Projo Fantasy Sports Blog

By Michael Salfino

Click below to see complete fantasy football, full-season rankings to assist owners in drafts and auctions. These rankings are updated each week and based on a combined yardage/scoring system (4 points for a passing touchdown, 6 points for a rushing/receiving touchdown, one point for every 25 passing yards, one point for every 10 rushing/receiving yards).

In season, this cheat sheet becomes the Matchup Meter and ranks players based only on that week's opponent. Then, it's filed Wednesday night and updated every Saturday morning in light of injury and other news from around the NFL.

>> Continue reading: Latest position-by-position player rankings

By Michael Salfino

Running backs rule in fantasy football. Let's look at the weakest starters and see if we can find any value in them or in their backups. Again, average draft position (ADP) data courtesy of our friends at MockDraftCentral.com.

Upgrade

Cadillac Williams, Bucs (ADP: 42): Whenever a 25-year-old, healthy back who is guaranteed to start slides from the first round the year before to the fourth round presently, he's a solid value. Michael Pittman is around to steal some catches and probably the goal-line carries. But he's not as obvious a choice there as Mike Alstott was (at least to the unimaginative Jon Gruden). Maybe Jeff Garcia plays close to his 2006 level and the new offensive line gels.

Marshawn Lynch, Bills (ADP: 45): He's got the stench of a committee guy, but I still like the situation here. Anthony Thomas is 30 and if the Bills liked him as much as they're letting on, why would they draft Lynch? I'll bet Lynch gets 20 to 25 carries, not the 15 to 20 being projected. But be prepared for an anxious first month. Lynch is also bigger than Thomas, so I can't see him losing goal-line carries.

Julius Jones, Cowboys (ADP: 60): He's the starter, but almost every league drafts Marion Barber (ADP: 34) first. Jones has even gotten goal-line action this summer. Barber also was playing fullback last week and that makes me more bullish on Jones, who is, by far, the Cowboys most explosive runner.

DeShaun Foster, Panthers (ADP: 92): The offensive line has struggled this summer. Everyone but John Fox wants to turn the page on Foster and see what DeAngelo Williams can do. Williams was a great, multidimensional runner in college and is being aggressively drafted despite his backup status. If I had to have one of them, I'd wait the three or four rounds and tab Foster. We tend to forget the obvious fact that the path to playing time is easiest for the opening-day starter.

Jamal Lewis, Browns (ADP: 47): He is being treated like a leper by fantasy owners. But he's just turned 28 and says he's never felt better off the offseason ankle surgery. There's no serious competition for carries. The offensive line has to get better. Lewis can be a rare value play at running back. Just make sure he's your third option.

Vernand Morency, Packers (ADP: 105): I like that second-round pick Brandon Jackson has struggled this summer. But his ADP of 63 isn't enough of a discount. Note that Jackson never had more than 91 carries at Nebraska. It looks likely that Morency will get a least as much action and will probably start when healthy, so why pay a four-round premium for Jackson? If Jackson slides into the seventh or eighth round of any deep draft, he's an attractive value.

Fred Taylor, Jaguars (ADP: 61): Maurice Jones-Drew is being drafted in the second round almost everywhere, yet Taylor is starting and talking about a 1,500-rushing-yard season to get him to 11,000 for his career. Remember, he rushed for 1,146 last year on 5.0 per carry.

LaMont Jordan, Raiders (ADP: 74): Dominic Rhodes is suspended for four weeks. Rookie Michael Bush likely will be on injured reserve the entire year. So Jordan has no one to challenge him. The offense should be some semblance of professional relative to last year, with seemingly resurgent Daunte Culpepper operating in head coach Lane Kiffen's USC-styled offense (without the talent, of course).

No Change

Ronnie Brown, Dolphins (ADP: 19): I think he's going to drop more. I'd love him as a third-rounder, where it pays to speculate that he can be LaDainian Tomlinson-light in Cam Cameron's offense (imported from San Diego, where Cameron served as coordinator). Be aware that Cameron says Jesse Chatman is vying with Brown for the starting job. But Chatman was out of football for two years.

