Projo Fantasy Sports Blog

By David Ferris

Quarterbacks

Lions QB Jon Kitna (back) has been practicing all week, isn't on the injury report, and should be fine at Oakland, though he'll get a stern test from the underrated Raiders defense.

Patriots QB Tom Brady (shoulder) worked the last two days and is a cinch to start at New York Sunday. The Pats like to have Brady on the injury report whenever possible, just for grins, though he was held back in Wednesday's practice.

Jets QB Chad Pennington (pelvis) had three straight days of full practice, cementing his place under center on Sunday. He's listed as probable.

Running Backs

Redskins RB Clinton Portis (knee) had a good week of practice and although he's listed as probable, he should be ready for a decent share of the work against Miami.

Jets RB Thomas Jones (calf) continues to be listed as questionable, though he said he felt okay at Friday's practice. It's very likely we won't know his definite status until Sunday, and you get the idea Leon Washington is probably going to see a fair amount of touches against New England, either way.

The Lions are encouraged by the work RB Kevin Jones (foot) did this week, but there's no guarantee he'll play Sunday, and even if he were to see action, it would be in a complimentary role. His official status is doubtful.

Packers RB Brandon Jackson (concussion) had a full day of practice Friday and should be on the field Sunday against the Eagles. He'll be needed with Vernand Morency (knee) very questionable.

49ers RB Frank Gore (hand), Patriots RB Laurence Maroney (shoulder), and Broncos RB Travis Henry (knee) are all off the injury report this week, so start 'em if you got 'em.

Wide Receivers

Cowboys WR Terry Glenn is out indefinitely with a knee injury and definitely won't play Sunday against the Giants. Patrick Crayton will spell him in the starting lineup.

Packers WR Donald Driver (foot) worked Friday and while he's listed as probable on the injury report, he should be able to go Sunday without problem. Things don't look as good for WR Greg Jennings, who has a balky hamstring, didn't practice Friday, and is listed as questionable. If Jennings can't go on Sunday, rookie WR James Jones, off a very impressive preseason, will get the start.

Bengals WR T.J. Houshmandzadeh (knee) is listed as probable and did some work Friday after missing the previous two days. Barring a setback, he should be fine for the Monday opener with Baltimore.

Patriots WR Randy Moss (hamstring) was taken off the injury report Friday, so he'll go against the Jets. He's still a risky fantasy play, however, given how much time in camp he missed.

Bears WR Muhsin Muhammad has a minor ankle injury and was added to the injury report Friday. Nonetheless, he's probable and should be able to go at San Diego.

Ravens WR Mark Clayton (ankle) missed some time Friday, but he's still considered probable for the opener Monday at Cincinnati.

Rams WR Drew Bennett (quad) was limited in Friday's work and is very questionable for Sunday's game with Carolina. You should have enough depth at the position to not risk it with Bennett. The Rams aren't worried about Torry Holt's knee, however - Holt hasn't been on the injury report all week.

Giants WR Plaxico Burress (back) isn't on the injury report, and should be fine at Dallas.

Vikings WR Bobby Wade (ankle) had two full days of practice Thursday and Friday and should be fine against Atlanta Sunday.

Other Positions

Bears TE Greg Olsen (knee) is listed as doubtful, which extends the fantasy shelf life of Desmond Clark.

Eagles TE L.J. Smith (groin) is listed as probable, though he's still a risky start given how limited he was during the summer. Unless you're pressed at this position, I'd wait a week or two on Smith.

Bengals PK Shayne Graham (hip) has been practicing and should be fine for Monday's game with Baltimore. The club hasn't signed another kicker as of yet, an encouraging sign.

By David Ferris

Following are complete fantasy football rankings based on this week's matchups for all the major positions (QB, RB, WR, TE, K, team defense). They are based on a combined yardage/scoring system (4 points for a passing touchdown, 6 points for a rushing/receiving touchdown, one point for every 25 passing yards, one point for every 10 rushing/receiving yards).

