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September 20, 2007

Jim Donaldson: Team is making a monkey out of Theo

By Jim Donaldson

Hope Theo Epstein still has that gorilla suit in his closet.

Because, if the Red Sox somehow manage to lose the A.L. East to the Yankees - again, for the 10th consecutive year, after having led them by 141/2 games - or, even worse, are quickly eliminated from the playoffs, he's going to need it to slink out of Fenway Park next month.

Let's check out the Boy Genius's off-base percentage this season.

As all devoted Sox fans know, Theo and his stat-geek, baseball-fraternity-boy buddies, put great stock in players' on-base percentage. Off-base percentage, in the case of general managers - especially those with hundreds of millions of dollars to spend - measures how often they make a move that is way off-base.

So, what's your favorite Epstein deal this season?

How's that Eric Gagne trade working out?

You think J.D. Drew is worth $14 million a year?

Julio Lugo, Boston's fifth shortstop in four years, was signed to a 4-year, $36 million contract, but couldn't be bothered running hard to first base with the game - and, arguably, the division title - on the line Wednesday night in Toronto.

And, while we're talking money, it should be pointed out that Daisuke Matsuzaka, who cost the Sox $103 million, was 7-10 since May 30 going into last night's start in Tampa Bay against the last-place Devil Rays, against whom he was 1-3 this season.

Is it any wonder, then, that it seems the Red Sox have been winning in spite of the moves Epstein has made this season - not because of them?

We don't even want to talk about last year, when Theo let Johnny Damon go to the Yankees and replaced him with Coco Crisp; traded Bronson Arroyo to Cincinnati for Wily Mo Pena; and gave up Cla Meredith in order to get back Doug Mirabelli.

(But we will, a little later on, as soon as we run through this year's list of general-managerial miscalculations.)

Gagne was supposed to be the guy who put the Red Sox over the top - who not only would lock up Boston's first division title since 1995, but also, along with Hideki Okajima and Jonathon Papelbon, would make the bullpen virtually unhittable in the playoffs.

Instead, he is at rock-bottom in what has been a very good career.

After blowing yet another game Tuesday night in Toronto - 3 runs, 3 walks, 2 hits, 1 inning - Gagne now has an horrendous, 9.00 earned-run average with Boston, has given up 23 hits and 14 runs in 14 innings, and has blown all three save opportunities he has had.

To get him, Epstein sent left-handed starter Kason Gabbard and once highly regarded outfield prospect David Murphy to the Rangers. Gabbard, who was 4-0 for the Sox at the time of the trade, is 2-1 in Texas. Murphy is hitting .370 in 34 games with the Rangers.

Drew clearly is overpaid and underachieving, batting just .261, with only 9 homers and 53 RBI. As the trading deadline neared at the end of August, the Red Sox reportedly were trying to obtain Jermaine Dye from the White Sox to platoon with Drew in right field.

You pay a guy $14 million a season, and then go looking for somebody who can play in his place whenever a lefty's on the mound? How many teams can afford to do that?
Drew's nine homers have come in 441 at-bats. Journeyman Eric Hinske has 6 in 167 at-bats. Even light-hitting (.219) Mirabelli has 5 homer, in 105 at-bats.

Epstein felt Lugo finally would be the answer at shortstop, where he's gone through Nomar Garciaparra, Orlando Cabrera, the highly touted Edgar Renteria, and Alex Gonzales since the summer of '04.

But Lugo is hitting .240 and isn't exactly a Gold Glover defensively. On top of which, he didn't hustle down the first-base line against the Jays the other night, costing the Sox what would have been the tying run when Toronto shortstop Ray Olmedo bobbled his two-out, strangely spinning bouncer.

Matsuzaka shows promise, but a 7-10 record since Memorial Day isn't much return on an investment of $103 million. Again, it's a case of the Red Sox being able to throw around the kind of money that many clubs can only dream about spending.

