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March 26, 2008
Most indicators of economic activity track the present or the past – what’s the Dow at, what’s the price of oil, how many vehicles sold last month, were housing starts up or down last month?
The Conference Board’s Expectations Index looks at the future.
And the latest findings are not encouraging.
The board found consumer confidence in March at its lowest level since 1973 – back when Richard Nixon was president and the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries first flexed its muscle by restricting oil production, thus driving up prices.
It is hardly news that most of us are currently apprehensive about the future. What with record oil and gas prices, the economic meltdown caused by the sub-prime mortgage crisis and George Bush’s interminable war in Iraq, these are not happy times.
Unfortunately, the findings from the Conference Board’s Consumer Research Center reinforce the general sense that the American consumer is pessimistic about the future - and when people are pessimistic, they do not buy big items like cars and trucks.
That’s bad for the auto makers and this week’s Automotive News says manufacturers are cutting production, laying off workers and asking suppliers to lower prices.
And it’s bad for dealers who are caught in the middle, trying to market vehicles to wary customers against a backdrop of tighter credit.
But there is one ray of light. With manufacturers and dealers keen for sales, it’s good for those consumers who can afford to get into the market as there are plenty of discounts and bargains out there.
- Peter C. T. Elsworth
Posted by Peter C. T. Elsworth 
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