Projo Fantasy Sports Blog

By Michael Salfino

Click below to see complete fantasy football, full-season rankings to assist owners in drafts and auctions. These rankings are updated each week and based on a combined yardage/scoring system (4 points for a passing touchdown, 6 points for a rushing/receiving touchdown, one point for every 25 passing yards, one point for every 10 rushing/receiving yards).

In season, this cheat sheet becomes the Matchup Meter and ranks players based only on that week's opponent. Then, it's filed Wednesday night and updated every Saturday morning in light of injury and other news from around the NFL.

>> Continue reading: Latest position-by-position player rankings

By Michael Salfino

Running backs rule in fantasy football. Let's look at the weakest starters and see if we can find any value in them or in their backups. Again, average draft position (ADP) data courtesy of our friends at MockDraftCentral.com.

Upgrade

Cadillac Williams, Bucs (ADP: 42): Whenever a 25-year-old, healthy back who is guaranteed to start slides from the first round the year before to the fourth round presently, he's a solid value. Michael Pittman is around to steal some catches and probably the goal-line carries. But he's not as obvious a choice there as Mike Alstott was (at least to the unimaginative Jon Gruden). Maybe Jeff Garcia plays close to his 2006 level and the new offensive line gels.

Marshawn Lynch, Bills (ADP: 45): He's got the stench of a committee guy, but I still like the situation here. Anthony Thomas is 30 and if the Bills liked him as much as they're letting on, why would they draft Lynch? I'll bet Lynch gets 20 to 25 carries, not the 15 to 20 being projected. But be prepared for an anxious first month. Lynch is also bigger than Thomas, so I can't see him losing goal-line carries.

Julius Jones, Cowboys (ADP: 60): He's the starter, but almost every league drafts Marion Barber (ADP: 34) first. Jones has even gotten goal-line action this summer. Barber also was playing fullback last week and that makes me more bullish on Jones, who is, by far, the Cowboys most explosive runner.

DeShaun Foster, Panthers (ADP: 92): The offensive line has struggled this summer. Everyone but John Fox wants to turn the page on Foster and see what DeAngelo Williams can do. Williams was a great, multidimensional runner in college and is being aggressively drafted despite his backup status. If I had to have one of them, I'd wait the three or four rounds and tab Foster. We tend to forget the obvious fact that the path to playing time is easiest for the opening-day starter.

Jamal Lewis, Browns (ADP: 47): He is being treated like a leper by fantasy owners. But he's just turned 28 and says he's never felt better off the offseason ankle surgery. There's no serious competition for carries. The offensive line has to get better. Lewis can be a rare value play at running back. Just make sure he's your third option.

Vernand Morency, Packers (ADP: 105): I like that second-round pick Brandon Jackson has struggled this summer. But his ADP of 63 isn't enough of a discount. Note that Jackson never had more than 91 carries at Nebraska. It looks likely that Morency will get a least as much action and will probably start when healthy, so why pay a four-round premium for Jackson? If Jackson slides into the seventh or eighth round of any deep draft, he's an attractive value.

Fred Taylor, Jaguars (ADP: 61): Maurice Jones-Drew is being drafted in the second round almost everywhere, yet Taylor is starting and talking about a 1,500-rushing-yard season to get him to 11,000 for his career. Remember, he rushed for 1,146 last year on 5.0 per carry.

LaMont Jordan, Raiders (ADP: 74): Dominic Rhodes is suspended for four weeks. Rookie Michael Bush likely will be on injured reserve the entire year. So Jordan has no one to challenge him. The offense should be some semblance of professional relative to last year, with seemingly resurgent Daunte Culpepper operating in head coach Lane Kiffen's USC-styled offense (without the talent, of course).

No Change

Ronnie Brown, Dolphins (ADP: 19): I think he's going to drop more. I'd love him as a third-rounder, where it pays to speculate that he can be LaDainian Tomlinson-light in Cam Cameron's offense (imported from San Diego, where Cameron served as coordinator). Be aware that Cameron says Jesse Chatman is vying with Brown for the starting job. But Chatman was out of football for two years.

Warrick Dunn, Falcons (ADP: 103): Came out of his first preseason game with an apparent foot injury. He's in for a shock without Michael Vick around to keep those defensive ends staying wide to protect against boot action. The running lanes will shrink and the 32-year-old Dunn is unlikely to be able to find the tight spaces. Backup Jerious Norwood might be the league's most explosive runner.

Ahman Green, Texans (ADP: 43): The same player as James and two rounds cheaper. I generally hate 30-year-old RBs. But I'll draft anyone if the price is right, as it probably will be for Green. Remember, his offensive coordinator, ex-Packers coach Mike Sherman, loves him. His primary competition for carries is Ron Dayne. 'Nuff said.

LenDale White, Titans (ADP: 99): I'm listing him as a starter because he's being drafted higher, but Jeff Fisher has announced the dreaded committee to start the year. White should be the short-yardage guy, but QB Vince Young is probably the Titans best runner on the goal line. When you have a situation like this, you normally want to draft the second guy taken. But this has the makings of a true committee. So, I'd take a very late flyer on Chris Henry (ADP: 133) and hold on to him in the hopes that the Titans turn the page in December and give him an early 2008 tryout as a full-time guy.

Downgrade

Edgerrin James, Cardinals (ADP: 20): Head coach Ken Whisenhunt is backtracking from emphasizing the power running game after seeing James' decaying game this summer. Marcel Shipp seems set to get the goal-line carries. J.J. Arrington is as post-hype as you get, but has had a good camp and is worth a late-round pocket pick in deep leagues.

Clinton Portis, Redskins (ADP: 33): His knee was finally healthy enough for him to make it through a practice this week. But the missed action provides a perfect excuse for the coaching staff to sprinkle in a heavy dose of Ladell Betts (ADP: 76), who was the more effective runner by quite a wide margin in 2006. Last year, even in the eight games Portis was healthy, he had 20-plus carries just twice. Betts is also the better goal-line runner.

Chester Taylor, Vikings (ADP: 54): Adrian Peterson (ADP: 49) has done everything but wear a red cape this summer. Yet Taylor is still the starter. Peterson just oozes ability and should force his way into the vast majority of carries by Halloween. The offensive line and the defense seem conducive to a solid running game. But QB Tavaris Jackson is learning on the job and should be expected to struggle for stretches.

By Michael Salfino

These were supposed to be boom times for NFL pass catchers. At least that's what we thought in 2004, when 11 receivers had double-digit TD catches (including TE Antonio Gates).

But defensive coordinators are crafty. The side of the ball that's getting its brains beat out each week has great incentive to change. And secondaries have effectively responded. In 2005, eight receivers had double-digit TDs. Last year, just five: Cowboy Terrell Owens, Colt Marvin Harrison, Ram Torry Holt, Giant Plaxico Burress and Seahawk Darrell Jackson (now with the Niners).

Harrison, the only receiver to crack double digits all three years, is now 35 years old. Charger TE Antonio Gates is the only other man to do it back-to-back seasons of late (in '04 and '05 before falling back to nine last year).

We can confidently predict 10 or more TDs for Harrison and maybe Gates. But recent history suggests it's very unlikely that any of the other double-digit scorers of 2006 will repeat the feat in 2007.

Looking more deeply, however, Holt has gone 10, 9 and 10 in TD catches the last three years. Owens registered 14, 6 and 13, with that middle year marred by a lengthy suspension.

The obvious thing to look for when projecting top WRs is a quality QB. Ideally, the guy is also sure to be his team's primary receiver. Catch totals tell us a lot. But also looking at the number of times each team threw to a receiver ("targets"), regardless of the result, can uncover hidden value.

There were just nine receivers with more than 140 targets last year: Holt, Donald Driver (Packers), Andre Johnson (Texans), Chad Johnson (Bengals), Anquan Boldin (Cardinals), Chris Chambers (Dolphins), Laveranues Coles (Jets), Roy Williams (Lions) and Owens.

Of those, only Johnson and Coles caught more than 60 percent of targets. The best completion percentage for any receiver with more than 100 targets was T.J. Houshmandzadeh (Bengals) at 71.1 percent. Harrison and Mike Furrey (Lions) were the only other 100-plus target wideouts who caught more than 65 percent of their targets.

Just five tight ends had more than 100 targets: Jeremy Shockey (Giants), Gates, Todd Heap (Ravens), Kellen Winslow Jr. (Browns) and Tony Gonzalez (Chiefs). Winslow caught 74 percent of them, but for just 10 yards a pop. Gonzalez was most efficient -- 12.4 yards per catch with a 71-percent success rate on targets.

Of course, getting targets near the goal line gets you the TD glory. Just seven wideouts had 20 or more red-zone targets last year: Holt (30), Driver, Reggie Wayne (Colts), Chambers, Houshmandzadeh, Owens and Jerricho Cotchery (Jets).

The only TE with even 20 red zone targets was Gates, who caught 11 of those 21 passes, six for TDs.

Now let's use these stats to make some receiver recommendations for 2007.

Buy

Jerricho Cotchery, WR, Jets: If Chad Pennington can't make the necessary throws, Kellen Clemens look ready to step in. Either way, Cotchery will get extensive action and is a better red-zone weapon than Coles.

Lee Evans, WR, Bills: Definitely the league's most underrated receiver. He's one of those unique talents who doesn't need a good QB. But J.P. Losman really emerged in the second half of 2006.

Plaxico Burress, WR, Giants: The alpha male in the Giants passing game. Last year, he scored TDs on six of seven red-zone catches, the best percentage in football.

Hold

Calvin Johnson, WR, Lions: Experts wisely advise avoiding rookie receivers. But the freakishly talented Johnson is the exception to the rule. Unfortunately, Williams and Furrey provide too much competition for Johnson to pop like Randy Moss in 1998.

Sell

Dallas Clark, TE, Colts: His 52-percent success rate on targets was pretty terrible considering Peyton Manning was his QB. Indy will run more three-WR sets with explosive rookie Anthony Gonzalez manning the slot.

Darrell Jackson, WR, Niners: He's battled knee and toe injuries since 2005 and the Seahawks basically gave him away off a 10-TD season. They're either really dumb or know something.

Marques Colston, WR, Saints: Took the league by storm in 2006. Now, he's got the bull's-eye on his back. Always expect receivers to struggle in their first year as a true No. 1 receiver.

