Projo Fantasy Sports Blog

By David Ferris

Following are complete fantasy football rankings based on this week's matchups for all the major positions (QB, RB, WR, TE, K, team defense). They are based on a combined yardage/scoring system (4 points for a passing touchdown, 6 points for a rushing/receiving touchdown, one point for every 25 passing yards, one point for every 10 rushing/receiving yards).

Last Updated: 9/15/07

* = check status

>> Continue reading: Updated Week 2 Matchup Meter

By David Ferris

Quarterbacks

As we go to press Saturday morning, Eli Manning (shoulder) has yet to be ruled out for Sunday's game with Green Bay. Nonetheless Jared Lorenzen took most of the snaps in practice, and seems more likely to be the starter, which is a shame given how well Manning looked all summer and in the opener at Dallas.

Jets QB Chad Pennington (ankle) was very limited during the week and all context clues point to QB Kellen Clemens making his first career start at Baltimore.

Raiders QB Josh McCown (toe/finger) is listed as doubtful, which puts QB Daunte Culpepper on the field at Denver. The Raiders also signed QB JaMarcus Russell a few days ago, though he's weeks (if not months) away from being a factor.

Ravens QB Steve McNair (groin) did a little bit of throwing Friday and hasn't been ruled out for Sunday yet, though Kyle Boller took all the first team reps and probably will get the start against the Jets.

Running Backs

Although the Seahawks concede that RB Shaun Alexander has a sprained wrist, he didn't miss any practice time this week and isn't on the injury report. Alexander will be needed for a full load, with RB Maurice Morris (hip, doubtful) unlikely to go.

Buccaneers RB Carnell Williams (ribs) was limited in Friday's workout and will be a game-time decision for Sunday's game with New Orleans. Even if Williams can play, look for the Bucs to give plenty of work to Michael Pittman.

Giants RB Brandon Jacobs is expected to miss 3-5 weeks with his sprained MCL, which sets up Derrick Ward to start this week against Green Bay.

Dolphins RB Jesse Chatman (knee) had a full workout Friday and should be able to handle his normal No. 2 role on Sunday.

Jets RB Thomas Jones (calf) was limited in practice all week and is listed as questionable, and although I expect him to go at Baltimore, it's a terrible matchup for him.

Vikings RB Chester Taylor (hip) missed practice time all week and will probably be a game-time decision at Detroit. Either way, look for Minnesota to give a healthy share of work to RB Adrian Peterson.

Lions RB Kevin Jones (foot) is very unlikely to play this week, and RB T.J. Duckett (ankle) has already been ruled out.

Packers RB Vernand Morency (knee) didn't work Friday and is unlikely to dress for Sunday's game in New York, which means Brandon Jackson will be Green Bay's starter again.

Wide Receivers

Bengals WR T.J. Houshmandzadeh (knee, probable) had a full practice Friday and should be ready for Sunday's game at Cleveland.

Packers WR Greg Jennings (hamstring) didn't practice Friday and will probably sit Sunday at New York. That puts rookie WR James Jones in the starting lineup again. As for WR Donald Driver (foot), no worries – he's not on the injury report this week.

Ravens WR Mark Clayton (toe) was limited during the practice week and is listed as questionable. You need a safer option for now in your starting lineup; Clayton was hardly used in the opener. Teammate Demetrius Williams (chest) is also listed as questionable.

Rams WR Drew Bennett (thigh) had a decent workout Friday and is expected to play against the 49ers Sunday.

Cardinals WR Bryant Johnson (hamstring) missed some work Friday and is considered questionable. Given how Matt Leinart and the Arizona passing game struggled Monday, it's too soon to take a chance on this offense's No. 3 target.

Seahawks WR D.J. Hackett has a high ankle sprain and is expected to miss at least a month. Nate Burleson will start while Hackett is out, and Bobby Engram will also pick up extra snaps.

Chiefs WR Eddie Kennison (hamstring) won't play at Chicago, and it's possible he could be out several weeks. WR Dwayne Bowe is expected to start in Kennison's place against the Bears.