>> Continue reading: Week 1 Matchup Meter

Following are complete fantasy football rankings based on this week's matchups for all the major positions (QB, RB, WR, TE, K, team defense). They are based on a combined yardage/scoring system (4 points for a passing touchdown, 6 points for a rushing/receiving touchdown, one point for every 25 passing yards, one point for every 10 rushing/receiving yards).

* = check status

Quarterback
1. Peyton Manning, IND vs. NO
2. Drew Brees, NO at IND
UPGRADE: Brilliant summer, and he'll be airing it out here.
3. Marc Bulger, STL vs. CAR
4. *Donovan McNabb, PHI at GB
5. Tom Brady, NE at NYJ

>> Continue reading: Fantasy Football Matchup Meter: Week 1 position rankings

By Michael Salfino

Note that some of you are seeing this piece a day early this week because of the Thursday Night season kickoff (Saints at Colts). Now let's look at some players in the news as the sun is rising on NFL 2007.

Upgrade

Hines Ward, WR, Steelers: I've seen drafts and even been in some where rising Steeler WR Santonio Holmes is being taken ahead of Ward. Okay, Ward had surgery on a broken nose. Not a big deal. (Easy for me to say.) Ward is 32, but not old for a receiver and still clearly the main man in Pittsburgh. I do think Roethlisberger has a big-bounce back, 22-to-25 TD season. But Ward is almost guaranteed to outperform Holmes this year. Holmes is only a good value relative to Ward being drafted at least two rounds earlier. He's in no way a better draft bet than Ward.

Neil Rackers, K, Cardinals: It's home-run derby when Rackers kicks off. The returners are like left fielders just standing still and watching the ball sail over their heads. Of course, Rackers can boom long-distance field goals, too. He's at a discount because of a sub-par 2006; but everything is lined up for him to again be the game's most dominant kicker: talent, kicking environment, offense, schedule…. And he has a late bye, a huge plus because you should NEVER draft two kickers.

David Patten, WR, Saints: I like him as a pocket pick. It looks like he'll be a No. 3 receiver at worst and maybe a No. 2 if Devery Henderson can't stay healthy. Henderson, as my colleague Scott Pianowski points out, might be a one-trick pony with the long ball. Patten can be a veteran, stabilizing influence for the Saints very young receiving corps. Forget about rookie first-rounder Robert Meachem, who had minor knee surgery earlier this summer and never moved up the depth chart. If a rookie receiver doesn't come out of camp with a very defined role, his season is almost certain to be a total washout.

No Change

Larry Johnson, RB, Chiefs: Forget about reports he'll share more carries in Week 1 after the holdout. That's a short-term deal. Damon Huard being elevated to starter is good news only when the alternative is Brodie Croyle, a former third-round pick clearly overwhelmed by even vanilla preseason defenses. QB could definitely be a problem with Huard if his 2006 was a fluke. The offensive line is a major question mark for the first time in years. I'm not worried about the magical 400-carry threshold. That's just an arbitrary number. And if it's such a big deal, why not predict doom and gloom for a guy like LaDainian Tomlinson who gets almost as many touches (carries plus catches)?

Clinton Portis, RB, Redskins: Man, is he slip-sliding down the draft board. No one is happy about taking him even though everyone respects his talent and his production when healthy in 2006 (seven TDs in eight games). But health is the rub with Portis, still young and fast. Another problem for Portis owners is Ladell Betts, who proved last year that he deserves more than backup status. But then so did this next guy ...

Michael Turner, RB, Chargers: His high-ankle sprain was rumored to keep him out until October. Now, he may go in Week 1. This bears watching. A healthy Turner plus an injured LaDainian Tomlinson equals a fantasy championship for all Turner owners. It's that simple. Of course, Turner is unrestricted next year in free agency and will absolutely be starting somewhere interesting in 2008 no matter what happens to LT in 2007.

