Final position-by-position player rankings
11:27 AM Sat, Sep 29, 2007 | Permalink |
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By David Ferris
Following are complete fantasy football rankings based on this week's matchups for all the major positions (QB, RB, WR, TE, K, team defense). They are based on a combined yardage/scoring system (4 points for a passing touchdown, 6 points for a rushing/receiving touchdown, one point for every 25 passing yards, one point for every 10 rushing/receiving yards).
Updated Saturday, 9/29/07
* = check status
Quarterback
1. Tom Brady, NE at CIN
2. Carson Palmer, CIN vs. NE
3. Peyton Manning, IND vs. DEN
NOTE: He's owned Denver secondary for years.
4. Donovan McNabb, PHI at NYG
5. Jon Kitna, DET vs. CHI
By David Ferris
Quarterbacks
Panthers QB Jake Delhomme (elbow) missed the last three days of practice and looks very unlikely to play against Tampa Bay. David Carr will start in his place, much to the chagrin of Steve Smith owners.
Vikings QB Kelly Holcomb is expected to start in place of Tarvaris Jackson (groin), though the club continues to play it coy on this front.
Packers QB Brett Favre (finger) did fine during the latter part of the week and is a lock to start at Minnesota.
Rams QB Marc Bulger (ribs) had a full practice Friday and will start at Dallas.
Jets QB Chad Pennington (ankle) was limited in practice all week but is fully expected to start at Buffalo.
Raiders QB Daunte Culpepper will start at Miami in place of Josh McCown (broken toe).
Bills QB J.P. Losman (knee) is down for a couple of weeks, which puts rookie QB Trent Edwards into the hot seat.
Broncos QB Jay Cutler (ankle) had three full practices and will start at Indianapolis.
Running Backs
Bengals RB Rudi Johnson (hamstring) is listed as out for Monday's showdown with the Patriots, which means Kenny Watson will start.
Chiefs RB Larry Johnson (hamstring) did full work Friday and looks fine to take his normal workload Sunday at San Diego.
Rams RB Steven Jackson (groin) won't play this week and could miss a few weeks. Rookie RB Brian Leonard starts in his place.
Eagles RB Brian Westbrook (abdominal) didn't practice Friday and remains questionable for Sunday night's game against the Giants. He's being called a game-time decision. Westbrook in the past has often been able to play off limited weeks of practice, so there's probably a decent chance he gives it a go, but he's far from a sure thing.
Patriots RB Laurence Maroney has a sore groin and was limited in Friday's workout. He's considered questionable for Monday's game at Cincinnati, and given how the Pats handle their injury disclosures, it's difficult to say what exactly that means. Either way, look for RB Sammy Morris to probably get double-digit touches in the game, and perhaps a look at the goal line.
Jets RB Thomas Jones (calf) worked in full this week and is ready to roll against a weak Buffalo rushing defense. Use him.
Seahawks RB Shaun Alexander will play despite a broken bone in his wrist.
Texans RB Ahman Green (knee) missed Friday's practice and although he's listed as questionable, he's too risky for most fantasy owners to look at this week. Ron Dayne and Samkon Gado, by default, figure to carry the load at Atlanta.
The Packers backfield should probably be avoided this week. RB Brandon Jackson (shin) is very questionable and didn't practice the last two days. RB Vernand Morency (knee) has returned to practice this week and should play on Sunday, but it remains to be seen how much work he's ready for. Unproven RBs DeShawn Wynn and Ryan Grant will probably split most of the work, but against the elite Minnesota front seven, don't look for them to go anywhere.
Vikings RB Chester Taylor (hip) was back at practice Friday and should get a fair amount of work against the Packers, not that I'd start him in any fantasy format this week. Adrian Peterson loses a few touches when Taylor comes back – the Vikings still consider Taylor the starter when both are healthy – but he's still usable as your second back or flex option.
Giants RB Brandon Jacobs (knee) made excellent progress this week and might go against Philadelphia, but he's too risky to start in most formats.