Cowboys WR Terry Glenn had his knee scoped Thursday and is hoping to return in late October or early November.

Other Positions

Chargers TE Antonio Gates (back) is listed as probable, so barring a late setback, he's fine for New England.

Eagles TE L.J. Smith (groin) isn't 100 percent yet, though the team lists him as probable.

Bears TE Greg Olsen (knee) did some work during the week but he's still very iffy for Sunday's game against Kansas City. It's too soon to use him for fantasy purposes.

Bengals PK Shayne Graham (hip) practiced the last two days and is expected to go at Cleveland. He's listed as probable.

Jaguars PK Josh Scobee (quad) is expected to miss at least a month. Veteran PK John Carney steps in to replace him.

Three significant offensive line injuries to be aware of: Rams OT Orlando Pace (shoulder) is out for the year; Redskins OT Jon Jansen (knee) is out for the year; Ravens OT Jonathan Ogden (toe) is out indefinitely.

By Michael Salfino

Whether your fantasy fortunes were good or bad, you must remind yourself that it was just one week (or about 6 percent of the NFL regular season).

Upgrade

Randy Moss, WR, Patriots: I’ve gone from “not too worried” to appropriately worried that he’ll beat me. But I’d be a seller if I owned him. Not for another WR; there’s no point to that. But you might be able to fetch a preseason consensus top 10 or 12 RB for him now and I’d move on that. You never know what’s really behind the curtain with Moss. Plus, the Patriots play to win, not feed individual performance. So, don’t expect a consistent number of targets each week like with do with other receivers viewed as WR1s.

Ronald Curry, WR, Raiders: We’ll upgrade him for now to a WR3 in 12-team leagues. But I still don’t like relying on him long term because there’s a good chance that the Raiders are going to have rookie JaMarcus Russell start games Dec. 1 or earlier, and when that happens, you are not going to want to be invested in the Raiders passing game because it will almost certainly be very, very ugly.

Javon Walker, WR, Broncos: I liked what I saw from Broncos second-year QB Jay Cutler. The Broncos generated almost 500 yards against a decent Bills defense in Buffalo. Over 300 of those yards came via the passing game. Walker didn’t find the end zone, but was very involved and very often Cutler’s first read, which is what you’re looking for in a solid, No. 1 fantasy receiver. Walker is quite clearly that. The only caution here is that the Broncos defense is so good now, they might not need to throw much.

Travis Henry, RB, Broncos: Looked like every other Broncos running back – very, very good. He got 33 cheap yards on an option play that the Broncos would be foolish to try again. But Henry was productive even without the trickery. Henry owners must get Selvin Young and hope Shanahan’s depth chart doesn’t change because Henry has had chronic injury problems and is quite old (29 next month) for a running back.

Adrian Peterson, RB, Vikings: He’s Superman at running back. Big, tough, fast, powerful, elusive…. The Fantasy Gods stepped in and smote Chester Taylor in the first quarter of Week 1, righting the injustice of Peterson not being the opening-day starter. The Vikings clearly want second-year man Tarvaris Jackson to be a caretaker QB. So there are not going to be enough points generated by them for Peterson to have a monster season.

No Change

Ben Roethlisberger, QB, Steelers: I’ve been high on him all summer. You can’t quarrel with the results (4 TD passes). But I’m disappointed that the Steelers ran two-thirds of the time on first down in the first half on Sunday. Forget the second half stats, because the game turned into a massacre. Roethlisberger has always carved up base defenses on first down and Sunday was no different: 2-for-4 for 55 yards and a TD in the first half. Though he’s unchanged in my eyes (I had him as a preseason Top 10 fantasy QB), he’s probably a big upgrade for you.

Edgerrin James, RB, Cardinals: Anyone watching the game heard the announcers gushing about how hard James was running. We hear that from announcers when a back they like (usually an older back with his best days behind him) is getting creamed by the defense. James can no longer make people miss and has lost any vestige of explosive playmaking ability. He’s incapable of generating big stats and is an injury waiting to happen.