By David Ferris

If you read every single news item from the NFL this month, you'd never have time to eat, sleep, and shower. Here's a condensed version for you, all the news fantasy owners need to know four weeks into August (and with three preseason game in the books).

Damon Huard is a journeyman and an ordinary quarterback, but his appointment to the starting spot in Kansas City is good news for all the skill players on this offense, especially Larry Johnson. Second-year QB Brodie Croyle simply isn't ready to play at this level yet, something the KC coaches were wise to accept.

To anyone who overreacted to Vince Young's meltdown in New England, you can come in off the ledge now. Young threw for two scores and ran for a third in one half of play at Buffalo, and more importantly, he completed 13-of-19 throws. He'll have his share of messy passing games as the year goes along, but the production from his legs can't be ignored. As for the receivers in this team's offense, note that Young seems to look for his old college buddy, TE Bo Scaife, more than anyone else.

Travis Henry has no job-security concerns in Denver, but Cecil Sapp's solid performance against Cleveland (11 carries, 54 yards) might have him pushing Mike Bell for the backup position.

The Lions aren't worried about Jon Kitna's back spasms, but the situation in the backfield is enough to cue up "Panic in Detroit." Kevin Jones (foot) won't be ready for the start of the season, and Tatum Bell left Saturday's game in the first half with a shin injury (believed to be minor). T.J. Duckett and Brian Calhoun shouldn't be regular backs for a good offense, but by default Mike Martz might have to incorporate these guys into his game plan.

Top-shelf QBs Peyton Manning, Tom Brady and Drew Brees all looked letter-perfect in Week 3 and probably don't need another snap this summer. Tony Dungy was so content with what the passing game did in the first half against Detroit, he decided to pull Manning a quarter ahead of schedule (the original plan had Manning going three quarters).

You may not know much about WR Jacoby Jones yet, but you will soon enough. He played his college ball at Lane, a tiny school in Tennessee, but attracted enough attention for Houston to take him in the third round of April's draft. This month he's been doing all he can to blow his cover, running two punts back for touchdowns and scoring a third time on a reception. Jones will be the team's No. 2 or No. 3 wideout right out of the box, and he could make a Devin Hester-like impact on returns. Most of your opponents won't know who he is, so wait until the last two rounds to make a selection.

PK Neil Rackers went far too early in drafts last summer, as everyone overpaid for his 2005 stats. An ordinary season followed, and now Rackers comes at a reasonably cost again, so perhaps it's time to jump back on board. He's yet to miss a kick in the preseason, including a couple of bombs (50, 59 yards), and don't forget the kicker-friendly dome he's playing in half of the time. You should never be the first owner in your league to take a kicker, of course, but you can still be patient at this position and have a good shot to land Rackers.

RB Michael Turner has a high-ankle sprain and might not be ready to play until October. This might keep LaDainian Tomlinson on the field a little longer than usual even in blowout games, and it also means Darren Sproles could be incorporated more into the offense.

Anyone who tries to pigeonhole Bernard Berrian as merely a deep threat doesn't know what they're talking about. Berrian's more technically sound on intermediate and shorter routes than he's given credit for, and he's got a strong rapport built up with QB Rex Grossman (they've hooked up on a pair of scores this month). Berrian is capable of producing like a Top 15-20 receiver, without the sticker price to match.

While your opponents are overzealously reaching for Eagles WR Reggie Brown in the first third of the draft, why not wait and go for the value with WR Kevin Curtis? The savvy free-agent pickup has quickly grasped Andy Reid's offense, and Curtis probably has 40 percent chance to be this team's most productive receiver.

Don't be surprised if the Cowboys kick Martin Gramatica to the curb; he missed an extra point in the last preseason game, and also came down with a strained hamstring. Rookie Nick Folk stands to take the job if Gramatica can't, and the Dallas offense is capable of supporting a Top 10 fantasy kicker.

Someone has to catch the ball when Minnesota throws it this year, and it looks like WR Bobby Wade is going to be the first option. Wade had five catches for 85 yards against Seattle, and he also threw a touchdown on a gadget play (it makes no sense for teams to use these trick plays in the preseason, of course, but that's beside the point). Wade is completely off the radar in most leagues, and makes a nice late-round selection.

Laurence Maroney looked solid enough in his debut Friday at Carolina (15 carries, 58 yards), but note that Sammy Morris took some of the short-yardage work away.

Daunte Culpepper, believe it or not, has actually looked solid in Oakland's preseason games, and it looks all but definite he'll begin the year as the team's starter. Some stability at the position has a trickle-down effect on the rest of the skill players here, so give a mild nudge forward to LaMont Jordan, Ronald Curry (who scored last week) and Jerry Porter.

While he got plenty of help from the leaky San Diego secondary, Matt Leinart looked very sharp in his extended action Saturday. It remains to be seen what his upside will be in Ken Whisenhunt's offense, but I can't imagine Leinart having a bad year. And don't overlook No. 3 WR Bryant Johnson, who's turned into one of the better deep threats in the league.

WR Santonio Holmes looks ready for a major step forward in his second season, not that his rookie year was a washout by any means (49 catches, 824 yards). He's made at least one big play in every preseason game this summer.

By Stu Rosenberg
McClatchy Newspapers

MODESTO, Calif. - Running backs are the way to go early in your fantasy football draft
With another NFL season speeding toward us, it's time to get serious about Fantasy Football.

For my own preparation, I invested in 10 magazines too many, destroyed two computer mice while clicking on too many Web sites to count and inhaled more cups of coffee than any all-night finals cram session I ever pulled during my Fresno State experience.

The result: The creation of a 12-team, 16-round mock draft - the first 13 picks of which I'll share with you here (check out the entire mock draft at modbee.com) and the reasons behind them.

This isn't intended to be the holy draft template. It's merely another point of view that could help you in preparing for your draft.

1. RB LaDainian Tomlinson, Chargers - Tomlinson, the undisputed fantasy heavyweight champion, will be the first pick in every draft that doesn't include relatives of Steven Jackson or Larry Johnson.

Tomlinson set the bar ridiculously high in 2006 when he scored an NFL-record 31 touchdowns and displayed rare triple-threat ability by rushing for 1,815 yards, catching 56 passes for 508 yards and throwing for two scores.

One might expect a decline, but LT's quest for a Super Bowl ring could drive him to match or even surpass those numbers.

2. RB Steven Jackson, Rams - Jackson, whose 2,334 yards from scrimmage (1,528 rushing and 806 receiving) led the NFL last season, says he wants to reach 2,500 yards this season. I wouldn't bet against him, nor would I bet against him topping last season's 16 TDs.

3. RB Larry Johnson, Chiefs - There were more sightings of Elvis than Johnson until Kansas City's All-Pro running back ended his summer-long holdout Tuesday by signing a six-year, $45 million deal.

Phew. Glad that's over with.

It's once again safe to select LJ (1,789 yards and 19 TDs in '06) among the top three picks.

4. RB Shaun Alexander, Seahawks - Alexander was the toast of the NFL two years ago, when he rushed for 1,880 yards and scored a then-record 28 TDs. A broken left foot cost him six games last season, but with his foot healed and the Madden Curse lifted (good luck, Vince Young), the former MVP is ready to run wild again.

5. RB Joseph Addai, Colts - Too high you say? Think again. Addai can run (1,081 yards and seven TDs in 226 attempts), he can catch (40 receptions for 325 yards), and he's Indy's featured back now that Dominic Rhodes, with whom he split time as a rookie, has moved to Oakland.

Add another 100 or so carries at 4.8 yards a pop and another 30 to 40 receptions and Addai's stats become Tomlinson-esque.

6. QB Peyton Manning, Colts - A Super Bowl ring with an MVP award attached to it, lucrative endorsement deals and a memorable host spot on "Saturday Night Live." It's good to be Peyton Manning.

And it's good to have the future Hall of Famer on your side. As certain as death and taxes, draft Manning and say hello to 4,200 yards and 35 TDs.

7. RB Frank Gore, 49ers - A broken hand has made Gore a preseason spectator, which isn't a bad thing because it will keep the reigning NFC rushing champion's legs fresh for when the games count for real.

Gore set a franchise record by rushing for 1,695 yards and caught 61 passes for another 485 yards in '06. If San Francisco's offense continues to improve, Gore will get his yards and his touchdown total could jump from nine to 19.

8. RB Willie Parker, Steelers - Parker (1,494 yards rushing, 16 TDs) was the only thing that went right in the Steelers' fall from Super Bowl champion to playoff outsider last season. No reason not to expect those type of numbers again.

9. RB Reggie Bush, Saints - The former USC star posted modest numbers as a rookie last season with New Orleans, but we haven't see anything yet. He might not rush for 1,000 yards or catch 100 passes, but he could come close and he'll be the Saints' primary red-zone threat. Can you say 20 TDs?

10. RB Rudi Johnson, Bengals - Solid, consistent and durable, Johnson will do what he always does: Rush for 1,400 yards and score 12 TDs.

11. RB Brian Westbrook, Eagles - The injury risk is great, but so are the potential rewards a healthy Westbrook (1,217 yards and seven TDs rushing, 77 catches for 699 yards and four TDs) can bring.

Feeling lucky?

12. WR Chad Johnson, Bengals - Why use your first pick on a second-tier back who offers no guarantees when you can have arguably the game's best receiver, who has averaged 93 catches, 1,359 yards and eight TDs the last three years?

13. QB Carson Palmer, Bengals - He passed for 4,035 yards and 28 TDs in his first season after having his knee rebuilt. Imagine the possibilities now that his health and confidence no longer are in question. Pairing him with Johnson could be gold.

By Michael Salfino

Getting closer to D-Day (Draft Day), also known as Christmas morning for grownups. We're relying again on our friends at MockDraftCentral.com to give us average draft position (ADP) rankings for thousands of leagues that drafted in the past week. We'll use these rankings as the basis for our recommendations. Upgrade means we think the player will earn a profit relative to this draft investment. Downgrade means we think he'll take a loss.

