Projo Fantasy Sports Blog

By David Ferris

Below are complete fantasy football rankings based on this week's matchups for all the major positions (QB, RB, WR, TE, K, team defense). They are based on a combined yardage/scoring system (4 points for a passing touchdown, 6 points for a rushing/receiving touchdown, one point for every 25 passing yards, one point for every 10 rushing/receiving yards).
Last Updated: 12/29/07
* = check status

Quarterback
1. Kurt Warner, ARI vs. STL
NOTE: 207 pass attempts last five weeks.
2. Drew Brees, NO at CHI
3. Tom Brady, NE at NYG
4. Derek Anderson, CLE vs. SF
5. *Jay Cutler, DEN vs. MIN

>> Continue reading: Position-by-position player rankings, updated

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By David Ferris

In addition to the normal bumps and bruises, we'll also make some educated guesses as to who's playing hard and who's hardly playing for Week 17. Good luck negotiating the final weekend, which is more slippery than usual.

Steelers QB Ben Roethlisberger (ankle) did very little this week and probably won't play at Baltimore. If he does make an appearance, it will be a short one, with Charlie Batch then taking over.

Colts QB Jim Sorgi is expected to play at least a half against Tennessee. Unless you're totally stuck for an option, sit Peyton Manning this week.

Cowboys QB Tony Romo (thumb) is expected to start at Washington, but don't look for a long stint. Brad Johnson is the backup.

Broncos QB Jay Cutler has a sore knee, but he'll go nonetheless against Minnesota.

Redskins QB Todd Collins makes another start, as Jason Campbell (knee) won't play again in the regular season. If Collins rallies this club into the playoffs, Joe Gibbs has an interesting choice on his hands for the Wild Card round.

Texans QB Sage Rosenfels picks up another start as Matt Schaub deals with his shoulder injury.

Chiefs QB Brodie Croyle (hand) had a solid week and should start at New York.

The 49ers roll with the well-traveled Chris Weinke under center at Cleveland. Shaun Hill is out with a back injury.

Jets QB Kellen Clemens (ribs/shoulder) was limited in practice all week but nonetheless he's expected to start against the Chiefs on Sunday.

Ravens QB Troy Smith gets another start this week, against division rival Pittsburgh.

Dolphins QB Cleo Lemon will start against Cincinnati.

Packers QB Aaron Rodgers (hamstring) still isn't practicing, so if the Packers rest Brett Favre early, Craig Nall will come in.

The Bucs aren't expected to play QB Jeff Garcia much this week, if at all, against Carolina. Luke McCown is the next option.

Raiders QB JaMarcus Russell picks up his first career start against San Diego, as Oakland downshifts into experiment mode.

Panthers QB Matt Moore makes his third straight start, in part because Vinny Testaverde (ankle) isn't healthy.

The Jaguars are expected to rest both Fred Taylor and Maurice Jones-Drew against Houston, so say hello to RB Brandon Toefield, if you're desperate.

Eagles RB Brian Westbrook (knee) finished the week with two full sessions and is probable for Sunday's game with Buffalo. I see no reason to sit him.

Bengals RB Rudi Johnson (hamstring) is out for Miami, in addition to third-stringer DeDe Dorsey, which means more work for the underrated Kenny Watson.

Titans RB LenDale White (knee) looked good the last two days and should be heavily involved at Indy.

Colts RB Joseph Addai (back/shoulder) will likely start against the Titans, but don't expect him to play very long.

Saints RB Reggie Bush (knee) is out for this week and Aaron Stecker (toe) is very questionable, so Pierre Thomas will probably get the start at Chicago.

Bucs RB Earnest Graham (ankle) missed time this week and is expected to sit against the Panthers. Teammate Michael Pittman (ankle) is expected to play, though he was limited in practice.

Texans RB Ron Dayne (ankle) might get some time against Jacksonville, but Darius Walker is expected to start.

Steelers RB Willie Parker (broken leg) is done for the year, and it's not clear how much the club wants to expose Najeh Davenport at Baltimore.

