Projo Fantasy Sports Blog

By David Ferris

Before you launch head-first into the first week of the NFL season, let's tackle some AL stocks and keep you on course in the marathon of fantasy games.

Batters

BUY

Adam Jones, OF, Orioles: He was raking before the foot injury and the rehab went quickly and smoothly, so by all means let's run him out there for the final month. Seattle fans are going to rue the Jones trade the way Mets fans view the Scott Kazmir debacle.

Carlos Pena, 1B, Rays: His power came back in a big way in the second half (13 homers), and the .265 average is artificially low (the walk-strikeout rate suggests a much better number). Pena didn't match his dynamic 2007 season, but in a lot of ways he validated it; I'll gladly bid the extra buck on this guy next spring.

SELL

Carlos Quentin, OF, White Sox: He's headed toward wrist surgery and probably done for the season. In a keeper league, accept 50 to 60 cents on the dollar if you can win in 2008; worry about next year next year.

HOLD

Dustin Pedroia, OF, Red Sox: He'll probably be overpriced next year, but for the balance of 2008, enjoy the ride. The average is real, the power is probably a fluke, and the steals won't stay forever. But this is a $20 player into the new decade.

Curtis Granderson, OF, Tigers: He's been the AL's best table setters in the second half (.324 average, 35 walks, 49 runs, 1.002 OPS), often being driven in by the surging Miguel Cabrera. Detroit has a lot to fix on the mound in 2009, but this is still going to be a dynamic lineup. Granderson is starting to hang in better against lefties, his last hurdle before he hits superstardom.

Pitchers

BUY

Ervin Santana, SP, Angels: We always knew about the electric fastball and the nasty slider; it was just a matter of confidence here, and getting over the mental block of winning on the road. Santana hasn't dropped a game since late July, and he's piled up 56 strikeouts against seven walks over his last seven turns; the emergence is complete. You can make the argument that Santana has been the best pitcher in the OC this year, not the overrated guy closing all the wins out.

SELL

Fausto Carmona, SP, Indians: He's never going to be a big punchout guy, but when he walks more than he strikes out, it's a red flag - he doesn't have command of his power sinker. Give Carmona a long look in March to see if the Indians are able to rebuild his mechanics, and flush out the memories of the nightmare 2008.

HOLD

Scott Baker, SP, Twins: His strikeout rate has dipped of late, but we can accept that given the mild uptick in his control, and more balls staying in the park. I like Minnesota's schedule down the stretch, especially now that the two-weeks-of-hell road trip is over. Baker should be priced for a nifty 2009 discount, given all the attention paid to teammates Kevin Slowey and Francisco Liriano.

By Rob Steingall

These recommendations are only for the fantasy week Sept. 8 to 14, unless otherwise suggested.

AMERICAN LEAGUE

Put 'em in

Shin-Shoo Choo, OF, Indians: After battling back from injury last season, he's really found his stride, batting .376 over the past month with five homers and 21 runs scored. He'll be facing the Royals and the Orioles this week, two pitching staffs not known for their dominance in '08. He's an under-the-radar guy who could have an effect come playoff time in your fantasy league.

Carl Pavano, SP, Yankees: This man should get tire marks tattooed all over his body, since he's been tossed under the bus by the New York fans and media for the better part of the past four years. Miraculously though, he's won two of his first three starts, and gets another two turns this week against the Angels and the Rays. He's pitching for a contract now, and has limited time to establish his value, so expect spirited performances against two of the AL's best squads.

Bench 'em

Victor Martinez, C/1B, Indians: Still trying to work his way back from elbow surgery, the Indians backstop has collected only three hits in his first 15 at bats since returning from the DL, and has gotten frequent days off. Down the stretch, you just can't rely on him, name value or not. With his team out of it, there is no need to rush him back into full-time duty.

James Shields, SP: With the Rays coming down the home stretch and preparing for the playoffs, there is a good chance they'll begin to rest their ace to keep his arm fresh for October. He'll get a lone start on the road against the Yankees this week, where his ERA is a lofty 5.84 this season. Monitor his workload going forward, especially if the Rays have things all sewn up by the end of this week.

NATIONAL LEAGUE

Put 'em in

Chris Dickerson, OF, Reds: He's been great since his promotion on Aug. 12, batting .320 with six homers and 12 RBIs, along with five steals. Guys who put up numbers across the board in fantasy are like striking gold, and this shiny new name could still be had if you act fast.

Greg Maddux, SP, Dodgers: This cagey veteran gets two turns this week, against the Padres and the Rockies, both on the road. His ERA at Petco Park this season is 2.62, so you can bank on him giving you quality ratios this scoring period. These offenses have been wildly inconsistent this season, making the play here much more attractive.

Bench 'em

Pat Burrell, OF, Phillies: With the Mets surging as of late, this Phillies slugger has done nothing but spin his tires trying to put it in gear, hitting .183 over the past month with only three long balls. That is just unacceptable from a power guy, especially one who plays half his game in the launching pad that is Citizens Bank Park. He faces the Marlins and the Brewers at home this week, two of the better pitching teams in the NL. Dump him now while you still have a season to play for.