Lions RB Kevin Jones (foot) is free of the injury report this week and should be ready for more touches against Chicago.
Wide Receivers
Giants WR Plaxico Burress (ankle) didn't practice Friday and remains questionable, though he's still hoping to go against the Eagles. The Sunday night slot for this game does create a dilemma for fantasy owners, and ultimately your depth at the position makes the call on how you handle Burress. I'm prepared to use him where I normally would.
Steelers WR Hines Ward (knee) has been ruled out for Sunday. Look for Nate Washington to pick up his snaps.
Cardinals WR Anquan Boldin (hip) didn't practice Friday and is listed as doubtful. Bryant Johnson, a solid player but not in Boldin's class, will start against Pittsburgh.
Bengals WR T.J. Houshmandzadeh (knee) missed some time this week but he's been managing this injury all season and should be ready to go Monday.
Jets WR Jerricho Cotchery (shoulder) missed time in each of the last three days, and for the second week in a row he's listed as questionable. He also played with this designation last week, and I'm expecting him to go at Buffalo, but confirm that before kickoff.
Packers WR Greg Jennings (hamstring) rested most of the last two days but should play at Minnesota. WR Donald Driver (toe) is also good to use, off a full workout Friday.
Broncos WR Javon Walker (knee) probably won't be 100 percent but is expected to go against the Colts.
Ravens WR Mark Clayton (calf) practiced Friday and looks ready for Sunday's game with Cleveland. Demetrius Williams (heel) is in the same boat, listed as questionable but coming off a good day Friday.
Lions WR Calvin Johnson (back) did some work Friday but remains questionable for Sunday's game with Chicago. It's probably not the best week to risk it on him, even with the Bears defense missing several key players.
Patriots WR Donte Stallworth (knee) was limited Friday, and off a slow start to the season probably shouldn't be used in Week 4.
Chargers WR Vincent Jackson (back) had a good day Friday and looks fine for Sunday's game against Kansas City. He's also up against a spotty secondary, so don't be afraid of Jackson as your third receiver.
The Texans are a mess at receiver, missing Andre Johnson (knee) and Jacoby Jones (shoulder) this week. Return ace Jerome Mathis (leg) is also doubtful. Look for WR Andre Davis and TE Owen Daniels to get plenty of work against the Falcons.
Chiefs WR Eddie Kennison (knee) is out for another week.
Vikings WR Troy Williamson (hamstring) will play this week, not that he's proven a thing as a fantasy option.
Other Positions
Ravens TE Todd Heap (calf) had a productive day Friday and should be started for anyone's fantasy team.
Browns TE Kellen Winslow is playing through a partially separated shoulder, but nonetheless he expects to go against the Ravens.
Colts TE Dallas Clark (quad) was limited Friday but still has a good shot to play Sunday against Denver.
49ers TE Vernon Davis (knee) will not play this week.
Packers TE Bubba Franks (knee) had a good workout Friday and will go against Minnesota.
Eagles TE L.J. Smith (groin) is out indefinitely.
Dolphins TE David Martin (virus) is expected to play Sunday. He's probable.
Eagles PK David Akers (quad) should be fine for Sunday's game with the Giants.
The Bears defense hobbles into Detroit for Week 4. CB Nathan Vasher (groin) is doubtful and CB Charles Tillman (ankle) is questionable, something the Lions passing game will look to exploit. DT Tommie Harris (knee) might be able to play after getting in some work Friday. LB Lance Briggs (hamstring) is questionable and didn't practice Friday. Safety Adam Archuleta will play despite a broken hand.
Dolphins LB Zach Thomas (concussion) is considered a game-time decision for Week 4.
Cowboys CB Terence Newman (foot) will probably be available in a limited role against St. Louis, but it's doubtful he'll start.
Packers CB Al Harris (back) isn't 100 percent but will play against Minnesota.
Eagles CB Lito Sheppard (knee) isn't expected to play. Safety Brian Dawkins (neck) is a game-time decision.
