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November 30, 2007
Ethanol took a hit as an alternative fuel with the recent release of a paper from the conservative Pardee Rand Graduate School in Santa Monica.
The study examines the benefits and costs of three alternative fuel technologies through for the 2010-2020 period: "gasoline-electric hybrid technology, advanced diesel technology, and vehicles powered continuously by a mixture of 85 percent ethanol and 15 percent gasoline (E85)."
It found that when taking into account the variables of oil prices, the efficiencies of the fuels in addition to the pros and cons of each from a private and a social perspective that ethanol blends were less cost effective than diesel, gas hybrids and gasoline itself.
This is a further blow to the ethanol lobby following a collapse in ethanol prices due to a glut based on hopes that it was the fuel of the future.
Indeed, clean, or advanced, diesel comes out on top. While the American auto makers may be disappointed by this news - they have been focusing on "a portfolio" of alternative fuels such as ethanol blends, gas/electric hybrids and hydrogen fuel cell/electric vehicles which they seem to regard as cleaner alternatives compared to advanced diesel - the European manufacturers have been focusing on diesel.
In a recent interview I had with Brian Nesbitt at the New England International Auto Show earlier this week, the charming and accessible head of GM design in North America who has just returned from a three year tour in Europe, I asked him what he thought of the new diesel technology. He said he thought it was not clean compared to the alternatives and might run into regulatory problems in the U.S.
"It all comes back to what the custover wants," he said.
Fair enough. And in a land where gasoline at $3 a gallon is less than half the price it is in Europe, it is not surprising that we Americans still want big vehicles with powertrains that are driven by gasoline-based fuels.
But as I have said before, the diesels are coming with VW and Mercedes-Benz bringing over an increasing number of models next year. And in Europe, the BMW 3- and 5-series diesels are wowing critics. Volvo has a range of diesel cars in Europe and I cannot imagine they would not sell over here. Volvo drivers are the ultimate granola crunchy liberal types - I know, I'm one - and I'm sure most would jump at the opportunity to go clean diesel.
Now let me see, we've discussed ethanol, gas hybrids and clean diesel in addition to our old friend gasoline - that leaves hydrogen fuel cell technology which has been in the news recently because of the release of the Honda FCX Clarity.
But reviews of this car reveal the drawbacks of the technology. Consider that while it is being touted as the first regular production hydrogen cell car, Honda plans to lease only 100 of them for three years at $600 a month. Meanwhile, the cars are estimated to cost $300,000 each!
Folks, those numbers work only in the laboratory. And then there is the issue of emissions. Sure, the only emission from a hydrogen fuel cell car is water, a point made in Honda's recent ad campaign that announces: "The Droplet Heard Around the World."
But what a load of cobblers! What's not mentioned is the fact that over 90 percent of commercial hydrogen is made through steam reforming which uses natural gas and steam. Two problems here: one is that we have less than five percent of the world's natural gas reserves - Russia, Iran and Qatar have the biggest reserves - and the waste products from steam reforming include carbon dioxide!
Hydrogen fuel cell technology may well be the fuel of the future but that future is 20 years out. Meanwhile, we have a fuel that is clean and efficient and available. We can't stop the world, so let's move on with clean diesel while we have it and keep looking for cleaner alternatives as we go. For the time being, it seems to me, clean diesel rules.
- Peter C. T. Elsworth
Posted by Peter C. T. Elsworth 
at 2:03 PM to commentary
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