Projo Fantasy Sports Blog

By Stu Rosenberg
McClatchy Newspapers

MODESTO, Calif. - Running backs are the way to go early in your fantasy football draft
With another NFL season speeding toward us, it's time to get serious about Fantasy Football.

For my own preparation, I invested in 10 magazines too many, destroyed two computer mice while clicking on too many Web sites to count and inhaled more cups of coffee than any all-night finals cram session I ever pulled during my Fresno State experience.

The result: The creation of a 12-team, 16-round mock draft - the first 13 picks of which I'll share with you here (check out the entire mock draft at modbee.com) and the reasons behind them.

This isn't intended to be the holy draft template. It's merely another point of view that could help you in preparing for your draft.

1. RB LaDainian Tomlinson, Chargers - Tomlinson, the undisputed fantasy heavyweight champion, will be the first pick in every draft that doesn't include relatives of Steven Jackson or Larry Johnson.

Tomlinson set the bar ridiculously high in 2006 when he scored an NFL-record 31 touchdowns and displayed rare triple-threat ability by rushing for 1,815 yards, catching 56 passes for 508 yards and throwing for two scores.

One might expect a decline, but LT's quest for a Super Bowl ring could drive him to match or even surpass those numbers.

2. RB Steven Jackson, Rams - Jackson, whose 2,334 yards from scrimmage (1,528 rushing and 806 receiving) led the NFL last season, says he wants to reach 2,500 yards this season. I wouldn't bet against him, nor would I bet against him topping last season's 16 TDs.

3. RB Larry Johnson, Chiefs - There were more sightings of Elvis than Johnson until Kansas City's All-Pro running back ended his summer-long holdout Tuesday by signing a six-year, $45 million deal.

Phew. Glad that's over with.

It's once again safe to select LJ (1,789 yards and 19 TDs in '06) among the top three picks.

4. RB Shaun Alexander, Seahawks - Alexander was the toast of the NFL two years ago, when he rushed for 1,880 yards and scored a then-record 28 TDs. A broken left foot cost him six games last season, but with his foot healed and the Madden Curse lifted (good luck, Vince Young), the former MVP is ready to run wild again.

5. RB Joseph Addai, Colts - Too high you say? Think again. Addai can run (1,081 yards and seven TDs in 226 attempts), he can catch (40 receptions for 325 yards), and he's Indy's featured back now that Dominic Rhodes, with whom he split time as a rookie, has moved to Oakland.

Add another 100 or so carries at 4.8 yards a pop and another 30 to 40 receptions and Addai's stats become Tomlinson-esque.

6. QB Peyton Manning, Colts - A Super Bowl ring with an MVP award attached to it, lucrative endorsement deals and a memorable host spot on "Saturday Night Live." It's good to be Peyton Manning.

And it's good to have the future Hall of Famer on your side. As certain as death and taxes, draft Manning and say hello to 4,200 yards and 35 TDs.

7. RB Frank Gore, 49ers - A broken hand has made Gore a preseason spectator, which isn't a bad thing because it will keep the reigning NFC rushing champion's legs fresh for when the games count for real.

Gore set a franchise record by rushing for 1,695 yards and caught 61 passes for another 485 yards in '06. If San Francisco's offense continues to improve, Gore will get his yards and his touchdown total could jump from nine to 19.

8. RB Willie Parker, Steelers - Parker (1,494 yards rushing, 16 TDs) was the only thing that went right in the Steelers' fall from Super Bowl champion to playoff outsider last season. No reason not to expect those type of numbers again.

9. RB Reggie Bush, Saints - The former USC star posted modest numbers as a rookie last season with New Orleans, but we haven't see anything yet. He might not rush for 1,000 yards or catch 100 passes, but he could come close and he'll be the Saints' primary red-zone threat. Can you say 20 TDs?

10. RB Rudi Johnson, Bengals - Solid, consistent and durable, Johnson will do what he always does: Rush for 1,400 yards and score 12 TDs.

11. RB Brian Westbrook, Eagles - The injury risk is great, but so are the potential rewards a healthy Westbrook (1,217 yards and seven TDs rushing, 77 catches for 699 yards and four TDs) can bring.

Feeling lucky?