Warrick Dunn, Falcons (ADP: 103): Came out of his first preseason game with an apparent foot injury. He's in for a shock without Michael Vick around to keep those defensive ends staying wide to protect against boot action. The running lanes will shrink and the 32-year-old Dunn is unlikely to be able to find the tight spaces. Backup Jerious Norwood might be the league's most explosive runner.

Ahman Green, Texans (ADP: 43): The same player as James and two rounds cheaper. I generally hate 30-year-old RBs. But I'll draft anyone if the price is right, as it probably will be for Green. Remember, his offensive coordinator, ex-Packers coach Mike Sherman, loves him. His primary competition for carries is Ron Dayne. 'Nuff said.

LenDale White, Titans (ADP: 99): I'm listing him as a starter because he's being drafted higher, but Jeff Fisher has announced the dreaded committee to start the year. White should be the short-yardage guy, but QB Vince Young is probably the Titans best runner on the goal line. When you have a situation like this, you normally want to draft the second guy taken. But this has the makings of a true committee. So, I'd take a very late flyer on Chris Henry (ADP: 133) and hold on to him in the hopes that the Titans turn the page in December and give him an early 2008 tryout as a full-time guy.

Downgrade

Edgerrin James, Cardinals (ADP: 20): Head coach Ken Whisenhunt is backtracking from emphasizing the power running game after seeing James' decaying game this summer. Marcel Shipp seems set to get the goal-line carries. J.J. Arrington is as post-hype as you get, but has had a good camp and is worth a late-round pocket pick in deep leagues.

Clinton Portis, Redskins (ADP: 33): His knee was finally healthy enough for him to make it through a practice this week. But the missed action provides a perfect excuse for the coaching staff to sprinkle in a heavy dose of Ladell Betts (ADP: 76), who was the more effective runner by quite a wide margin in 2006. Last year, even in the eight games Portis was healthy, he had 20-plus carries just twice. Betts is also the better goal-line runner.

Chester Taylor, Vikings (ADP: 54): Adrian Peterson (ADP: 49) has done everything but wear a red cape this summer. Yet Taylor is still the starter. Peterson just oozes ability and should force his way into the vast majority of carries by Halloween. The offensive line and the defense seem conducive to a solid running game. But QB Tavaris Jackson is learning on the job and should be expected to struggle for stretches.

By Michael Salfino

These were supposed to be boom times for NFL pass catchers. At least that's what we thought in 2004, when 11 receivers had double-digit TD catches (including TE Antonio Gates).

But defensive coordinators are crafty. The side of the ball that's getting its brains beat out each week has great incentive to change. And secondaries have effectively responded. In 2005, eight receivers had double-digit TDs. Last year, just five: Cowboy Terrell Owens, Colt Marvin Harrison, Ram Torry Holt, Giant Plaxico Burress and Seahawk Darrell Jackson (now with the Niners).

Harrison, the only receiver to crack double digits all three years, is now 35 years old. Charger TE Antonio Gates is the only other man to do it back-to-back seasons of late (in '04 and '05 before falling back to nine last year).

We can confidently predict 10 or more TDs for Harrison and maybe Gates. But recent history suggests it's very unlikely that any of the other double-digit scorers of 2006 will repeat the feat in 2007.

Looking more deeply, however, Holt has gone 10, 9 and 10 in TD catches the last three years. Owens registered 14, 6 and 13, with that middle year marred by a lengthy suspension.

The obvious thing to look for when projecting top WRs is a quality QB. Ideally, the guy is also sure to be his team's primary receiver. Catch totals tell us a lot. But also looking at the number of times each team threw to a receiver ("targets"), regardless of the result, can uncover hidden value.

