May 15, 2008
By David Ferris
One man's injury is another man's fantasy opportunity, as we'll explore in this week's version of the NL movers and shakers.
Hitters
BUY
Jerry Hairston, Utility, Reds: He's carrying three-position eligibility in a lot of leagues, and he's done a lot with his brief Cincinnati trial (.357, homer, three steals over 42 at-bats). Dusty Baker is prepared to give Hairston regular time at shortstop while Alex Gonzalez and Jeff Keppinger heal up. If you need a rover with a little speed, Hairston makes sense as a deep-league pickup.
Ronny Paulino, C, Pirates: Forget the ugly 2008 numbers we see in front of us; this is a .282 career hitter with a little bit of pop. We'll see a lot of Paulino over the next month while Ryan Doumit rehabs his thumb injury, and the Buccos have a better lineup than you think (sixth in the NL in runs). There's no long-term guarantee on this stock, but fantasy baseball owners know it's a day-to-day challenge to find numbers.
SELL
Jim Edmonds, OF, Cubs: You know Lou Piniella was desperate for a center fielder when the Cubbies gave this veteran the call. Edmonds turns 37 in July and his aggressive career in the field has taken a physical toll; the one-month audition in San Diego (.178/.265/.235) had the looks of a player at the end.
HOLD
Jay Bruce, OF, Reds: Here's the next big thing down on the farm to be aware of. Look past the strikeouts in Triple-A, because exciting things are happening on contact (.366 average, eight homers), and on the bases (seven steals). The Reds have a logjam of outfielders with the big club already, but Bruce is just one injury or trade away from having a spot. In deeper leagues, he's worth a speculation bench spot now.
Pitchers
BUY
Brian Wilson, SP, Giants: His walk rate continues to improve -- perhaps he was a little too nervous on the first few assignments -- and he's got more than enough stuff to miss bats (18 strikeouts over 17 innings). Wouldn't it be nice if he stuck as the Giants closer all season? Every year we see sleeper plays from losing clubs turn into valuable fantasy closers, continuing to prove that saves should always be acquired on a budget.
SELL
Randy Wolf, SP, Padres: He's been rocked in three of his last four turns, and over the last two starts we see nine walks against three strikeouts. Wolf has never been a long-term fantasy answer to begin with, so hopefully you made a pre-emptive strike here. Trade him, drop him, bench him, the answer will vary depending on your format and size of league; but you can't be starting him right now.
Todd Wellemeyer, SP, Cardinals: He's made nine tidy starts and I've been along for the ride in a few formats. But given that Wellemeyer has been a reliever for most of his career, when does the warning light come on? He's never thrown more than 80 innings in a big league season, so maybe it's time to take those pretty numbers (3.27 ERA, 1.13 ratio) and hunt for a trade.
HOLD
Ryan Franklin, SP, Cardinals: His 1.80 E.R.A. is more about luck than anything else, and his walk/strikeout rate (8:9) doesn't suggest closer stuff. If you're not missing bats or pounding the strike zone, how long can you really last in the ninth inning? Maybe Jason Isringhausen gets his closer gig back and maybe he doesn't, but Franklin doesn't look like a long-term solution. Keep Franklin for the time being if you're desperate in saves, but don't get into a heavy commitment. Closer-in-waiting Chris Perez is one step away in Louisville.
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May 14, 2008
By Michael Salfino
Some succubus is sapping the strength of the league's first basemen, once upon a time the game's most feared sluggers.
The list of struggling players spans all ages: Ryan Howard, Mark Teixeira, Carlos Pena, Carlos Delgado, Billy Butler, Miguel Cabrera, Prince Fielder, Paul Konerko, Todd Helton, Jim Thome, Travis Hafner, Frank Thomas and David Ortiz.
While Butler is in his second season and thus doesn't have a track record to gauge, the rest of our first baseman/DHs all are well below their career averages in OPS (on-base plus slugging percentage).
Through Tuesday's action, only Giambi has an OPS this year over .800 – and he's hitting .194. Howard, Hafner and Delgado are all under .700 – about 20 to 30 percent under projections.