September 27
By Michael Salfino
The byes start this week, and owners of Larry Johnson, Lee Evans and a host of others feel like their fantasy season is already bye-bye. Should you hang in there? Sell your dregs for pennies on the dollar? Throw some chum into the free-agent waters in hopes of landing a trophy?
Upgrade
Brian Leonard, RB, Rams: He's the tailback now with Steven Jackson out. The Rams are likely to be a passing team. Marc Bulger (ribs) is being held together with duct tape and probably needs a week or two to heal if his revamped line can possibly keep him clean. (Bulger says his ribs are fine.) You have to move aggressively on all free-agent running backs with a pulse and hope for the best. When it doesn't work out, as happened last week with DeShawn Wynn, shrug it off because the cost was very low.
Bernard Berrian, WR, Bears: He's on pace for 85 catches for 1,170 yards. That's with Rex Grossman, who was emotionally shot. Now, Brian Griese, who is at least a professional, comes in. Griese will feed Berrian the ball more consistently because he'll keep more drives alive than did Grossman. The touchdowns are coming. Act fast, because the Lions secondary (this week's opponent) has been a frightfully easy mark.
LaMont Jordan, RB, Raiders: We liked him in the preseason. But I'd be a seller now if I drafted him as my No. 3 RB. The Raiders still stink. There's a revolving door at QB and eventually JaMarcus Russell is going to step through it and it will get ugly. And there's some chance that highly touted Michael Bush (PUP, leg) is healthy enough by November to be activated and work his way into a RB rotation. Plus, Jordan's back acted up last week and that sidelined him for multiple games in 2006.
Brett Favre, QB, Packers: I feel like I owe him an apology. But the only thing I'm certain I've gotten wrong about him is the degree to which he'll be passing. While the Packers defense is good, this is likely an Eagles situation where there's no back to carry the load no matter what the score. So Favre is going to get lots of attempts. I still think the past two years (47 interceptions, 38 TDs, 6.3 yards per attempt) are a better indicator of Favre's current ability than the last two weeks (1 pick, 6 TDs, 7.9 YPA). The trip this week into Minnesota will be more telling.
No Change
Reggie Brown, WR, Eagles: I said he was too expensive in the preseason, preferring the cheaper Kevin Curtis, who, of course, exploded last week like a Fantasy H-Bomb. But Brown owners are too down right now. He'll have his good days. Brian Westbrook can't stay healthy, so you're going to get 60 percent passing plays at least from McNabb. With that kind of ratio and no one threatening his starting job, a 70-1,100-7 TD season for Brown remains likely.
Larry Fitzgerald, WR, Cardinals: I downgraded him once for the conservative Cardinals playcalling (still a 59/41 run/pass split in the first quarter of games), as well as for not being on the field near the goal line (Anquan Boldin has been the lone receiver there). But his talent is undeniable and the move to Kurt Warner for at least the no-huddle stuff is going to help him. Let's face it: Matt Leinart looks lost in the new system. He's cheap right now. So I'd be trying to buy for, say, Kevin Curtis or some other flavor of the week. (I do like Curtis for five or six more TDs, making him a very solid WR3 in most leagues.)
Plaxico Burress, WR, Giants: His sprained ankle has lingered for eight weeks and he flew to North Carolina to get a second opinion. Don't panic. But he's not practicing and was held without a catch last week until the second half. If not for that, he'd get a second upgrade in this young season to the status of Top 5 fantasy receiver. But keep him in the top 10 for now, as there seems a reasonable chance that he could be slowed all year and/or lose a game around the bye in order to get past the pain. Of course, there's also a some chance that a doctor will find something that will cause him to miss multiple weeks.
Downgrade
Cadillac Williams, RB, Bucs: Earnest Graham ran roughshod over the Rams in the fourth quarter last week (75 yards, two TDs). Jon Gruden announced that Graham will continue to get carries even when Williams' ribs are fully healed. He seems like a more ideal goal-line back at 5-9, 220; so Williams' fantasy value takes a hit even if that's the limit of Graham's involvement. Williams also fumbled last week, further annoying Gruden.