Downgrade

Ronald Curry, WR, Raiders: A fast riser in some educated circles. Daunte Culpepper is the starter in Oakland and that's good news considering the alternatives and how Culpepper looked this summer. The Raiders seem to have a more professional coaching staff this year, but it's very inexperienced. There's enough uncertainty to make me uncomfortable thinking of Curry as anything more than a No. 4 receiver, which means I lose him in almost every draft. I can live with that.

Shayne Graham, K, Bengals: He's iffy this week with a sore hip but should go. You can't be looking at Week 1 injury reports for your kicker. You have enough real players to worry about. Let someone else deal with the aggravation even though Graham could easily be a top five kicker. But then, so can about 15 or 20 other guys.

Jerricho Cotchery, WR, Jets: All eyes are on Chad Pennington to see if the terrible preseason was a fluke. We hoped his arm strength would return to pre-injury level (still sub-par), but were disappointed. Meanwhile, rising second-year QB Kellen Clemens must have looked to head coach Eric Mangini just like Tom Brady 2001. Will Mangini wait to see if injury forces his hand like it did for his mentor Bill Belichick that year or eye a switch on merit? Clemens can make all the throws. But does he have enough of the intangibles that Pennington so clearly possesses? The Jets pass protection is also an area of concern. Cotchery can smoothly operate in the intermediate area of the field, but needs the right QB.

Randy Moss, WR, Patriots: There were reports that he was going to be cut, but that proved to just be a wild, unfounded rumor. Moss, though, didn't get on the field the entire preseason. This was not how the marriage to Tom Brady was supposed to begin. There's no honeymoon period with the bullets now flying for real. I'm concerned that Moss's leg injuries are chronic and that his career as a reliable fantasy weapon are over. I'll pass and am no longer too worried about someone beating me with him. But if he could ever stay off the injury report three weeks running, I'd be a buyer. Of course then, it's too late.

By Michael Salfino

Last year in Week 7, the Colts went into Denver to face a Bronco defense that gave up two TDs the first six weeks of the season. My advice was to expect Manning to peform well because, while we know he’s great, we could not yet know whether the Denver defense was truly great or whether their dominance to date was a small-sample- size fluke.

As you may remember, Manning sliced up the Denver defense that last week in October more coldly and cruelly than Michael Myers in all the Halloween sequels, prequels and remakes combined. He finished 32-for-39 for 345 yards and three TD passes in the Colts' 34-31 win.

This week, the Cincinnati Bengals and Carson Palmer play at home versus the Ravens. In the most recent Pro Football Prospectus, writer Bill Barnwell says that the Bengals will very likely struggle offensively because the Ravens defense was so good last year. He more specifically advises that fantasy league players bench the highly coveted Palmer and presumably the similarly valued Chad Johnson (WR), T.J. Houshmandzadeh (WR) and Rudi Johnson (RB).

He reasons that when a players faces the defenses most highly ranked at the end of the year, their performance declines appreciably. According to Barnwell, second-tier QBs, RBs and WRs generally perform better against low-ranked defenses than their first-tier brethren do against top-ranked defenses.

There’s nothing earth-shattering about that observation, assuming we know who the great defenses are going to be at the end of the year. But if we didn’t last year in Week 7, how can we this year in Week 1?

The statistics used by Barnwell are proprietary and too complicated to describe here. Let’s approximate them by looking at the defenses that allowed the least yards per pass (YPA, including sack yards) and yards per rush (YPR) over an entire season. How did they fair the next year?

Chicago and Baltimore are the only top 10 pass defenses from 2005 that repeated the feat in 2006. That may legitimize Baltimore’s defense for 2007. But the Eagles, the Bills, the Jaguars and the Raiders finished with a better YPA allowed last year than the Ravens. Do you bench Palmer and his receivers against them, too?

Also, note where some other top 10 pass defenses from 2005 finished in 2006: last (Redskins, 3rd in ’05), 31st (Falcons from 8th), 16th (Steelers from 4th) and 14th (Broncos from 6th).

Performance seems more consistent in defending the run. Here, 6 of the top 10 of 2005 (YPR) finished top 10 again in 2006. But the Chargers fell to 20th, the Eagles to 24th and the Seahawks to 28th.