Hafner and Delgado also suffered through noteworthy declines last year. It's been speculated that these plodding power hitters have "old man skills," to quote Bill James. The theory says that big, bulky guys don't age well in comparison to speedy players. Hafner's most similar players from the past include Jim Gentile and Boog Powell, who hit 26 and 59 career homers, respectively, after their age 30 season.
But I'm skeptical. Delgado will soon turn 36 but had a number of great seasons after age 30. And some players comparable to Delgado, most notably Fred McGriff and Thome, had peak-OPS seasons past Delgado's current age.
Yes, the circus leaves town eventually for everyone. There's a good chance now that Delgado is done. The same for Thome (37) and, most clearly, Thomas (40 this month).
Many point the finger at steroids, or rather lack of them, given the testing program. But they've been testing for them for years now.
Plus, swings of 10 percent in league home-run totals are common throughout baseball history. In the modern context, that means any season homer total between 4,800 and 5,800 should be considered normal. Individual results will widely vary.
This year, there are more homers in the NL than the AL, for the second year in a row. The average AL team is on pace for 138 homers, compared to 154 in the NL. Both figures would represent declines near enough to 10 percent from 2007.
I quarrel less with those who assume steroids work than with those who assume steroid testing works. If the former is true (as it appears to be), players can make so much more money figuring out ways to keep using. And they have manufacturers and dealers helping them.
There's no economic incentive for the testers to adapt, since they get paid regardless of the test result. And do you believe baseball really wants the rash of positive tests that an evolving testing program might produce?
Another factor may be the very cold spring nationwide. Hot air is less dense than cold air and thus offers less resistance to the ball in flight. And since water vapor is lighter than air, humidity has no detrimental effect. So a change for these sluggers might come with the weather.
Buy
Ryan Howard, Phillies: His decline is being rationalized by his poor strikeout rate (33 percent of at-bats). But it was 31 percent last year. The power is down (19 percent of fly balls are homers, 28 percent last year). He's hitting .230 on balls in play (BIP), about 100 points less than in '07. Expect the power and BIP rates to revert to 2007 levels.
Travis Hafner, Indians: It always pays to go against the crowd when speculating on players. Everyone has written Hafner off. But it makes little sense to me, given that he's only 31 and was a monster in 2005 and 2006. If it's steroid-related, expect him to figure out a workaround soon.
Miguel Cabrera, Tigers: All indicators are dramatically down. He hit .378 with runners in scoring position two years in a row and now clocks in at .195. His home park is no worse than last year's for homers. The line-drive decline (21 percent to 12) scares me, but he's just 25.
Hold
David Ortiz, Red Sox: The power, as measured by our fly-ball stat, is down, for the second straight year. Last year, his BIP average was .355 (league average is .300). This year, he's 100 points less. In 2006, his BIP average was .270, but he hit 54 homers (which are not in play) and thus elevated his average. Last year's high average was a fluke. Expect 30 homers and 120 ribbies, though, given his great lineup.
Prince Fielder, Brewers: His wife, Chanel, better forget about converting him to vegetarianism. Fielder's stats this year are protein deficient – homers on 10.6 percent of fly balls versus 24 percent less year. Get him some bratwurst, pronto.
Sell
Paul Konerko, White Sox: I'd wait for the inevitable big game or, preferably, week. Then broom him due to his increasing ground-ball rate. He's up to about 50 percent grounders, which is extreme in the wrong direction for a supposed power hitter.
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By David Ferris
All rankings assume 5x5 format (wins, saves, strikeouts, ERA, ratio).
* = check status
Last Update: 5/13
Next Update: 5/20
Starting Pitchers
1. Johan Santana, Mets
2. Brandon Webb, Diamondbacks
NOTE: Most underrated ace in the business.
3. Jake Peavy, Padres
4. Cole Hamels, Phillies
5. Dan Haren, Diamondbacks
6. Tim Lincecum, Giants
7. Josh Beckett, Red Sox
8. C.C. Sabathia, Indians
9. Felix Hernandez, Mariners
10. Daisuke Matsuzaka, Red Sox
11. Carlos Zambrano, Cubs
12. Adam Wainwright, Cardinals
13. Javier Vazquez, White Sox
14. Aaron Harang, Reds
15. Justin Verlander, Tigers
16. Roy Halladay, Blue Jays
17. James Shields, Rays
18. *Scott Kazmir, Rays
19. John Maine, Mets
20. Dustin McGowan, Blue Jays
NOTE: Stuff is there, command sometimes lacks.