Todd Wellemeyer, SP, Cardinals: A lone matchup this week against the Pirates looks favorable for him. But if you dig a bit deeper, you'll find an ugly 5.84 ERA as PNC Park this season. His K/9 rate of 6.2 isn't terrible, but he's likely to fall well short in that category with only one turn this week. Grab a two-start guy in his place if you can.

By David Ferris

Also-rans checked out awhile ago, but Fantasy Champions stay locked in for six months. You'll get better gas mileage on your plays this month, because half of the room is looking at football right now. Stay the course; let's get you where you want to be.

Batters

BUY

Andre Ethier, OF, Dodgers: He's carrying a .321/.385/.670 line with eight homers over the last five weeks, hitting in front of Manny Ramirez. The debate on lineup protection might never be truly be settled, but Ethier's 25 runs over his last 26 games certainly is tied to the lineup position.

Pablo Sandoval, C, Giants: His bat (.353 average in August, .529 slugging) gets him regular time at first and third, and his catcher eligibility makes him a fantasy boon for fantasy players struggling at the spot.

SELL

Pat Burrell, OF, Phillies: The swing has gotten a little leaky over the last month (.183 average, just three homers), and his defense costs him a few at-bats every week as Charlie Manuel is quick to grab a different glove in left field.

Josh Willingham, OF, Marlins: You have to wonder if he's over the wrist injury or because he looked lost in August (.210 average, .395 slugging, 22 strikeouts). He's in the "prove it" file until further notice.

HOLD

Elijah Dukes, OF, Nationals: He's only been back for eight games but they've been packed with plenty of goodies (eight runs, six walks, two homers, three steals). He'll be a 20-20 player next year, easily, and the Washington address keeps the buzz down.

Pitchers

BUY

Joe Nelson, RP, Marlins: He's been the strongest option in the Florida bullpen all summer (1.69 ERA, 50 strikeouts in 42.2 IP), and that gets him into the closing committee while Kevin Gregg rehabs his leg injury. Matt Lindstrom has the future tag and greater expectation from HQ, but Fredi Gonzalez has to try to win every night, and Nelson currently is the best option when there's a late lead in the balance.

SELL

Dave Bush, SP, Brewers: For years he's been the poster child for the guy who underproduces his peripherals, but recently it's been the opposite (five quality turns in August, despite a flattening strikeout rate and a mild walk increase). Bush also serves up plenty of homers (two Wednesday to the Mets, 78 over three seasons); he's someone who can pitch well for a couple of weeks, and then undo all the progress in one afternoon. Remain skeptical.

HOLD

Adam Wainwright, SP, Cardinals: He's had three strong turns off the finger injury, so all systems go for the final four weeks. It would be nice if the ERA eventually creeps over three; it will help our price next week.

Roy Oswalt, SP, Astros: His strikeout rate is holding on and he's getting plenty of ground balls, which fueled a surprising revival in August (five wins, 1.59 ERA, 0.93 WHIP). Stay on board for the final scene.

By Mark P. Stopa

Time for the last preseason Stock Watch. Next week, we begin making the in-season adjustments so necessary to fantasy football success.

This week, we again note each player's ADP, or Average Draft Position, based on the results of hundreds of fantasy drafts conducted at MockDraftCentral.com. "Upgrades" means I like the player more than the market."Downgrades" are players overvalued. "No change" means the market is just about right.

Upgrades

Anquan Boldin, WR, Cardinals (ADP: 39): He's not as talented as teammate Larry Fitzgerald (ADP: 20). But starting QB Kurt Warner has always seemed to favor Boldin. As long as Warner is the QB, I'm not sure that Boldin's stats will be much different than Fitzgerald's.

Brandon Marshall, WR, Broncos (ADP: 35): What should we like more: he fact that Marshall is really good, that his QB, Jay Cutler, has a rocket arm and is expected to break out this year, or that Marshall's suspension just got reduced from three games to one? Pick one of those reasons and grab Marshall ahead of T.J. Houshmandzadeh (ADP: 23) and Steve Smith (ADP: 29), among others.

Dustin Keller, TE, Jets (ADP: 180): Brett Favre has always liked throwing to tight ends in the red zone. I'm sure you remember what Donald Lee did last year, or Bubba Franks before that, but don't forget Keith Jackson and Mark Chmura. The point is that there are not 18 better fantasy TEs than Keller, whom the Jets liked enough to take in the first round even before Favre came into the fold.

Kenny Watson, RB, Bengals (ADP: 143) Rudi Johnson's departure means that Chris Perry is all that stands between Watson and a starting gig. Perry has been injury-prone throughout his brief NFL career, making Watson a very attractive late-round selection. Of course, if you can get Perry and Watson, even better.

Martin Gramatica, K, Saints (ADP: ND): Can Gramatica ever again be a Pro Bowl-caliber kicker? Kicking for the high-scoring Saints, he won't need to be that in order to be a top 10 fantasy guy. He only needs to keep his job all season. Grab him on your waiver wire if you're in need.

No Change

Sleepers: With the abundance of information in the media about fantasy football, it's sometimes easy to read so many good things about certain players that you start to like them too much. Don't fall into this trap. A sleeper is only a "sleeper" if you get him for the right price. Ray Rice is a nice sleeper given the chance that Willis McGahee does not round into form after his injury, but if you have to draft Rice in the sixth round, then it defeats the purpose.

