 |
 |
|
|
Mark's WEATHER BLOG |
|
August 2009
Categories
More KVUE Blogs
|
July 2009 ArchivesThe Space Shuttle Endeavour is scheduled for a 9:48 am CDT landing in Florida on Friday morning. As with most shuttle trips to the International Space Station, we will not be able to see the shuttle as it deorbits into the Earth's atmosphere. There will be up to two attempts to land on Friday. The first attempt will be on orbit 248. That will bring the shuttle over Central America and Cuba.
There's also a landing opportunity on orbit 249. But, again, it would be too far south for those of us in Texas to see.
-Mark Murray Experts initially predicted that we'd see about an average hurricane season. But, I'm starting to think that we'll be in for a below average number of tropical storms and hurricanes this year. An average season would consist of around 10 named storms, with six of those becoming hurricanes. As you know, we have yet to see the first named storm of the season in the Atlantic basin (that includes the Atlantic Ocean, the Caribbean Sea, and the Gulf of Mexico). A slow start to hurricane season is not unheard of, but on average, by July 31st we've seen our first named storm about 80% of the time. If we haven't had our first named storm by July 31st, then about 80% of the time, we see a below average hurricane season. Remember, just because we may see a below average year, doesn't mean that we shouldn't be ready! The last time we didn't see a named storm until August was back in 1992. That was the year that Hurricane Andrew developed (August 16th). That did turn out to be a below average hurricane season, but ask anyone in Florida or Louisiana, and they may have a different opinion! Another factor to consider is the return of El Nino. More often than not, the wind shear associated with an El Nino event leads to a below average number of tropical storms and hurricanes. We'll see what the experts have to say when they update their hurricane season forecasts around August 1st. My thanks to Bob Rose from the LCRA for his input! Mark Murray Just a reminder that there are some great opportunities to see the Space Shuttle and the Space Station from Austin this weekend. Skies should be clear enough to enjoy the show! These passes will be starting from the north or west. Sat 7/25 9:36 pm, visible for 3 minutes, maximum elevation 17 degrees. ***These will be the brightest passes, but you should be able to see them all if skies are clear and you have a good view of the horizon (especially for those passes lower than 20 degrees). With an average temperature of 89.6 degrees, we're still on track for this to be the hottest July on record for Austin. The old record temperature of 89.1 degrees was set WAAAAY back in 1860. As of today, we've had 35 triple-digit days this year at Camp Mabry and have tied or set 14 new record high temperatures! And, believe it or not, the next 30 days are typically the hottest and driest of the summer in Austin. With the 40th anniversary of the Apollo moon landing just days away, the NASA Lunar Reconnaissance Orbiter has returned its first images of many of the Apollo lunar landing sites, including this one of the Apollo 11 lunar module.
Here's the link to the full story from NASA and more images from other Apollo missions. Where were you when man first set foot on the moon? I was with my family at my grandmother's cabin on a small lake in Southern Wisconsin. My dad had set up all of his elaborate camera gear to snap a picture of the screen on the old 13" black and white Zenith at the exact moment when Neil Armstrong stepped off of the ladder onto the moon. It's cool to be able to see that lunar module 40 years later. Mark Another record has been set! The 30-day period from June 16th through July 15th, 2009 was the HOTTEST 30-day period ever recorded in Austin (temperature records for Austin date back to 1898). The average temperature during that period was 89.5 degrees. The previous record for a 30-day period was 89.1 degrees which was set between July 28th and August 27th, 2000. Relief appears to be on the way. Late Thursday evening, storms were developing in North Texas and the Texas Panhandle. Upper-level winds from the northwest will help to steer some of these storms into Central Texas. This pattern will repeat itself each day between now and Tuesday. By the end of next week, high pressure should rebuild over Texas, shutting off the rain machine. Not everyone will get rainfall over the next few days. Those that do should average around 0.50". But, just having the clouds and storms nearby, should help cool us into the 90s for a few days. Enjoy the change! Mark Now that the Space Shuttle Endeavour is in orbit (with an Austinite on board!), there is