The Pena trade last year was a bust. He's now with the Washington Nationals, after hitting .218 this season for Boston, with 5 homers and 58 strikeouts in 73 games. Arroyo, on the other hand, was 14-11 last year for Cincinnati, with an ERA of 3.29 in 240 innings. After getting off to a slow start this season, Arroyo has won four his last five decisions, improving his record to 9-14, with an ERA of 4.37 in 197 innings.

Cla Meredith, who was shipped to San Diego last year in order to get Mirabelli back to catch Tim Wakefield's unpredictable knuckleball, was 5-1 for the Padres in '06, with a microscopic ERA of 1.07. In 74 appearances this year, he's 5-6, with a 3.47 ERA.

But the fact that Mirabelli's bat is a liability has resulted, for the second year in a row, in Jason Varitek having to be behind the plate in too many games, causing him to tire late in the season. Varitek, who looks like a walking ice-pack in the clubhouse after games, has just 30 extra-base hits this season. Kelly Shoppach, traded to Cleveland in the Crisp deal, is hitting .262 for the Indians in a backup role, while Josh Bard, who struggled behind the plate when Wakefield was pitching, is batting .275 in 107 games for the Padres this season.

Crisp has been better this year than last, when he was bothered by injuries. He hit .264 in '06, with 8 homers and 22 stolen bases in 105 games, while Damon was hitting 24 homers and batting .285, with 25 stolen bases, in 149 games for the Yankees. This year, Damon's hitting .258, with 11 homers and 24 stolen bases, while Crisp is batting .270, with 6 homers and 26 stolen bases.

The Sox may yet regroup and win the A.L. East, then go on to play well in the postseason.

But, if they don't, Theo might want to keep that gorilla suit handy.

Posted by Mike McDermott at 3:20 PM | Permalink

Comments

And how about the Sox giving away Carlos Pena to the Devil Rays? Think they could use his bat this year...?!

Matt Burk | September 20, 2007 3:52 PM link

Talk about reactionary. Your team is in first place with nine (9, yes nine!) games to go, and a virtual lock for a playoff spot.

Where to begin?

"Because, if the Red Sox somehow manage to lose the A.L. East to the Yankees - again, for the 10th consecutive year, after having led them by 141/2 games - or, even worse, are quickly eliminated from the playoffs, he's going to need it to slink out of Fenway Park next month."

Yes, the Red Sox have played crap baseball recently -- by recently I mean the last week --, but a .555 winning percentage for the month is not awful. In June they posted a .485 W%. June has had more effect their dwindling division lead than September. Just thought I would point that out.

As far as being eliminated from the playoffs: the Red Sox would have to lose 7 or their next 9 while the Tigers would have to go 9 and 0. Seems highly unlikely. Once again I can't tell you how reactionary you come off.

"As all devoted Sox fans know, Theo and his stat-geek, baseball-fraternity-boy buddies, put great stock in players' on-base percentage."

Really? you're still beating this dead horse. I thought by now even "old school" baseball guys accepted the fact that OBP is a good metric. Either way using OBP as a poke at "Stat Geeks" Is more or less a poke at your own ignorance. I mean, it's a pretty common and accepted stat these days. anyway...

"How's that Eric Gagne trade working out?"

Not well, we can both agree on that.

Aha! Those studs Murphy & Gabbard. If we could only find guys like that! Beware of small sample sizes my friend. Beware.

"You think J.D. Drew is worth $14 million a year?"

Nope. To be fair we are in year one of the deal, And we all know how that Renteria thingy turned out when we gave up on him after year one, Right?

We don't even want to talk about last year, when Theo let Johnny Damon go to the Yankees and replaced him with Coco Crisp

Wow. Really? You still think we should have resigned Johnny Damon. You go on to point out his numbers a bit further down, which should have knocked some sense into you. Last year Johnny put up some good numbers. This year, not so much. Let alone the total number of games played due to injury (A game less than that hated J.D. drew in fact). What would you do with him for the next two years? A bench role of sorts?