Larry Johnson, RB, Chiefs: I got the idea for a Fantasy Suicide
Prevention Hotline thinking of Johnson owners unfortunate enough to watch the Chiefs offense flounder in Houston, of all places. LJ’s stock has now sunk to a level where I’d be a buyer. His owners are staring down the barrel at Chicago (this week), Minnesota, Jacksonville and San Diego. I can’t deny these are all very nasty run defenses (though Chicago was below average in 2006). But we were all similarly worried last year when the Chiefs scored one TD the first two weeks while losing their starting QB. Johnson ended up with almost 2,200 total yards and 19 TDs. Can the Chiefs offense be significantly worse this year?

Clinton Portis, RB, Redskins: He’s undoubtedly talented. But health
continues to be a problem, as he ended up splitting carries with Ladell Betts after bruising his ribs in the early going. The Redskins lost right tackle Jon Jansen (ankle) for the season, but didn’t seem to miss a beat against the tough Dolphins run defense.

Downgrade

Laurence Maroney, RB, Patriots: He got less than half the snaps at running back on Sunday and garbage time had little to do with this. Also, he’s looking unlikely to be the goal-line back. Heath Evans punched it in from one-yard out in what was arguably garbage time, but Sammy Morris got the short-yardage carry earlier and Maroney got no short-yardage looks. I thought he could easily get 15-to-17 TDs in August. Now, I’m thinking 7-to-10.

Matt Leinart, QB, Cardinals: New coach Ken Whisenhunt called run about two-thirds of the time on first down. He initially said he was going to emphasize a power running game irrespective of his personnel before later backing off that claim. It seems his first take was the accurate reflection of his coaching personality. This is bad news for those of us invested in the Cardinals passing game.

Vernon Davis, TE, Niners: I’ve said all summer that Alex Smith is a
bust until further notice and nothing I saw Monday night made me change my mind. The Niners threw the majority of time on first down. He had chances to make plays. But he’s incapable. Davis will always tempt us with his freakish athleticism. But he wasn’t ever a big-time playmaker in college and doesn’t seem to possess the feel for route-running needed to overcome a weak QB.

By David Ferris

Following are complete fantasy football rankings based on this week's matchups for all the major positions (QB, RB, WR, TE, K, team defense). They are based on a combined yardage/scoring system (4 points for a passing touchdown, 6 points for a rushing/receiving touchdown, one point for every 25 passing yards, one point for every 10 rushing/receiving yards).

Updated every Saturday in light of injury and other news from around the NFL.

>> Continue reading: Week 2 Fantasy Football player rankings

Steve McNair is not the downfield thrower he used to be. We expect TV announcers to live in a player's past. But Ravens coach Brian Billick has no excuse.

During Monday night's telecast, ESPN noted McNair had a NFL-best 115.1 rating on passes over 21 yards from scrimmage in 2006 (it was really 89.4, far below Drew Brees' NFL best mark on deep passes). The announcers admonished Brian Billick for not giving McNair enough chances to heave.

Even if ESPN wasn't so far off on their own numbers (mine came from their Web site), they've ignored the law of large numbers. Small numbers are viewed with great skepticism in statistics. So, in sports, when you're told someone is great at doing something that he doesn't get a chance to do nearly enough, question whether he's really all that good at it in the first place.

In other words, what McNair did on 38 random passes in 2006 means very little. And when we expand the sample of passes over 21 yards from scrimmage to include those he threw in 2005, his attempts go up to 81 and his cumulative QB rating drops from 89.4 to 57.4, far below the NFL average of 69.4 on these deep throws since '05.

To get better numbers to gauge QB arm strength, I look at passes thrown 11-to-20 yard from scrimmage because that doubles the number of plays we're looking at (to about 20 percent of all attempts).

Let's examine top TD throwers of 2006 and see if Functional Arm Strength (as I define it) played a significant part in their success. Also, let's see if there's some reasonable consistency from year to year.

