Projo Fantasy Sports Blog

By Michael Salfino

Let’s look at NFL leaders heading into the final game of Week 16 and attempt to forecast whether a repeat can be expected in 2008.

Derek Anderson will try Sunday to become the fifth QB of 2007 to throw for at least 30 TD passes, more proof that 2007 was a passing year.

The QB cavalcade is led by the Patriots' Tom Brady, who has 48 TD passes and leads the NFL with a 8.3 yards per attempt (YPA) rating. That’s a far cry from the 9.2 YPA that Peyton Manning posted when he tossed 49 TDs in 2004. But Brady’s YPA is more on par with Dan Marino’s when he tossed 48 TDs in 1984.

The other top TD passers slot exactly as they do in the YPA rankings: Tony Romo (36 TDs, 8.18 YPA), Manning (31, 7.91 YPA) and Ben Roethlisberger (31, 7.81 YPA).

The exception is Anderson, who is 12th in YPA and has struggled a bit the last month. That’s exactly what Tony Romo did in 2006 after a similarly hot start. I said then that periods of struggle and adjustment should be expected for any QB with less than 20 starts. But will Anderson be given a chance to pick up in 2008 where he left off this fall, or will the Browns hand the reigns to the more heralded Brady Quinn?

The leaders in TD catches are New England’s Randy Moss (21), Dallas’ Terrell Owens (15), Cleveland’s Braylon Edwards (15), Cincy’s T.J. Houshmandzadeh (12) and Green Bay’s Greg Jennings (12).

Moss is only 13th in average gain per reception. Granted, he has lots of catches and a number of short TDs, which hurts his average. And he’s not exactly Houshmandzadeh or teammate Wes Welker, who are 77th and 75th in average gain, respectively. Note that the NFL leader in yards per catch is 36-year-old Joey Galloway, who has just six TDs.

Leaders in rushing TDs are San Diego’s LaDainian Tomlinson (14 entering Monday night), Minnesota’s Adrian Peterson (12), Indy’s Joseph Addai (12), Dallas’ Marion Barber (10) and Tampa Bay’s Earnest Graham (10). Those backs are ranked 15th, 1st, 28th, 8th and 29th in average gain.

Seasons rarely have less at stake in Week 17 than 2007 does. Half this weekend’s games will feature playoff teams in preseason mode as they look ahead to January. But the Patriots play out the season even when they’re not gunning for perfection. That quest continues on Saturday night in the Meadowlands when they vie for 16-0 versus a Giants team likely to give themselves a bye after clinching the No. 5 NFC seed in Buffalo on Sunday.

Next week we begin analyzing playoff games. So here’s a last, long look ahead to 2008.

Buy

Jay Cutler, QB, Broncos: He’s fifth in YPA entering Monday night’s game. Bet that he at least holds that ranking and that the TD strikes follow, as they have with other QBs noted above. WR Brandon Marshall is a Randy Moss-caliber athletic talent.

Brandon Jacobs, RB, Giants: He does run tall and hasn’t proven he can stay healthy. But he’s fifth in yards per carry. At 260 pounds, he should be the goal-line back in 2008.

Selvin Young, RB, Broncos: This explosive slasher is No. 2 behind Peterson in yards per rush. He’ll likely be blocked by Travis Henry, who will be on the downside at age 30 and a great injury risk even if he manages to keep his drug tests clean.

Hold

Matt Hasselbeck, QB, Seahawks: Don’t get carried away in projecting him next year, even given the Seahawks' decided passing bent. Hasselbeck is just 13th in yards per attempt and the Seahawks have major problems protecting the passer.

Drew Brees, QB, Saints: Similar to Hasselbeck in that he is an average 16th in YPA. There’s a view that Brees is even better in real life than he is in terms of fantasy production. He’s merely a good player, nothing more.

Sell

Eli Manning, QB, Giants: Forget that he’s 11th in TD passes and look at his 31st ranking in YPA. Run away.

Greg Jennings, WR, Packers: The TDs likely are a fluke because he’s not a go-to guy anywhere else on the field (47th in catches).

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