Upgrade

Tatum Bell, RB, Lions (ADP: 66): He's moving up the charts very slowly. Right now, there are conflicting reports on whether Kevin Jones (torn foot) gets PUP-ed for the first six weeks. Jones is finally running through tackling dummies, but not real ones yet. Bell is the kind of guy who could take a six-week audition and, um, run with it. He's got the stench of failure on him now because of how he never was able to seize that primo Denver job. But Detroit could be a nice gig for a running back: plenty of speed at WR to keep the safeties deep, potentially explosive offense, fast playing surface…. Jones continues to be drafted just a round later, which is too high until we see him practice.

Chris Brown, RB, Titans (ADP: 148): I suspect he's moved way up the charts given his solid game last weekend and LenDale White's inability to get on the field until Wednesday. White (ankle/knee/fat) is being drafted around 97. Chris Henry, the workout-wonder of a rookie, is being grabbed, on average, at 136. Brown has a good chance to start opening day and thus has turned into the value play among this trio. While I still recommend drafting Henry, he's raw and inexperienced having never started in college or even high school.

Anthony Gonzalez, WR, Colts (ADP: 165): He's a pocket pick for me. Make sure you grab him late. Even if he's the third WR in the Colt offense, he'll be dangerous on days when Peyton Manning is dealing (i.e., most days). Forget about a 10-TD season in the slot like Brandon Stokley had as a No. 3 receiver in 2004 when Manning threw 49 TD passes. I expect only 30-to-35 TD passes from Manning. But what happens if Reggie Wayne or Marvin Harrison goes down? Then Gonzalez is the most sought after free agent receiver in fantasy football. Hardly any of the guys owners are drafting in those late rounds before him have that kind of upside. And if you're in a keeper league, remember that Harrison is 35 on Saturday.

No Change

Jeremy Shockey, TE, Giants (ADP, 69): There are a lot of Tiki Barber yards laying on the field for Shockey. But he's been battling leg woes all year and limps around Giants Stadium every Sunday like Willis Reed in Game 7. Shockey was targeted 115 times last year, more than Antonio Gates. The over/under would be 135 targets if he could ever make it through a season. He doesn't miss many games. He's just very limited in too many of them.

Ronnie Brown, RB, Dolphins (ADP: 18): He's holding steady nationally, but I thought he was a value here and now have to downgrade him. New head coach Cam Cameron is seemingly conflicted in his view of Brown. Technically, Brown's fighting for the starting job with Jesse Chatman (who Cameron coached at San Diego before weight problems forced Chatman out of football for two years). Not even Chatman thinks he'll start. But Cameron says Brown is a player who is still developing and who has yet to display the home-run ability for which he was drafted. A fair, but rather cold assessment. Brown can become a real interesting guy if he slides over general disaffection with not just him but the entire struggling Dolphins offense.

Reggie Brown, WR, Eagles (ADP: 59): Other experts are getting their Ya-Yas out over Brown. But this is where he should be drafted. Don't take the bait and reach for him. If he doesn't make it to you in Round 6, grab explosive Kevin Curtis (ADP: 118) and hope he does what Donte Stallworth did in Philly last year. Brown is a glorified possession receiver, albeit in an offense that is explosive and that throws a lot (62 percent of plays in the first half last year). He is now going to be treated like a No. 1 receiver by opposing secondaries and many receivers are rendered useless when that bullseye is on their back.

Downgrade

Larry Johnson, RB, Chiefs (ADP: 3): Right after he signed his deal he predicted he would not be ready for a full workload by opening day. Plus, instead of immediately ending the Priest Holmes charade, the Chiefs said they plan for Holmes to be the "third-down and short-yardage back." I think it's still likely Holmes doesn't play a down (he hadn't yet practiced through Tuesday). But if he defies the odds, LJ can lose goal-line carries, typically reserved for the short-yardage back. Johnson is a pile-driver who converted 15 of 25 goal-line runs last year, almost as efficient as LaDainian Tomlinson (15-for-23). Note the Chiefs line looks in disarray and Herm Edwards still appears bent on starting inexperienced, mistake-prone Brodie Croyle over veteran Damon Huard, who saved his bacon in '06.

Vincent Jackson, WR, Chargers (ADP: 71): He's moved up about 10 spots the past week in the average league. Most smart guys love him. But I see a team with two stud performers who must get fed (Tomlinson and Gates) and a new head coach/offensive coordinator in Norv Turner who likes a power running game only sprinkled with big passing plays. How many times this year is Norv Turner going to try to figure out ways to get Jackson the ball? Even if the thought crosses his mind, he's going to have Tomlinson and Gates tugging at his shirtsleeve. Jackson is just happy to be playing. I don't deny the big-play ability. But he caught just 48 percent of the passes thrown to him last year, which devalues the 17.7 per reception a lot. Remember that about 25 percent of his targets last year came in the final regular season game when many starters were pulled in the third quarter.

By David Ferris

As of 8/22/07

* = check status

Following are complete fantasy football, full-season rankings to assist owners in drafts and auctions. These rankings are updated each week and based on a combined yardage/scoring system (4 points for a passing touchdown, 6 points for a rushing/receiving touchdown, one point for every 25 passing yards, one point for every 10 rushing/receiving yards).

In season, this cheat sheet becomes the Matchup Meter and ranks players based only on that week's opponent. Then, it's filed Wednesday night and updated every Saturday morning in light of injury and other news from around the NFL.

Quarterback
1. Peyton Manning, Colts
2. Carson Palmer, Bengals
3. Tom Brady, Patriots
4. Drew Brees, Saints
5. Marc Bulger, Rams
6. Vince Young, Titans
7. *Donovan McNabb, Eagles
NOTE: Passing will be fine, but no longer a scrambler.
8. Jon Kitna, Lions
9. Tony Romo, Cowboys
10. Ben Roethlisberger, Steelers
UPGRADE: Ready for heavier role in offense.
11. Matt Hasselbeck, Seahawks
12. Philip Rivers, Chargers
13. Matt Leinart, Cardinals
14. Eli Manning, Giants
15. J.P. Losman, Bills
SLEEPER: Improved significantly in 2006.
16. Brett Favre, Packers
17. Jay Cutler, Broncos
18. Jake Delhomme, Panthers
HEADS-UP: David Carr is a legitimate threat.
19. Alex Smith, Niners
20. *Jason Campbell, Redskins
21. Matt Schaub, Texans
22. Jeff Garcia, Bucs
23. Rex Grossman, Bears
NOTE: One step forward, two steps back.
24. Chad Pennnington, Jets
25. Trent Green, Dolphins
26. Steve McNair, Ravens
27. Joey Harrington, Falcons
28. Byron Leftwich, Jaguars
NOTE: Not a favorite of Jack Del Rio.
29. *Daunte Culpepper, Raiders
30. *Brady Quinn, Browns
31. Tarvaris Jackson, Vikings
32. *Brodie Croyle, Chiefs
33. David Garrard, Jaguars
34. David Carr, Panthers
35. Brian Griese, Bears
36. Kyle Boller, Ravens
37. Kellen Clemens, Jets

Running Back
1. LaDainian Tomlinson, Chargers
2. Steven Jackson, Rams
3. *Frank Gore, Niners
4. Shaun Alexander, Seahawks
5. Joseph Addai, Colts
6. Rudi Johnson, Bengals
7. Larry Johnson, Chiefs
NOTE: All those dollars can't clear holes for him.
8. Willie Parker, Steelers
9. *Travis Henry, Broncos
10. Brian Westbrook, Eagles
NOTE: Unreal talent but seldom goes 16 games.
11. Reggie Bush, Saints
12. Maurice Jones-Drew, Jaguars
13. Cedric Benson, Bears
14. Willis McGahee, Ravens
15. Edgerrin James, Cardinals
16. *Laurence Maroney, Patriots
17. *Thomas Jones, Jets
18. Marshawn Lynch, Bills
19. *Clinton Portis, Redskins
20. Ahman Green, Texans
21. Ronnie Brown, Dolphins
DOWNGRADE: Solid back but line could be problem.
22. Jamal Lewis, Browns
NOTE: Market trends down, but a steal as your third back.
23. Deuce McAllister, Saints
24. Brandon Jacobs, Giants
25. Adrian Peterson, Vikings
26. LaMont Jordan, Raiders
UPGRADE: Solid camp, and no Rhodes for a month.
27. Julius Jones, Cowboys
28. Carnell Williams, Bucs
29. Jerious Norwood, Falcons
30. Ladell Betts, Redskins
UPGRADE: Most tempting backup on the board.
31. Tatum Bell, Lions
SLEEPER: Gets chance to shine with Jones dinged up.
32. Brandon Jackson, Packers
33. DeShaun Foster, Panthers
SLEEPER: He's probably held off Williams, to this point.
34. Marion Barber, Cowboys
DOWNGRADE: Don't pony up for last year's TDs.
35. DeAngelo Williams, Panthers
36. Kevin Jones, Lions
37. Chris Brown, Titans
SLEEPER: Probably will start, line is solid.
38. Chester Taylor, Vikings
39. Fred Taylor, Jaguars
40. Leon Washington, Jets
41. Warrick Dunn, Falcons
42. Michael Turner, Chargers
43. Michael Pittman, Bucs
44. Anthony Thomas, Bills
45. Jesse Chatman, Dolphins
NOTE: Pushing Brown in Miami, apparently.
46. Reuben Droughns, Giants
47. Adrian Peterson, Bears
48. *Vernand Morency, Packers
49. Sammy Morris, Patriots
50. Brian Leonard, Rams
51. Chris Henry, Titans
52. LenDale White, Titans
53. *Mike Bell, Broncos
54. Tony Hunt, Eagles
SLEEPER: Looks good at the goal line.
55. Ron Dayne, Texans
56. Cecil Sapp, Broncos
57. Noah Herron, Packers
58. Dominic Rhodes, Raiders
HEADS-UP: Out for opening month.
59. Marcel Shipp, Cardinals
60. Jerome Harrison, Browns