21. Erik Bedard, Mariners
22. Matt Cain, Giants
23. Roy Oswalt, Astros
24. Chris Young, Padres
25. Fausto Carmona, Indians
26. Brad Penny, Dodgers
27. Tim Hudson, Braves
28. Cliff Lee, Indians
29. *John Lackey, Angels
30. Ian Snell, Pirates
31. Chien-Ming Wang, Yankees
32. *John Smoltz, Braves
NOTE: Likely to come back as closer.
33. Derek Lowe, Dodgers
34. Ervin Santana, Angels
35. Brett Myers, Phillies
36. Zack Greinke, Royals
37. Oliver Perez, Mets
38. Ben Sheets, Brewers
39. Johnny Cueto, Reds
40. Edinson Volquez, Reds
41. A.J. Burnett, Blue Jays
42. Ted Lilly, Cubs
43. Scott Olsen, Marlins
NOTE: ERA not supported by K/BB rate.
44. Chad Billingsley, Dodgers
45. Jered Weaver, Angels
NOTE: Too many of his mistakes go over the fence.
46. Clay Buchholz, Red Sox
47. Brian Bannister, Royals
48. Shaun Marcum, Blue Jays
49. Gil Meche, Royals
50. Randy Johnson, Diamondbacks
51. Joe Blanton, Athletics
52. *Pedro Martinez, Mets
53. Jair Jurrjens, Braves
NOTE: Deserved a better fate Monday.
54. Boof Bonser, Twins
55. Jonathan Sanchez, Giants
56. Dana Eveland, Athletics
57. Andy Pettitte, Yankees
58. Max Scherzer, Diamondbacks
NOTE: Nasty stuff but loud mechanics.
59. Jeff Francis, Rockies
60. Micah Owings, Diamondbacks
61. Shawn Hill, Senators
62. Tom Gorzelanny, Pirates
63. Manny Parra, Brewers
64. Matt Garza, Rays
65. Greg Smith, Athletics
66. Randy Wolf, Padres
NOTE: Did you sell him yet?
67. *Scott Baker, Twins
68. Todd Wellemeyer, Cardinals
69. Carlos Villanueva, Brewers
70. Rich Harden, Athletics
71. Hiroki Kuroda, Dodgers
72. John Danks, White Sox
73. Bronson Arroyo, Reds
74. Nick Blackburn, Twins
75. Daniel Cabrera, Orioles
NOTE: Nice run, but division will be taxing.
76. Joe Saunders, Angels
77. Justin Duchscherer, Athletics
78. *Jake Westbrook, Indians
79. Jon Garland, Angels
80. Jeremy Bonderman, Tigers
81. Andy Sonnanstine, Rays
82. Homer Bailey, Reds
83. Greg Maddux, Padres
84. *Francisco Liriano, Twins
85. Paul Maholm, Pirates
86. Kyle Lohse, Cardinals
87. Mark Buehrle, White Sox
88. Jeremy Guthrie, Orioles
89. Mike Mussina, Yankees
90. Tim Redding, Senators
91. Ubaldo Jimenez, Rockies
92. Tim Wakefield, Red Sox
93. Jesse Litsch, Blue Jays
94. Garrett Olsen, Orioles
95. Gavin Floyd, White Sox
96. Darrell Rasner, Yankees
NOTE: Solid chance to stick in rotation.
97. Jon Lester, Red Sox
98. Odalis Perez, Senators
99. Andrew Miller, Marlins
100. *Wandy Rodriguez, Astros
101. John Lannan, Senators
102. Zach Duke, Pirates
NOTE: No strikeouts means no interest.
103. Kevin Slowey, Twins
104. *Dontrelle Willis, Tigers
105. Adam Loewen, Orioles
106. Miguel Batista, Mariners
107. Edwin Jackson, Rays
108. Jarrod Washburn, Mariners
109. Hong-Chih Kuo, Dodgers
110. *Phil Hughes, Yankees
Relief Pitchers
1. Jonathan Papelbon, Red Sox
2. Mariano Rivera, Yankees
3. Billy Wagner, Mets
NOTE: Still as nasty as ever.