Downgrades

Bills skill players: Jason Peters is still holding out, with no end in sight. This means fewer running lanes for Marshawn Lynch, less time for Trent Edwards to throw and less time for Lee Evans to run under deep balls. At this point, even if Peters were to report today, it will take him awhile to get up to speed and to learn the new system. Unless and until Peters rounds into form, everyone on the Bills offense merits a downgrade.

Ravens skill players: The Ravens really seem to like Joe Flacco. But as a rookie QB, chances are that Flacco will struggle mightily, especially early in the season. Willis McGahee is still worth starting, but otherwise it's a wasteland in Baltimore.

Reggie Bush, RB, Saints: (ADP: 29): Some people think this is the year he breaks out. I think it's the year he cements his status as a draft bust. For me, he's like former Giants RB Dave Meggett, a third-down, scat-back type player. There's not necessarily anything wrong with that, and Meggett was a fine player; but that's not what the Saints thought they were getting with the second overall draft selection just a few years ago.

By Chad Lawton

Next Update: 9/6

Following are complete fantasy football rankings based on this week's matchups for all the major positions (QB, RB, WR, TE, K, team defense). They are based on a combined yardage/scoring system (4 points for a passing touchdown, 6 points for a rushing/receiving touchdown, one point for every 25 passing yards, one point for every 10 rushing/receiving yards).

Updated every Saturday in light of injury and other news from around the NFL.

* = check status

Quarterback
1. *Tom Brady, NE vs. KC
2. Tony Romo, DAL at CLE
NOTE: Entire offense is licking its chops.
3. *Donovan McNabb, PHI vs. STL
4. Drew Brees, NO vs. TB
5. *Peyton Manning, IND vs. CHI
6. *Derek Anderson, CLE vs. DAL
7. Kurt Warner, ARI at SF
8. Ben Roethlisberger, PIT vs. HOU
9. Eli Manning, NYG vs. WAS
10. *Carson Palmer, CIN at BAL
NOTE: Messy summer doesn't inspire confidence.
11. Jon Kitna, DET at ATL
NOTE: How bad can he be with those wideouts?
12. Matt Schaub, HOU at PIT
13. Brett Favre, NYJ at MIA
14. Philip Rivers, SD vs. CAR
15. Jay Cutler, DEN at OAK
16. *J.T. O'Sullivan, SF vs. ARI
NOTE: Mike Martz's most ambitious challenge yet.
17. David Garrard, JAC at TEN
18. *Marc Bulger, STL at PHI
19. *Matt Hasselbeck, SEA at BUF
20. Aaron Rodgers, GB vs. MIN
21. *Jake Delhomme, CAR at SD
22. *Jeff Garcia, TB at NO
23. *Vince Young, TEN vs. JAC
24. Chad Pennington, MIA vs. NYJ
25. JaMarcus Russell, OAK vs. DEN
26. Jason Campbell, WAS at NYG
NOTE: A mess the last two weeks.
27. Trent Edwards, BUF vs. SEA
28. Matt Ryan, ATL vs. DET
29. *Tarvaris Jackson, MIN at GB
30. Kyle Orton, CHI at IND
31. *Joe Flacco, BAL vs. CIN
32. Brodie Croyle, KC at NE