Wide Receiver
1. Steve Smith, Panthers
2. Torry Holt, Rams
3. Marvin Harrison, Colts
4. Reggie Wayne, Colts
5. Chad Johnson, Bengals
6. Terrell Owens, Cowboys
UPGRADE: Quiet camp is a good camp.
7. Larry Fitzgerald, Cardinals
8. Lee Evans, Bills
UPGRADE: He's always had the goods, now Losman does too.
9. T.J. Houshmandzadeh, Bengals
10. Marques Colston, Saints
11. Roy Williams, Lions
12. Anquan Boldin, Cardinals
13. Javon Walker, Broncos
14. Andre Johnson, Texans
15. Donald Driver, Packers
16. *Plaxico Burress, Giants
17. *Randy Moss, Patriots
18. Reggie Brown, Eagles
UPGRADE: Andy Reid's system is a star maker.
19. Hines Ward, Steelers
20. Deion Branch, Seahawks
21. Joey Galloway, Bucs
NOTE: Number still there, but turns 36 in November.
22. Santana Moss, Redskins
23. Laveranues Coles, Jets
24. Chris Chambers, Dolphins
25. Calvin Johnson, Lions
NOTE: Hype is justified, but plenty of pass catchers here.
26. Braylon Edwards, Browns
27. Bernard Berrian, Bears
SLEEPER: Perhaps the best value play on the board.
28. *Darrell Jackson, Niners
29. Jerricho Cotchery, Jets
30. Ronald Curry, Raiders
31. Santonio Holmes, Steelers
SLEEPER: Everything in place for sophomore breakout.
32. Vincent Jackson, Chargers
33. D.J. Hackett, Seahawks
34. Kevin Curtis, Eagles
35. Jerry Porter, Raiders
36. *Mark Clayton, Ravens
37. Muhsin Muhammad, Bears
38. *Donte Stallworth, Patriots
39. Isaac Bruce, Rams
40. *Devery Henderson, Saints
41. Eddie Kennison, Chiefs
42. *Terry Glenn, Cowboys
43. Derrick Mason, Ravens
44. Greg Jennings, Packers
45. Drew Bennett, Rams
46. Joe Horn, Falcons
47. Brandon Jones, Titans
48. Wes Welker, Patriots
49. Michael Jenkins, Falcons
50. Bobby Wade, Vikings
51. Patrick Crayton, Cowboys
52. Amani Toomer, Giants
53. Mike Furrey, Lions
54. Craig Davis, Chargers
NOTE: Likely to start as a rookie.
55. Troy Williamson, Vikings
NOTE: Eyes are fine now; must rebuild confidence.
56. Anthony Gonzalez, Colts
57. Brandon Marshall, Broncos
58. Dennis Northcutt, Jaguars
59. Joe Jurevicius, Browns
60. Drew Carter, Panthers
61. Terrance Copper, Saints
SLEEPER: Bump him up if Henderson heals slowly.
62. Arnaz Battle, Niners
63. Bobby Engram, Seahawks
64. *Marty Booker, Dolphins
65. Ernest Wilford, Jaguars
66. Ted Ginn, Dolphins
67. James Jones, Packers
68. Matt Jones, Jaguars
69. Antwaan Randle El, Redskins
70. Bryant Johnson, Cardinals
71. Dwayne Jarrett, Panthers
72. Malcolm Floyd, Chargers

Tight End
1. Antonio Gates, Chargers
2. Tony Gonzalez, Chiefs
3. Todd Heap, Ravens
4. Chris Cooley, Redskins
UPGRADE: The best value at the position.
5. Jeremy Shockey, Giants
6. Vernon Davis, Niners
UPGRADE: Should be Smith's primary target.
7. Kellen Winslow, Browns
8. Alge Crumpler, Falcons
DOWNGRADE: Vick's absence hurts him the most.
9. Jason Witten, Cowboys
10. Ben Watson, Patriots
11. Dallas Clark, Colts
12. Heath Miller, Steelers
13. Randy McMichael, Rams
14. Eric Johnson, Saints
15. *L.J. Smith, Eagles
16. Bo Scaife, Titans
SLEEPER: Young's most trusted target.
17. Owen Daniels, Texans
18. Marcus Pollard, Seahawks
19. Alex Smith, Bucs
20. Chris Baker, Jets
21. Desmond Clark, Bears
DOWNGRADE: He'll lose targets to rookie Greg Olsen.
22. Mark Campbell, Saints

Kicker
1. Adam Vinatieri, Colts
2. Neil Rackers, Cardinals
NOTE: Has good shot to get his mojo back.
3. Nate Kaeding, Chargers
4. Shayne Graham, Bengals
5. Jeff Wilkins, Rams
6. David Akers, Eagles
7. Olindo Mare, Saints
SLEEPER: Indoors and tied to a strong offense.
8. Stephen Gostkowski, Patriots
9. Jason Elam, Broncos
10. Robbie Gould, Bears
DOWNGRADE: Dream seasons at kicker seldom repeat.
11. Josh Brown, Seahawks
12. John Kasay, Panthers
13. Matt Stover, Ravens
14. Jason Hanson, Lions
15. Josh Scobee, Jaguars
16. Mike Nugent, Jets
SLEEPER: Was automatic during 2006 stretch drive.
17. Joe Nedney, Niners
18. Rian Lindell, Bills
19. Jeff Reed, Steelers
20. Phil Dawson, Browns

Defense
1. Bears
NOTE: The clear top dog, but normally overpriced.
2. Ravens
3. Chargers
4. Patriots
5. Cowboys
6. Eagles
7. Packers
SLEEPER: Unit quietly got nasty down stretch in 2006.
8. Seahawks
9. Panthers
10. Broncos
11. Jaguars
12. Vikings
13. Steelers
14. Raiders
NOTE: If only they weren't tied to lousy offense.
15. Dolphins
16. Rams
17. Cardinals
18. Bills
19. Jets
20. Niners
21. Giants
22. Bengals

By Michael Salfino

The predicted new age of passing proficiency never materialized after a record-shattering 2004 season coinciding with strict enforcement of the illegal contact rule (the latest in the long history of rule changes benefiting the passing game).

In 2004, nine QBs threw more than 25 TD passes, four threw more than 30 and one (Peyton Manning) threw an NFL record 49. But just six QBs have tossed more than 25 scoring strikes since (Manning and Carson Palmer have done it twice, Drew Brees and Tom Brady once).

Perhaps the reason for the decline at the top is merely that more QBs of late are not playing full seasons due to injuries and younger prospects stepping into starting jobs in-season.

Let's clarify by looking at the percentage of passes that are TDs. If you stay healthy and are on a reasonably aggressive passing team, you should get 500 attempts (a little more than 31 per game). If you then connect on TDs 5 percent of the time, that gets you 25 TD passes; 6 percent gets you 30. Manning, in 2004, threw TDs on 9.9 percent of his attempts.

In 2004, 11 passers met or bettered the 5 percent threshold. In 2005, it was seven. Last year, only five (in order, they were Donovan McNabb, Manning, Tony Romo, Palmer and Michael Vick). Additionally, note total, annual NFL TD passes since 2004: 732, 644, 648.

We've clearly lost that 2004 passing mojo. Why?

Lots of QBs may have had career seasons in 2004. But we're also likely in a defensive cycle that will last as long as takes for offensive coordinators master the Cover 2 defense now in vogue everywhere.

When looking for QB sleepers, remember that top performers in yards per pass attempt (YPA) are almost always tops in TD efficiency. A top-scoring QB should have at least a 7.5 YPA. (Romo last year finished at 8.6 and is thus very underrated.)

Functional Arm Strength is my own invention, where I focus only on QB performance on passes that travel 11-to-20 yards from scrimmage. This is the only "deep" throw in today's NFL where we have a sufficient sample size for all QBs. On average, about 19 percent of all attempts are this distance.

Now let's make some QB predictions.

Buy

Donovan McNabb, Eagles: Not only had a 100-plus QB rating on 11-to-20 yard tosses, but on throws between 20 and 40 yards, too. And about 13 percent of his attempts were 20-plus yards from scrimmage, at the high end for the league. Most importantly, the Eagles last year threw a league-high 62 percent of the time in the first half.

Marc Bulger, Rams: A healthy Bulger will be more productive than Brees this year. Bulger's passing yards were third in the league. He threw 56 percent of the time in the first half of games and most inside the opposing 10 (57 percent).

Hold

Jason Campbell, Redskins: Offensive coordinator Al Saunders called run 54 percent of the time in the first half last year, and the two-headed backfield makes 500 rushing attempts likely. But I like 10 TD passes in 207 attempts last year (just about 5 percent).

Sell

Alex Smith, Niners: Took a wrong turn right into Palookaville in the second half of 2006, with a QB rating down around 70 (it was 89 in September). The Niners will continue to run a lot in the first half (5.4 yards per carry in the first and second quarter).

Brett Favre, Packers: He's an ugly player now. His YPA is an unacceptable 6.3 and he generates first downs on less than 30 percent of total passing attempts, which slots him alongside of bums like Andrew Walter, Charlie Frye and Joey Harrington.

Byron Leftwich, Jaguars: Only David Carr and Mark Brunell generated a lower percentage of air yards than Leftwich's 44.7 (the rest of Leftwich's yards were gained by receivers after the catch). Note that those other guys now carry clipboards. David Garrard is far more accurate (12 percent poor throws -- fifth-best overall -- compared to 18 percent for Leftwich).

Steve McNair, Ravens: Once the best intermediate thrower in the game. Now, he's one of the worst, with a QB rating of 59 on 11-to-20 yard throws. McNair has clearly lost his fastball.

If you read every single news item from the NFL this month, you'd never have time to eat, sleep, and shower. Here's a condensed version for you, all the news fantasy owners need to know three weeks into August (and with two preseason game in the books).

By David Ferris

Travis Henry left Saturday's game with a knee injury; a subsequent MRI revealed no major damage. Don't look for him to play much if at all the remainder of the preseason. With Mike Bell (hip) also hurt and down a couple of weeks, Cecil Sapp might be worth a late-round flyer in deeper groups. But at the end of the day, I'm not terribly worried about Henry, and would still consider him in the late first round or anywhere in the second round.

Donovan McNabb passed his first test with flying colors, looking very sharp (6-for-9, 138 yards, one touchdown) in his first start since tearing his ACL in November. McNabb played with a brace on the knee and will likely keep that on in the regular season.

Daunte Culpepper outplayed Andrew Walter and Josh McCown in the second preseason game and probably has a leg up on being Oakland's starting quarterback to begin the year. Meanwhile, the Raiders haven't made any progress with top pick JaMarcus Russell, and even if things were to radically change on that front before the end of the month, he's too far behind to be starting anytime soon.