4. Joe Nathan, Twins
5. Takashi Saito, Dodgers
6. Joakim Soria, Royals
7. J.J. Putz, Mariners
8. Francisco Rodriguez, Angels
9. Bobby Jenks, White Sox
10. Francisco Cordero, Reds
11. Kevin Gregg, Marlins
12. Jose Valverde, Astros
13. Matt Capps, Pirates
14. George Sherrill, Orioles
15. Todd Jones, Tigers
16. Brad Lidge, Phillies
17. Brian Wilson, Giants
NOTE: Even mediocre clubs can support a closer.
18. Huston Street, Athletics
19. Kerry Wood, Cubs
20. Troy Percival, Rays
21. Brandon Lyon, Diamondbacks
22. Trevor Hoffman, Padres
23. C.J. Wilson, Rangers
NOTE: Spotty of late but no one is pushing.
24. Rafael Betancourt, Indians
25. B.J. Ryan, Blue Jays
26. Ryan Franklin, Cardinals
NOTE: Will hold job while Izzy is fixed.
27. Brian Fuentes, Rockies
28. Jon Rauch, Senators
29. Guillermo Mota, Brewers
NOTE: Stands at the head of committee.
30. Manny Acosta, Braves
31. *Joe Borowski, Indians
32. Heath Bell, Padres
33. Joba Chamberlain, Yankees
34. Jonathan Broxton, Dodgers
35. Jason Isringhausen, Cardinals
36. Santiago Casilla, Athletics
NOTE: Just one star in loaded bullpen.
37. Eric Gagne, Brewers
38. Joey Devine, Athletics
39. Salomon Torres, Brewers
40. *Rafael Soriano, Braves
41. Carlos Marmol, Cubs
42. Chad Qualls, Diamondbacks
43. Doug Brocail, Astros
44. Scot Shields, Angels
45. Scott Downs, Blue Jays
46. Joaquin Benoit, Rangers
47. Tyler Walker, Giants
48. *Chad Cordero, Senators
49. Dan Wheeler, Rays
50. Tom Gordon, Phillies
51. Hideki Okajima, Red Sox
52. Jeremy Accardo, Blue Jays
53. Manuel Corpas, Rockies
54. David Riske, Brewers
55. Tony Pena, Diamondbacks
56. Blaine Boyer, Braves
57. Leo Nunez, Royals
NOTE: Live arm but Soria isn't yielding.
58. Andrew Brown, Athletics
59. Brian Bruney, Yankees
60. Pat Neshek, Twins
61. Renyel Pinto, Marlins
62. Bob Howry, Cubs
63. Aaron Heilman, Mets
64. Duaner Sanchez, Mets
65. Jesse Carlson, Blue Jays
66. Scott Linebrink, White Sox
67. Octavio Dotel, White Sox
68. Juan Cruz, Diamondbacks
69. John Grabow, Pirates
70. Masa Kobayashi, Indians
71. Pedro Feliciano, Mets
72. Matt Lindstrom, Marlins
73. Matt Guerrier, Twins
74. Mike Wuertz, Cubs
75. Jason Frasor, Blue Jays
76. Mark Lowe, Mariners
NOTE: All over the place right now.
77. Anthony Reyes, Cardinals
78. Justin Speier, Angels
79. Cla Meredith, Padres
80. Mike Gonzalez, Braves
81. Alan Embree, Athletics
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By David Ferris
All rankings assume 5x5 format (average, runs, homers, RBIs, stolen bases).
* = check status
Last Update: 5/13
Next Update: 5/20
First Base/DH
1. Albert Pujols, Cardinals
2. Prince Fielder, Brewers
3. David Ortiz, Red Sox
4. Ryan Howard, Phillies
5. Adrian Gonzalez, Padres
6. Lance Berkman, Astros
7. *Mark Teixeira, Braves
NOTE: Tweaked his back Monday.