And, while we're talking money, it should be pointed out that Daisuke Matsuzaka, who cost the Sox $103 million, was 7-10 since May 30

Yep, a lot of money on that guy. Totally not worth it, Maybe we should have gotten Zito or someone. Matsuzaka is pitching pretty well considering It's his first year in the Majors.Once again, It's first year of the deal and therefore hard to tell the real value.

"Arroyo, on the other hand, was 14-11 last year for Cincinnati, with an ERA of 3.29 in 240 innings. After getting off to a slow start this season, Arroyo has won four his last five decisions, improving his record to 9-14, with an ERA of 4.37 in 197 innings."

Where does he fit in our rotation?

"Cla Meredith, who was shipped to San Diego last year in order to get Mirabelli back to catch Tim Wakefield's unpredictable knuckleball, was 5-1 for the Padres in '06, with a microscopic ERA of 1.07. In 74 appearances this year, he's 5-6, with a 3.47 ERA."

This is by far and away Theo's worst deal. I'm sure we can both agree on this too.

"The Sox may yet regroup and win the A.L. East, then go on to play well in the postseason.

But, if they don't, Theo might want to keep that gorilla suit handy. "

Nice. Way to leave the door open fro some future backtracking with a nice just-in-case. It really drives your Diatribe home!

Talking about problems without offering solutions is sort of like talking about politics when you haven't voted. So...

I would like to pose a question to you: What would you have done differently?

I'm sure you could pound out a nice 500 word piece on how you would have done things. We'd all love to read it. Plus you'd have a year or two of hind-sight to work with.

Andrew | September 20, 2007 6:46 PM link

Weird the Journal doesn't want trolls or offensive comments but allows Donaldson to keep writing. Point me at the column where you declared the Gagne trade A Bad Idea at the time.

Tom Clancy | September 20, 2007 9:28 PM link

Horrible article, obviously written simply to bash theo. You lose all credibility for the damon remark. Imagine if they had given him the 13 million a year he ended up with in ny. You'd be bashing him for that.

Letting damon go was the right move then, and the right move now.

gr | September 21, 2007 2:37 AM link

It's over folks. This team is finding different ways to lose every night. Even if they do make the playoffs it will be 3 and out in the first round. There is no heart in this team.

Don D | September 21, 2007 6:20 AM link

Gagne has been exactly the same pitcher in Boston that he was in Texas. And that is a pitcher with decent but unremarkable talent.

Don't worry, it's easily dismissed as nerd geekery. Just dig out some old cliche and wrap that up.

Tom Clancy | September 21, 2007 7:18 AM link

Finally Donaldson gets it...he nails everything.

Sox Lover | September 21, 2007 7:52 AM link

Mr. Donaldson, the commentor who makes the point that you only complain and offer no alternate solutions is accurate and makes your article next to worthless.

It's easy to complain.

Sox Fan

marcel lussier | September 21, 2007 9:41 AM link

Funny how Donaldson only pops up when things are going well for his beloved Yankees and when the Sox are in a funk. You never hear from himm when the situations are reversed.

I loved the comment "Point me at the column where you declared the Gagne trade A Bad Idea at the time." Donaldson does indeed possess 20-20 hindsight.

"I'm sure you could pound out a nice 500 word piece on how you would have done things. We'd all love to read it." He couldn't, as that would require thought and analysis. Let's make it easier on him, between now and December 31, write a column outlining how he would build his Yankees for 2008. Let's see how good he is at pretending to do what he bashes others for actually doing.

John | September 21, 2007 9:51 AM link

Oh, Ye of little faith. Already to kick Theo in the rear, when things get rough. All the praises at the beginning of this year must have been a figment of Red Sox Nations imagination, right? Let me put you at ease,. The red sox will regroup, and will have an impressive post season. An AWCS would be the ultimate "Bonus". So just get with the program, and enjoy the ride to the play-offs....

Corky Jones | September 21, 2007 11:19 AM link