Friday was a good day for Titans RB Chris Brown at New England; he ran well with the backups (10 carries, 67 yards), while Chris Henry did nothing with the first team (8-15) and LenDale White (knee/ankle) didn't play. Brown's resume doesn't inspire any long-term confidence, but he'll probably break camp as the starter, giving him some depth value in larger leagues.

Rookie RB Brandon Jackson probably has a starting spot wrapped up with the Packers. He's been serviceable in both preseason games (13-54, touchdown in Game 2), while Vernand Morency (knee) isn't ready to play yet. Another Packer rookie to keep in mind is WR James Jones, who's scored a couple of touchdowns and could become the team's No. 3 receiver. The Packers cleared the runaway a bit when they cut scuffling veteran Robert Ferguson last week.

While we never want to get carried away with anything we see in August, the early trends with Ronnie Brown should concern anyone from a fantasy perspective. Brown has been getting work on kickoff returns – it's puzzling why the Dolphins would want to risk their featured tailback in that role – and it's no guarantee that Brown will be used exclusively as the team's short-yardage back. The Miami offensive line is also a major concern for Brown, and the Dolphins are clearly the worst team in the AFC East on paper.

Washington QB Jason Campbell left Saturday's game with a knee injury, but it's only considered a bruise and he won't miss any significant time. While Campbell is a long-shot fantasy option at best, the entire Washington offense would take a hit if the club were forced to start Todd Collins or Mark Brunell.

A few of your opponents are probably hot for Detroit WR Calvin Johnson, which is fine. Let them suck all of the value out of the slot and take him in the first third of your draft. While Johnson is the most talented WR prospect I've seen in a decade, he's also got plenty of competition for the ball in Detroit: Roy Williams is already a Pro Bowl talent, Mike Furrey caught 98 passes last year, and Shaun McDonald knows the Mike Martz offense well from his time in St. Louis (McDonald also has two scores this month). Is there a chance Johnson will make a Randy Moss-like explosion right out of the box? Sure, but it's not as likely as many seem to believe. Johnson will be a superstar in the next year or two, but we're not paying superstar prices for him yet.

TE Bo Scaife might wind up being the best pass-catcher in Tennessee this year. He's caught seven passes in two games and he knows Vince Young well from their days together at Texas. TE Ben Troupe is also around, but he's been dealing with a foot injury and hasn't fully worked in two weeks.

Raiders RB LaMont Jordan looked pretty good in the San Francisco game (8-67 rushing, one touchdown), and he doesn't have to worry about Dominic Rhodes (suspension) for the opening month. You could do a lot worse than Jordan as your third or fourth back.

Lovie Smith is fully endorsing Cedric Benson as his workhorse back, hinting that we'll see less substitution at the position than last year. If Benson can stay healthy he's got a very plausible path to stardom: Chicago's offensive line is very good, and the team is still capable of dominating in the NFC North.

QB Brady Quinn gets high marks for his pro opener, completing 13-of-20 passes for 155 yards and a couple of touchdowns. He's not going to be Cleveland's starter right away, but there's a good chance he'll be the No. 1 guy by the middle of the year.

RB Tony Hunt punched in a couple of short touchdowns Friday and looks set as Philadelphia's designated runner from in close. This won't have too much of an effect on Brian Westbrook – he's never been used much at the goal line – but Hunt's promotion makes Correll Buckhalter just about undraftable.

By David Ferris

If you read every single news item from the NFL this month, you'd never have time to eat, sleep and shower. Here's a condensed version for you, all the news fantasy owners need to know midway through August (and with one preseason game in the books).

Clinton Portis had his knee examined by Dr. James Andrews recently, which is seldom good news for fantasy players. Even if Portis is healthy come the start of the regular season, Ladell Betts is a fantastic spec pick once all of the starting backs are off the board – he fits the offense well, Washington has a very strong offensive line, and we saw Betts become a dominant runner when given the starting job at the end of last year. I'm surprised the Redskins didn't try harder to move Portis in the offseason.

Thomas Jones has his calf injury and the Eric Mangini code of secrecy around it – week-to-week is the latest we've heard there. I'm more optimistic about Jones for the early part of the year than Portis, but nonetheless Leon Washington should be one of the top backup RBs selected in any draft (probably 10-15 picks after Betts goes).

Vernon Davis has been very impressive in San Francisco's camp and barring injury, the second-year tight end should easily lead the team in receptions. Alex Smith has one of the weaker arms in the league, so any big, reliable target in the middle of the field, between the hashes, is someone he'll use a lot.

Don't be too concerned about Larry Johnson's holdout, but the condition of the Kansas City offensive line and offense in general, now that's something to be worried about. In our eyes, Johnson should go in the middle of your first round, at the earliest.

Rudi Johnson already had a very safe floor in Cincinnati – he's tied to a great offense and a solid line, and he's the automatic option from in close – and his security became even greater when Kenny Irons suffered a knee injury last week. Irons, an intriguing rookie whom the Bengals planned to use liberally, is done for the season.

Be careful with Carolina's backfield – DeAngelo Williams is clearly the most talented guy but he's got a tender ankle, DeShaun Foster played well in the first preseason game (five carries, 62 yards), and it's possible the team will use a bigger back (Eric Shelton, perhaps) to steal the valuable goal-line carries. The hope here was that one back, probably Williams, would take control of the situation in camp, but that's yet to happen.

Brandon Jackson finished the first preseason game with ordinary numbers (16 carries, 57 yards), and his best carries came in the second half against Pittsburgh scrubs. He's still getting important reps while Vernand Morency (knee) gets healthy, but it's not like Jackson is blowing anyone away, either. In short, it's fine to take Jackson if the room makes him a modest value, but we're not ready to aggressively target him, per se. The Packers have already mentioned a possible committee approach in the backfield.

Rookie Chris Henry was the only Tennessee back who showed anything much in the preseason opener, albeit he got into the game late. With Chris Brown forever an injury risk (and not someone the Titans are enamored with), and LenDale White starting to look like a sham passed off by his talented USC teammates, Henry is the only Tennessee back you need to take seriously on draft day (and you can probably land him very late).

None of the name receivers on the Jaguars do much for us, but the guy to especially avoid is Reggie Williams, who's currently No. 5 on the depth chart. Dennis Northcutt (who would be a slot receiver for most teams) is currently running with the starters along with Ernest Wilford; Matt Jones, who looked so good at the end of 2006, is on the second unit for now.

Trent Green was a mess in his first start for the Dolphins, though the offensive line more than anything deserves the blame. Bad news for Ronnie Brown owners: those are the same guys who need to open holes for him, and run blocking in general is a harder skill to master than pass blocking.

Minnesota isn't going to be a big passing team, but everyone has to throw the ball eventually, so keep an eye on starters Bobby Wade and Troy Williamson. Both looked passable in the opener.

New England's holding so many key guys out of practice, it's hard to know where their offense is right now. We're hoping Bill Belichick lets the big kids out of school for the third preseason game, but that's far from a guarantee. Laurence Maroney (shoulder) isn't taking contact at practice, and Randy Moss and Donte Stallworth – two players who have been injury prone in recent years – sat out the first preseason game.

L.J. Smith is dealing with a groin injury, bad news given that he had hernia surgery a few months ago. He's no sure thing for opening day.

St. Louis rookie RB Brian Leonard was one of the stars of the opening week, rushing nine times for 36 yards and a touchdown, and also catching five passes for 30 yards. The Rams love to throw to their backs and they're looking to ease Steven Jackson's workload just a little bit, all which makes Leonard a worthwhile target as one of your final picks.

Carnell Williams probably gets a clearer path to goal-line work with Mike Alstott done for the season, but Michael Pittman will also see regular time.

Greg Olsen caught two passes on Chicago's first drive of the preseason, which means he'll be cutting into Desmond Clark's production sooner, rather than later. The learning curve of the NFL might keep Olsen from being a dynamic tight end right away, but he's a can't-miss kid for keeper-league players.

By Michael Salfino

Average Draft Position (ADP) data is provided this week by our friends at MockDraftCentral.com, which allows users to participate in three live mock drafts per month for free. That qualifies as a preseason workout for us fantasy couch potatoes. Again, "upgrade" here means I think the player is a bargain. "Downgrade" means he's likely overpriced.

Upgrade

Chris Henry, RB, Titans (ADP: 137th overall; highest: 88th): A size/speed combine freak who never started in college or HIGH SCHOOL, Henry was drafted in the second round to start, not back up. He's third-string at the moment, but was the most impressive Titans back by far in preseason Week 1. LenDale White so unimpressed management last year that they spent the spring dancing with the Chargers in a failed attempt to trade for Michael Turner. Chris Brown is 27 and was brought back by the Titans long after no one showed serious interest in free agency. When a RB situation is as unsettled as this, the wisest course is to buy cheap and hope for the best.

Leon Washington, RB, Jets (ADP: 124th, Highest: 89th): If Thomas Jones (calf) stays healthy, Washington will be useful only in the deepest league as a change-of-pace, third-down back. But Jones is 29 and would be Top 50 all-time in carries if he makes it through the whole season. It's certainly no given that this journeyman will end 2007 as one of the 50 most durable backs in league history. Washington could be the Maurice Jones-Drew of 2007.

Ben Roethlisberger, QB, Steelers (ADP: 118th, Highest: 82nd): This isn't the Steelers of 2005 on either side of the ball. Last year, they were middle of the pack in percentage of pass plays called overall and in the first-half of games. The Steelers defense is vulnerable to the pass (middle of the pack in YPA and points per attempt and now without Cowher). Roethlisberger was fighting the cobwebs last year after two massive knock-out blows (including the motorcycle accident). Throw out the first three games after the crash (and appendectomy) and first two after the KO versus the Falcons and Roethlisberger loses 14 of his picks. In the other games, he maintained a 23-TD pace (plus two rushing TDs). I think you'll be able to win with him as a starter most weeks and, at this price, there's no risk in finding out.

Michael Turner, RB, Chargers (ADP: 104th, Highest: 72nd) You let Turner slide this far and there's a guarantee that the Tomlinson owner gets him. And that Tomlinson owner needs to sweat about something. But this is an offensive move, too. The Turner owner is one Tomlinson snap, crackle or pop away from having a championship-caliber back. Turner can do what Larry Johnson did in 2005 once Priest Holmes got hurt. Remember, Tomlinson has more mileage than any RB his age in NFL history.