8. Justin Morneau, Twins
9. Derrek Lee, Cubs
10. Carlos Guillen, Tigers
11. Conor Jackson, Diamondbacks
12. Carlos Pena, Rays
13. James Loney, Dodgers
14. Travis Hafner, Indians
15. Paul Konerko, White Sox
16. Casey Kotchman, Angels
17. Jim Thome, White Sox
18. Kevin Youkilis, Red Sox
19. *Mike Jacobs, Marlins
20. Joey Votto, Reds
NOTE: Even Dusty can't deny him ABs.
21. Adam LaRoche, Pirates
22. Carlos Delgado, Mets
23. Billy Butler, Royals
24. Todd Helton, Rockies
25. *Gary Sheffield, Tigers
26. Frank Thomas, Athletics
27. Daric Barton, Athletics
28. Kevin Millar, Orioles
29. Nick Johnson, Nationals
30. Jason Giambi, Yankees
31. Richie Sexson, Mariners
NOTE: Finally hit something - in a brawl.
32. Lyle Overbay, Blue Jays
33. Ryan Garko, Indians
34. Ross Gload, Royals
35. Ben Broussard, Rangers
Second Base
1. Chase Utley, Phillies
2. Brandon Phillips, Reds
3. Brian Roberts, Orioles
4. Ian Kinsler, Rangers
5. Robinson Cano, Yankees
6. Dan Uggla, Marlins
NOTE: Grossly underrated for three years.
7. Rickie Weeks, Brewers
8. Dustin Pedroia, Red Sox
9. Kelly Johnson, Braves
10. Aaron Hill, Blue Jays
11. *Howie Kendrick, Angels
12. Ryan Theriot, Cubs
13. *Mark Ellis, Athletics
14. *Orlando Hudson, Diamondbacks
15. Kaz Matsui, Astros
16. Jeff Kent, Dodgers
17. Placido Polanco, Tigers
18. Akinori Iwamura, Rays
NOTE: No heavy cats, but does hit leadoff.
19. Jose Lopez, Mariners
20. *Freddy Sanchez, Pirates
21. Mark DeRosa, Cubs
22. Clint Barmes, Rockies
23. *Luis Castillo, Mets
24. Adam Kennedy, Cardinals
25. Asdrubal Cabrera, Indians
26. Eugenio Velez,, Giants
27. Brendan Harris, Twins
28. *Ray Durham, Giants
29. Tad Iguchi, Padres
30. Mark Grudzielanek, Royals
Shortstop
1. Hanley Ramirez, Marlins
NOTE: Best offensive player in MLB?
2. Jose Reyes, Mets
3. Jimmy Rollins, Phillies
4. Derek Jeter, Yankees
5. Miguel Tejada, Astros
6. Michael Young, Rangers
7. Edgar Renteria, Tigers
8. Yunel Escobar, Braves
9. Orlando Cabrera, White Sox
10. Jhonny Peralta, Indians
11. *Rafael Furcal, Dodgers
NOTE: Down with strained lower back.
12. Stephen Drew, Diamondbacks
13. Khalil Greene, Padres
14. Bobby Crosby, Athletics
15. Julio Lugo, Red Sox
16. Felipe Lopez, Nationals
17. J.J. Hardy, Brewers
18. Cristian Guzman, Nationals
19. Yuniesky Betancourt, Mariners
20. Jeff Keppinger, Reds
21. Maicer Izturis, Angels
22. Erick Aybar, Angels
23. *Troy Tulowitzki, Rockies
24. *David Eckstein, Blue Jays
25. *Jack Wilson, Pirates
26. Cesar Izturis, Cardinals
27. *Alex Gonzalez, Reds
28. Adam Everett, Twins
29. *Omar Vizquel, Giants
30. Tony Pena, Royals
31. Luis Hernandez, Orioles
Third Base
1. David Wright, Mets
2. *Alex Rodriguez, Yankees
3. Miguel Cabrera, Tigers
4. Ryan Braun, Brewers
NOTE: No sophomore slump here.
5. Chipper Jones, Braves
NOTE: He'll win batting title if healthy.
6. Aramis Ramirez, Cubs
7. Garrett Atkins, Rockies
8. Alex Gordon, Royals
NOTE: Stash him now before he's unaffordable.