Chiefs RB Larry Johnson (foot) finally went on IR this week, so Kolby Smith makes another start against the Jets.

49ers RB Frank Gore (ankle) missed time this week but nonetheless will go, and take a full workload, at Cleveland.

With Ravens RB Willis McGahee out, RB Musa Smith gets the ball against Pittsburgh.

Giants RB Brandon Jacobs is expected to start tonight but he probably won't play much in the second half, if at all. RB Ahmad Bradshaw (leg) is listed as questionable.

Raiders RB Justin Fargas (knee) went on injured reserve this week, so Dominic Rhodes gets another start against the Chargers.

There are whispers that the Cowboys aren't going to use RB Marion Barber much at Washington. Caveat emptor.

Lions RB Kevin Jones (knee) is done for the year and RB Tatum Bell is dealing with a sore foot, so it looks like T.J. Duckett's show again this week. The Detroit coaching staff has hinted that Duckett will receive a healthy amount of carries.

Cardinals WRs Anquan Boldin (toe) and Larry Fitzgerald (groin) are expected to start against the Rams despite limited practice weeks. I'd use either guy here.

Cowboys WR Terrell Owens (ankle) is out for Week 17 but hopes to be ready for the team's playoff opener in two weeks.

Giants WR Plaxico Burress (ankle) did more work than usual this week and could be active for a while against the Patriots, albeit the game means nothing to New York. From a fantasy perspective, I'd be looking to use someone else.

Saints WR Marques Colston (chest) isn't on the week injury report, so give him some run at Chicago.

Packers WR Greg Jennings (ankle) had a limited workout Friday but isn't a good fantasy bet for Week 17. The club has no incentive to use him here.

Seahawks WR Deion Branch (calf) didn't work the last two days, so forget him for Week 17. D.J. Hackett (ankle) is expected to get some snaps, but he's a risky play as well.

Panthers WR Steve Smith (shoulder) isn't on the injury report, so go ahead and use him at Tampa Bay.

Colts WR Marvin Harrison (knee) worked in full Thursday and Friday and is expected to start Sunday night against Tennessee. He could play a half, a quarter, one series, it's anyone's guess (the same goes for Reggie Wayne). The Colts probably won't have WR Anthony Gonzalez (ankle), who didn't practice all week.

Texans WR Andre Johnson (knee) was limited the last two days but is still expected to go against the Jags.

Bears WR Bernard Berrian (knee) had a full session Friday and will start against the spotty New Orleans secondary. Muhsin Muhammad (ankle) is listed as probable.

Bengals WR T.J. Houshmandzadeh (ankle) did well the last two days and is no longer on the injury report.

The Bucs won't dress Joey Galloway for their meaningless finale, and don't expect to see much of Ike Hilliard (knee), either. Jon Gruden clearly is going to treat this weekend as a final-week preseason game.

Vikings WR Bobby Wade (knee) did some work Friday and may go at Denver. WR Sidney Rice (high-ankle sprain) is considered a game-time decision.

Broncos WR Javon Walker (knee) is on the improve and should start against Minnesota. He'll be needed more than usual with Brandon Stokley (knee) out for another week.

Jets WR Brad Smith (back) was limited all week but should go against Kansas City.

Falcons WR Michael Jenkins (quad) isn't practicing and probably won't play in the finale. WR Joe Horn (foot) has been limited this week. Laurent Robinson benefits from these two injuries.

Cowboys WR Terry Glenn (knee) remains limited in practice and if he does play this week, it will likely be for just a possession or two.

Steelers WR Nate Washington (ankle) is questionable for Week 17.

Browns TE Kellen Winslow (knee) might need surgery after the year, but it isn't expected to keep him out this week. He's also been dealing with a shoulder problem most of the year.

Ravens TE Todd Heap (hamstring) won't play in Week 17.

Broncos TE Daniel Graham (ankle) is probably out for another week.

Jets TE Chris Baker (back) missed reps in practice this week but is expected to play against the Chiefs.

Patriots TE Ben Watson (ankle) didn't do a lot in practice and is a risky play for tonight's finale.