Vince Young, QB, Titans (ADP: 91st, Highest 53rd): This is an attractive price for a guy who should rush for eight TDs and throw for at least 16 more. With rushing TDs counting for twice as much as passing in many leagues, that's like a 32-TD pass season. And that beats almost all of the competition every year. A healthy, developing Young could rush for 10 and throw for 20. Then, you're talking "championship."

Antonio Gates, TE, Chargers (ADP: 32nd, Highest 23rd): In leagues that must play a tight end, Gates is gold. Norv Turner wants to spread him out as a wide receiver more. Gates has proven unstoppable when lined up outside hashmarks. Last year, Gates averaged 15.9 on 36 catches when standing upright at the snap. I understand that Jeremy Shockey was targeted more last year than Gates (115 passes to 113). But Tomlinson is going to regress to the mean this year, which leaves a lot more important action to Gates. Last year, near the goal line, he was targeted just three times, or one less than Bears backup TE John Gilmore. And Gates still had nine TD catches.

Hold

Maurice Jones-Drew, RB, Jaguars (ADP: 18th, highest: 11th): This seems like a great price for a guy coming off a 16-TD season (kickoff returns count, too). But expect Fred Taylor to get half the carries as long as he stays healthy. A healthy Taylor is a good bet to be effective, too. Perhaps Jones-Drew's lack of height (5-foot-6) is still being held against him. He was 25th among running backs in goal-line plays, but his massive thighs and low center of gravity enabled him to generate six TDs in his 10 attempts. That conversion rate is way better than most backs and just a notch below LaDainian Tomlinson. Fred Taylor was 1-for-6 on the goal line and is always terrible in short yardage. Jones-Drew looks to be the very odd combination of change-of-pace, third-down and short-yardage/goal-line back.

Cedric Benson, RB, Bears (ADP: 24th, highest: 14th): Benson is being penalized for Rex Grossman's struggles in the second half and, especially, in the Super Bowl. But he's on a winning, defensive-oriented team in a weak division that often plays in rough weather. Running back production correlates significantly with winning. The carries will be there now with Thomas Jones toiling for the Jets. The safeties can't be too aggressive with Grossman seventh in the NFL last year at 12.2 yards per completion.

Downgrade

Ahman Green, RB, Texans (ADP: 43rd, Highest: 26th): That might not seem too bad in running back-mad leagues. But it's ahead of Buffalo's Marshawn Lynch, which is crazy. You want running backs sporting those showroom tires instead of retreads like Green's. Ahman's owners have to hope that he somehow stays healthy and avoids an age-based decline while unproven QB Matt Schaub instantly thrives in a new system. Other backs I'd gladly take over Green: Jerious Norwood (ADP: 55th), D'Angelo Williams (56th) and Adrian Peterson (60th).

By Michael Salfino

Similar to how they line up after breaking the huddle, running backs are just behind quarterbacks on the NFL glamour scale and have brought home the bling in the form of the MVP Trophy two years running. LaDainian Tomlinson also followed Shaun Alexander in setting the NFL TD record, the third and fourth time a back has set it this decade.

Great TD seasons are always linked with an overall offense that generates a large number of red-zone possessions. Coaches throw away the goal-line playbook once the record is in sight and continue that trend the following year, as every TD champ this decade has followed up with a second league-leading year. The workload appears to take a toll in year three -- two of the three (Alexander and Marshall Faulk) badly declined while the other, Priest Holmes, missed half a season with injury.

Tomlinson's 2,448 touches since entering the NFL in 2001 are 25th most in NFL history. And no one has had 390-plus touches like LDT for six straight years. That's why the Chargers refused to trade free-agent-to-be Michael Turner (6.0 career rushing average).

The team with the most red zone possessions in 2007 will likely have feature the TD king. The Chargers led the NFL with 62 last year, but the Colts tied them and the Patriots were just two behind. The Cowboys made a late charge behind Tony Romo, finishing with 58. The Steelers were fifth with 56.

Expect breakout TD seasons from second-year RBs Laurence Maroney (Pats) and Joseph Addai (Colts), now extricated from committee situations. While Tom Brady and Peyton Manning throw lots of TDs, both backs have good hands. And since these QBs generate TDs on nearly two-thirds of red-zone possessions, there will be plenty of love to go around.

With the likelihood of a committee in Dallas (featuring Julius Jones and Marion Barber), a sleeper pick for TD supremacy is Willie Parker in Pittsburgh.

New Orleans fluky success generating scores on long passes kept their red zone possessions down last year. But Drew Brees moves the chains (third-best at converting third downs). Alas, Reggie Bush can't turn into Faulk Jr. while losing most carries near the goal line to Deuce McAllister (three times the goal-line carries as Bush).

Let's use these stats to make some running back predictions for 2007.

Buy

Willie Parker, Steelers: New offensive coordinator Bruce Arians promises Parker all the important touches. He was fourth in goal-line plays last year (22). Ben Roethlisberger should rebound from his concussion-related 2006 struggles.

Steven Jackson, Rams: Sixth in goal-line plays (20). The Rams will be top five in red-zone possessions if Marc Bulger plays to form on third downs (just 19th best in '06) in his second year in Scott Linehan's system.

Laurence Maroney, Patriots: Just to make the above recommendation official. A healthy Maroney should score 15-to-25 TDs, depending on how the goal-line plays break.

Joseph Addai, Colts: Peyton Manning will call Addai's number near paydirt more than many think: 50 runs, 39 passes inside the opposing 10 last year.

Willis McGahee, Ravens: Steve McNair could fall off the cliff. But he was top 10 in third-down efficiency. The Ravens defense generates great field position that results in more offensive red-zone possessions.

Marshawn Lynch, Bills: The committee talks can't be serious. Lynch (12th overall pick) has a very high ceiling as a do-it-all back. He needs young QB J.P. Losman to continue his fine late-2006 play.

Hold

Larry Johnson, Chiefs: The Chiefs first must get LJ back into camp and then put sophomore Brodie Croyle on the backburners. Damon Huard was very capable last year, though he faltered on third down (76 QB rating).

Frank Gore, Niners: Alex Smith did not progress (pathetic 63.8 QB rating in December). But Smith was adequate on third down, which provides faint hope for the red-zone possessions needed for a Gore TD breakout.

Sell

Clinton Portis, Redskins: Backup Ladell Betts (4.7 per carry) was much better last year and Portis (4.1 per carry) has knee and chronic shoulder problems.

Travis Henry, Broncos: One ill-timed fumble or shiny moment from a backup can suddenly change Mike Shanahan's RB depth chart. Henry is old for a RB (28) and seemed washed up two years ago.

By David Ferris

I've been in and out of the fantasy war room for two full decades now, and here's the playbook that's come out of that, a concise but effective guide to give you the strategic jump on your draft opponents.

Stay Current

Things change pretty fast around the NFL, especially in August when cuts are made, roles are decided, jobs are won and lost. Drafting from a magazine cheat sheet -- a list that was created in May or June -- is a sure way to sabotage your team. Take a news lap around the league and make sure your rankings are updated (something we do every week here) before you hit the war room. And don't assume that an online expert will automatically take care of your ranking needs -- even the best cheat sheets around will have some good players buried and some sketchy players inflated. Be sure to audit any sheet before you put it into play.

Sketch Out Your Plan -- In Pencil

There's nothing wrong with draft planning so long as you stay general -- flexibility is the key. If you put too much of your blueprint down in ink, you won't be ready to adjust when surprise values present themselves at the table. Consider your draft to be a round of golf -- sure, you'll come to the course with a plan of attack, but you won't actually pick your clubs and shape your shots until the in-progress conditions are upon you.

Don't Overvalue Fringe Factors

Strength of schedule analysis sounds helpful in theory, but given the reshuffle nature of the NFL, it's normally a waste of time. Did anyone expect the Saints to roll last year, or the Steelers to start 2-6? Every October the same theme resurfaces -- wow, this is the strangest season ever -- and with that in mind, you shouldn't put a lot of stock into SOS during the summer. Let's get a read on the league first.

Bye weeks are another overplayed angle. OK, it's tricky when some of your key guys have the same time off, understood, but the goal of any draft is to collect the most talent and resources possible.

Balance? We'll work on that later, with trading and free-agent moves.

Understand Supply and Demand

Acquiring depth at running back is very important; at receiver, it's somewhat important; at quarterback, it's worth considering. At the lesser positions, normally you want to go one and done (if your first tight end isn't a Top 10 guy I could see the case for adding a second).

Anyone who picks a second defense or spends a premium on a kicker is wasting the pick -- the free-agent wire will be teeming with legitimate options all season, and these are context, team-dependent positions to begin with. Don't fritter away your resources here.

Keep Up With the Neighborhood

While you don't want to obsess over what the other teams are doing at the draft, you do need to at least consider their game plan. As the night goes along, I'm constantly asking myself the same question: How are my opponents assembling their rosters? What are they likely to do next? What positions are drying up quickly? What positions are still rich?

At times you can put off a position fill because the teams picking around you are already set there -- and unlikely to grab your targeted area.

Other times, you may need to step in front of your opponents, knowing they're probably looking to fill the same needs as you.

Take What the Draft Gives You

At the end of the day, it's really not about the players at a draft, it's about the prices you pay for those players. Sleepers are fun when they click, sure, but the idea is to get those commodities at a realistic cost -- don't aggressively target those names on your sleeper list, take them when they slide to you. Conversely, just because you dislike a certain player, doesn't mean you can't grab him as a value if the entire room decides to pan him.

Two examples: San Diego WR Vincent Jackson, off a strong 2006 finish and a trendy sleeper this summer, can no longer be had at a decent price in most leagues. Conversely, Cleveland RB Jamal Lewis, stumbling veteran, has turned into a surprise value, essentially because so many fantasy owners are sick of him. If he slides to me as a third running back, I'll gladly write the ticket.

Stay Focused

More and more leagues are drafting online these days, which is great for convenience -- and terrible for distractions. Cut yourself a break on draft night and eliminate anything that will vie for your attention; keep your e-mail and message programs closed, turn your phone off, put a kibosh on Web surfing. The organized owner with the clearest mind has a tremendous advantage over the final third of the night, while the scattered donators are looking for a needle in a haystack by that point.

Beginning next week and throughout the preseason, we will feature this cheat sheet every Wednesday.