There were just nine receivers with more than 140 targets last year: Holt, Donald Driver (Packers), Andre Johnson (Texans), Chad Johnson (Bengals), Anquan Boldin (Cardinals), Chris Chambers (Dolphins), Laveranues Coles (Jets), Roy Williams (Lions) and Owens.

Of those, only Johnson and Coles caught more than 60 percent of targets. The best completion percentage for any receiver with more than 100 targets was T.J. Houshmandzadeh (Bengals) at 71.1 percent. Harrison and Mike Furrey (Lions) were the only other 100-plus target wideouts who caught more than 65 percent of their targets.

Just five tight ends had more than 100 targets: Jeremy Shockey (Giants), Gates, Todd Heap (Ravens), Kellen Winslow Jr. (Browns) and Tony Gonzalez (Chiefs). Winslow caught 74 percent of them, but for just 10 yards a pop. Gonzalez was most efficient -- 12.4 yards per catch with a 71-percent success rate on targets.

Of course, getting targets near the goal line gets you the TD glory. Just seven wideouts had 20 or more red-zone targets last year: Holt (30), Driver, Reggie Wayne (Colts), Chambers, Houshmandzadeh, Owens and Jerricho Cotchery (Jets).

The only TE with even 20 red zone targets was Gates, who caught 11 of those 21 passes, six for TDs.

Now let's use these stats to make some receiver recommendations for 2007.

Buy

Jerricho Cotchery, WR, Jets: If Chad Pennington can't make the necessary throws, Kellen Clemens look ready to step in. Either way, Cotchery will get extensive action and is a better red-zone weapon than Coles.

Lee Evans, WR, Bills: Definitely the league's most underrated receiver. He's one of those unique talents who doesn't need a good QB. But J.P. Losman really emerged in the second half of 2006.

Plaxico Burress, WR, Giants: The alpha male in the Giants passing game. Last year, he scored TDs on six of seven red-zone catches, the best percentage in football.

Hold

Calvin Johnson, WR, Lions: Experts wisely advise avoiding rookie receivers. But the freakishly talented Johnson is the exception to the rule. Unfortunately, Williams and Furrey provide too much competition for Johnson to pop like Randy Moss in 1998.

Sell

Dallas Clark, TE, Colts: His 52-percent success rate on targets was pretty terrible considering Peyton Manning was his QB. Indy will run more three-WR sets with explosive rookie Anthony Gonzalez manning the slot.

Darrell Jackson, WR, Niners: He's battled knee and toe injuries since 2005 and the Seahawks basically gave him away off a 10-TD season. They're either really dumb or know something.

Marques Colston, WR, Saints: Took the league by storm in 2006. Now, he's got the bull's-eye on his back. Always expect receivers to struggle in their first year as a true No. 1 receiver.

By David Ferris

If you read every single news item from the NFL this month, you'd never have time to eat, sleep, and shower. Here's a condensed version for you, all the news fantasy owners need to know four weeks into August (and with three preseason game in the books).

Damon Huard is a journeyman and an ordinary quarterback, but his appointment to the starting spot in Kansas City is good news for all the skill players on this offense, especially Larry Johnson. Second-year QB Brodie Croyle simply isn't ready to play at this level yet, something the KC coaches were wise to accept.

To anyone who overreacted to Vince Young's meltdown in New England, you can come in off the ledge now. Young threw for two scores and ran for a third in one half of play at Buffalo, and more importantly, he completed 13-of-19 throws. He'll have his share of messy passing games as the year goes along, but the production from his legs can't be ignored. As for the receivers in this team's offense, note that Young seems to look for his old college buddy, TE Bo Scaife, more than anyone else.

Travis Henry has no job-security concerns in Denver, but Cecil Sapp's solid performance against Cleveland (11 carries, 54 yards) might have him pushing Mike Bell for the backup position.

The Lions aren't worried about Jon Kitna's back spasms, but the situation in the backfield is enough to cue up "Panic in Detroit." Kevin Jones (foot) won't be ready for the start of the season, and Tatum Bell left Saturday's game in the first half with a shin injury (believed to be minor). T.J. Duckett and Brian Calhoun shouldn't be regular backs for a good offense, but by default Mike Martz might have to incorporate these guys into his game plan.