Chargers PK Nate Kaeding (bruised leg) should be able to handle placement kicks this week, but the team wants someone else for kickoffs. If you can still make a move, I'd opt for a safer, healthier kicker.

Titans DT Albert Haynesworth (ankle) worked the last two days and should go Sunday night at Indianapolis, as Tennessee fights for a playoff slot.

Panthers DE Julius Peppers (knee) is out for the year.

Ravens LB Ray Lewis (finger) is iffy for the finale with Pittsburgh.

Vikings CB Antoine Winfield (shoulder) might be able to play at Denver.

Saints CB Mike McKenzie (knee) is out for the year, a notable hit to an already-terrible pass defense.

Cowboys CB Terence Newman is out this week, a boost for the Washington passing game.

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By David Ferris

Below are complete fantasy football rankings based on this week's matchups for all the major positions (QB, RB, WR, TE, K, team defense). They are based on a combined yardage/scoring system (4 points for a passing touchdown, 6 points for a rushing/receiving touchdown, one point for every 25 passing yards, one point for every 10 rushing/receiving yards).
Updated every Saturday in light of injury and other news from around the NFL.
* = check status

Quarterback
1. Kurt Warner, ARI vs. STL
NOTE: 207 pass attempts last five weeks.
2. Derek Anderson, CLE vs. SF
3. Drew Brees, NO at CHI
4. Carson Palmer, CIN at MIA
5. Donovan McNabb, PHI vs. BUF

>> Continue reading: Position-by-position player rankings

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By Michael Salfino

There's only one week left to forecast. We'll focus exclusively here on Week 17 before filing our final Stock Watch next week on who we expect will be the sleepers and the busts of 2008. Happy Holidays!

Upgrade

Adrian Peterson, RB, Bears: He had 30 carries last week and bad weather is a likely at this time of year in Chicago. The Saints come to town on life support and with a rotten pass defense. Their run defense has been stout; but intensity is a key there and how much will the Saints have given their disappointing Week 16? The Bears are past mourning 2007 and likely more eager to close out the year on an up note before the home crowd.

Clinton Portis, RB, Redskins: The Cowboys have nothing to play after locking up the NFC's No. 1 seed. The Redskins are a home win away from an emotionally satisfying turnaround and playoff birth on the heals of the tragic death of Sean Taylor. Portis was very close to Taylor and should be expected to continue carrying Washington as he's done the past two weeks.

Steven Jackson, RB, Rams: The returns have been mixed for Jackson owners during his injury-plagued 2007. St. Louis travels to Arizona to face a Cardinals defense that's motivated to finish .500. But Jackson is a supreme talent who has played very well the past two weeks. Perhaps this week the Rams won't forget about him like they did in the second half of last week's loss to Pittsburgh.

Anquan Boldin, WR, Cardinals: His season was supposed to be done after dislocating his toe. But Boldin has provided more evidence that he's not merely a supreme talent but a tough and resourceful one, too. Larry Fitzgerald is actually more hobbled, so Kurt Warner is leaning more on Boldin in the passing game. The results last week were spectacular and could be again in what should be a high-scoring affair at home versus the Rams.

Roddy White, WR, Falcons: Tough call here. White was essentially shutout in Week 15 and then exploded last week. But Bobby Petrino is gone and perhaps so is the pall he seemed to cast over the entire team. The players appeared very motivated last week before falling just short against the Cardinals. Given the dearth of options with so many teams viewing Week 17 as an exhibition (see below), I'd have him active in all deep formats.

Chris Cooley, TE, Redskins: You never want to be heavily invested in the Redskins' passing game, but this is a great week for the reasons noted above. The Cowboys are looking ahead to January and won't risk any injuries. Cooley has had only three catches the last two weeks. But the conditions were terrible in New York and Washington coasted in Week 16. Expect a TD and a half-dozen grabs here as the 'Skins roll.

Carson Palmer, QB, Bengals: There aren't better matchups than the Dolphins in the friendly conditions at Miami. Palmer and his receivers have been a tremendous disappointment of late. Bet they end on a high note.