By David Ferris

*--Check status

Quarterback
1. Peyton Manning, Colts
2. Carson Palmer, Bengals
3. Tom Brady, Patriots (finally has legit stable of wideouts.)
4. Drew Brees, Saints
5. Vince Young, Titans (UPGRADE: Rushing TDs are gold at this position.)
6. Marc Bulger, Rams
7. Jon Kitna, Lions (UPGRADE: Perfect set-up: Martz offense, tons of weapons
8. Donovan McNabb, Eagles
9. Tony Romo, Cowboys
10. Ben Roethlisberger, Steelers (UPGRADE: Ready for heavier role in offense.)
11. Matt Hasselbeck, Seahawks
12. Philip Rivers, Chargers
13. Matt Leinart, Cardinals
14. Eli Manning, Giants
15. Jake Delhomme, Panthers (NOTE: At least he's chucking it to Smith most of the time.)
16. J.P. Losman, Bills
17. Brett Favre, Packers
18. Jay Cutler, Broncos
19. Alex Smith, Niners
20. Jason Campbell, Redskins (NOTE: Played better than most realized.)
21. Matt Schaub, Texans
22. Jeff Garcia, Bucs
23. Rex Grossman, Bears
24. Chad Pennnington, Jets
25. Trent Green, Dolphins (NOTE: Hand-picked by Cam Cameron.)
26. Steve McNair, Ravens
27. Byron Leftwich, Jaguars
28. Joey Harrington, Falcons
29. *Daunte Culpepper, Raiders
30. *Brady Quinn, Browns
31. *Croyle/Huard, Chiefs
32. Tarvaris Jackson, Vikings

Running Back
1. LaDainian Tomlinson, Chargers
2. Steven Jackson, Rams
3. *Frank Gore, Niners (NOTE: Hand injury unlikely to cost any real games.)
4. Shaun Alexander, Seahawks
5. Joseph Addai, Colts
6. *Larry Johnson, Chiefs (HEADS-UP: Nasty holdout a far way from over.)
7. Brian Westbrook, Eagles
8. Rudi Johnson, Bengals
9. Travis Henry, Broncos
10. Willie Parker, Steelers
11. Reggie Bush, Saints
12. Willis McGahee, Ravens (UPGRADE: Gets change of scenery at perfect time.)
13. Laurence Maroney, Patriots
14. Edgerrin James, Cardinals
15. Maurice Jones-Drew, Jaguars (NOTE: Unfortunately, still has to share with Taylor.)
16. Cedric Benson, Bears
17. Thomas Jones, Jets
18. Clinton Portis, Redskins (DOWNGRADE: Dealing with knee tendinitis, presence of Betts.)
19. Ronnie Brown, Dolphins (NOTE: Solid back but team reached on him.)
20. Ahman Green, Texans
21. Marshawn Lynch, Bills
22. Jamal Lewis, Browns (NOTE: Market trends down, but a steal as your third back.)
23. Deuce McCallister, Saints
24. Brandon Jacobs, Giants
25. Julius Jones, Cowboys (NOTE: New regime makes him a sleeper.)
26. Carnell Williams, Bucs
27. LaMont Jordan, Raiders
28. Adrian Peterson, Vikings
29. Jerious Norwood, Falcons
30. DeAngelo Williams, Panthers
31. Tatum Bell, Lions
32. Ladell Betts, Redskins
33. Marion Barber, Cowboys (DOWNGRADE: Don't pony up for last year's TDs.)
34. Kevin Jones, Lions
35. Chester Taylor, Vikings
36. Fred Taylor, Jaguars
37. Brandon Jackson, Packers
38. DeShaun Foster, Panthers
39. *Warrick Dunn, Falcons (DOWNGRADE: Off knee surgery, might never get ball back from Norwood.)
40. Vernand Morency, Packers
41. LenDale White, Titans (NOTE: Avoid this backfield until the late rounds.)
42. Reuben Droughns, Giants
43. Leon Washington, Jets
44. Adrian Peterson, Bears
45. Michael Turner, Chargers
46. Anthony Thomas, Bills
47. Michael Pittman, Bucs
48. Sammy Morris, Patriots
49. Chris Henry, Titans
50. Mike Bell, Broncos

Wide Receiver
1. Steve Smith, Panthers
2. Chad Johnson, Bengals
3. Torry Holt, Rams
4. Marvin Harrison, Colts
5. Reggie Wayne, Colts
6. Larry Fitzgerald, Cardinals
7. *Terrell Owens, Cowboys (HEADS-UP: Almost never plays full 16 games.)
8. Lee Evans, Bills (UPGRADE: He's always had the goods, now Losman does too.)
9. T.J. Houshmandzadeh, Bengals
10. Marques Colston, Saints
11. Roy Williams, Lions
12. Anquan Boldin, Cardinals
13. Javon Walker, Broncos
14. Andre Johnson, Texans (NOTE: Probably offered to drive David Carr out of town.)
15. Donald Driver, Packers
16. Randy Moss, Patriots
17. Plaxico Burress, Giants
18. Reggie Brown, Eagles (UPGRADE: Andy Reid's system is a star maker.)
19. Hines Ward, Steelers
20. Joey Galloway, Bucs
21. Deion Branch, Seahawks (NOTE: A No. 2 who's paid as a No. 1.)
22. Santana Moss, Redskins
23. Laveranues Coles, Jets (NOTE: Cotchery similar and comes much cheaper.)
24. Chris Chambers, Dolphins
25. Calvin Johnson, Lions
26. Braylon Edwards, Browns
27. Bernard Berrian, Bears (NOTE: He'll get open, but can Grossman find him?)
28. *Darrell Jackson, Niners
29. Jerricho Cotchery, Jets
30. D.J. Hackett, Seahawks (SLEEPER: Has decent shot to be Hasselbeck's first option.)
31. Ronald Curry, Raiders
32. Vincent Jackson, Chargers (NOTE: Justly on everyone's sleeper list; there goes the value.)
33. Greg Jennings, Packers
34. Santonio Holmes, Steelers
35. Jerry Porter, Raiders
36. *Terry Glenn, Cowboys
37. Muhsin Muhammad, Bears
38. Devery Henderson, Saints (NOTE: Tasty upside but job isn't guaranteed.)
39. Mark Clayton, Ravens
40. Kevin Curtis, Eagles
41. Donte Stallworth, Patriots
42. Isaac Bruce, Rams
43. Derrick Mason, Ravens
44. Drew Bennett, Rams
45. Joe Horn, Falcons
46. Eddie Kennison, Chiefs
47. Matt Jones, Jaguars (DOWNGRADE: Club has drafted terribly at this position.)
48. Michael Jenkins, Falcons
59. Brandon Marshall, Broncos
50. Drew Carter, Panthers
51. Wes Welker, Patriots (SLEEPER: Underrated slot machine and Stallworth no sure bet.)
52. Amani Toomer, Giants
53. Arnaz Battle, Niners
54. Mike Furrey, Lions
55. Bobby Wade, Vikings
56. Malcolm Floyd, Chargers
57. Troy Williamson, Vikings (NOTE: Eyes are fine now; must rebuild confidence.)
58. Patrick Crayton, Cowboys (SLEEPER: Much needed given nicked-up teammates.)
59. Anthony Gonzalez, Colts
60. Joe Jurevicius, Browns
61. Bobby Engram, Seahawks
62. Marty Booker, Dolphins
63. Ted Ginn, Dolphins
64. Antwaan Randle El, Redskins
65. Bryant Johnson, Cardinals

Tight End
1. Antonio Gates, Chargers
2. Tony Gonzalez, Chiefs
3. Todd Heap, Ravens
4. Chris Cooley, Redskins (UPGRADE: The best value at the position.)
5. Jeremy Shockey, Giants
6. Kellen Winslow, Browns
7. Vernon Davis, Niners
8. Alge Crumpler, Falcons (DOWNGRADE: Vick absence would hurt him the most.)
9. Jason Witten, Cowboys
10. Ben Watson, Patriots
11. Dallas Clark, Colts
12. Heath Miller, Steelers
13. Randy McMichael, Rams
14. Eric Johnson, Saints (SLEEPER: Drew Brees believes, and so do we.)
15. *L.J. Smith, Eagles
16. Marcus Pollard, Seahawks
17. Alex Smith, Bucs
18. Owen Daniels, Texans
19. Chris Baker, Jets
20. Desmond Clark, Bears (DOWNGRADE: He'll lose targets to rookie Greg Olsen.)

Kicker
1. Adam Vinatieri, Colts (NOTE: Never attack this position early.)
2. Jeff Wilkins, Rams
3. Neil Rackers, Cardinals
4. Nate Kaeding, Chargers
5. Shayne Graham, Bengals
6. David Akers, Eagles
7. Stephen Gostkowski, Patriots
8. Jason Elam, Broncos
9. Olindo Mare, Saints (SLEEPER: Indoors and tied to a strong offense.)
10. Robbie Gould, Bears (DOWNGRADE: Dream seasons at kicker seldom repeat.)
11. Josh Brown, Seahawks
12. John Kasay, Panthers
13. Matt Stover, Ravens (DOWNGRADE: Seldom trusted with long kicks anymore.)
14. Jason Hanson, Lions
15. Josh Scobee, Jaguars
16. Mike Nugent, Jets
17. Joe Nedney, Niners
18. Rian Lindell, Bills
19. Jeff Reed, Steelers
20. Phil Dawson, Browns

Defense
1. Bears (NOTE: The clear top dog, but normally overpriced.)
2. Ravens
3. Chargers
4. Patriots
5. Cowboys
6. Eagles
7. Packers (SLEEPER: Unit quietly got nasty down stretch in 2006.)
8. Seahawks
9. Panthers
10. Dolphins
11. Broncos
12. Steelers
13. Jaguars
14. Vikings
15. Raiders (NOTE: If only they weren't tied to lousy offense.)
16. Rams
17. Cardinals
18. Bills
19. Niners
20. Bengals

Football differs from other team sports most significantly in the impact the team environment has on individual performance.

A major part of this environment, of course, is fellow players. But less obvious is the impact that the play-calling tendencies of coaches have on player performance. So let's focus first on coaching changes in our attempt to predict which players will perform significantly better or worse than in 2006.

We don't expect fundamental philosophical changes on offense when a team promotes a coordinator from the prior staff, or when the head coach changes but the coordinator stays in place.