12. WR Chad Johnson, Bengals - Why use your first pick on a second-tier back who offers no guarantees when you can have arguably the game's best receiver, who has averaged 93 catches, 1,359 yards and eight TDs the last three years?

13. QB Carson Palmer, Bengals - He passed for 4,035 yards and 28 TDs in his first season after having his knee rebuilt. Imagine the possibilities now that his health and confidence no longer are in question. Pairing him with Johnson could be gold.

By Michael Salfino

Getting closer to D-Day (Draft Day), also known as Christmas morning for grownups. We're relying again on our friends at MockDraftCentral.com to give us average draft position (ADP) rankings for thousands of leagues that drafted in the past week. We'll use these rankings as the basis for our recommendations. Upgrade means we think the player will earn a profit relative to this draft investment. Downgrade means we think he'll take a loss.

Upgrade

Tatum Bell, RB, Lions (ADP: 66): He's moving up the charts very slowly. Right now, there are conflicting reports on whether Kevin Jones (torn foot) gets PUP-ed for the first six weeks. Jones is finally running through tackling dummies, but not real ones yet. Bell is the kind of guy who could take a six-week audition and, um, run with it. He's got the stench of failure on him now because of how he never was able to seize that primo Denver job. But Detroit could be a nice gig for a running back: plenty of speed at WR to keep the safeties deep, potentially explosive offense, fast playing surface…. Jones continues to be drafted just a round later, which is too high until we see him practice.

Chris Brown, RB, Titans (ADP: 148): I suspect he's moved way up the charts given his solid game last weekend and LenDale White's inability to get on the field until Wednesday. White (ankle/knee/fat) is being drafted around 97. Chris Henry, the workout-wonder of a rookie, is being grabbed, on average, at 136. Brown has a good chance to start opening day and thus has turned into the value play among this trio. While I still recommend drafting Henry, he's raw and inexperienced having never started in college or even high school.

Anthony Gonzalez, WR, Colts (ADP: 165): He's a pocket pick for me. Make sure you grab him late. Even if he's the third WR in the Colt offense, he'll be dangerous on days when Peyton Manning is dealing (i.e., most days). Forget about a 10-TD season in the slot like Brandon Stokley had as a No. 3 receiver in 2004 when Manning threw 49 TD passes. I expect only 30-to-35 TD passes from Manning. But what happens if Reggie Wayne or Marvin Harrison goes down? Then Gonzalez is the most sought after free agent receiver in fantasy football. Hardly any of the guys owners are drafting in those late rounds before him have that kind of upside. And if you're in a keeper league, remember that Harrison is 35 on Saturday.

No Change

Jeremy Shockey, TE, Giants (ADP, 69): There are a lot of Tiki Barber yards laying on the field for Shockey. But he's been battling leg woes all year and limps around Giants Stadium every Sunday like Willis Reed in Game 7. Shockey was targeted 115 times last year, more than Antonio Gates. The over/under would be 135 targets if he could ever make it through a season. He doesn't miss many games. He's just very limited in too many of them.

Ronnie Brown, RB, Dolphins (ADP: 18): He's holding steady nationally, but I thought he was a value here and now have to downgrade him. New head coach Cam Cameron is seemingly conflicted in his view of Brown. Technically, Brown's fighting for the starting job with Jesse Chatman (who Cameron coached at San Diego before weight problems forced Chatman out of football for two years). Not even Chatman thinks he'll start. But Cameron says Brown is a player who is still developing and who has yet to display the home-run ability for which he was drafted. A fair, but rather cold assessment. Brown can become a real interesting guy if he slides over general disaffection with not just him but the entire struggling Dolphins offense.

Reggie Brown, WR, Eagles (ADP: 59): Other experts are getting their Ya-Yas out over Brown. But this is where he should be drafted. Don't take the bait and reach for him. If he doesn't make it to you in Round 6, grab explosive Kevin Curtis (ADP: 118) and hope he does what Donte Stallworth did in Philly last year. Brown is a glorified possession receiver, albeit in an offense that is explosive and that throws a lot (62 percent of plays in the first half last year). He is now going to be treated like a No. 1 receiver by opposing secondaries and many receivers are rendered useless when that bullseye is on their back.