Finally, remember the Ravens finished 2005 second in pass defense (YPA allowed) and Palmer that year tossed five TD passes versus them and, in 2004 (when the Ravens again finished top 10), he threw for 382 yards and three more TDs versus them at home.

Now let’s get beyond matchups and look more closely at some of the summer’s more interesting players.

Buy

Ronnie Brown, RB, Dolphins: Does it get darkest before dawn or, as my grandfather said, before it gets utterly, hopelessly black? I can’t buy Jesse Chatman (inactive since 2005) as a threat to Brown’s playing time. The talent that made him the No. 2 overall pick sits in the discount bin.

Vince Young, QB, Titans: Getting no respect in nationwide fantasy drafts. But he’ll run for eight TDs and throw 16-to-20 more if he stays healthy. He didn’t have the supporting cast at Texas, either.

Hold

Randy McMichael, TE, Rams: He didn’t catch a pass this preseason. But I’ve never seen more vanilla August offenses or cameos by starters than this preseason. I put the over/under still at 60 catches.

Sell

Devery Henderson, WR, Saints: Everyone’s favorite WR sleeper is fighting with journeyman David Patten for the No. 2 job next to Marques Colston.

D.J. Hackett, WR, Seahawks: Fantasy leaguers love him but Mike Holmgren doesn’t seem so sure, as Nate Burleson is in the starting mix next to Deion Branch.

Kevin Jones, RB, Lions: His Lis Franc foot injury typically requires a full-year recovery. He’ll try to play three months short of that. He’s on the active roster, but don’t expect much of anything until mid-October.

By David Ferris

If you read every single news item from the NFL during the preseason, you'd never have time to eat, sleep, and shower. Here's a condensed version for you, all the info fantasy owners need to know on the cusp of the regular season.

The Jaguars finally cut the cord on QB Byron Leftwich, releasing him and anointing David Garrard the starter. Neither of these guys has shown much as a passer, but Garrard offers a little more fantasy value based given his running ability. In leagues that require two starters at the position, Garrard is worth considering as your second or third option on the depth chart. As for the Jacksonville wideouts, select them at your own risk - they weren't good plays with Leftwich, and things probably won't get any better with Garrard.

Raiders head coach Lane Kiffin says he's going to keep the identity of his starting QB a secret, but all the context clues point to Daunte Culpepper getting the job to open the season. This doesn't really make Culpepper a hot fantasy prospect, but it does upgrade the skill players in Oakland's offense - otherwise, this unit would be struggling along with Josh McCown. WR Ronald Curry should be able to build on his excellent finish to 2006, and RB LaMont Jordan figures to get off to a good start in the first month as the Raiders play a very favorable schedule (including Detroit and Cleveland the first two weeks).

It's still a messy backfield-by-committee in Carolina, where DeShaun Foster stays at the top of the depth chart ahead of DeAngelo Williams. No one seems to dispute that Williams is the more talented player here (and a much better receiver), but Foster has some points in his favor: he's a better fit for the zone-blocking scheme, and by default a better blocker (Williams really struggles in blitz pickup). Add it all up and there's not much to get excited about; Williams has been too costly in drafts this month to be any sort of value, and while Foster doesn't cost a lot in most leagues, he might not play enough to be worth starting on a consistent basis. It's also possible that someone else (perhaps journeyman Nick Goings) could get the goal-line work for the Panthers.

Mike Shanahan is known for pulling surprises in his backfield, and this year that surprise is named Selvin Young, an undrafted rookie who out of nowhere ascended to the No. 2 spot on the depth chart. Young still needs help to have any real fantasy value - Shanahan is committed to Travis Henry as the main guy here - but given the success of Denver's running game over the years, Young should be drafted in most medium and deep leagues.

While Houston's Jacoby Jones was probably the most exciting rookie receiver in August (scoring four touchdowns, two on punt returns), Green Bay's James Jones is another first-year player you should know. He'll open the year as the Packers No. 3 receiver, and some draft observers felt he had the best hands of anyone in April's pool (and yes, that includes Calvin Johnson).

