The Butler 2 Fire in the Big Bear area charred 14,000 acres last September. (The Press-Enterprise/Ed Crisostomo)

The statistics from scientists on climate change and its effects on wildfires is a little daunting, given our region's susceptibility to wind-driven infernos.

An interesting study on giant sequoias in the Sierra Nevada and their tree rings tell a 3,000-year story about drought and fire. From 900 to 1300 AD, there were a lot of fires burning every two to 10 years, especially from 1100 to 1300 when it was extremely dry. Then after 1300, it got cooler and wetter and the fire frequency was every 10 to 20 years.

Tom Swetnam, director of the Laboratory of Tree Ring Research at the University of Arizona, said that shows the strong correlation between fire and drought. And he said, that doesn't bode when you throw climate change into the mix.

"The recent scientific models show the Western U.S. and Southwest is likely to become an epicenter of drying and continued drought," he told me yesterday by telephone.

He is among the scientists and fire managers wrapping up a three-day conference on the topic today in Tucson, Ariz.

Swetnam and Anthony Westerling, of the Sierra Nevada Research Institute,
University of California at Merced had a study published September in the journal Science that showed that global warming has caused a 300 percent increase in the number of large wildfires over the last 20 years and a 600 percent increase in the area burned in the U.S.

Those at the conference said the next step is to figure out how to develop policy to better manage fires and forests. On the one hand, the trees take in a lot of carbon and thereby reduce greenhouse gas emissions; but as global warming causes more fires and destroys those trees, that tactic in reducing global warming will be lost.

And as fires more and more become large "complexes," taking over vast amounts of land, it will be especially important, they said.

Timothy Ingalsbee, executive director of Firefighters United for Safety, Ethics, and Ecology, said "it's difficult to get folks worried about fire in January … but I think that’s one of the things we’ll be seeing is the end of the seasonality of wildfire. It's going to become a permanent migrating phenomenon."

1 Comments

Sam Huang on January 31, 2008 9:10 PM said:

Every day I study Jennifer’s Environmental Blog. She not only provides information about climate change, she also includes details as to what we can do about global warming and who is doing it locally.

The Blog on January 30, is a typical example. She not only described the National Teach-In for the Environment which is taking place in over 1500 campuses nationally, she also gave a list of many free environmental lectures taking place in the Inland Empire. Check Jennifer’s January 30, Blog for details.

I congratulate The Press Enterprise for featuring Jennifer’s Environmental Blog. Her information would make a valuable daily column, which would reach more readers more often with vital and current information.

Sam Huang

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