Downgrade

Larry Johnson, RB, Chiefs (ADP: 3): Right after he signed his deal he predicted he would not be ready for a full workload by opening day. Plus, instead of immediately ending the Priest Holmes charade, the Chiefs said they plan for Holmes to be the "third-down and short-yardage back." I think it's still likely Holmes doesn't play a down (he hadn't yet practiced through Tuesday). But if he defies the odds, LJ can lose goal-line carries, typically reserved for the short-yardage back. Johnson is a pile-driver who converted 15 of 25 goal-line runs last year, almost as efficient as LaDainian Tomlinson (15-for-23). Note the Chiefs line looks in disarray and Herm Edwards still appears bent on starting inexperienced, mistake-prone Brodie Croyle over veteran Damon Huard, who saved his bacon in '06.

Vincent Jackson, WR, Chargers (ADP: 71): He's moved up about 10 spots the past week in the average league. Most smart guys love him. But I see a team with two stud performers who must get fed (Tomlinson and Gates) and a new head coach/offensive coordinator in Norv Turner who likes a power running game only sprinkled with big passing plays. How many times this year is Norv Turner going to try to figure out ways to get Jackson the ball? Even if the thought crosses his mind, he's going to have Tomlinson and Gates tugging at his shirtsleeve. Jackson is just happy to be playing. I don't deny the big-play ability. But he caught just 48 percent of the passes thrown to him last year, which devalues the 17.7 per reception a lot. Remember that about 25 percent of his targets last year came in the final regular season game when many starters were pulled in the third quarter.

By David Ferris

As of 8/22/07

* = check status

Following are complete fantasy football, full-season rankings to assist owners in drafts and auctions. These rankings are updated each week and based on a combined yardage/scoring system (4 points for a passing touchdown, 6 points for a rushing/receiving touchdown, one point for every 25 passing yards, one point for every 10 rushing/receiving yards).

In season, this cheat sheet becomes the Matchup Meter and ranks players based only on that week's opponent. Then, it's filed Wednesday night and updated every Saturday morning in light of injury and other news from around the NFL.

Quarterback
1. Peyton Manning, Colts
2. Carson Palmer, Bengals
3. Tom Brady, Patriots
4. Drew Brees, Saints
5. Marc Bulger, Rams
6. Vince Young, Titans
7. *Donovan McNabb, Eagles
NOTE: Passing will be fine, but no longer a scrambler.
8. Jon Kitna, Lions
9. Tony Romo, Cowboys
10. Ben Roethlisberger, Steelers
UPGRADE: Ready for heavier role in offense.
11. Matt Hasselbeck, Seahawks
12. Philip Rivers, Chargers
13. Matt Leinart, Cardinals
14. Eli Manning, Giants
15. J.P. Losman, Bills
SLEEPER: Improved significantly in 2006.
16. Brett Favre, Packers
17. Jay Cutler, Broncos
18. Jake Delhomme, Panthers
HEADS-UP: David Carr is a legitimate threat.
19. Alex Smith, Niners
20. *Jason Campbell, Redskins
21. Matt Schaub, Texans
22. Jeff Garcia, Bucs
23. Rex Grossman, Bears
NOTE: One step forward, two steps back.
24. Chad Pennnington, Jets
25. Trent Green, Dolphins
26. Steve McNair, Ravens
27. Joey Harrington, Falcons
28. Byron Leftwich, Jaguars
NOTE: Not a favorite of Jack Del Rio.
29. *Daunte Culpepper, Raiders
30. *Brady Quinn, Browns
31. Tarvaris Jackson, Vikings
32. *Brodie Croyle, Chiefs
33. David Garrard, Jaguars
34. David Carr, Panthers
35. Brian Griese, Bears
36. Kyle Boller, Ravens
37. Kellen Clemens, Jets