9. *Chone Figgins, Angels
10. Adrian Beltre, Mariners
11. Ryan Zimmerman, Nationals
12. Evan Longoria, Rays
13. Kevin Kouzmanoff, Padres
14. Mike Lowell, Red Sox
15. Edwin Encarnacion, Reds
16. Joe Crede, White Sox
17. Ty Wigginton, Astros
18. Jorge Cantu, Marlins
NOTE: Cannot? Cantu.
19. Pedro Feliz, Phillies
20. Scott Rolen, Blue Jays
21. *Chad Tracy, Diamondbacks
22. Mark Reynolds, Diamondbacks
NOTE: Whiffing a ton and here comes Tracy.
23. Melvin Mora, Orioles
24. Troy Glaus, Cardinals
25. Casey Blake, Indians
26. Jose Bautista, Pirates
27. *Hank Blalock, Rangers
28. *Eric Chavez, Athletics
29. Mike Lamb, Twins
Outfield
1. Matt Holliday, Rockies
2. Carl Crawford, Rays
NOTE: Hasn't tapped ceiling yet.
3. Vladimir Guerrero, Angels
4. Grady Sizemore, Indians
5. Ichiro Suzuki, Mariners
6. Nick Markakis, Orioles
7. Alex Rios, Blue Jays
8. Carlos Lee, Astros
9. Manny Ramirez, Red Sox
10. B.J. Upton, Rays
11. Alfonso Soriano, Cubs
12. Magglio Ordonez, Tigers
13. Carlos Beltran, Mets
14. Curtis Granderson, Tigers
15. Torii Hunter, Angels
16. Michael Bourn, Astros
NOTE: Better in fantasy than in real life.
17. Matt Kemp, Dodgers
18. Adam Dunn, Reds
19. Josh Hamilton, Rangers
20. Corey Hart, Brewers
21. Jacoby Ellsbury, Red Sox
22. Eric Byrnes, Diamondbacks
23. Hunter Pence, Astros
24. Bobby Abreu, Yankees
25. Chris Young, Diamondbacks
26. Johnny Damon, Yankees
27. Jeff Francoeur, Braves
28. Kosuke Fukudome, Cubs
29. Nate McLouth, Pirates
30. Pat Burrell, Phillies
31. Michael Cuddyer, Twins
32. Hideki Matsui, Yankees
33. Justin Upton, Diamondbacks
34. Raul Ibanez, Mariners
35. *Vernon Wells, Blue Jays
36. Jermaine Dye, White Sox
37. Brad Hawpe, Rockies
38. Fred Lewis, Giants
NOTE: Team didn't realize the talent here.
39. Shane Victorino, Phillies
40. Aaron Rowand, Giants
41. Jeremy Hermida, Marlins
42. Jason Bay, Pirates
43. Rick Ankiel, Cardinals
44. Carlos Quentin, White Sox
45. Nick Swisher, White Sox
46. Xavier Nady, Pirates
47. Mike Cameron, Brewers
48. Ryan Church, Mets
49. *Josh Willingham, Marlins
50. Luke Scott, Orioles
51. Ken Griffey, Reds
NOTE: Let's see a second act in Seattle.
52. Melky Cabrera, Yankees
53. Carlos Gomez, Twins
54. Willy Taveras, Rockies
55. Delmon Young, Twins
56. Andre Ethier, Dodgers
57. Bill Hall, Brewers
58. Aubrey Huff, Orioles
59. Ryan Ludwick, Cardinals
60. Moises Alou, Mets
61. Jose Guillen, Royals
NOTE: Bat coming around; act now.
62. Mark Teahen, Royals
63. Skip Schumaker, Cardinals
64. Lastings Milledge, Nationals
65. Austin Kearns, Nationals
66. Adam Jones, Orioles
67. Ryan Freel, Reds
68. Gary Matthews, Angels
69. David DeJesus, Royals
70. Jack Cust, Athletics
71. *Jay Bruce, Reds
NOTE: Tearing it up in the minors.
72. J.D. Drew, Red Sox
73. Randy Winn, Giants
74. Coco Crisp, Red Sox
NOTE: Deserves to be playing every day.
