December 2008 Archives

Each year about this time, I get emails asking me what to get the weather enthusiast for Christmas. Here are a few ideas.

For the kids, how about a simple thermometer and a rain gauge? Include a small calendar for 2009, and encourage them to make their own daily weather journal. Record the temperature, the sky conditions (cloudy, sunny, partly cloudy, foggy, etc.) the wind direction, and the total rainfall about the same time each day. You can find electronic thermometers at places like Radio Shack for $10-$30. Look for one with a memory that can recall both the high and the low for the day. Rain gauges come in all shapes and sizes. Of course, you can make your own with a simple coffee can, or buy an inexpensive one at a hardware store. If you don't mind spending $30-$40, do an Internet search for a Stratus RG202 Rain Gauge. This is the one that I use. It's very accurate and easy to read. To record the wind direction, you won't need anything more than a compass. Just knowing where north, south, east and west are will work, too! You can tell quite a bit just by the direction of the wind. Pretty soon, just by watching the sky, they should be able to make their own forecasts!

For older kids, or even adults, I really like the Audubon Field Guide to North American Weather. It's a small book that's packed with cool pictures and great explanations of all types of weather. You should be able to find it at a local bookstore or online for around $15-$20. I still refer to my copy all the time!

For the big kids who like expensive toys, you may want to look into a complete home weather station. Davis Instruments makes a complete line (www.davisnet.com). Now, these can run anywhere from $300 to over $1,000, so you want to make sure you get the right one! I'd look for a 'wireless' model. That way, no one has to drill holes in the roof to run the cables!! And, it gives you many more options on where you can place the weather sensors. Several models come with a computer interface. That way, you can post the weather at your house on the Internet, and access it when you're away from home and share it with friends. You could really get fancy, and hook up a live home weather camera!

I want to wish everyone a Merry Christmas and a Happy Holiday Season!! Thanks for reading my blog, and thanks for watching KVUE!!

-Mark Murray

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Cedar Fever season is right around the corner. Last year, the first cedar pollen showed up on December 12th (40 grains per cubic meter of air). Readings stayed low until December 19th of 2007, when cedar pollen jumped up to 534 grains as more of the trees in the Hill Country began shedding pollen. Then, on December 31st, the big cedar explosion hit as trees right in the Austin area kicked into high gear. The pollen level that day shot up to 3,829!!

Due in part to the fact that 2007 was very wet, last year's cedar season was one of the worst we've seen since we began taking our own pollen readings here at KVUE 10 years ago. We'll see if the drought means this winter won't be as bad for those of us with Cedar Fever. We can only hope...

-Mark Murray

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Our forecast for next week still looks to be in good shape. The arctic airmass arrives in Austin Monday morning. I wouldn't call it bitterly cold, though. Temperatures up in Canada are only -20 to -40 degrees below zero. Arctic outbreaks in the past have seen temperatures at -60 below zero up in the Yukon Territory. Plus, the snow cover across the northern and central plains of the U.S. is still spotty. That will allow the air to warm up more that it would have if those northern states were covered with snow.

After the initial front hits Monday morning, we're likely to see additional fronts later in the week, helping to keep highs in the 40s with lows in the 30s through Thursday. Skies will be cloudy, thanks to over running moisture from the Pacific Ocean. That will also help to keep things cool.

As for precipitation...I still think we're looking at a few light rain showers each day, Monday through Thursday. Since overnight lows should stay just above freezing, that limits the potential for freezing rain or sleet. However, if it turns out to be a bit colder than originally forecast, we still could see some wintery precipitation, especially just north or west of Austin next week.