Running Back
1. LaDainian Tomlinson, Chargers
2. Steven Jackson, Rams
3. *Frank Gore, Niners
4. Shaun Alexander, Seahawks
5. Joseph Addai, Colts
6. Rudi Johnson, Bengals
7. Larry Johnson, Chiefs
NOTE: All those dollars can't clear holes for him.
8. Willie Parker, Steelers
9. *Travis Henry, Broncos
10. Brian Westbrook, Eagles
NOTE: Unreal talent but seldom goes 16 games.
11. Reggie Bush, Saints
12. Maurice Jones-Drew, Jaguars
13. Cedric Benson, Bears
14. Willis McGahee, Ravens
15. Edgerrin James, Cardinals
16. *Laurence Maroney, Patriots
17. *Thomas Jones, Jets
18. Marshawn Lynch, Bills
19. *Clinton Portis, Redskins
20. Ahman Green, Texans
21. Ronnie Brown, Dolphins
DOWNGRADE: Solid back but line could be problem.
22. Jamal Lewis, Browns
NOTE: Market trends down, but a steal as your third back.
23. Deuce McAllister, Saints
24. Brandon Jacobs, Giants
25. Adrian Peterson, Vikings
26. LaMont Jordan, Raiders
UPGRADE: Solid camp, and no Rhodes for a month.
27. Julius Jones, Cowboys
28. Carnell Williams, Bucs
29. Jerious Norwood, Falcons
30. Ladell Betts, Redskins
UPGRADE: Most tempting backup on the board.
31. Tatum Bell, Lions
SLEEPER: Gets chance to shine with Jones dinged up.
32. Brandon Jackson, Packers
33. DeShaun Foster, Panthers
SLEEPER: He's probably held off Williams, to this point.
34. Marion Barber, Cowboys
DOWNGRADE: Don't pony up for last year's TDs.
35. DeAngelo Williams, Panthers
36. Kevin Jones, Lions
37. Chris Brown, Titans
SLEEPER: Probably will start, line is solid.
38. Chester Taylor, Vikings
39. Fred Taylor, Jaguars
40. Leon Washington, Jets
41. Warrick Dunn, Falcons
42. Michael Turner, Chargers
43. Michael Pittman, Bucs
44. Anthony Thomas, Bills
45. Jesse Chatman, Dolphins
NOTE: Pushing Brown in Miami, apparently.
46. Reuben Droughns, Giants
47. Adrian Peterson, Bears
48. *Vernand Morency, Packers
49. Sammy Morris, Patriots
50. Brian Leonard, Rams
51. Chris Henry, Titans
52. LenDale White, Titans
53. *Mike Bell, Broncos
54. Tony Hunt, Eagles
SLEEPER: Looks good at the goal line.
55. Ron Dayne, Texans
56. Cecil Sapp, Broncos
57. Noah Herron, Packers
58. Dominic Rhodes, Raiders
HEADS-UP: Out for opening month.
59. Marcel Shipp, Cardinals
60. Jerome Harrison, Browns