Adrian Peterson, RB, Vikings: I feel like I'm downgrading Clark Kent here. But it has to be done when the head coach says, "Chester (Taylor) is the starter." The Vikes say they'll resume their committee plan as soon as Taylor's injured hip permits, likely this week. The starter doesn't necessarily play more or even an equal amount. But we have to assume for now that Taylor will cut heavily into Peterson's snaps. And there's not a lot of scoring to go around in Minnesota.
Brandon Jacobs, RB, Giants: I'd look for someone who still buys Jacobs as a feature back when he returns. Derrick Ward has done a fair Tiki Barber impersonation for the Giants, both as a runner and receiver. Reuben Droughns proved a capable goal-line guy versus Washington. There's less and less for Jacobs to do when he eventually gets over his sprained knee (out again this week).
Vince Young, QB, Titans: He's not even looking to run. Running is fun, Vince! There's so much noise now about how great a real player Young is that it's masking the hit his fantasy value has taken. Young will never throw enough to make up for those lost rushing plays and, especially, rushing TDs. Offensive coordinator Norm Chow continues to stick Young behind center when the numbers all around for Tennessee remain much better when he's in the gun.
Laurence Maroney, RB, Patriots: I figured Tom Brady would go all Peyton Manning with those shiny new receivers. But I incorrectly assumed that Maroney would be like Joseph Addai and get enough crumbs near the goal-line to be a top fantasy threat. Instead, he's on the field for less than 50 percent of snaps (even in the early going) and has lost goal-line carries to Sammy Morris, of all people. So, instead of being a featured player in New England's blockbuster offense, he's relegated to a supporting role with no breakthrough in sight. And there's no incentive for the Patriots to change a thing.
September 26
By David Ferris
Following are complete fantasy football rankings based on this week's matchups for all the major positions (QB, RB, WR, TE, K, team defense). They are based on a combined yardage/scoring system (4 points for a passing touchdown, 6 points for a rushing/receiving touchdown, one point for every 25 passing yards, one point for every 10 rushing/receiving yards).
Updated every Saturday in light of injury and other news from around the NFL.
* = check status
Quarterback
1. Tom Brady, NE at CIN
2. Carson Palmer, CIN vs. NE
3. Peyton Manning, IND vs. DEN
NOTE: He's owned Denver secondary for years.
4. Tony Romo, DAL vs. STL
5. Donovan McNabb, PHI at NYG
6. Jon Kitna, DET vs. CHI
7. Matt Hasselbeck, SEA at SF
8. Eli Manning, NYG vs. PHI
9. Brett Favre, GB at MIN
10. *Marc Bulger, STL at DAL
11. Brian Griese, CHI at DET
NOTE: He can't play any worse than Grossman.
12. Ben Roethlisberger, PIT at ARI
13. Jay Cutler, DEN at IND
14. Jeff Garcia, TB at CAR
15. Philip Rivers, SD vs. KC
16. Trent Green, MIA vs. OAK
17. Alex Smith, SF vs. SEA
18. Matt Schaub, HOU at ATL
NOTE: Hey, where'd all my help go?
19. Joey Harrington, ATL vs. HOU
20. *Matt Leinart, ARI vs. PIT
21. *Steve McNair, BAL vs. CLE
DOWNGRADE: On short leash; Boller probably wins eventually.
22. Derek Anderson, CLE vs. BAL
23. *McCown/Culpepper, OAK at MIA
24. *Chad Pennington, NYJ at BUF
25. *Delhomme/Carr, CAR vs. TB
26. Trent Edwards, BUF vs. NYJ
27. Damon Huard, KC at SD
28. *Jackson/Holcomb, MIN vs. GB
Running Back
1. LaDainian Tomlinson, SD vs. KC
NOTE: Not a guy you panic over.
2. Joseph Addai, IND vs. DEN
3. Willie Parker, PIT at ARI
4. *Brian Westbrook, PHI at NYG
September 25
By Michael Salfino
The Arizona Cardinals are opting for something rarely tried in NFL history: a QB committee.