No Change

Patriots Passing Game: The quest for perfection continues. Plus Tom Brady needs two TD passes to set the NFL record for most scoring strikes ever. That's the floor in Week 17 against the Giants, who will be treating the game as a bye. If the conditions are decent (and wind has rarely been a factor in Giants Stadium in recent years), pencil Brady in for 300 yards and at least three TDs (one for good measure).

Browns offense: The Browns have nothing to play for but can make the playoffs if the Titans lose at the Colts. That's not likely given that the Colts have said their starters will rest at least three quarters. But Cleveland must sense their doom and is good bet to lay it all out in what's very likely to be their last game of a successful season. The Niners will play hard, too, and have a decent defense but no offense to threaten the Browns and force a high percentage of passing plays, even if the weather in Cleveland cooperates.

Vince Young, QB, Titans: His decision making and mechanics are terrible. But he's a winner, we're told. This year, though, he's merely along for the Tennessee ride.

Downgrade

Playoff teams with nothing to play for: The list includes the Colts (who at least, surprisingly, went hard in Week 16), Jaguars, Giants, Cowboys, Packers, Seahawks and Buccaneers. Additionally, the Steelers and Chargers are only playing for the No. 3 seed and avoiding a game against the Jaguars and a trip to New England in the divisional round. Teams rarely play hard for seeding in Week 17; but at least the regulars receive regular playing time.

All Ravens: Every year, there's one losing team that's totally packed it in. This year, it's Baltimore.

Saints offense: The injuries have taken their toll and the conditions in the Windy City will likely prove challenging to the passing game. Last week was their Waterloo. How enthused can they be about a holiday trip to the frosty Midwest during a holiday week?

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By Michael Salfino

Let’s look at NFL leaders heading into the final game of Week 16 and attempt to forecast whether a repeat can be expected in 2008.

Derek Anderson will try Sunday to become the fifth QB of 2007 to throw for at least 30 TD passes, more proof that 2007 was a passing year.

The QB cavalcade is led by the Patriots' Tom Brady, who has 48 TD passes and leads the NFL with a 8.3 yards per attempt (YPA) rating. That’s a far cry from the 9.2 YPA that Peyton Manning posted when he tossed 49 TDs in 2004. But Brady’s YPA is more on par with Dan Marino’s when he tossed 48 TDs in 1984.

The other top TD passers slot exactly as they do in the YPA rankings: Tony Romo (36 TDs, 8.18 YPA), Manning (31, 7.91 YPA) and Ben Roethlisberger (31, 7.81 YPA).

The exception is Anderson, who is 12th in YPA and has struggled a bit the last month. That’s exactly what Tony Romo did in 2006 after a similarly hot start. I said then that periods of struggle and adjustment should be expected for any QB with less than 20 starts. But will Anderson be given a chance to pick up in 2008 where he left off this fall, or will the Browns hand the reigns to the more heralded Brady Quinn?

The leaders in TD catches are New England’s Randy Moss (21), Dallas’ Terrell Owens (15), Cleveland’s Braylon Edwards (15), Cincy’s T.J. Houshmandzadeh (12) and Green Bay’s Greg Jennings (12).

Moss is only 13th in average gain per reception. Granted, he has lots of catches and a number of short TDs, which hurts his average. And he’s not exactly Houshmandzadeh or teammate Wes Welker, who are 77th and 75th in average gain, respectively. Note that the NFL leader in yards per catch is 36-year-old Joey Galloway, who has just six TDs.

Leaders in rushing TDs are San Diego’s LaDainian Tomlinson (14 entering Monday night), Minnesota’s Adrian Peterson (12), Indy’s Joseph Addai (12), Dallas’ Marion Barber (10) and Tampa Bay’s Earnest Graham (10). Those backs are ranked 15th, 1st, 28th, 8th and 29th in average gain.

Seasons rarely have less at stake in Week 17 than 2007 does. Half this weekend’s games will feature playoff teams in preseason mode as they look ahead to January. But the Patriots play out the season even when they’re not gunning for perfection. That quest continues on Saturday night in the Meadowlands when they vie for 16-0 versus a Giants team likely to give themselves a bye after clinching the No. 5 NFC seed in Buffalo on Sunday.

