelope for me. He’s the leader in the clubhouse in the battle for Rays saves. No Change Josh Hamilton, OF, Rangers: Great talent and great power in a homer- friendly environment. He’ll start, too. But the huge caveat is that he’s had a long history of substance abuse and other off-field problems and thus is one bad day away from being banished again from baseball. Fantasy owners should never be too optimistic about human nature. Root for the person; be wary of the player. Orlando Cabrera, SS, White Sox: He’s at the age where we start to worry about a decline in steals. But he’s going to Chicago, where Ozzie Guillen wants to manufacture runs. Still, Mike Scioscia ran more than any AL manager, so we can’t give Cabrera more steals after the move from Anaheim; .280-10-65-20 sounds reasonable. Torii Hunter, OF, Angels: He was signed to bat cleanup behind Vlad Guerrero. That’s a sweet place to be. Garret Anderson is still capable of protecting Hunter in the five hole. At age 32, we expect a little more power and lots less speed. But the Angels like to run. So .280-30-115-15 sounds reasonable. Brendan Harris, 2B, Twins: He’s got a little upside if you punt on one of your middle-infield spots. Harris has moderate pop (.434 slugging with 35 doubles) and won’t get you anywhere in steals. But he did look very professional at the plate last year, despite his poor track record heading into ’07. Jason Bartlett, SS, Rays: He’s the best fielding shortstop in the AL, replacing Harris, who was the worst. All Rays starters get a boost as a result. Bartlett needs to steal 25 bases to have any value as a hitter, as his power is strictly pop-gun. But he was 23-for-26 last year and the Rays should be aggressive. Delmon Young, OF, Twins: He’s not nearly as good yet as everyone thought he’d be. But guys who do anything of note at Young’s age very often end up being great. For 2008, though, Young is a guy who is not going to help much in the counting categories and won’t hit .300 given his poor plate discipline (24 non-intentional walks in 670-plus plate appearances last year). Downgrade Dontrelle Willis, P, Tigers: He was in a better pitching park last year, threw horribly there (5.28 ERA) and also pitched terribly on the road. Now he’s in the tougher league. Think Steve Avery, another lefty who looked all world at first before quickly flaming out. Edgar Renteria, SS, Tigers: Carlos Guillen is now the first baseman. Renteria will bat seventh in a potent Tigers’ lineup. But that placement hurts him, as does hitting ahead of Jacque Jones, who scares no one. Renteria would make a better No. 2 hitter than Placido Polanco, but don’t expect a change because Polanco can’t plausibly hit anywhere else. Matt Garza, P, Rays: The Rays have a decent lineup and, this year, an acceptable defense. The bullpen is still a major question mark. Garza didn’t dominate as expected in Triple A last year, but held his own as a Twin. I think he’ll make a fine No. 3 starter one day. But that’s not enough upside to speculate on while he’s still learning the ropes.
By Rob Steingall In the middle or late rounds of mixed league drafts, owners must decide whether to draft a veteran player on the decline who may give you league average numbers or instead opt for a promising rookie. Here’s the lowdown on top NL rookies and where you can expect to see them drafted in 12 team mixed formats. Average draft placement (ADP) data for mixed leagues comes courtesy of our friends at mockdraftcentral.com. Jay Bruce, OF, Reds (ADP: 287): In terms of prospect hype, Jay Bruce is this year’s Alex Gordon. He tore through the minors in 2007, going from High A to AAA on his way to being named Minor League Player of the Year by Baseball America. Bruce hits for average (.319 in 521 ABs), gets on base (.375 OBP) and will steal some bases given the opportunity (8 SB in ‘07, 19 SB in ‘06). If he wins the center field job this spring, expect .285 with 25 homers and 15 steals in the NL’s fourth most hitter-friendly park. He’s the sexy pick for NL Rookie of the Year, and is a worthwhile selection in the late rounds. Colby Rasmus, OF, Cardinals (ADP: 314): With the trade of Jim Edmonds, the road has been paved for Rasmus to start in center for the Cards this spring. Still raw as a prospect, Rasmus could help owners similar to how Arizona’s Chris Young did in ‘07. Rasmus possesses plus power (29 HRs in AA last season), a solid ability to get on base (.381 OBP) and an element of speed (18 steals) that has been lacking in St. Louis for years. He’s a batting average risk, but still a worthwhile grab very late given his skill set. Joey Votto, 1B, Reds (ADP: 285): If you’re looking for a player flying way under the fantasy radar this spring, Votto is your man. He raked when he got his cup of coffee last September (.321/4/17 in 84 ABs) -- numbers right in line with his minor league stats. He also offers deceptive speed – averaging 20 stolen bases the past two years in the minors. That’s a nice speed boost from a fantasy corner slot. It’s this Red, not Bruce, who is my pick for NL Rookie of the Year. If he slides to his ADP, he’s a huge bargain. Homer Bailey, P, Reds (ADP: 309): Yes, the Reds have a very good farm system. Bailey was considered the best of all coming into ‘07, but injuries derailed his season and he was never able to recover. Bailey is basically Phil Hughes, with a little less control, but a little better pure stuff. If he beats out fellow prospect Johnny Cueto for the fifth starter job, expect 11 wins with a 3.85 ERA, with 140 strikeouts in around 150 innings of work. Expect the Reds to play it safe with his workload. Still, he’s a great value this late in your draft. Geovany Soto, C, Cubs (ADP: 163): Never much of a prospect until last year, Soto burst on to the scene with a .353/26/109 line at AAA Iowa that earned him a call-up just in time for the playoffs. He went on to win the starting job in the postseason, setting himself up for a starting job in 2008. I predict numbers similar to those Michael Barrett posted as Cubs catcher: .280 with 15-20 homers and about 60-70 RBIs. Soto is going as early as Round 10 in some drafts (eighth among catchers). If you don’t want to use an early pick on an “elite” catcher, Soto is the guy to grab around the 10th round. Also keep an eye on: JR Towles – Houston Astros C
By Rob Steingall Here’s the lowdown on top AL rookies and where you can expect to see them drafted in 12-team mixed formats. Average draft placement (ADP) data for mixed leagues comes courtesy of our friends at MockDraftCentral.com.
By David Ferris Rankings assume a 5x5 scoring system (for hitters, that's batting average, runs scored, home runs, runs batted in and stolen bases). The next update, which will also have comments, comes on Tuesday, March 4. The ranks will be updated every week after that for the remainder of the season. First Base/DH
By David Ferris Rankings assume a 5x5 scoring system (for pitchers, we consider wins, saves, earned-run average, ratio, and strikeouts). The next update, which will also have comments, comes on Tuesday, March 4. The ranks will be updated every week after that for the remainder of the season. Starting Pitchers
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