Projo Fantasy Sports Blog

By David Ferris

If you read every single news item from the NFL this month, you'd never have time to eat, sleep and shower. Here's a condensed version for you, all the news fantasy owners need to know midway through August (and with one preseason game in the books).

Clinton Portis had his knee examined by Dr. James Andrews recently, which is seldom good news for fantasy players. Even if Portis is healthy come the start of the regular season, Ladell Betts is a fantastic spec pick once all of the starting backs are off the board – he fits the offense well, Washington has a very strong offensive line, and we saw Betts become a dominant runner when given the starting job at the end of last year. I'm surprised the Redskins didn't try harder to move Portis in the offseason.

Thomas Jones has his calf injury and the Eric Mangini code of secrecy around it – week-to-week is the latest we've heard there. I'm more optimistic about Jones for the early part of the year than Portis, but nonetheless Leon Washington should be one of the top backup RBs selected in any draft (probably 10-15 picks after Betts goes).

Vernon Davis has been very impressive in San Francisco's camp and barring injury, the second-year tight end should easily lead the team in receptions. Alex Smith has one of the weaker arms in the league, so any big, reliable target in the middle of the field, between the hashes, is someone he'll use a lot.

Don't be too concerned about Larry Johnson's holdout, but the condition of the Kansas City offensive line and offense in general, now that's something to be worried about. In our eyes, Johnson should go in the middle of your first round, at the earliest.

Rudi Johnson already had a very safe floor in Cincinnati – he's tied to a great offense and a solid line, and he's the automatic option from in close – and his security became even greater when Kenny Irons suffered a knee injury last week. Irons, an intriguing rookie whom the Bengals planned to use liberally, is done for the season.

Be careful with Carolina's backfield – DeAngelo Williams is clearly the most talented guy but he's got a tender ankle, DeShaun Foster played well in the first preseason game (five carries, 62 yards), and it's possible the team will use a bigger back (Eric Shelton, perhaps) to steal the valuable goal-line carries. The hope here was that one back, probably Williams, would take control of the situation in camp, but that's yet to happen.

Brandon Jackson finished the first preseason game with ordinary numbers (16 carries, 57 yards), and his best carries came in the second half against Pittsburgh scrubs. He's still getting important reps while Vernand Morency (knee) gets healthy, but it's not like Jackson is blowing anyone away, either. In short, it's fine to take Jackson if the room makes him a modest value, but we're not ready to aggressively target him, per se. The Packers have already mentioned a possible committee approach in the backfield.

Rookie Chris Henry was the only Tennessee back who showed anything much in the preseason opener, albeit he got into the game late. With Chris Brown forever an injury risk (and not someone the Titans are enamored with), and LenDale White starting to look like a sham passed off by his talented USC teammates, Henry is the only Tennessee back you need to take seriously on draft day (and you can probably land him very late).

None of the name receivers on the Jaguars do much for us, but the guy to especially avoid is Reggie Williams, who's currently No. 5 on the depth chart. Dennis Northcutt (who would be a slot receiver for most teams) is currently running with the starters along with Ernest Wilford; Matt Jones, who looked so good at the end of 2006, is on the second unit for now.

Trent Green was a mess in his first start for the Dolphins, though the offensive line more than anything deserves the blame. Bad news for Ronnie Brown owners: those are the same guys who need to open holes for him, and run blocking in general is a harder skill to master than pass blocking.

Minnesota isn't going to be a big passing team, but everyone has to throw the ball eventually, so keep an eye on starters Bobby Wade and Troy Williamson. Both looked passable in the opener.

New England's holding so many key guys out of practice, it's hard to know where their offense is right now. We're hoping Bill Belichick lets the big kids out of school for the third preseason game, but that's far from a guarantee. Laurence Maroney (shoulder) isn't taking contact at practice, and Randy Moss and Donte Stallworth – two players who have been injury prone in recent years – sat out the first preseason game.

L.J. Smith is dealing with a groin injury, bad news given that he had hernia surgery a few months ago. He's no sure thing for opening day.

St. Louis rookie RB Brian Leonard was one of the stars of the opening week, rushing nine times for 36 yards and a touchdown, and also catching five passes for 30 yards. The Rams love to throw to their backs and they're looking to ease Steven Jackson's workload just a little bit, all which makes Leonard a worthwhile target as one of your final picks.

Carnell Williams probably gets a clearer path to goal-line work with Mike Alstott done for the season, but Michael Pittman will also see regular time.

Greg Olsen caught two passes on Chicago's first drive of the preseason, which means he'll be cutting into Desmond Clark's production sooner, rather than later. The learning curve of the NFL might keep Olsen from being a dynamic tight end right away, but he's a can't-miss kid for keeper-league players.