Torry Holt's recovery from knee surgery has gone very slowly, and while the Rams don't expect him to miss any games, the club is resigned to the fact that this may an issue all season. As a result, Holt really can't be viewed as a first-tier receiving option in fantasy leagues, and he's someone I've avoided during the draft season. This isn't to suggest that Holt won't be productive, but there's far more risk here than normal.

Willis McGahee didn't get much blocking in his Buffalo days, and things don't look much different in Baltimore. OT Jon Ogden is at the end of his career and no longer a dominant path-clearer, and McGahee has looked sluggish for most of August. Temper expectations here.

Everyone forget this now, but Drew Brees played very poorly last summer as he slowly adjusted to Sean Payton's offense. This summer it's been exactly the opposite, as Brees has been letter-perfect (107.5 rating, 80 percent completions) and the Saints clearly have the most dynamic offense in the NFC. Reggie Bush also looks primed for a big year; he struggled adjusting to the pro game at the start of 2006, but he looked like a totally different runner in the second half.

Bears TE Desmond Clark looked undraftable a few weeks back, but he gets a respite now that rookie TE Greg Olsen is hurt. Say what you want about Chicago QB Rex Grossman, but he's always had a nice rapport with his tight ends, especially Clark.

Don't be surprised if Rudi Johnson gets a modest spike in his reception total. He's worked hard on that area over the last few months, and the Bengals say they can notice the improvement. This isn't going to turn Johnson into Reggie Bush overnight, but an extra 10-15 receptions could come out of this.

Charlie Frye will open the year as Cleveland's starting QB, then hand off to someone else - probably Brady Quinn - around Halloween. WR Braylon Edwards probably gets a kick forward with this news; he'd had decent rapport with Frye in the past, and ultimately Quinn will be an upgrade at the position.

Quick Hits: There's a solid possibility that Edgerrin James will lose some goal-line work to Marcel Shipp in Arizona . . . Willie Parker's full-time status in Pittsburgh doesn't look to be in jeopardy; Kevin Barlow and Verron Haynes didn't even make the club, and Najeh Davenport is an injury-prone backup . . . Maybe Randy McMichael will get a lot of work when the bell rings, but the St. Louis tight end didn't catch a pass in the preseason . . . If TE Bo Scaife doesn't lead Tennessee in receptions, I'll be very surprised. Scaife and Vince Young have always had a nice rapport, going back to their days together at Texas, and checkdowns will be very prominent in the Titans passing game this year . . . Terry Glenn is coming back slowly from his knee scope and might not be ready for the opening week. The Cowboys won't be hurt too much by this, as Patrick Crayton is a reliable No. 3 receiver . . . Reggie Brown might be Philadelphia's No. 1 receiver on paper, but he's not much better than Kevin Curtis, and Donovan McNabb is comfortable spreading the ball around in Andy Reid's offense. Brown also struggled with drops in the preseason . . . While Kevin Jones (foot) made it off the PUP list in Detroit, it doesn't mean he'll be ready to play anytime soon. Tatum Bell will get his shot to start, and do something in the opening few weeks . . . Eli Manning's fantasy stock has fallen considerably over the last year, but say this for him, he was sharp in August (107.1 rating, three touchdowns, no interceptions) . . . Seahawks WR Nate Burleson had a surprisingly decent camp, and while that still doesn't make him draft worthy in most leagues, it does chip away at D.J. Hackett's fantasy value . . . CFL veteran Kenton Keith won the Indianapolis lottery and will open the year as Joseph Addai's backup. More than anything, this underscores how important it is to the Colts that Addai doesn't get hurt . . . Forget about rookie QB JaMarcus Russell. Even if he were to sign tomorrow, he's not anywhere near ready to take a snap in the NFL. This winds up being a lost season for him, similar to what happened to Philip Rivers when he signed late with the Chargers back in 2004.