Projo Fantasy Sports Blog

By Michael Salfino

Only face-painting Giants fans expected the Week 17 meeting between New York and New England to be a Super Bowl preview.

Despite holding a late, 12-point lead in that game, the most hotly contested yet (officially) meaningless NFL matchup ever, the Giants opened as 12-point underdogs in Super Bowl XLII.

Last month, that was the generic AFC vs. NFC Super Bowl line (no matter who ultimately played). But the Giants are a No. 5 seed from the conference that has lost four Super Bowls in a row. The Patriots are the highest-scoring, biggest-point-differential team in NFL history.

The 12-point spread is rather ho-hum. Nine teams in Super Bowl history have kicked off as at least 12-point favorites. Those teams went 6-3 straight up, with the favored Rams (2002), Packers (1998) and Colts (1969) losing outright. Back in November, the smart money was that the Patriots would be favored by at least 15 points, a mark exceeded only twice in Super Bowl history (by the 18-point favorite Niners in 1995 and 17-point favorite Colts in 1969; the Niners beat the Chargers 49-26 and the Colts were, of course, upset by the Jets 16-7).

The Vegas market is telling us that the Patriots peaked too soon. While remaining unbeaten, they've won by less than 11 points in six of their last eight games. And they last looked dominant way back on November 18, when they waxed Buffalo, 56-10.

In the playoffs, the Patriots were rescued by their offense against Jacksonville and by their defense on Sunday versus the Chargers. That can be seen as evidence of being able to win on both sides of the ball. But how much credit should the Patriots defense get for Sunday now that we know QB Philip Rivers was playing with the torn ACL he suffered the prior week? Norv Turner playing a QB with such a significant injury might be the dumbest coaching decision in NFL playoff history. Why even have a backup if the starter plays with a torn ACL?

Meanwhile, the Giants showed enough strength Sunday in frosty Green Bay to win by at least double digits. The Packers were 1-for-10 on third down. The Giants offense didn't turn the ball over once. New York had 116 more yards from scrimmage and was better in the red zone while making more red zone trips. And they dominated the clock with 60 move plays (runs plus completions) to just 33 for Green Bay. Still, they needed overtime to ultimately prevail.

When we look at the stat sheet for Patriots AFC Championship victory, we see a dead-even game tilting toward San Diego until we get all the way down to red zone efficiency. The Patriots scored TDs on three of four trips while the Chargers were zero for three. But, again, how can you expect a QB to play at all let alone make red zone plays on a torn ACL?

Before making some player predictions, the stats say this game is trending in the Giants' direction. Yes, Tom Brady is a Hall of Famer playing at the top of his game. But we could have said the same thing about Brett Favre last week. I don't think the Giants will have enough offensive horsepower to overcome him. But the outcome should be in doubt come the fourth quarter. Patriots 30, Giants 24.

Buy

Plaxico Burress, WR, Giants: Gets the extra week to rest his season-long ankle sprain and is coming off the most dominant game by a wide receiver in Giants playoff history (11 catches, 151 yards)

Ahmad Bradshaw, RB, Giants: This Corvette makes teammate Brandon Jacobs look like the family station wagon.

Hold

Eli Manning, QB, Giants: He did not turn the ball over one time in three road playoff games. There's an element of greatness there that transcends traditional performance stats.

Randy Moss, WR, Patriots: Backup Giants CB Corey Webster has turned shut-down since stepping in for injured Sam Madison. But Moss has great height and speed and thus can't be stopped one-on-one.

Sell

Laurence Maroney, RB, Patriots: Other than the first half at Dallas, the Giants have been impossible to run on in January. Maroney had just 46 yards on 19 carries in the
Week 17 matchup.

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