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November 4, 2007

Showtime: When all's said and done, it'll be the Patriots who come out on top

By Shalise Manza Young
Journal Sports Writer

It's time.

After a week of hype and hyperbole, analysis and overanalysis, the New England Patriots and the Indianapolis Colts face off today in one of the most highly anticipated regular-season games in National Football League history. Today, at 4:15 p.m., all the questions that have arisen regarding the first matchup ever between two undefeated teams this late in an NFL season will be answered.

WHEN THE PATRIOTS RUN THE BALL
The key for the Pats is a healthy Laurence Maroney, and he seems to be just that after missing three games because of a groin injury and then seeing limited playing time when he returned two weeks ago against Miam. The Pats will need a strong running game to keep Indianapolis from (a) loading the secondary with defensive backs in an attempt to clamp down on the Pats' passing attack, and (b) teeing off on Tom Brady. The Colts' run defense is better than last year but is still just fair -- it allowed 141 yards to Tennessee, 223 to Denver -- and Maroney could be in for a big game. His backups, Kevin Faulk and Heath Evans, have dramatically different styles than Maroney, which could complement the overall running game.
Edge: Patriots

WHEN THE PATRIOTS PASS THE BALL
For as much of an impact as Randy Moss has had this season, this is the game where he may make the biggest difference. Indianapolis has a small and quick secondary, and those are the types of players the taller Moss has taken advantage of all season. The Colts will have to account for him on every snap, which should open the field for the other receivers, in general, and Wes Welker, in particular. Benjamin Watson has been hampered by an ankle injury, but if he plays he could also be a big factor. If the offensive line continues to give Brady the kind of time they've provided all season, he should continue his unprecedented streak of throwing at least three touchdown passes in every game.
Edge: Patriots

WHEN THE COLTS RUN THE BALL
The Patriots have allowed opponents to rush for more than 100 yards only twoice all season, and keeping their foes under 100 is a weekly team goal. They'll have their work cut out for them today because the Colts' one-two combination of Joseph Addai and Kenton Keith has been effective all season. But this is where the return of Richard Seymour should make a difference for the Pats. If Vince Wilfork draws extra attention from the Colts' offensive line, as he probably will, it will free Seymour -- along with fellow defensive linemen Ty Warren and Jarvis Green -- to block the running lanes and prevent Addai from getting outside the tackles, where he does his best work.
Edge: Patriots

WHEN THE COLTS PASS THE BALL
After playing so poorly for so long against the Patriots, Peyton Manning seems to have unlocked the secrets of Bill Belichick's defense. He has passed for 320-plus yards in each of his last three games against the Pats and won all of them, after going 2-10 against New England over the first six seasons of his career. (The first four games were played before Belichick's arrival as head coach.) He'll be hampered today if Marvin Harrison, who missed practice most of the week because of a knee injury, isn't at 100 percent, but he still has weapons in receivers Reggie Wayne and Dallas Clark. The Pats' best defense may be their offense. If Brady & Co. can control the ball and keep Manning off the field, it may be New England's best shot at containing a quarterback who has rung up 105 points against them in the last three meetings.
Edge: Colts

SPECIAL TEAMS
Adam Vinatieri may be as automatic as they come on field-goal attempts, but the knock against him has always been his leg strength, particularly on kickoffs. This may be a big hidden edge for the Pats. They're averaging more than 29 yards per kickoff return -- and they may be better than that against the Colts, who allow an average of 25 yards per kick return. And that could give New England a huge advantage in the field-position battle. Brady and his offense are difficult enough to contain. Brady and his offense on a short field are even tougher to stop. The punting game could be another boon for the Pats, as Welker is averaging 10.1 yards per return and the Colts are the worst in the league in punt coverage.
Edge: Patriots

COACHING
This is Belichick's first shot at the Colts after one of the most bitter defeats of his career -- the last-minute 38-34 loss in the AFC Championship Game last January, in which the Pats blew a 21-3 lead. Historically, the Patriots are ready to play in big games. Motivation should be no problem today, not with the memory of last January and all that's happened since (Spygate, the tarnishing of the Pats' image, the comment by Colts coach Tony Dungy that New England's rule-breaking was "a sad day" in the NFL) still so fresh in their minds.
Edge: Patriots

THE WINNER?
The oddsmakers have installed the Pats as 5 1/2-poing favorites, which is incredible when you consider that they're playing the defending Super Bowl champions -- who, by the way, are also undefeated -- on the road. Incredible though it may be, that's what they're saying.

And that's what we're saying, too.

Edge: Patriots

Posted by Mike McDermott  at 7:42 AM | Permalink