Wide Receiver
1. Steve Smith, Panthers
2. Torry Holt, Rams
3. Marvin Harrison, Colts
4. Reggie Wayne, Colts
5. Chad Johnson, Bengals
6. Terrell Owens, Cowboys
UPGRADE: Quiet camp is a good camp.
7. Larry Fitzgerald, Cardinals
8. Lee Evans, Bills
UPGRADE: He's always had the goods, now Losman does too.
9. T.J. Houshmandzadeh, Bengals
10. Marques Colston, Saints
11. Roy Williams, Lions
12. Anquan Boldin, Cardinals
13. Javon Walker, Broncos
14. Andre Johnson, Texans
15. Donald Driver, Packers
16. *Plaxico Burress, Giants
17. *Randy Moss, Patriots
18. Reggie Brown, Eagles
UPGRADE: Andy Reid's system is a star maker.
19. Hines Ward, Steelers
20. Deion Branch, Seahawks
21. Joey Galloway, Bucs
NOTE: Number still there, but turns 36 in November.
22. Santana Moss, Redskins
23. Laveranues Coles, Jets
24. Chris Chambers, Dolphins
25. Calvin Johnson, Lions
NOTE: Hype is justified, but plenty of pass catchers here.
26. Braylon Edwards, Browns
27. Bernard Berrian, Bears
SLEEPER: Perhaps the best value play on the board.
28. *Darrell Jackson, Niners
29. Jerricho Cotchery, Jets
30. Ronald Curry, Raiders
31. Santonio Holmes, Steelers
SLEEPER: Everything in place for sophomore breakout.
32. Vincent Jackson, Chargers
33. D.J. Hackett, Seahawks
34. Kevin Curtis, Eagles
35. Jerry Porter, Raiders
36. *Mark Clayton, Ravens
37. Muhsin Muhammad, Bears
38. *Donte Stallworth, Patriots
39. Isaac Bruce, Rams
40. *Devery Henderson, Saints
41. Eddie Kennison, Chiefs
42. *Terry Glenn, Cowboys
43. Derrick Mason, Ravens
44. Greg Jennings, Packers
45. Drew Bennett, Rams
46. Joe Horn, Falcons
47. Brandon Jones, Titans
48. Wes Welker, Patriots
49. Michael Jenkins, Falcons
50. Bobby Wade, Vikings
51. Patrick Crayton, Cowboys
52. Amani Toomer, Giants
53. Mike Furrey, Lions
54. Craig Davis, Chargers
NOTE: Likely to start as a rookie.
55. Troy Williamson, Vikings
NOTE: Eyes are fine now; must rebuild confidence.
56. Anthony Gonzalez, Colts
57. Brandon Marshall, Broncos
58. Dennis Northcutt, Jaguars
59. Joe Jurevicius, Browns
60. Drew Carter, Panthers
61. Terrance Copper, Saints
SLEEPER: Bump him up if Henderson heals slowly.
62. Arnaz Battle, Niners
63. Bobby Engram, Seahawks
64. *Marty Booker, Dolphins
65. Ernest Wilford, Jaguars
66. Ted Ginn, Dolphins
67. James Jones, Packers
68. Matt Jones, Jaguars
69. Antwaan Randle El, Redskins
70. Bryant Johnson, Cardinals
71. Dwayne Jarrett, Panthers
72. Malcolm Floyd, Chargers

Tight End
1. Antonio Gates, Chargers
2. Tony Gonzalez, Chiefs
3. Todd Heap, Ravens
4. Chris Cooley, Redskins
UPGRADE: The best value at the position.
5. Jeremy Shockey, Giants
6. Vernon Davis, Niners
UPGRADE: Should be Smith's primary target.
7. Kellen Winslow, Browns
8. Alge Crumpler, Falcons
DOWNGRADE: Vick's absence hurts him the most.
9. Jason Witten, Cowboys
10. Ben Watson, Patriots
11. Dallas Clark, Colts
12. Heath Miller, Steelers
13. Randy McMichael, Rams
14. Eric Johnson, Saints
15. *L.J. Smith, Eagles
16. Bo Scaife, Titans
SLEEPER: Young's most trusted target.
17. Owen Daniels, Texans
18. Marcus Pollard, Seahawks
19. Alex Smith, Bucs
20. Chris Baker, Jets
21. Desmond Clark, Bears
DOWNGRADE: He'll lose targets to rookie Greg Olsen.
22. Mark Campbell, Saints

Kicker
1. Adam Vinatieri, Colts
2. Neil Rackers, Cardinals
NOTE: Has good shot to get his mojo back.
3. Nate Kaeding, Chargers
4. Shayne Graham, Bengals
5. Jeff Wilkins, Rams
6. David Akers, Eagles
7. Olindo Mare, Saints
SLEEPER: Indoors and tied to a strong offense.
8. Stephen Gostkowski, Patriots
9. Jason Elam, Broncos
10. Robbie Gould, Bears
DOWNGRADE: Dream seasons at kicker seldom repeat.
11. Josh Brown, Seahawks
12. John Kasay, Panthers
13. Matt Stover, Ravens
14. Jason Hanson, Lions
15. Josh Scobee, Jaguars
16. Mike Nugent, Jets
SLEEPER: Was automatic during 2006 stretch drive.
17. Joe Nedney, Niners
18. Rian Lindell, Bills
19. Jeff Reed, Steelers
20. Phil Dawson, Browns

Defense
1. Bears
NOTE: The clear top dog, but normally overpriced.
2. Ravens
3. Chargers
4. Patriots
5. Cowboys
6. Eagles
7. Packers
SLEEPER: Unit quietly got nasty down stretch in 2006.
8. Seahawks
9. Panthers
10. Broncos
11. Jaguars
12. Vikings
13. Steelers
14. Raiders
NOTE: If only they weren't tied to lousy offense.
15. Dolphins
16. Rams
17. Cardinals
18. Bills
19. Jets
20. Niners
21. Giants
22. Bengals

By Michael Salfino

The predicted new age of passing proficiency never materialized after a record-shattering 2004 season coinciding with strict enforcement of the illegal contact rule (the latest in the long history of rule changes benefiting the passing game).