Last year, the most prolific scoring passers were Peyton Manning (120.3 QB rating on 11-to-20 yard passes in 2006, 85.2 in '05), Carson Palmer (88.3 last year, 130.9 in '05), Drew Brees (100.8, 116.2) and Marc Bulger (98.6, 84.3). Seems like a useful stat. And it gets better if you pro-rate and include Tony Romo (29 TD-pass pace last year as starter). Romo had a 108.9 rating on 11-to-20-yard passes in '05 and clocked in at 156.3 with three TD passes on tosses that distance Sunday night.

Of course the confidence the announcers and Billick apparently had in McNair proved unfounded, as he badly overthrew an open receiver on a deeper throw in the final minutes, resulting in a pick and long return that set the stage for Cincy's winning TD.

The Bengals forced six turnovers versus Baltimore. In 2005 they forced 43 before falling back to 29 last year. Only the Vikings and the Bears have been consistently in the mid-30s in takeaways the past two seasons. Even the vaunted Ravens defense forced just 23 turnovers in 2005. Takeaways appear to be quite random.

Now some player recommendations.

Buy

Tom Brady, QB, Patriots: We told you last year about Brady's huge performance decline in 11-to-20 yard passes. Maybe it was his shoulder, or his garbage receivers. On Sunday, on passes over 11 yards from scrimmage: 8-for-9 for 183 yards and a TD. Times have changed.

Marshawn Lynch, RB, Bills: I bet all summer that the Bills were full of it when they said Anthony Thomas (minus-1 yard) was in line for serious committee work. Lynch (21 touches) seems as much a feature back as anyone.

Hold

Lee Evans, WR, Bills: When your passing game is going up against the Broncos, points will be hard to come by. Sure, Evans just missed a long TD. But five total yards stings. Shake it off.

Plaxico Burress, WR, Giants: Believe nothing you hear from the Giants about Eli Manning's shoulder injury until you see him on the field, which is rumored to be this week, next month or, gulp, next year.

Marc Bulger, QB, Rams: I was all set to sound the alarm before realizing Bulger threw 10 TD passes in December last year without LT Orlando Pace (out for the season). Steven Jackson shrugged off Pace's absence last year, too.

Sell

Larry Fitzgerald, WR, Cardinals: The Cardinals ran two-thirds of the time on first down Monday night, which means new coach Ken Whisenhunt is trying to import his 2005 Steelers offense. Fitzgerald isn't even on the field in one-WR sets near the goal line.

By David Ferris

I guess Randy Moss doesn't need training camp much, as he spent Sunday afternoon toasting the Jets secondary and partying like it was 2003. Tom Brady's supporting cast (and fantasy stock) has never been higher; consider that Reche Caldwell was New England's No. 1 receiver last year, but he didn't even make the club this time around. Don't overlook Wes Welker's contribution to the offense; he did a nice job working underneath in the opener and in a nutshell could be this year's Mike Furrey.

I'm not saying it's time to bail on Larry Johnson yet, but a few of his owners were drinking Hemlock Cocktails at the sports bar I dropped in on Sunday. You can't blame them, given how bad the rest of the Kansas City offense looked Sunday against an ordinary (if underrated) Houston defense. Say hello to eight men in the box every week, LJ, and that's without the benefit of the blocking sleds the Chiefs had in 2005-2006. And oh yeah, LaMont Jordan called, he wants his nickname back.

Speaking of Jordan, his fantasy value gets a major spike from the new coaching staff; last year's overmatched offensive coordinator, Tom Walsh, all but eliminated Jordan in the passing game, but the resurgent Jordan was all over the field Sunday (15-70 rushing, 9-89 receiving).

The problem has never been lack of talent with Titans RB Chris Brown, it's been other things; an upright style of running that makes him prone to injury, and a tendency to put the ball on the ground. By any account his 175-yard opener at Jacksonville was a stunner, though he'll probably stick in the time-share with LenDale White (18 carries, 66 yards) for now. White, for what it's worth, looked painfully slow to the hole on a key fourth-and-goal carry.