Top-shelf QBs Peyton Manning, Tom Brady and Drew Brees all looked letter-perfect in Week 3 and probably don't need another snap this summer. Tony Dungy was so content with what the passing game did in the first half against Detroit, he decided to pull Manning a quarter ahead of schedule (the original plan had Manning going three quarters).

You may not know much about WR Jacoby Jones yet, but you will soon enough. He played his college ball at Lane, a tiny school in Tennessee, but attracted enough attention for Houston to take him in the third round of April's draft. This month he's been doing all he can to blow his cover, running two punts back for touchdowns and scoring a third time on a reception. Jones will be the team's No. 2 or No. 3 wideout right out of the box, and he could make a Devin Hester-like impact on returns. Most of your opponents won't know who he is, so wait until the last two rounds to make a selection.

PK Neil Rackers went far too early in drafts last summer, as everyone overpaid for his 2005 stats. An ordinary season followed, and now Rackers comes at a reasonably cost again, so perhaps it's time to jump back on board. He's yet to miss a kick in the preseason, including a couple of bombs (50, 59 yards), and don't forget the kicker-friendly dome he's playing in half of the time. You should never be the first owner in your league to take a kicker, of course, but you can still be patient at this position and have a good shot to land Rackers.

RB Michael Turner has a high-ankle sprain and might not be ready to play until October. This might keep LaDainian Tomlinson on the field a little longer than usual even in blowout games, and it also means Darren Sproles could be incorporated more into the offense.

Anyone who tries to pigeonhole Bernard Berrian as merely a deep threat doesn't know what they're talking about. Berrian's more technically sound on intermediate and shorter routes than he's given credit for, and he's got a strong rapport built up with QB Rex Grossman (they've hooked up on a pair of scores this month). Berrian is capable of producing like a Top 15-20 receiver, without the sticker price to match.

While your opponents are overzealously reaching for Eagles WR Reggie Brown in the first third of the draft, why not wait and go for the value with WR Kevin Curtis? The savvy free-agent pickup has quickly grasped Andy Reid's offense, and Curtis probably has 40 percent chance to be this team's most productive receiver.

Don't be surprised if the Cowboys kick Martin Gramatica to the curb; he missed an extra point in the last preseason game, and also came down with a strained hamstring. Rookie Nick Folk stands to take the job if Gramatica can't, and the Dallas offense is capable of supporting a Top 10 fantasy kicker.

Someone has to catch the ball when Minnesota throws it this year, and it looks like WR Bobby Wade is going to be the first option. Wade had five catches for 85 yards against Seattle, and he also threw a touchdown on a gadget play (it makes no sense for teams to use these trick plays in the preseason, of course, but that's beside the point). Wade is completely off the radar in most leagues, and makes a nice late-round selection.

Laurence Maroney looked solid enough in his debut Friday at Carolina (15 carries, 58 yards), but note that Sammy Morris took some of the short-yardage work away.

Daunte Culpepper, believe it or not, has actually looked solid in Oakland's preseason games, and it looks all but definite he'll begin the year as the team's starter. Some stability at the position has a trickle-down effect on the rest of the skill players here, so give a mild nudge forward to LaMont Jordan, Ronald Curry (who scored last week) and Jerry Porter.

While he got plenty of help from the leaky San Diego secondary, Matt Leinart looked very sharp in his extended action Saturday. It remains to be seen what his upside will be in Ken Whisenhunt's offense, but I can't imagine Leinart having a bad year. And don't overlook No. 3 WR Bryant Johnson, who's turned into one of the better deep threats in the league.

WR Santonio Holmes looks ready for a major step forward in his second season, not that his rookie year was a washout by any means (49 catches, 824 yards). He's made at least one big play in every preseason game this summer.