75. Chris Duncan, Cardinals
76. Emil Brown, Athletics
77. *Milton Bradley, Rangers
78. Juan Pierre, Dodgers
79. Geoff Jenkins, Phillies
80. Scott Podsednik, Rockies
81. Jason Kubel, Twins
82. Matt Diaz, Braves
83. Andruw Jones, Dodgers
84. Jonny Gomes, Rays
85. Gregor Blanco, Braves
86. Corey Patterson, Reds
87. Cliff Floyd, Rays
88. Garret Anderson, Angels
89. *Travis Buck, Athletics
90. Brian Giles, Padres
91. David Murphy, Rangers
92. Jayson Werth, Phillies
93. Scott Hairston, Padres
94. Reed Johnson, Cubs
95. Joey Gathright, Royals
96. Brandon Boggs, Rangers
NOTE: Free-swinging ways won't work forever.
97. Jody Gerut, Padres
98. Wily Mo Pena, Nationals
99. Matt Stairs, Blue Jays
Catchers
1. Victor Martinez, Indians
NOTE: Pretty average but where's the power?
2. Brian McCann, Braves
3. Russell Martin, Dodgers
4. Joe Mauer, Twins
5. Bengie Molina, Giants
6. Ryan Doumit, Pirates
7. Kenji Johjima, Mariners
8. Geovany Soto, Cubs
9. A.J. Pierzynski, White Sox
10. *Jorge Posada, Yankees
11. Kurt Suzuki, Athletics
12. Ivan Rodriguez, Tigers
13. Mike Napoli, Angels
14. Jason Varitek, Red Sox
15. J.R. Towles, Astros
16. Ramon Hernandez, Orioles
17. Dioner Navarro, Rays
NOTE: Building off strong 2007 finish.
18. Jeff Mathis, Angels
19. Chris Snyder, Diamondbacks
20. Yadier Molina, Cardinals
21. Josh Bard, Padres
22. Carlos Ruiz, Phillies
23. Rod Barajas, Blue Jays
24. John Buck, Royals
25. Chris Iannetta, Rockies
26. Gerald Laird, Rangers
27. Gregg Zaun, Blue Jays
28. Yorvit Torrealba, Rockies
29. Ronny Paulino, Pirates
30. Jose Molina, Yankees
31. Dave Ross, Reds
32. Brian Schneider, Mets
33. Kelly Shoppach, Indians
34. Jason Kendall, Brewers
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May 9, 2008
By David Ferris
Sell a player who just hit for the cycle? Buy a slumping outfielder who's south of the Mendoza Line? It's all about keeping you ahead of the curve in this edition of the American League stock watch.
Pitchers
BUY
Santiago Casilla, RP, Athletics: A lot of pundits point to Joey Devine as the likely successor to Huston Street, but don't overlook Casilla. He was called upon to close a game earlier this week, and his 2008 line is almost too good to be true (17.1 scoreless innings, nine hits, three walks, 21 strikeouts). Given the overall depth of the Oakland bullpen, I'll be stunned if Street is still by the bay come the end of August.
Darrell Rasner, SP, Yankees: He mowed them down over five Triple-A turns (0.87 E.R.A., 6 walks, 27 strikeouts), then kept the ball rolling with six sharp innings against the Mariners. Get out the Post-Hype Sleeper list, it's time to add another entry. Just don't get too happy with the pencil, because I'm not ready to buy into Kei Igawa (trying to do surgery with velocity in the 80s).
SELL
Jeremy Bonderman, SP, Tigers: I don't see how anyone can be optimistic on the Bonderman file. He's striking out a paltry 4.8 batters per nine innings, his walk rate has doubled, he's allowing more homers than ever, and luck can't be blamed (.266 BABIP). Perhaps the Tigers are paying for the heavy use Bonderman got early in his career.
Jered Weaver, SP, Angels: His control is basically the same it's always been, but he's missing less bats (less than six strikeouts per nine innings) and too many balls are flying out of the park (seven homers over 46 innings). At the end of the day, Weaver might merely be a No. 3-4 starter for the Angels, not a lead dog at the top of the rotation.
HOLD
Clay Buchholz, SP, Red Sox: He's been knocked around a couple of times, big deal -- the Tigers and the Yankees chase a lot of pitchers. Buchholz has command of three good pitches and he's quietly striking out more than a batter per inning. The ride will smooth out soon enough.