Back in the early 1950s, Hall of Famers Norm Van Brocklin and Bob Waterfield shared a job for the Rams. Legendary coach Tom Landry alternated Roger Staubach and Craig Morton every other play for one game that the Cowboys lost despite gaining 500 yards. End of strategy. Eagles coach Buddy Ryan removed Ron Jaworski on all third and longs more recently in favor of the stronger-armed and fleet Randall Cunningham.
Last year, Titans coach Jeff Fisher rotated in Vince Young sporadically the first month. But Young clearly was being groomed to start.
The Cardinals Matt Leinart now is the younger QB being spotted for a veteran (Kurt Warner). Coach Ken Whisenhunt says his plan last week was to have Warner run the no-huddle package. Down 23-6 at Baltimore, the entire fourth quarter became Warner's and he finished with 20 attempts and over 250 yards passing (200 more than Leinart compiled in the same number of throws). Warner dramatically rallied the Cards to a tie before Baltimore prevailed on a last-second field goal.
Whisenhunt says Leinart is still the starter but that Warner will continue to run the no-huddle, normally the top line of any QB's resume.
One other statistical note this week. It's been widely speculated by NFL announcers that the decline in passing statistics since 2004 is related to increased use of blitzes and blitz effectiveness. Relatedly, John Madden speculated Sunday that Tom Brady is more successful this year because teams no longer blitz him due to the presence of Randy Moss.
Do the numbers back up these claims? Looking at the sample of starting QBs who played extensively in 2004 and 2006, we see that teams actually blitzed less last year: 28 percent of passing attempts versus 31 percent in 2004. They did blitz more effectively last year, 85.7 average QB rating on blitzes for our sample of passers versus 95.1 in 2004.
Brady is being blitzed less thus far: 26 percent of attempts versus 33 percent last year and 37 percent in 2004. His QB rating on blitzes this year is an almost perfect 147.7 versus 89.2 last year and 79.4 in 2004.
Curiously, according to Stats Inc., these same QBs are being blitzed just 18 percent of attempts in 2007. And they're being blitzed less effectively (average QB rating of 97.8). Note that these QBs tend to be good because you have to be to keep a job since 2004. Unless, of course, you're Joey Harrington.
Now, let's look at the numbers and predict player performance.
Buy
Marc Bulger, QB, Rams: Rookie Brian Leonard is not getting anywhere near the workload of Steven Jackson (torn groin). Bulger remains a very good QB with Hall of Fame-caliber receivers on a crappy team with a bad defense.
Kevin Curtis, WR, Eagles: Unbelievably, he still seems cheap despite the 11-221-3 TD outburst. He would have scored the first two weeks, too, with some average accuracy from Donovan McNabb.
Hold
LaDainian Tomlinson, RB, Chargers: The yards only seem impossibly hard to come by. In 2005, he averaged 3.8 or less per carry in four of his first seven games. Hang in there.
Lee Evans, WR, Bills: With 5 catches for 29 yards on the year, no one is buying. His new QB is Stanford rookie Trent Edwards, who at least is smart and strong-armed. If he shows nothing this week against the lowly Jets D, feel free to jump off a bridge.
Larry Johnson, RB, Chiefs: I'm calling a bottom on the LJ market despite the Chargers and Jaguars lining up the next two weeks. He excelled last year (19 TDs) against good defenses with the same coaches and very similar offense personnel.
Sell
Shaun Alexander, RB, Seahawks: Every injury with Alexander now turns out worse than first reported. He'll play with a heavy cast on his broken wrist. But he's nearing the end, having averaged under 4.0 per carry in 10 of his last 13 games.
Reggie Bush, RB, Saints: Deuce McAllister (knee) is likely done for the year. But Aaron Stecker will see action considering Bush's sub-3.0 rushing average between the tackles. The Saints are struggling and there's no guarantee Bush will claim short TDs.
