Experts initially predicted that we'd see about an average hurricane season. But, I'm starting to think that we'll be in for a below average number of tropical storms and hurricanes this year. An average season would consist of around 10 named storms, with six of those becoming hurricanes. As you know, we have yet to see the first named storm of the season in the Atlantic basin (that includes the Atlantic Ocean, the Caribbean Sea, and the Gulf of Mexico). A slow start to hurricane season is not unheard of, but on average, by July 31st we've seen our first named storm about 80% of the time. If we haven't had our first named storm by July 31st, then about 80% of the time, we see a below average hurricane season.

Remember, just because we may see a below average year, doesn't mean that we shouldn't be ready! The last time we didn't see a named storm until August was back in 1992. That was the year that Hurricane Andrew developed (August 16th). That did turn out to be a below average hurricane season, but ask anyone in Florida or Louisiana, and they may have a different opinion!

Another factor to consider is the return of El Nino. More often than not, the wind shear associated with an El Nino event leads to a below average number of tropical storms and hurricanes.

We'll see what the experts have to say when they update their hurricane season forecasts around August 1st. My thanks to Bob Rose from the LCRA for his input!

Mark Murray

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