Next week we begin analyzing playoff games. So here’s a last, long look ahead to 2008.

Buy

Jay Cutler, QB, Broncos: He’s fifth in YPA entering Monday night’s game. Bet that he at least holds that ranking and that the TD strikes follow, as they have with other QBs noted above. WR Brandon Marshall is a Randy Moss-caliber athletic talent.

Brandon Jacobs, RB, Giants: He does run tall and hasn’t proven he can stay healthy. But he’s fifth in yards per carry. At 260 pounds, he should be the goal-line back in 2008.

Selvin Young, RB, Broncos: This explosive slasher is No. 2 behind Peterson in yards per rush. He’ll likely be blocked by Travis Henry, who will be on the downside at age 30 and a great injury risk even if he manages to keep his drug tests clean.

Hold

Matt Hasselbeck, QB, Seahawks: Don’t get carried away in projecting him next year, even given the Seahawks' decided passing bent. Hasselbeck is just 13th in yards per attempt and the Seahawks have major problems protecting the passer.

Drew Brees, QB, Saints: Similar to Hasselbeck in that he is an average 16th in YPA. There’s a view that Brees is even better in real life than he is in terms of fantasy production. He’s merely a good player, nothing more.

Sell

Eli Manning, QB, Giants: Forget that he’s 11th in TD passes and look at his 31st ranking in YPA. Run away.

Greg Jennings, WR, Packers: The TDs likely are a fluke because he’s not a go-to guy anywhere else on the field (47th in catches).

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By David Ferris

Somehow the Giants were able to win at Buffalo despite four turnovers from Eli Manning, but that's not going to hold up in the playoffs. He's now handed the ball to the opposition 26 times this year, a very inflated number for a playoff quarterback. And it's not like a bunch of long gains are coming to offset the mistakes – Manning is getting a very pedestrian 6.2 yards per attempt this season, same as last year. Colleague Michael Salfino has said it for a while and I'll concur – it's time to accept that Manning is what he is, an ordinary quarterback at best and nothing even remotely close to a savior.

When appraising Frank Gore's 2007 season, be sure to blame nagging injuries and a total collapse of the offensive line above all else. He's still got the power to run inside and the gear to make big plays outside, and he's well positioned to be one of the best bargains at the table next year.

I've got nothing against Fred Taylor and it's nice that he's finally going to make it to the Pro Bowl after all, but let's accept what he's become at this point in his career – a solid part of a running-back platoon, not an every-down player. He was an impact receiver in the early portion of his career, but the Jaguars soured on his hands a few years back and he's only caught 45 passes over the last three years (just nine this year).

Peyton Manning continually gets credit for having the entire playbook in his head, but he's got nothing on Matt Hasselbeck, who's quietly having one of his best seasons. Hasselbeck still makes a loose throw now and again, but his ability to check out of bad plays at the line of scrimmage is vastly underrated. Throw in a disruptive defense and Seattle looms as the most dangerous of the first-week NFC playoff teams.

Quick Hits:

The Washington receivers made some plays in Minnesota Sunday night, but you still see these guys giving up on routes every week . . . I'll just come out and admit it – I didn't think T.J. Duckett had a 53-yard run in him ... I guess the double-standard goes like this – people like Tom Brady are allowed to be funny, or even sarcastic, in a press conference, but when Terrell Owens tries to tell a joke, a thousand journalists smell blood and go for the throat. It's not right ... Had the Bengals properly evaluated the Kenny Watson/Rudi Johnson situation back in September, they'd probably have an extra win or two today ... Calvin Johnson will probably have a nice career, but I'd still bet on Dwayne Bowe first in a keeper league ... Coaches should be electronically shocked when they attempt a 2-point conversion before the fourth period ... For a guy who missed a solid two months of the season, Andre Johnson had little trouble getting to eight touchdowns. I'll pay what it costs to own him at least once or twice next summer ... Welcome to the 2007 season, Laurence Maroney.

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