Somewhere in the Pacific Northwest Jim Mora Jr. is kicking himself for not giving Matt Schaub a chance to play when both were with the Falcons. And perhaps the Texans are knocking themselves, too, for not kicking David Carr to the curb a year earlier. Schaub consistently made good decisions in the opening-day win over Kansas City, and his home run ball to Andre Johnson was a throw Carr consistently missed (or didn't even try) over the last few seasons. This team has a legitimate chance to win eight or more games for the first time ever, in part because of a cushy schedule.

Give the Denver secondary credit for shutting down Lee Evans (two catches, five yards), albeit Evans was open for a long pass late and J.P. Losman just missed him. Volatility rules the wide receiver position more than any other; the difference between a strong week and a washout Sunday is just one overthrown pass.

The Rams are concerned that Pro Bowl tackle Orlando Pace could miss significant time after injuring his shoulder in the opener. In theory an injury to a star lineman hurts the running game more than the passing game, but when Pace got hurt in the middle of the 2006 season, it crippled the intermediate and deep passing game (and Torry Holt) more than anything else, and oddly, Steven Jackson thrived even without Pace in the mix. That all said, losing Pace would be a terrible blow to the St. Louis offense, and something Jackson, Holt and Marc Bulger owners don't want to see.

The Colts defense stunned everyone by stopping the Saints offense in the Thursday opener, but that doesn't mean this unit is a force to be reckoned with, at least not yet. Tony Dungy's scheme typically has a better chance to succeed against finesse teams (like the Saints), but a sterner test will come when Indy matches up with a physical club that wants to pound it between the tackles. In brief, that's a major part of why Jacksonville has given Indianapolis fits over the years.

Even though Vernand Morency (knee) didn't play in Green Bay's opener with Philadelphia, he still gained ground in the backfield carousel as Brandon Jackson (15 carries, 40 yards) went nowhere. We'll see if Morency is able to practice this week.

Reggie Brown was targeted six times from Donovan McNabb, though just one pass was completed. The bigger concern to Brown: No. 3 wideout Jason Avant (three catches, 54 yards, touchdown) worked his way into the rotation nicely, and Kevin Curtis had a respectable debut (53 yards, with McNabb missing him deep at least once).

There are plenty of glowing things you can say about Minnesota's defense, but what impressed me most were the six sacks. This team didn't always pressure the QB with consistency last year, and for all of Joey Harrington's fleas as a quarterback, he's normally good at getting rid of the ball. I look at the Vikings schedule and I can't see why this unit can't sneak into the Top 10 (perhaps the Top 5) for fantasy defenses.

Quick Hits

: It didn't take long for the Bills to hitch up the wagon to No. 1 pick Marshawn Lynch (21 touches, 99 yards, TD), while Anthony Thomas hardly played . . . Journeyman Derrick Ward stepped in as the Giants featured back when Brandon Jacobs (knee) went down Sunday night. Ward, a former seventh-round pick of the Jets, had an undistinguished 35 carries (for 123 yards) with the Giants back in 2005 . . . Give an upgrade to Jon Kitna, who sliced up a good Oakland defense for most of the day and really made just one bad decision (the end-zone interception in the first quarter). Kitna can't be blamed for the second pick, a pass that slid through Roy Williams' hands . . . You watch Plaxico Burress on a good day and you wonder why he's not in the Pro Bowl every year . . . Jason Witten is a fine player, but not as good as the Giants are making him look Sunday night. Get your tight ends ready to roll when they go up against Big Blue . . . Packers PK Mason Crosby drilled all three of his field-goal tries, one of them a 53-yarder that would have been good from 65. It looks like the club knew was it was doing when it cut Dave Rayner . . . The key for Jamal Lewis will be staying in one piece over a murderous opening six weeks. The Cleveland schedule against the run gets much easier after the bye, other than the trips to Pittsburgh and Baltimore . . . All Adrian Peterson needs to be an immediate star is some luck with injuries. It matters not to me if Chester Taylor is on the field; the Vikings realize that Peterson is the offense's meal ticket, even as they'll take the high road publicly . . . Laurence Maroney passed the eyeball test no problem, but with no receptions and others getting the goal-line work, his fantasy owners have reason to be concerned.