Mark Murray: June 2009 Archives

Thanks to the rain, Tuesday was the coolest day in Austin in over a month! But, it wasn't cool enough to change our standing on the list of hottest Junes ever for Austin. We finished June with an average temperature of 86.6 degrees at Camp Mabry. Here's where that puts us:

1) June 2008 87.4 degrees
2) June 2009 86.8 degrees
3) June 1998 86.4 degrees

As for the average high temperature, the results are similar:

1) June 2008 99.4 degrees
2) June 2009 99.1 degrees
3) June 1923 98.0 degrees

It's interesting to note that we've now seen 23 months in a row with above normal temperatures at Camp Mabry. The outlook for July calls for more above normal heat. If that holds true, that would make it 2 years in a row with warmer than normal temperatures in Austin.

Mark Murray

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Mike writes...

"Can you give an update as to where we stand? Are we going to be hotter than June 2008? It does seem hotter but a year is a long time ago so I'm sure to most of us it's hotter because it is in the present as opposed to the past. Shoot. I guess I don't even remember June 2008 as being hot."

Mike,

Today has been another triple-digit, record-breaking day for Austin, but it's not enough to beat last year. However, as of Monday afternoon, we've moved into 2nd place. Here's where we stand on the list of Hottest Junes Ever for Austin (Camp Mabry).

1) June 2008 87.6 degrees
2) June 2009 86.7 degrees
3) June 1998 86.4 degrees

With only one day left in the month, there's no way we'll beat last year's record. And, even with a weak cold front in the area on Tuesday, we're not likely to cool off enough to drop back into 3rd place. So, it seems almost certain that June of 2009 will do down in the record books as the second hottest June ever in Austin's history. I'll post the final numbers Tuesday evening.

Mark

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June of 2008 was the hottest June on record for Austin (Camp Mabry). Could June of 2009 break that record? Probably not. But, if my forecast for the next few days is correct, we'll end up in second place. Here are the standings as of Thursday night.

1) 2008 87.6 average temperature
2) 1998 86.4
3) 1925 86.3
4) 2009 86.0
5) 1881 85.9

To calculate the 'average temperature', you simply add up all of the high temperatures and low temperatures for the month. Divide by 2, then divide by the number of days in the month...in this case, 30 days. Based on the month so far, and my 7 Day Forecast, it looks like we'll end up with an average temperature this month of 86.7 degrees...good enough for second place.

It's the same story for the average high temperature for June. So far, the standings are...

1) 2008 99.4 degrees
2) 2009 98.2
3) 1923 98.0

Again, based on the 7-Day Forecast, I project we'll end up with an average high of 99.1 degrees. Not enough to claim first place. And, that's O.K. with me!

Mark

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Carole writes...

"Several weeks ago you mentioned that El Nino was on the move and we could expect our weather to change. Do you have an approximate timeline? We are SO ready for a change from the drought conditions we've suffered for the last several years!"

Good question, Carole! I'll be talking about this on the news sometime over the next few days, but I though I'd give you a little preview. Yes, it looks like El Nino is set to return this summer. If it doesn't fizzle by this fall, that's good news for Austin. El Nino has little effect on our summer weather pattern here in Central Texas, but by this fall, things are looking up! Check out the link to the following maps from the Climate Prediction Center. They say that from this fall through next spring, Central Texas could see ABOVE normal precipitation! I know! Hard to believe!

http://www.cpc.noaa.gov/products/predictions//multi_season/13_seasonal_outlooks/color/p.gif

Thanks for writing!

Mark

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El Nino is set to return this summer! That's great news for Austin, as El Nino conditions typically bring us more rainfall. And, with Central Texas still in a extreme to exceptional drought, we need all the help we can get. Sea surface temperatures have increased for 5 months in a row along the equator in the central Pacific Ocean....the region otherwise known as NINO 3.4. That's the region that seems to have the greatest impact on rainfall patterns in Texas. The blue shaded area is our La Nina, which is now history. The orange indicates that Pacific waters are now warmer than normal. Once the sea surface temperature gets to be 0.5 degrees C above normal, we're officially in an El Nino pattern. As you can see from this graph, we're just about there!

Here's the latest from the Climate Prediction Center who have now issued an "El Nino Watch".

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/analysis_monitoring/enso_advisory/ensodisc.html

El Nino doesn't make much of a difference for Austin's summer rainfall, but should help us as we get into fall. It's too soon to say that this will end the drought, but signs are encouraging!

Mark Murray

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