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By Michael Salfino

Average Draft Position (ADP) data is provided this week by our friends at MockDraftCentral.com, which allows users to participate in three live mock drafts per month for free. That qualifies as a preseason workout for us fantasy couch potatoes. Again, "upgrade" here means I think the player is a bargain. "Downgrade" means he's likely overpriced.

Upgrade

Chris Henry, RB, Titans (ADP: 137th overall; highest: 88th): A size/speed combine freak who never started in college or HIGH SCHOOL, Henry was drafted in the second round to start, not back up. He's third-string at the moment, but was the most impressive Titans back by far in preseason Week 1. LenDale White so unimpressed management last year that they spent the spring dancing with the Chargers in a failed attempt to trade for Michael Turner. Chris Brown is 27 and was brought back by the Titans long after no one showed serious interest in free agency. When a RB situation is as unsettled as this, the wisest course is to buy cheap and hope for the best.

Leon Washington, RB, Jets (ADP: 124th, Highest: 89th): If Thomas Jones (calf) stays healthy, Washington will be useful only in the deepest league as a change-of-pace, third-down back. But Jones is 29 and would be Top 50 all-time in carries if he makes it through the whole season. It's certainly no given that this journeyman will end 2007 as one of the 50 most durable backs in league history. Washington could be the Maurice Jones-Drew of 2007.

Ben Roethlisberger, QB, Steelers (ADP: 118th, Highest: 82nd): This isn't the Steelers of 2005 on either side of the ball. Last year, they were middle of the pack in percentage of pass plays called overall and in the first-half of games. The Steelers defense is vulnerable to the pass (middle of the pack in YPA and points per attempt and now without Cowher). Roethlisberger was fighting the cobwebs last year after two massive knock-out blows (including the motorcycle accident). Throw out the first three games after the crash (and appendectomy) and first two after the KO versus the Falcons and Roethlisberger loses 14 of his picks. In the other games, he maintained a 23-TD pace (plus two rushing TDs). I think you'll be able to win with him as a starter most weeks and, at this price, there's no risk in finding out.

Michael Turner, RB, Chargers (ADP: 104th, Highest: 72nd) You let Turner slide this far and there's a guarantee that the Tomlinson owner gets him. And that Tomlinson owner needs to sweat about something. But this is an offensive move, too. The Turner owner is one Tomlinson snap, crackle or pop away from having a championship-caliber back. Turner can do what Larry Johnson did in 2005 once Priest Holmes got hurt. Remember, Tomlinson has more mileage than any RB his age in NFL history.

Vince Young, QB, Titans (ADP: 91st, Highest 53rd): This is an attractive price for a guy who should rush for eight TDs and throw for at least 16 more. With rushing TDs counting for twice as much as passing in many leagues, that's like a 32-TD pass season. And that beats almost all of the competition every year. A healthy, developing Young could rush for 10 and throw for 20. Then, you're talking "championship."

Antonio Gates, TE, Chargers (ADP: 32nd, Highest 23rd): In leagues that must play a tight end, Gates is gold. Norv Turner wants to spread him out as a wide receiver more. Gates has proven unstoppable when lined up outside hashmarks. Last year, Gates averaged 15.9 on 36 catches when standing upright at the snap. I understand that Jeremy Shockey was targeted more last year than Gates (115 passes to 113). But Tomlinson is going to regress to the mean this year, which leaves a lot more important action to Gates. Last year, near the goal line, he was targeted just three times, or one less than Bears backup TE John Gilmore. And Gates still had nine TD catches.

Hold

Maurice Jones-Drew, RB, Jaguars (ADP: 18th, highest: 11th): This seems like a great price for a guy coming off a 16-TD season (kickoff returns count, too). But expect Fred Taylor to get half the carries as long as he stays healthy. A healthy Taylor is a good bet to be effective, too. Perhaps Jones-Drew's lack of height (5-foot-6) is still being held against him. He was 25th among running backs in goal-line plays, but his massive thighs and low center of gravity enabled him to generate six TDs in his 10 attempts. That conversion rate is way better than most backs and just a notch below LaDainian Tomlinson. Fred Taylor was 1-for-6 on the goal line and is always terrible in short yardage. Jones-Drew looks to be the very odd combination of change-of-pace, third-down and short-yardage/goal-line back.

Cedric Benson, RB, Bears (ADP: 24th, highest: 14th): Benson is being penalized for Rex Grossman's struggles in the second half and, especially, in the Super Bowl. But he's on a winning, defensive-oriented team in a weak division that often plays in rough weather. Running back production correlates significantly with winning. The carries will be there now with Thomas Jones toiling for the Jets. The safeties can't be too aggressive with Grossman seventh in the NFL last year at 12.2 yards per completion.