Running Back
1. LaDainian Tomlinson, SD vs. CAR
2. *Brian Westbrook, PHI vs. STL
3. Marion Barber, DAL at CLE
4. Joseph Addai, IND vs. CHI
5. Adrian Peterson, MIN at GB
6. Marshawn Lynch, BUF vs. SEA
NOTE: They'll pound the rock in all situations.
7. Frank Gore, SF vs. ARI
8. Michael Turner, ATL vs. DET
9. *Steven Jackson, STL at PHI
10. Brandon Jacobs, NYG vs. WAS
11. Clinton Portis, WAS at NYG
12. Willie Parker, PIT vs. HOU
13. Laurence Maroney, NE vs. KC
NOTE: Is he truly a lead back?
14. Thomas Jones, NYJ at MIA
NOTE: Line improved, but a sluggish summer.
15. *Maurice Jones-Drew, JAC at TEN
16. Earnest Graham, TB at NO
17. *Selvin Young, DEN at OAK
18. Larry Johnson, KC at NE
NOTE: Target on his back this week.
19. Ricky Williams, MIA vs. NYJ
20. *Ryan Grant, GB vs. MIN
NOTE: Yes, Minnesota's run-stopping is that good.
21. Matt Forte, CHI at IND
22. *Reggie Bush, NO vs. TB
23. Edgerrin James, ARI at SF
24. Jonathan Stewart, CAR at SD
NOTE: Too good not to take over sooner or later.
25. *Kevin Smith, DET at ATL
26. *Jamal Lewis, CLE vs. DAL
27. Fred Taylor, JAC at TEN
28. Darren McFadden, OAK vs. DEN
29. Chris Perry, CIN at BAL
30. Justin Fargas, OAK vs. DEN
31. DeAngelo Williams, CAR at SD
32. LenDale White, TEN vs. JAC
NOTE: A plodder all the way.
33. *Willis McGahee, BAL vs. CIN
34. *Ray Rice, BAL vs. CIN
35. Maurice Morris, SEA at BUF
NOTE: Bump 5-10 slots if he starts.
36. Julius Jones, SEA at BUF
37. Chris Johnson, TEN vs. JAC
NOTE: Worth the price of admission.
38. *Steve Slaton HOT at PIT
39. *Ronnie Brown, MIA vs. NYJ
40. Jerious Norwood, ATL vs. DET
41. *Ahman Green, HOU at PIT
42. Felix Jones, DAL at CLE
NOTE: He should get a sizeable role right away.
43. Ahmad Bradshaw, NYG vs. WAS
44. Andre Hall, DEN at OAK
45. Chester Taylor, MIN at GB
46. *Jason Wright, CLE vs. DAL
NOTE: Keep an eye on Lewis's status.
47. Rashard Mendenhall, PIT vs. HOU
48. *Chris Taylor, HOU at PIT
49. *Rudi Johnson, DET at ATL
50. Leon Washington, NYJ at MIA
NOTE: Will he get role he deserves?
51. Derrick Ward, NYG vs. WAS
52. Kenny Watson, CIN at BAL
53. Tim Hightower, ARI at SF
54. DeShaun Foster, SF vs. ARI
55. Lorenzo Booker, PHI vs. STL
56. Ladell Betts, WAS at NYG
57. LaMont Jordan, NE vs. KC
58. Sammy Morris, NE vs. KC
59. *Jerome Harrison, CLE vs. DAL
60. Pierre Thomas, NO vs. TB
61. Fred Jackson, BUF vs. SEA
62. Warrick Dunn, TB at NO
63. *Deuce McAllister, NO vs. TB
64. *Brandon Jackson, GB vs. MIN
65. Michael Pittman, DEN at OAK
66. *Kevin Jones, CHI at IND
67. Jacob Hester, SD vs. CAR
68. Darren Sproles, SD vs. CAR
69. Kolby Smith, KC at NE
70. Michael Bush, OAK vs. DEN
71. Jamaal Charles, KC at NE

Wide Receiver
1. Terrell Owens, DAL at CLE
NOTE: I'll be shocked if he doesn't score.
2. Randy Moss, NE vs. KC
3. *Braylon Edwards, CLE vs. DAL
4. Reggie Wayne, IND vs. CHI
5. Larry Fitzgerald, ARI at SF
6. Marques Colston, NO vs. TB
7. Andre Johnson, HOU at PIT
8. *Plaxico Burress, NYG vs. WAS
9. Wes Welker, NE vs. KC
NOTE: Not on initial injury report.
10. *Torry Holt, STL at PHI
11. *T.J. Houshmandzadeh, CIN at BAL
12. Santonio Holmes, PIT vs. HOU
13. Calvin Johnson, DET at ATL
NOTE: Here I am now, entertain me.
14. Roy Williams, DET at ATL
15. Anquan Boldin, ARI at SF
16. Greg Jennings, GB vs. MIN
17. Jerricho Cotchery, NYJ at MIA
18. Roddy White, ATL vs. DET
NOTE: Offense won't attack with rookie QB.
19. *Chad Johnson, CIN at BAL
20. Donald Driver, GB vs. MIN
21. *Joey Galloway, TB at NO
NOTE: Nothing this summer but he does own the matchup.
22. Hines Ward, PIT vs. HOU
23. Chris Chambers, SD vs. CAR
24. Dwayne Bowe, KC at NE
25. *Nate Burleson, SEA at BUF
26. *Marvin Harrison, IND vs. CHI
27. Lee Evans, BUF vs. SEA
28. Laveranues Coles, NYJ at MIA
29. Santana Moss, WAS at NYG
30. Vincent Jackson, SD vs. CAR
31. Sidney Rice, MIN at GB
NOTE: A shame he's not in a different offense.
32. Patrick Crayton, DAL at CLE
33. Anthony Gonzalez, IND vs. CHI
NOTE: A month for rust, and then watch out.
34. Justin Gage, TEN vs. JAC
35. Bernard Berrian, MIN at GB
36. Ronald Curry, OAK vs. DEN
37. Kevin Walter, HOU at PIT
NOTE: Very playable as your No. 3 most weeks.
38. *Reggie Williams, JAC at TEN
39. *Reggie Brown, PHI vs. STL
40. DeSean Jackson, PHI vs. STL
41. Ted Ginn, MIA vs. NYJ
NOTE: Has a shot with QB upgrade.
42. Jabar Gaffney, NE vs. KC
43. Isaac Bruce, SF vs. ARI
44. Muhsin Muhammad, CAR at SD
45. *Bryant Johnson, SF vs. ARI
46. Antonio Bryant, TB at NO
47. Derrick Mason, BAL vs. CIN
NOTE: Might have one sneaky year left.
48. *Javon Walker, OAK vs. DEN
49. Josh Morgan, SF vs. ARI
50. Mark Clayton, BAL vs. CIN
51. Ike Hilliard, TB at NO
52. Donte Stallworth, CLE vs. DAL
NOTE: Been overrated for years.
53. Devin Hester, CHI at IND
NOTE: I admit, I'm curious too.
54. Hank Baskett, PHI vs. STL
55. Eddie Royal, DEN at OAK
56. *James Jones, GB vs. MIN
57. *Drew Bennett, STL at PHI
58. Brandon Stokley, DEN at OAK
59. Robert Meachem, NO vs. TB
NOTE: Let him prove it once, first.
60. *Darrell Jackson, DEN at OAK
61. David Patten, NO vs. TB
62. *D.J. Hackett, CAR at SD
63. *Jerry Porter, JAC at TEN
64. Amani Toomer, NYG vs. WAS
65. Courtney Taylor, SEA at BUF
66. Marty Booker, CHI at IND
67. *Michael Jenkins, ATL vs. DET
68. James Hardy, BUF vs. SEA
69. Jordan Kent, SEA at BUF