-Mark Murray

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Our forecast that delivers arctic air to Central Texas on Monday is still on track. The only change in today's forecast is that I've bumped up the expected arrival time of the front to Monday morning. Monday the 15th, we should see a high of around 62 degrees very early in the morning. Once the front hits, temperatures will quickly fall into the 40s where we will spend most of the afternoon with a gusty north wind. Then, for Tuesday, Wednesday and Thursday (the 16th through the 18th) look for highs only in the 40s with lows in the 30s. Skies will be cloudy for much of next week, thanks to Pacific moisture over running the shallow arctic air. That Pacific moisture is both good news and potentially bad news. The bad news is that if it's cold enough, this type of a weather pattern often favors both freezing rain and sleet (rather than snow). The good news is that right now it looks like overnight lows could remain just a couple of degrees above freezing. However, if the airmass turns out to be just a few degrees colder, then it's possible that parts of Central Texas, especially areas just to our north and west, may have to deal with wintery precipitation. Check back often, as I'll update the blog as soon as new information is available. -Mark Murray

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After a taste of wintery weather Tuesday night, get ready for more early next week. I routinely monitor at least three long-range computer forecast models for hints that a cold, arctic airmass is on the way to Texas. On Tuesday, all three models (one produced in the U.S., one in Canada, and another from Europe) all showed what is called an Omega Block setting up over the western half of the United States early next week. An Omega Block is where the upper-level winds take on the shape of the Greek letter, Omega, turned on its side. An Omega Block is a strong indicator that a significant Arctic airmass is heading our way, soon.

It still looks to me that the leading edge of the Arctic air could arrive in Austin as early as Monday night the 15th. However, in the past, I've seen the cold air arrive a day or so earlier than expected, or even a few days later...but, there is little doubt now that it is on the way. My biggest concern is that once the cold air arrives, upper-level winds over Texas could be blowing in from the Pacific Ocean. If that turns out to be the case, that would open the door to freezing rain, sleet, or even more snow for parts of Texas. It's still too early to tell where the wintery precipitation would set up. But, I woudn't be surprised to see highs no warmer than the 40s, with lows in the teens and 20s in our area for a few days next week.

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As of late Monday evening (December 8th), surface temperatures in central and northern Canada were between minus 20 and minus 40 degrees. Even though the long-range computer forecast models still haven't caught on, there are signs that this Arctic air will break free and will be heading for Texas by early next week. High temperatures on Monday the 15th are forecast to be at or below zero across much of Montana and North Dakota. Once this heavy, dense airmass starts moving south, very little will stand in its way. It could arrive in Texas as soon as Tuesday the 16th. It has the potential to produce wintery precipitation somewhere in Texas, but it's still too early to say exactly what parts of Texas could see ice or snow. If this all comes together, it could drive low temperatures down into the teens in parts of Central Texas. I'll update you again on Tuesday.

-Mark Murray

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Darrell writes...

"Mark, Any chance we will get any extreme arctic blasts in Central Texas the next 2-3 weeks? I have a weekend home outside of LaGrange and watch you when we are up on weekends...Great job on the air....Happy Holidays"

Darrell,

I'm starting to see signs that we could see some much colder air move into Texas during the week leading up to Christmas. It's too soon to say exactly when, or exactly how cold, but a few of the long-range models have been hinting that the jet stream will soon reach up into the Arctic and help pull down some of that very cold air into Central Texas. Stay tuned!

-Mark

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For only the 3rd time since the year 2000, most of Travis County, including Austin, is now experiencing "Exceptional" drought conditions. This is according to the U.S. Drought Monitor that was released on December 4th, 2008. There are five categories of drought...abnormally dry, moderate, severe, extreme, and exceptional. Most of Travis, Hays, Caldwell and Blanco cunties are included in the exceptional drought, the worst of all the categories. The only other times since 2000 that Travis County has been in an exceptional drought are for brief periods in August of 2008, and August of 2006.

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Joann writes...

"Hi--I am looking for 2008 rainfall totals for the month of Aug and Sep for the zip code 78717. Do you know where I can find them?"

I get this question quite often. You can find what you're looking for at www.kvue.com/weather. About halfway down the page, you'll see "Customize Your Weather". Enter the zip code or city name and hit "Submit". On the next page, use the drop-down menu boxes under "Detailed History" to select the date you'd like to see. In most cases, weather information is available for the past 10 years, if not longer. You'll find the high, low, rainfall and much more!! Under "Data Type", if you hit "Monthly", it'll display a nice calendar for that entire month!

-Mark Murray

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