So expect similarly styled attacks in San Francisco and Dallas (new offensive coordinator Jason Garrett reports to assistant head coach Tony Sparano, who called plays in Dallas last year).

San Diego's offense is unlikely to change substantively despite losing its head coach and offensive coordinator. Norv Turner takes the reigns of the team and especially the offense. He's guaranteed to employ a similar power-running, downfield passing attack.

But significant changes are likely afoot in Pittsburgh, Carolina, Arizona, Miami, Oakland and Atlanta. Let's examine why.

New Steelers head coach Mike Tomlin has a defensive background and hands the offensive reigns to holdover WR coach Bruce Arians, who once served as Peyton Manning's QB coach. Expect the Steelers to continue their transition in 2007 to becoming a decidedly more pass-heavy team (17th in percentage of pass plays and more aggressive in the first-half of games than overall).

The expectation in Carolina is that new coordinator Jeff Davidson, whose background is on the offensive line, will reemphasize the running game. Carolina was ninth in overall percentage of pass plays last year (56 percent) and called passes about as frequently in the first half of games. But Davidson is a protégé of Charlie Weis. So assume he'll implement a Weis-styled offense, which generally finished near the top of the league in passing TDs -- a good indicator of aggressiveness.

Everyone is high on the Cardinals' personnel in the passing game. But new head coach Ken Whisenhunt helmed a Steelers offense that, in 2005, was most extreme in running overall and on first down. He stated his top priority in Arizona is the implementation of a power running game.

New Dolphins coach and former Chargers offensive coordinator Cam Cameron will be heavily involved with the offense. His was not fantasy-friendly for the passing game last year, but had been in years past. He will likely look to build the entire attack around a feature running back.

Former USC offensive coordinator Lane Kiffin is ultimately in charge of Oakland's offense. But he probably had more offensive talent on his 2005 USC team than he'll have this year in Oakland, where he'll nonetheless try to implement the Trojan's downfield passing offense.

Now let's make some related player recommendations.

Buy

Jerious Norwood, RB, Falcons: New head coach Bobby Petrino can't possibly install a big-strike passing game with QB Joey Harrington. Warrick Dunn (back surgery) is about done (at 32). That leaves Norwood (6.4 per carry in '06) as the building block by default.

Jake Delhomme, QB, Panthers: Down last year, but usually near the top of the all-important yards-per-attempt rankings. Remember, he tossed 53 TD passes in '04 and '05. Backup David Carr has zero pocket awareness and is no threat.

Ronnie Brown, RB, Dolphins: He's got the skills, as a former No. 2 overall pick. Now, Cameron wants him to be Tomlinson 2.0. Cameron tries to transform an offense that threw second most frequently overall and about as frequently in the first half of games.

Santonio Holmes, WR, Steelers: Hines Ward (31) doesn't have a step to lose. Holmes is ascending and was quite productive down the stretch (17 catches, 388 yards in December). QB Ben Roethlisberger struggles in '06 were likely related to his multiple, massive concussions.

Hold

Philip Rivers, QB, Chargers: Looks Troy Aikman-like in his ability to win raves without big-time scoring or yardage numbers. LaDainian Tomlinson is in the Emmitt Smith role as the TD maker. And now former Cowboys coordinator Norv Turner calls the plays.

Sell

Anquan Boldin, WR, Cardinals: He needs the Cardinals to throw a lot to be effective because Larry Fitzgerald looks like the alpha male in the Arizona passing game. Perhaps Edgerrin James will spit the bit again and thwart Whisenhunt's running plans.

This week, thanks to our friends at the great site FantasyAuctioneer.com, let’s make recommendations in light of players’ concrete average auction values (AAV) in thousands of preseason leagues that have already assembled rosters. I realize that most leagues draft, so I will also indicate the corresponding draft slot for each value.

The assumption here is a 12-team league with a $200 budget for 16 players. Assumed scoring is 1 pt/20 yds passing; 1 pt/10 yards rushing/receiving; 4 pts passing TD, 6 pts all other TDs. Upgrade means we think he’s going to earn more relative to cost; downgrade, less.

Upgrade

Carnell Williams, RB, Bucs ($22.24, 41st overall): Last year, he was taken in the middle of Round 1 everywhere and I warned you that was too high. Now the price has dropped to the point where I’d be a buyer. He’s reportedly going to be firmly integrated into the passing game, which helps in point-per-catch leagues. Maybe 33-year-old Mike Alstott holds up and siphons off the goal-line carries again. (UPDATE: Alstott announced his retirement on Thursday, leaving FB B.J. Askew as the only competition for goal-line carries.) But expect Williams to double his red zone plays (just 28 last year, including times targeted as a receiver). Given his talent, Williams should be able to generate a half-dozen scores here and maybe one or two more long ones.

Julius Jones, RB, Cowboys ($11.31, 58th overall): When the committee situation can go either way, it usually pays to grab the runner who is seeded second at your draft. Last year, that Cowboy running back was Marion Barber. This year, it’s Jones, who is still very explosive and has a new coaching staff on which to make a positive first impression. If Terrell Owens tails off at age 33 (unlikely), the Cowboys will desperately need Jones’s playmaking ability.

Brandon Jackson, RB, Packers ($7.28, 77th overall): He’s had a rough start to camp. Vernand Morency seems entrenched as the starter. But Morency is a journeyman for a reason (Green Bay is his third team in less than a year). Jackson was drafted in the second round to be a starter and rookie RBs tend to make a quick impact. Expect him to be the man by Halloween. I’d always rather sign for the a guy right out of the showroom than the other RBs available in middle rounds who are mostly retreads and nearly deads.

Tony Romo, QB, Cowboys ($6.58, 82nd overall): Why take a QB early when you can get a guy like Romo nearly halfway through your draft? Romo averaged 8.61 yards per attempt, which, if he does it this year, will very likely give him over 30 TD passes. Last year, his 18 TD passes in 10 starts translates to a 29-TD pass pace. For a QB, a 7.5 YPA is a magic number; 8.5 and over is off-the-charts good. In addition, Owens is still in town and there was still no better WR weapon in football last year than him. Assistant Head Coach Tony Sparano returns as the Cowboys playcaller.

No Change

Randy Moss, WR, Patriots ($22.24, 39th overall): I feel like I’m fence-straddling with these “holds” in the preseason. But they do serve their purpose during the regular season. Moss seems perfectly priced to me, as he can earn $40 or, conceivably, $0. I’d swallow hard if someone took Moss off the board here because I know he’s a guy who can beat me and that kind of upside is always a bargain once three rounds have passed in any serious 12-team draft.

Downgrade

Peyton Manning, QB, Colts ($43.94, 12th overall): He’s an inner-circle Hall of Famer and the best QB I’ve ever seen. But you can’t win fantasy championships in standard leagues paying this kind of price for a QB. There are 10 or 12 guys every year who throw 25-TD passes (or maintain a 25-TD pace once elevated due to a benching or injury). Half of those guys get you to within arm’s length of Manning. And your fellow fantasy owners get these QBs late or even in free agency (Tony Romo). Here’s the strategy for every draft: be the last team to take a starting QB and the first team to take a backup. You’re almost certain to get a 25-TD QB this way, and maybe two. Meanwhile, the Manning owner very likely will be hunting for a running back all year.

Reggie Bush, RB, Saints ($43.50, 14th overall): This is a good price in a distance-scoring league. But few leagues use this scoring system (unfortunately). If you’re in a point-per-catch league, you can think about this kind of investment, too. But again, those leagues are in the minority. In standard scoring, Bush scores the hard way (from a distance), while Deuce McAllister gets the easy ones in close. Last year, McAllister had 21 goal-line rushes, Bush seven. The sad thing is that McAllister is generally very poor in this role (converted just 33 percent last year) and Bush isn’t half bad (3-for-7). But McAllister on the goal line is the chalk pick. Perhaps not as it should be, but very probably as it will be.

Jon Kitna, QB, Lions ($11.77, 57th overall): I’ve been down this road before. Crappy QB. Great situation. Tommy Maddox went bust. So did Kurt Warner (twice, once for the Rams and once for the Cardinals). Drew Bledsoe says, “Me, too!” It’s so easy to foresee Kitna getting benched for Michigan State rookie QB Drew Stanton (a second-round pick) after suffering through a barrage of sacks and interceptions during a typical 1-5 Lions start. I’d happily take Kitna in my last/first QB strategy. But 57th overall is way too early for that. Yes, the Lions could be explosive with the supremely gifted Roy Williams and even more talented Calvin Johnson manning the WR spots (plus pesky Mike Furry in the slot). Kitna’s 7.0 YPA seems like a positive indicator until you realize that’s about as bad as it gets in a Mike Martz offense. Of course, that YPA doesn’t factor yards lost due to those unconscionable 63 sacks. Yes, some may not have been his fault. But most probably were. And these sacks say Kitna is probably ill-suited to a Martz-styled attack.

By The Associated Press

A look at offseason changes in the NFL that could affect fantasy football rosters, with rookies designated by (R):

ARIZONA: ADDED: FB Terrelle Smith, OL Mike Gandy, C Al Johnson, OT Levi Brown (R). Hired Former Steelers offensive coordinator Ken Whisenhunt as head coach and former Cowboys receivers coach Todd Haley as offensive coordinator. GONE: T Leonard Davis, G Milford Brown, OL Chris Liwienski, FB Obafemi Ayanbadejo.

ATLANTA: ADDED: WR Joe Horn, QB Joey Harrington, QB Chris Redman, RB Arlen Harris, FB Ovie Mughelli, OL Toniu Fonoti. Hired head coach Bobby Petrino, the former offense-minded coach at Louisville, and former Cincinnati receivers coach Hue Jackson as offensive coordinator. GONE: QB Matt Schaub, FB Justin Griffith, WR Ashley Lelie, G Matt Lehr.

BALTIMORE: ADDED: RB Willis McGahee. Rick Neuheisel promoted to offensive coordinator, although coach Brian Billick will still call plays. GONE: RB Jamal Lewis, FB Ovie Mughelli, T Tony Pashos, G. Edwin Mulitalo.

BUFFALO: ADDED: RB Marshawn Lynch (R), G Derrick Dockery, T Langston Walker, OL Jason Whittle. GONE: RB Willis M