Tight End
1. Jason Witten, DAL at CLE
2. Kellen Winslow, CLE vs. DAL
3. *Antonio Gates, SD vs. CAR
NOTE: The key to the entire offense.
4. Dallas Clark, IND vs. CHI
NOTE: He's used as an outside threat.
5. *Jeremy Shockey, NO vs. TB
6. Chris Cooley, WAS at NYG
7. Tony Gonzalez, KC at NE
8. Owen Daniels, HOU at PIT
9. *Todd Heap, BAL vs. CIN
10. Heath Miller, PIT vs. HOU
NOTE: Looks like a matchup he can score with.
11. Vernon Davis, SF vs. ARI
12. Alge Crumpler, TEN vs. JAC
13. Tony Scheffler, DEN at OAK
NOTE: Took a step back late in camp.
14. Ben Utecht, CIN at BAL
15. Zach Miller, OAK vs. DEN
NOTE: Best value TE play on board.
16. Donald Lee, GB vs. MIN
17. *L.J. Smith, PHI vs. STL
18. *John Carlson, SEA at BUF
19. *Ben Watson, NE vs. KC
20. *Greg Olsen, CHI at IND
21. Marcedes Lewis, JAC at TEN
22. Randy McMichael, STL at PHI
23. Kevin Boss, NYG vs. WAS
24. Dustin Keller, NYJ at MIA
25. Alex Smith, TB at NO
26. Leonard Pope, ARI at SF
27. Robert Royal, BUF vs. SEA

Kicker
1. Nate Kaeding, SD vs. CAR
2. Stephen Gostkowski, NE vs. KC
NOTE: Go where the points are.
3. Nick Folk, DAL at CLE
4. Josh Scobee, JAC at TEN
5. Adam Vinatieri, IND vs. CHI
6. Jeff Reed, PIT vs. HOU
7. David Akers, PHI vs. STL
8. Lawrence Tynes, NYG vs. WAS
9. Shayne Graham, CIN at BAL
10. Martin Gramatica, NO vs. TB
11. Mason Crosby, GB vs. MIN
12. Phil Dawson, CLE vs. DAL
13. Jason Hanson, DET at ATL
14. Neil Rackers, ARI at SF
15. Ryan Longwell, MIN at GB
16. Rob Bironas, TEN vs. JAC
17. Matt Stover, BAL vs. CIN
18. Kris Brown, HOU at PIT
19. Joe Nedney, SF vs. ARI
20. Jason Elam, ATL vs. DET
21. Robbie Gould, CHI at IND
NOTE: How can you trust his offense right now?
22. Josh Brown, STL at PHI
23. John Kasay, CAR at SD

Defense
1. New England vs. Kansas City
NOTE: Say cheese, Brodie.
2. San Diego vs. Carolina
3. New York Giants vs. Washington
4. Green Bay vs. Minnesota
5. Minnesota at Green Bay
6. Philadelphia vs. St. Louis
NOTE: Blitz packages will tee off on Bulger.
7. Buffalo vs. Seattle
8. Baltimore vs. Cincinnati
9. Dallas at Cleveland
10. Arizona at San Francisco
NOTE: Martz will expose his QB most weeks.
11. Jacksonville at Tennessee
12. Pittsburgh vs. Houston
13. Indianapolis vs. Chicago
NOTE: Stadium opener, and Orton matchup helps.
14. Tennessee vs. Jacksonville
15. Seattle at Buffalo
16. New York Jets at Miami
17. Denver at Oakland
18. Carolina at San Diego
19. New Orleans vs. Tampa Bay
20. San Francisco vs. Arizona
21. Oakland vs. Denver
22. Chicago at Indianapolis
23. Cincinnati at Baltimore
24. Houston at Pittsburgh
25. Detroit at Atlanta
26. Atlanta vs. Detroit
27. Washington at New York Giants
28. Miami vs. New York Jets
29. Tampa Bay at New Orleans
30. St. Louis at Philadelphia
31. Cleveland vs. Dallas
32. Kansas City at New England

By Michael Salfino

Luck is a different kind of four-letter word in baseball.

I'm not addressing it here in any way to diminish the almost god-like ability of all major league players. They're in the 99.9th percentile of baseball skill. I understand that if I saw the players who I consider to be baseball's worst at my local sandlot, their talent would make my jaw drop, that's how unreal it would seem to all of us mere baseball mortals.