September 24
Fantasy Scouting Notebook: Keep your eye on those Lions11:31 AM Mon, Sep 24, 2007 | Permalink | Email
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By David Ferris
Fantasy owners always want to follow the points whenever possible, and with that in mind, I present to you the official carnival of the 2007 NFL season: the Detroit Lions. Consider all the fantasy-friendly components here: the offense hasn't really been stopped yet; the defense can't detain anyone; offensive coordinator Mike Martz doesn't bother running the ball, which winds up extending the game. When you're setting your lineup in challenge contests and stock-market leagues, it's important to have at least some shares in the Detroit match, on both sides. Ronald Curry and Kevin Curtis are two examples of good players who looked other-worldly when they found Detroit on their schedule.
Denver's Brandon Marshall is the next star receiver in this league, a big, physical, high-motor player who makes tons of yards after the catch. His background as a track star doesn't hurt, either. The Broncos hit a home run with their 2006 fourth-round pick, and the comparisons to Terrell Owens (Marshall's teammates call him "Baby TO") are legitimate. Hold onto this guy with two hands if you're in a keeper league.
The Giants backfield looked pretty solid in the win at Washington; Derrick Ward consistently moved the ball between the 20s and Reuben Droughns punched in a couple of short scores. Brandon Jacobs takes a fantasy hit from all this; when he gets back on the field, it's possible he'll be in some sort of a time share.
Matt Schaub and Gary Kubiak are really going to be tested over the next few weeks, as the Texans have been devastated by injuries at the offensive skill positions. Receiver Andre Johnson (knee) is the biggest loss, of course, but consider the other names now residing in sick bay: RB Ahman Green (sprained knee), RB Ron Dayne (chest injury) WR Jacoby Jones (dislocated shoulder), WR Andre Davis (dislocated finger). If you have good hands and run decent routes, drop by Reliant Stadium this week.
I shrugged when Brett Favre had his way with the Giants secondary last week, but his big afternoon against the Chargers defense (369 yards, three touchdowns, no turnovers) makes him upgrade-worthy. Favre is getting plenty of opportunity to chuck the ball downfield (the Packers running game has been a mess through three weeks), and Green Bay has five quality targets to work with now that Greg Jennings is healthy again.
When you hear the common media ramble on about how the Saints need to get back to establishing Deuce McAllister early in games, toss the report in the garbage. McAllister had seven touches on the first 15 snaps last week, and two of them in particular (a lost fumble and a stuff on third-and-short) had a significant role in New Orleans falling behind by multiple scores. The Saints haven't been able to maintain a consistent running game through two weeks, but it's not because the effort isn't being made.
Quick Hits
Joey Harrington may not be the long-term solution to the Atlanta quarterbacking situation, but say this for him – he's getting more out of the Falcons wideouts than Michael Vick ever did . . . While Jason Campbell does throw one of the prettiest deep balls in the league, this offense (and specifically, the passing game) leaves a lot of yards on the field every week . . . Ben Roethlisberger has already touchdown flips to three different tight ends. Who's next, Bennie Cunningham? . . . For all the money the Redskins spent on the coaching staff, you'd think they could find someone who knows how to manage the clock. Washington totally botched that final minute against the Giants . . . DeAngelo Hall had a mediocre track record against Steve Smith before Sunday's shutdown effort. Look for Smith to exact some payback when they meet up again in Week 10 . . . LaMont Jordan owners shouldn't be sweating the Dominic Rhodes return at all, though the Oakland schedule gets significantly harder starting in Week 6 . . . Alex Smith's progress in 2006 was overrated, and he's regressed this season. You can't rely on any part of this passing offense right now . . . Shaun Alexander might be a good sell-high candidate; his solid start is a function of the offense as a whole, not directly attributable to anything special he is doing. Tougher matchups are ahead, and he's no longer a back who can get extra yardage on his own . . . Lee Evans wasn't even the top-producing Evans in the blowout loss at Foxboro. New England's Heath Evans picked up 12 rushing yards, compared to just seven receiving yards for struggling No. 83. And now Evans has to deal with a new quarterback situation; J.P. Losman (knee) will probably be out a few weeks.
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