In 2004, nine QBs threw more than 25 TD passes, four threw more than 30 and one (Peyton Manning) threw an NFL record 49. But just six QBs have tossed more than 25 scoring strikes since (Manning and Carson Palmer have done it twice, Drew Brees and Tom Brady once).

Perhaps the reason for the decline at the top is merely that more QBs of late are not playing full seasons due to injuries and younger prospects stepping into starting jobs in-season.

Let's clarify by looking at the percentage of passes that are TDs. If you stay healthy and are on a reasonably aggressive passing team, you should get 500 attempts (a little more than 31 per game). If you then connect on TDs 5 percent of the time, that gets you 25 TD passes; 6 percent gets you 30. Manning, in 2004, threw TDs on 9.9 percent of his attempts.

In 2004, 11 passers met or bettered the 5 percent threshold. In 2005, it was seven. Last year, only five (in order, they were Donovan McNabb, Manning, Tony Romo, Palmer and Michael Vick). Additionally, note total, annual NFL TD passes since 2004: 732, 644, 648.

We've clearly lost that 2004 passing mojo. Why?

Lots of QBs may have had career seasons in 2004. But we're also likely in a defensive cycle that will last as long as takes for offensive coordinators master the Cover 2 defense now in vogue everywhere.

When looking for QB sleepers, remember that top performers in yards per pass attempt (YPA) are almost always tops in TD efficiency. A top-scoring QB should have at least a 7.5 YPA. (Romo last year finished at 8.6 and is thus very underrated.)

Functional Arm Strength is my own invention, where I focus only on QB performance on passes that travel 11-to-20 yards from scrimmage. This is the only "deep" throw in today's NFL where we have a sufficient sample size for all QBs. On average, about 19 percent of all attempts are this distance.

Now let's make some QB predictions.

Buy

Donovan McNabb, Eagles: Not only had a 100-plus QB rating on 11-to-20 yard tosses, but on throws between 20 and 40 yards, too. And about 13 percent of his attempts were 20-plus yards from scrimmage, at the high end for the league. Most importantly, the Eagles last year threw a league-high 62 percent of the time in the first half.

Marc Bulger, Rams: A healthy Bulger will be more productive than Brees this year. Bulger's passing yards were third in the league. He threw 56 percent of the time in the first half of games and most inside the opposing 10 (57 percent).

Hold

Jason Campbell, Redskins: Offensive coordinator Al Saunders called run 54 percent of the time in the first half last year, and the two-headed backfield makes 500 rushing attempts likely. But I like 10 TD passes in 207 attempts last year (just about 5 percent).

Sell

Alex Smith, Niners: Took a wrong turn right into Palookaville in the second half of 2006, with a QB rating down around 70 (it was 89 in September). The Niners will continue to run a lot in the first half (5.4 yards per carry in the first and second quarter).

Brett Favre, Packers: He's an ugly player now. His YPA is an unacceptable 6.3 and he generates first downs on less than 30 percent of total passing attempts, which slots him alongside of bums like Andrew Walter, Charlie Frye and Joey Harrington.

Byron Leftwich, Jaguars: Only David Carr and Mark Brunell generated a lower percentage of air yards than Leftwich's 44.7 (the rest of Leftwich's yards were gained by receivers after the catch). Note that those other guys now carry clipboards. David Garrard is far more accurate (12 percent poor throws -- fifth-best overall -- compared to 18 percent for Leftwich).

Steve McNair, Ravens: Once the best intermediate thrower in the game. Now, he's one of the worst, with a QB rating of 59 on 11-to-20 yard throws. McNair has clearly lost his fastball.

If you read every single news item from the NFL this month, you'd never have time to eat, sleep, and shower. Here's a condensed version for you, all the news fantasy owners need to know three weeks into August (and with two preseason game in the books).