But, once you get to the show, it's all relative. Sometimes we think that players have extreme years relative to career numbers or scouting projections because of significant changes in their ability or dedication. But I'm convinced it's mostly random.

One of my favorite books this year is "A Drunkard's Walk: How Randomness Rules Our Lives," by physicist Leonard Mlodinow - a big baseball fan. I noted in June how Mlodinow's worldview developed as a result of Roger Maris' outlying 1961 season, when he hit 61 homers to break Babe Ruth's single-season record. Mlodinow's point is that any random guy with plus-big league power has about a 3-percent chance of hitting 60-plus homers in a Strat-O-Matic sense. So over the course of many years of baseball history, someone was certain to eventually do this randomly. That person just happened to be 1961 Roger Maris.

Can anyone quarrel with the notion that at least a handful of the nearly 700 major league players (plus the many who shuffled on and off rosters) are certain to have been extremely lucky or unlucky in '08? In other words, their performance increases or declines can be attributed almost entirely to random chance.

There weren't any 1961 Marises this year. That's historic when it happens - just not for the reasons most of us think. But let's try to find those pitchers who were most unlucky, according to stats that I believe best isolate luck: average against on balls in play (BIP), percentage of baserunners stranded and rate of home runs on all fly balls allowed.

Next week, lucky pitchers. Then we close out the season with unlucky and lucky hitters, using some different metrics. Let's do away with the recommendations this week, though all of these guys would theoretically (Carlos Silva hedge) be "Buys" for 2009, assuming they have jobs - the major challenge for unlucky guys seeking a comeback. Baseball managers and executives generally refuse to accept the influence of chance because they'd rather believe in the supremacy of talent and their ability to control the fate of their teams (and their careers) by first identifying and then nurturing it.

Also, we're focusing on qualifying starters because sample sizes with relievers are too small. Thanks to Baseball Info Solutions for the data.

Carlos Silva, Mariners: No amount of better luck would make him worth his $48-million contract. But, in fairness, he's been victimized by a very high BIP (average on balls in play) rate (.339, average is about .300). And 39 percent of his baserunners have scored (average is 30 percent). Even with average luck, though, his ERA would still be near 5.00.

Nate Robertson, Tigers: Here's a guy I'd try to get cheap next year. The league's hitting .346 on BIP, two years ago versus him, .277. Of course, that's decreased his Left on Base (LOB) percentage - 34 percent have scored this year; 29 percent in '07.

Josh Beckett, Red Sox: He wasn't lucky on BIP last year (.304), but his .319 there hurts more in '08 because 13 percent of his fly balls allowed are homers, versus 9.7 percent in '07. Why do we think this is the pitcher's fault? Don't the hitters determine outcomes, too?

Ian Snell, Pirates: BIP averages since 2006: .314, .308 and .358 this year. I understand the Pirates' defense is bad, but there's a lot of bad luck here, too.

Jonathan Sanchez, Giants: Our friends at HardballTimes.com say his ERA this year with average luck/defense would be almost a full run lower than actual. Use that as your '09 baseline.

Bronson Arroyo, Reds: His left on base (LOB) percentage is OK. But the BIP (.318) and especially the rate of homers on fly balls (15.5 percent, average this year is 11.5) are extreme. You can blame him and/or the park, but Arroyo's rate was about 11 percent the last two years combined.

Aaron Harang, Reds: Similar to Arroyo: 15.8 percent of fly balls are homers this year. Prior three years: 9.4, 11.7, 10.6 percent.

Roy Oswalt, Astros: Getting killed by a homer rate (15 percent) nearly double what it was in preceding years. If he's easier to hit, why are the strikeouts up (7.3/9 innings)?

Justin Verlander, Tigers: We think intestinal fortitude allows pitchers to excel with runners on base. But I believe Verlander's all-time-low line drive rate proves an unfair number of bleeders and bloops are driving home 35 percent of baserunners (25 percent last year).

By David Ferris

All rankings assume 5x5 format (average, runs, homers, RBIs, stolen bases).

* = check status

Last Update: 9/2
Next Update: 9/9

First Base/DH
1. Mark Teixeira, Angels
NOTE: Season will be defined by October.
2. Miguel Cabrera, Tigers
3. Albert Pujols, Cardinals
4. Prince Fielder, Brewers
5. Lance Berkman, Astros
6. Justin Morneau, Twins
7. David Ortiz, Red Sox
8. Ryan Howard, Phillies
9. Carlos Pena, Rays
NOTE: Slugging star in second half.
10. Aubrey Huff, Orioles
NOTE: Don't pay for career year in March.
11. Adrian Gonzalez, Padres
12. Derrek Lee, Cubs
13. Carlos Delgado, Mets
14. Kevin Youkilis, Red Sox
15. Jason Giambi, Yankees
16. James Loney, Dodgers
17. Mike Jacobs, Marlins
18. Adam LaRoche, Pirates
19. Joey Votto, Reds
20. Casey Kotchman, Braves
21. Lyle Overbay, Blue Jays
22. Jim Thome, White Sox
23. Kevin Millar, Orioles
24. *Travis Hafner, Indians
25. Brian LaHair, Mariners
26. Paul Konerko, White Sox
27. Martin Prado, Braves