a good chance we'll be able to see the shuttle and the International Space Station while they are docked together. But, it looks like we'll have to wait until July 23rd for our first opportunity. Here are the initial projections. I'll update them when we get closer to the 23rd. Mark I think we're all a bit tired of the heat...so, today on the blog let's talk about something cool! Cool video!! Many of us saw the International Space Station fly overhead last week. Here are some images they captured as the ISS passed over the Sarychev Volcano (Kuril Islands, northeast of Japan) in an early stage of the eruption on June 12, 2009. Mark Lake Travis reached another milestone on Monday, moving up to 4th place on the list of lowest levels ever recorded. Here's the list as of late Monday night: 1) 614.18' set in August of 1951 Because the lake is dropping between 1.5' and 2.0' per week, it's possible that we could move into 3rd place by the end of July or early August. Remember that the last public boat ramp on Travis at Mansfield Dam will close once the lake level falls below 640.00'. That will most likely happen on Tuesday. Here's a link to keep up to date with the most recent lake levels. Mark Murray El Nino has returned! We've been talking about this now for over a month, but today, the Climate Prediction Center made it official with this update. So, the big question now is...what does this mean for Central Texas and our extreme and exceptional drought conditions? Initially, the answer is...not much. El Nino doesn't have much of an impact on weather in the U.S. during the summer months. If anything, it can often make it drier in parts of Texas. But, by late fall into winter and next spring, the outlook is in our favor. Here are the maps of how a typical El Nino impacts the United States. Summer
Fall
Winter
Spring
So, good news in the long run. But, in the short term, if we are to see any relief from the hot and dry conditions, it may have to come from the tropics. More on that in the days to come. Mark As of Tuesday, we've now hit triple-digits 21 times this year at Camp Mabry. But, we have a long way to go if we're going to break the all-time record. Here are the ten years with the most 100 degree plus days: Most Triple-Digit Days in One Year in Austin Mark Murray We've now set 10 record highs in less than two weeks! And, that may be a record! Digging back through Austin's weather records, I can't find any other two week period where we've set 10 new record high temperatures. There have been other recent notable heatwaves where we've broken numerous records. In 2008, we set 16 record high temperatures in just one month, between May 19th, 2008 and June 18th, 2008. And, in 2000, we set 9 new record highs in a two week period from August 31st through September 12th, including Austin's all-time record high of 112 degrees set on September 5th, 2000. Here are the records for this week in Austin (Camp Mabry). Monday, July 6........104 degrees set in 2005 Mark Murray Over the next few days, the International Space Station will be making several spectacular passes over Texas. On some days, there will be more than one opportunity! Over the last 11 years, the ISS has grown to over 350 feet wide, and will be very bright and easy to spot on some of these passes. You should be able to see all of these passes, even from the city, but I've highlighted the ones that will be the brightest and easiest to see. They'll all be moving roughly from west to east, and should be visible for up to 5 minutes. Monday July 6 9:38 pm 49 degrees maximum elevation *Only 15 minutes after sunset. May be a little too bright outside. Give it a try. Let me know if you see it! -Mark Murray ...but, I will briefly mention that we broke a record high temperature today at Camp Mabry with 104 degrees. The old record was 103 set back in 1980. Look for record breaking heat for the holiday weekend. Here are the records that should fall: Friday, July 3rd 101 degrees Watch that Heat Index, too! It should be around 105 degrees this weekend. Mark Late Tuesday night, Lake Travis dropped to just over 643' above mean sea level. That moved it up to 5th place on the list of lowest lake levels ever recorded. Here's the list as of Wednesday evening: 1) 614.18' August 1951 Travis continues to fall at the rate of about 2 feet per week. The LCRA projects Travis could be as low as 630' MSL by Labor Day without significant rainfall. This is the lowest level we've seen at Lake Travis during the month of July since July of 1964! The LCRA says Lake Travis stands at 51% of capacity tonight. Mark Murray |
|
|
Chief meteorologist Mark Murray joined KVUE in 1990. Ask Mark a question at weather@kvue.com.
Click here to read more about Mark. |
|