Downgrade

Ahman Green, RB, Texans (ADP: 43rd, Highest: 26th): That might not seem too bad in running back-mad leagues. But it's ahead of Buffalo's Marshawn Lynch, which is crazy. You want running backs sporting those showroom tires instead of retreads like Green's. Ahman's owners have to hope that he somehow stays healthy and avoids an age-based decline while unproven QB Matt Schaub instantly thrives in a new system. Other backs I'd gladly take over Green: Jerious Norwood (ADP: 55th), D'Angelo Williams (56th) and Adrian Peterson (60th).

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By Michael Salfino

Similar to how they line up after breaking the huddle, running backs are just behind quarterbacks on the NFL glamour scale and have brought home the bling in the form of the MVP Trophy two years running. LaDainian Tomlinson also followed Shaun Alexander in setting the NFL TD record, the third and fourth time a back has set it this decade.

Great TD seasons are always linked with an overall offense that generates a large number of red-zone possessions. Coaches throw away the goal-line playbook once the record is in sight and continue that trend the following year, as every TD champ this decade has followed up with a second league-leading year. The workload appears to take a toll in year three -- two of the three (Alexander and Marshall Faulk) badly declined while the other, Priest Holmes, missed half a season with injury.

Tomlinson's 2,448 touches since entering the NFL in 2001 are 25th most in NFL history. And no one has had 390-plus touches like LDT for six straight years. That's why the Chargers refused to trade free-agent-to-be Michael Turner (6.0 career rushing average).

The team with the most red zone possessions in 2007 will likely have feature the TD king. The Chargers led the NFL with 62 last year, but the Colts tied them and the Patriots were just two behind. The Cowboys made a late charge behind Tony Romo, finishing with 58. The Steelers were fifth with 56.

Expect breakout TD seasons from second-year RBs Laurence Maroney (Pats) and Joseph Addai (Colts), now extricated from committee situations. While Tom Brady and Peyton Manning throw lots of TDs, both backs have good hands. And since these QBs generate TDs on nearly two-thirds of red-zone possessions, there will be plenty of love to go around.

With the likelihood of a committee in Dallas (featuring Julius Jones and Marion Barber), a sleeper pick for TD supremacy is Willie Parker in Pittsburgh.

New Orleans fluky success generating scores on long passes kept their red zone possessions down last year. But Drew Brees moves the chains (third-best at converting third downs). Alas, Reggie Bush can't turn into Faulk Jr. while losing most carries near the goal line to Deuce McAllister (three times the goal-line carries as Bush).

Let's use these stats to make some running back predictions for 2007.

Buy

Willie Parker, Steelers: New offensive coordinator Bruce Arians promises Parker all the important touches. He was fourth in goal-line plays last year (22). Ben Roethlisberger should rebound from his concussion-related 2006 struggles.

Steven Jackson, Rams: Sixth in goal-line plays (20). The Rams will be top five in red-zone possessions if Marc Bulger plays to form on third downs (just 19th best in '06) in his second year in Scott Linehan's system.

Laurence Maroney, Patriots: Just to make the above recommendation official. A healthy Maroney should score 15-to-25 TDs, depending on how the goal-line plays break.

Joseph Addai, Colts: Peyton Manning will call Addai's number near paydirt more than many think: 50 runs, 39 passes inside the opposing 10 last year.

Willis McGahee, Ravens: Steve McNair could fall off the cliff. But he was top 10 in third-down efficiency. The Ravens defense generates great field position that results in more offensive red-zone possessions.

Marshawn Lynch, Bills: The committee talks can't be serious. Lynch (12th overall pick) has a very high ceiling as a do-it-all back. He needs young QB J.P. Losman to continue his fine late-2006 play.

Hold

Larry Johnson, Chiefs: The Chiefs first must get LJ back into camp and then put sophomore Brodie Croyle on the backburners. Damon Huard was very capable last year, though he faltered on third down (76 QB rating).

Frank Gore, Niners: Alex Smith did not progress (pathetic 63.8 QB rating in December). But Smith was adequate on third down, which provides faint hope for the red-zone possessions needed for a Gore TD breakout.

Sell

Clinton Portis, Redskins: Backup Ladell Betts (4.7 per carry) was much better last year and Portis (4.1 per carry) has knee and chronic shoulder problems.

Travis Henry, Broncos: One ill-timed fumble or shiny moment from a backup can suddenly change Mike Shanahan's RB depth chart. Henry is old for a RB (28) and seemed washed up two years ago.

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