Second Base
1. Chase Utley, Phillies
2. Brian Roberts, Orioles
3. Dustin Pedroia, Red Sox
NOTE: Can't deny his second half.
4. Brandon Phillips, Reds
5. Dan Uggla, Marlins
6. Robinson Cano, Yankees
7. Mark DeRosa, Cubs
8. Alexei Ramirez, White Sox
9. Placido Polanco, Tigers
10. Jose Lopez, Mariners
11. Rickie Weeks, Brewers
12. Akinori Iwamura, Rays
NOTE: Underrated table setter in Tampa.
13. Omar Infante, Braves
14. Willie Harris, Nationals
NOTE: Swiss Army Knife has surprising utility.
15. *Kaz Matsui, Astros
16. *Howie Kendrick, Angels
17. *Mark Ellis, Athletics
18. Freddy Sanchez, Pirates
19. Ronnie Belliard, Nationals
20. Alexi Casilla, Twins
21. Kelly Johnson, Braves
22. Emilio Bonifacio, Nationals
23. Nick Punto, Twins
24. Luis Rodriguez, Padres
25. Blake DeWitt, Dodgers
NOTE: Steps in for injured Kent.
26. Aaron Miles, Cardinals
27. Luis Castillo, Mets
28. Joe Inglett, Blue Jays
29. Asdrubal Cabrera, Indians
30. Ramon Vazquez, Rangers
31. Eugenio Velez, Giants
32. Mark Loretta, Astros
33. Ray Durham, Brewers
34. Augie Ojeda, Diamondbacks
35. Brendan Harris, Twins
36. *Jeff Kent, Dodgers
NOTE: Knee surgery just about sinks season.

Shortstop
1. Hanley Ramirez, Marlins
2. Jose Reyes, Mets
3. Jimmy Rollins, Phillies
4. Ryan Theriot, Cubs
5. Derek Jeter, Yankees
6. Jhonny Peralta, Indians
7. *Mike Aviles, Royals
8. Michael Young, Rangers
9. Troy Tulowitzki, Rockies
10. Orlando Cabrera, White Sox
11. Stephen Drew, Diamondbacks
12. Miguel Tejada, Astros
NOTE: Power has disappeared.
13. Cristian Guzman, Nationals
NOTE: Pretty average, but empty elsewhere.
14. J.J. Hardy, Brewers
15. Yunel Escobar, Braves
16. Jed Lowrie, Red Sox
17. Edgar Renteria, Tigers
18. Erick Aybar, Angels
19. Nomar Garciaparra, Dodgers
20. Clint Barmes, Rockies
21. Jeff Keppinger, Reds
22. *Bobby Crosby, Athletics
23. Yuniesky Betancourt, Mariners
NOTE: If only his glove had roto value.
24. Jason Bartlett, Rays
25. Cesar Izturis, Cardinals
26. *Rafael Furcal, Dodgers
27. Juan Uribe, White Sox
28. *Julio Lugo, Red Sox
29. *Jack Wilson, Pirates
30. David Eckstein, Diamondbacks

Third Base
1. Alex Rodriguez, Yankees
2. David Wright, Mets
3. Ryan Braun, Brewers
4. Aramis Ramirez, Cubs
5. Garrett Atkins, Rockies
6. Jorge Cantu, Marlins
7. Ty Wigginton, Astros
NOTE: Hello, Crawford Boxes.
8. *Melvin Mora, Orioles
NOTE: Mad run but he's nicked up.
9. Ian Stewart, Rockies
10. *Chipper Jones, Braves
11. Chone Figgins, Angels
12. Mark Reynolds, Diamondbacks
13. Kevin Kouzmanoff, Padres
14. *Ryan Zimmerman, Nationals
NOTE: Better swings in last week.
15. *Carlos Guillen, Tigers
16. Edwin Encarnacion, Reds
17. Adrian Beltre, Mariners
18. Troy Glaus, Cardinals
19. Ryan Garko, Indians
20. *Evan Longoria, Rays
21. Chris Davis, Rangers
22. *Mike Lowell, Red Sox
23. *Hank Blalock, Rangers
24. Chad Tracy, Diamondbacks
25. Casey Blake, Dodgers
26. Willy Aybar, Rays
27. *Scott Rolen, Blue Jays
28. Marco Scutaro, Blue Jays
29. *Joe Crede, White Sox
30. Andy LaRoche, Pirates
31. Geoff Blum, Astros
32. *Alex Gordon, Royals
33. Andy Marte, Indians
34. Rich Aurilia, Giants
35. Jack Hannahan, Athletics