Hitters
BUY
Jose Guillen, OF, Royals: He got a day off in the middle of the week to watch some tape and clear his head, and it paid immediate dividends Thursday when Guillen banged out three hits (including two doubles) and scored two runs. His .220 average on balls in play is a giant fluke; see if the frustrated Guillen owner in your league is ready to make a swap. Assuming the Royals are patient, Guillen is still capable of matching the fine numbers he posted in Seattle last year (.290-23-99).
SELL
Carlos Gomez, OF, Twins: The cycle and the 13 steals, they make for a nifty little story, but Gomez is hitting on borrowed time with that putrid batting eye (three walks, 31 strikeouts). Now is the best time to sell him in a redraft league; that .279 average won't be around long.
HOLD
Johnny Damon, OF, Yankees: His throwing arm left the building years ago, but Damon is still a dynamic player if the subject is offense (26 runs, five homers, five steals). He's still got a keen eye at the plate (19 walks), so there's no batting-average risk here. If Damon can stay in one piece, you might get 110 runs, 20 homers and 25 steals at the cashier's window.
Posted by Mike McDermott at 5:00 PM | Permalink
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By Rob Steingall
These recommendations are only for the fantasy week May 12-18, unless otherwise suggested.
AMERICAN LEAGUE
Put 'em in
Kevin Youkilis, 1B/3B, Red Sox: Not usually known for his power, Youkilis has blasted four homers this week, to go along with his consistently stellar on-base percentage. He should be able to feast on the Twins, Orioles and Brewers pitching staffs this week. Youkilis hit six home runs last May with an average of .406, a sign of future success going forward.
Vicente Padilla, SP, Rangers: Padilla is coming off another brilliant outing against the Mariners, where he pitched seven scoreless innings while striking out eight. He's pitched 13 innings against the Mariners this season, yielding only one earned run while posting a 12/5 strikeout-to-walk ratio. He'll face the Mariners again on Monday, and finish the week with the Astros at home, where he's pitched very well this year (2.40 E.R.A.).
Bench 'em
Nick Swisher, 1B/OF, White Sox: A major breakout candidate entering the season, Swisher has done nothing but disappoint his owners to this point, batting just above .200 going into the weekend with only three home runs. He was recently bumped from the leadoff spot to the sixth spot in the White Sox batting order, with the hope of taking some of the pressure off him. Swisher hit .333 last May, but needs to be benched until he shows that kind of production again.
Jeremy Bonderman, SP, Tigers: Bonderman gets only one start this week, against the Diamondbacks, who currently boast the best record in the National League. He got beat up by the National League last year, giving up 13 earned runs in 17 innings pitched, including four home runs.
NATIONAL LEAGUE
Put 'em in
Ryan Church, OF, Mets: Church has started the year on fire, batting well over .300 with some power (six home runs entering the weekend), shifting between the two and five spots in the batting order. He faces the Nationals to start the week, against whom he has a .364 batting average thus far. Later in the week, Church will face the Yankees, who have problems in their rotation.
Randy Wolf, SP, Padres: Wolf gets two starts this week, against the Cubs and the Mariners, both on the road. Wolf went six strong innings last season against the Cubs without yielding a run, striking out five batters in the process. He also gets a Seattle club struggling hit the ball (.247 team batting average).
Bench 'em
Ken Griffey Jr., OF, Reds: Griffey has hit a rough patch recently, failing to drive in a run for two weeks with only two runs over that stretch. Although Reds GM Walt Jocketty has stated he hasn't had talks with other teams, trade rumors have begun to swirl around the future Hall of Famer, which could be adding to his struggles at the plate. He faces the Marlins this week, a team he hit only .217 against in '07, and closes with the Indians over the weekend.
Oliver Perez, SP, Mets: After a bounce-back year in '07, Perez looks to have lost whatever confidence led him to a career-high 15 wins. Control has been a huge issue for the Mets' left hander, who has posted a WHIP of 1.63 in 35 innings of work. He's failed to make it through more than six innings in any of his seven starts and faces the Yankees this week, whom he pitched well against last year. But he figures to be a huge risk based on his body of work thus far in '08.
Posted by Mike McDermott at 3:24 PM | Permalink
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