By David Ferris

Travis Henry left Saturday's game with a knee injury; a subsequent MRI revealed no major damage. Don't look for him to play much if at all the remainder of the preseason. With Mike Bell (hip) also hurt and down a couple of weeks, Cecil Sapp might be worth a late-round flyer in deeper groups. But at the end of the day, I'm not terribly worried about Henry, and would still consider him in the late first round or anywhere in the second round.

Donovan McNabb passed his first test with flying colors, looking very sharp (6-for-9, 138 yards, one touchdown) in his first start since tearing his ACL in November. McNabb played with a brace on the knee and will likely keep that on in the regular season.

Daunte Culpepper outplayed Andrew Walter and Josh McCown in the second preseason game and probably has a leg up on being Oakland's starting quarterback to begin the year. Meanwhile, the Raiders haven't made any progress with top pick JaMarcus Russell, and even if things were to radically change on that front before the end of the month, he's too far behind to be starting anytime soon.

Friday was a good day for Titans RB Chris Brown at New England; he ran well with the backups (10 carries, 67 yards), while Chris Henry did nothing with the first team (8-15) and LenDale White (knee/ankle) didn't play. Brown's resume doesn't inspire any long-term confidence, but he'll probably break camp as the starter, giving him some depth value in larger leagues.

Rookie RB Brandon Jackson probably has a starting spot wrapped up with the Packers. He's been serviceable in both preseason games (13-54, touchdown in Game 2), while Vernand Morency (knee) isn't ready to play yet. Another Packer rookie to keep in mind is WR James Jones, who's scored a couple of touchdowns and could become the team's No. 3 receiver. The Packers cleared the runaway a bit when they cut scuffling veteran Robert Ferguson last week.

While we never want to get carried away with anything we see in August, the early trends with Ronnie Brown should concern anyone from a fantasy perspective. Brown has been getting work on kickoff returns – it's puzzling why the Dolphins would want to risk their featured tailback in that role – and it's no guarantee that Brown will be used exclusively as the team's short-yardage back. The Miami offensive line is also a major concern for Brown, and the Dolphins are clearly the worst team in the AFC East on paper.

Washington QB Jason Campbell left Saturday's game with a knee injury, but it's only considered a bruise and he won't miss any significant time. While Campbell is a long-shot fantasy option at best, the entire Washington offense would take a hit if the club were forced to start Todd Collins or Mark Brunell.

A few of your opponents are probably hot for Detroit WR Calvin Johnson, which is fine. Let them suck all of the value out of the slot and take him in the first third of your draft. While Johnson is the most talented WR prospect I've seen in a decade, he's also got plenty of competition for the ball in Detroit: Roy Williams is already a Pro Bowl talent, Mike Furrey caught 98 passes last year, and Shaun McDonald knows the Mike Martz offense well from his time in St. Louis (McDonald also has two scores this month). Is there a chance Johnson will make a Randy Moss-like explosion right out of the box? Sure, but it's not as likely as many seem to believe. Johnson will be a superstar in the next year or two, but we're not paying superstar prices for him yet.

TE Bo Scaife might wind up being the best pass-catcher in Tennessee this year. He's caught seven passes in two games and he knows Vince Young well from their days together at Texas. TE Ben Troupe is also around, but he's been dealing with a foot injury and hasn't fully worked in two weeks.

Raiders RB LaMont Jordan looked pretty good in the San Francisco game (8-67 rushing, one touchdown), and he doesn't have to worry about Dominic Rhodes (suspension) for the opening month. You could do a lot worse than Jordan as your third or fourth back.

Lovie Smith is fully endorsing Cedric Benson as his workhorse back, hinting that we'll see less substitution at the position than last year. If Benson can stay healthy he's got a very plausible path to stardom: Chicago's offensive line is very good, and the team is still capable of dominating in the NFC North.

QB Brady Quinn gets high marks for his pro opener, completing 13-of-20 passes for 155 yards and a couple of touchdowns. He's not going to be Cleveland's starter right away, but there's a good chance he'll be the No. 1 guy by the middle of the year.

RB Tony Hunt punched in a couple of short touchdowns Friday and looks set as Philadelphia's designated runner from in close. This won't have too much of an effect on Brian Westbrook – he's never been used much at the goal line – but Hunt's promotion makes Correll Buckhalter just about undraftable.