Outfield
1. Grady Sizemore, Indians
2. Matt Holliday, Rockies
NOTE: Headed for 30-30, then trade rumors.
3. Manny Ramirez, Dodgers
4. Carlos Quentin, White Sox
5. Josh Hamilton, Rangers
6. Jason Bay, Red Sox
NOTE: All in all, Boston will take the exchange.
7. Jermaine Dye, White Sox
8. Nick Markakis, Orioles
9. Alex Rios, Blue Jays
10. Alfonso Soriano, Cubs
11. Curtis Granderson, Tigers
NOTE: A dynamic guy in No. 1 slot.
12. Matt Kemp, Dodgers
13. Ryan Ludwick, Cardinals
14. Corey Hart, Brewers
15. Bobby Abreu, Yankees
16. Carlos Beltran, Mets
17. Xavier Nady, Yankees
18. B.J. Upton, Rays
19. Vladimir Guerrero, Angels
20. Ichiro Suzuki, Mariners
21. Pat Burrell, Phillies
22. Shane Victorino, Phillies
23. Magglio Ordonez, Tigers
24. Vernon Wells, Blue Jays
NOTE: Healthy and production shows.
25. Johnny Damon, Yankees
26. Hunter Pence, Astros
27. Mike Cameron, Brewers
NOTE: Underrated part of their playoff push.
28. Nate McLouth, Pirates
29. Jacoby Ellsbury, Red Sox
30. Brad Hawpe, Rockies
31. Torii Hunter, Angels
32. *Rick Ankiel, Cardinals
33. Raul Ibanez, Mariners
34. Lastings Milledge, Nationals
35. Aaron Rowand, Giants
36. *Milton Bradley, Rangers
37. Randy Winn, Giants
38. Conor Jackson, Diamondbacks
39. Denard Span, Twins
40. Willy Taveras, Rockies
NOTE: Running to save his job.
41. Jay Bruce, Reds
42. Jayson Werth, Phillies
NOTE: Owns lefties, and has gig now.
43. Jason Kubel, Twins
44. Adam Dunn, Diamondbacks
45. Chris Young, Diamondbacks
46. Fred Lewis, Giants
47. *Elijah Dukes, Nationals
48. *Jose Guillen, Royals
49. Ben Francisco, Indians
50. Jeremy Hermida, Marlins
51. *Adam Jones, Orioles
NOTE: Back from foot injury.
52. Luke Scott, Orioles
53. Juan Pierre, Dodgers
54. Andre Ethier, Dodgers
NOTE: Keeps spot even with Andruw's return.
55. Hideki Matsui, Yankees
56. Delmon Young, Twins
57. Chase Headley, Padres
58. Jack Cust, Athletics
59. Nelson Cruz, Rangers
60. *Michael Bourn, Astros
61. Adam Lind, Blue Jays
62. Jim Edmonds, Cubs
63. Nick Swisher, White Sox
64. Matt Joyce, Tigers
65. Marlon Byrd, Rangers
66. Cody Ross, Marlins
67. *Carlos Gomez, Twins
68. *Garret Anderson, Angels
69. Eric Hinske, Rays
70. David DeJesus, Royals
71. Josh Anderson, Braves
NOTE: Sneaky September add in deep mixers.
72. *Jody Gerut, Padres
73. Juan Rivera, Angels
74. Coco Crisp, Red Sox
75. Jeff Francoeur, Braves
76. Ken Griffey, White Sox
77. Josh Willingham, Marlins
78. *Justin Upton, Diamondbacks
79. Ryan Church, Mets
80. Kosuke Fukudome, Cubs
NOTE: He's fallen apart in second half.
81. Carlos Gonzalez, Athletics
82. Reed Johnson, Cubs
83. Brandon Boggs, Rangers
84. Ross Gload, Royals
85. *Marcus Thames, Tigers
86. Skip Schumaker, Cardinals
87. Brian Giles, Padres
88. Bill Hall, Brewers
89. Gregor Blanco, Braves
90. Shin-Soo Choo, Indians
91. Darin Erstad, Astros
92. *David Murphy, Rangers
93. Dexter Fowler, Rockies
94. Daniel Murphy, Mets
95. Gary Matthews, Angels
96. Fernando Tatis, Mets
97. Rajai Davis, Athletics
98. Mark Teahen, Royals
99. *J.D. Drew, Red Sox
NOTE: Hurt again, act surprised.

Catcher
1. Brian McCann, Braves
2. Geovany Soto, Cubs
NOTE: The ROY in a walk.
3. Russell Martin, Dodgers
4. Joe Mauer, Twins
5. Ryan Doumit, Pirates
6. A.J. Pierzynski, White Sox
7. Bengie Molina, Giants
8. Yadier Molina, Cardinals
9. Kelly Shoppach, Indians
NOTE: Keep using him, even with V-Mart back.
10. *Victor Martinez, Indians
11. Chris Snyder, Diamondbacks
12. Ramon Hernandez, Orioles
13. Chris Iannetta, Rockies
14. Kurt Suzuki, Athletics
15. *Dioner Navarro, Rays
16. Pablo Sandoval, Giants
NOTE: Getting run at the corner spots.
17. Jason Varitek, Red Sox
18. Rod Barajas, Blue Jays
19. Jeff Clement, Mariners
20. Gerald Laird, Rangers
21. Mike Napoli, Angels
22. Ivan Rodriguez, Yankees
23. Miguel Montero, Diamondbacks
24. Jesus Flores, Nationals
25. Carlos Ruiz, Phillies
26. John Baker, Marlins
27. Brian Schneider, Mets
28. Miguel Olivo, Royals
29. *Jarrod Saltalamacchia, Rangers
30. John Buck, Royals
31. Jeff Mathis, Angels