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Mark's WEATHER BLOG |
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July 2009
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...but, I will briefly mention that we broke a record high temperature today at Camp Mabry with 104 degrees. The old record was 103 set back in 1980. Look for record breaking heat for the holiday weekend. Here are the records that should fall: Friday, July 3rd 101 degrees Watch that Heat Index, too! It should be around 105 degrees this weekend. Mark Late Tuesday night, Lake Travis dropped to just over 643' above mean sea level. That moved it up to 5th place on the list of lowest lake levels ever recorded. Here's the list as of Wednesday evening: 1) 614.18' August 1951 Travis continues to fall at the rate of about 2 feet per week. The LCRA projects Travis could be as low as 630' MSL by Labor Day without significant rainfall. This is the lowest level we've seen at Lake Travis during the month of July since July of 1964! The LCRA says Lake Travis stands at 51% of capacity tonight. Mark Murray Thanks to the rain, Tuesday was the coolest day in Austin in over a month! But, it wasn't cool enough to change our standing on the list of hottest Junes ever for Austin. We finished June with an average temperature of 86.6 degrees at Camp Mabry. Here's where that puts us: 1) June 2008 87.4 degrees 1) June 2008 99.4 degrees It's interesting to note that we've now seen 23 months in a row with above normal temperatures at Camp Mabry. The outlook for July calls for more above normal heat. If that holds true, that would make it 2 years in a row with warmer than normal temperatures in Austin. Mark Murray Mike writes... "Can you give an update as to where we stand? Are we going to be hotter than June 2008? It does seem hotter but a year is a long time ago so I'm sure to most of us it's hotter because it is in the present as opposed to the past. Shoot. I guess I don't even remember June 2008 as being hot." Mike, Today has been another triple-digit, record-breaking day for Austin, but it's not enough to beat last year. However, as of Monday afternoon, we've moved into 2nd place. Here's where we stand on the list of Hottest Junes Ever for Austin (Camp Mabry). 1) June 2008 87.6 degrees With only one day left in the month, there's no way we'll beat last year's record. And, even with a weak cold front in the area on Tuesday, we're not likely to cool off enough to drop back into 3rd place. So, it seems almost certain that June of 2009 will do down in the record books as the second hottest June ever in Austin's history. I'll post the final numbers Tuesday evening. Mark June of 2008 was the hottest June on record for Austin (Camp Mabry). Could June of 2009 break that record? Probably not. But, if my forecast for the next few days is correct, we'll end up in second place. Here are the standings as of Thursday night. 1) 2008 87.6 average temperature To calculate the 'average temperature', you simply add up all of the high temperatures and low temperatures for the month. Divide by 2, then divide by the number of days in the month...in this case, 30 days. Based on the month so far, and my 7 Day Forecast, it looks like we'll end up with an average temperature this month of 86.7 degrees...good enough for second place. It's the same story for the average high temperature for June. So far, the standings are... 1) 2008 99.4 degrees Again, based on the 7-Day Forecast, I project we'll end up with an average high of 99.1 degrees. Not enough to claim first place. And, that's O.K. with me! Mark Carole writes... Good question, Carole! I'll be talking about this on the news sometime over the next few days, but I though I'd give you a little preview. Yes, it looks like El Nino is set to return this summer. If it doesn't fizzle by this fall, that's good news for Austin. El Nino has little effect on our summer weather pattern here in Central Texas, but by this fall, things are looking up! Check out the link to the following maps from the Climate Prediction Center. They say that from this fall through next spring, Central Texas could see ABOVE normal precipitation! I know! Hard to believe! http://www.cpc.noaa.gov/products/predictions//multi_season/13_seasonal_outlooks/color/p.gif Thanks for writing! Mark El Nino is set to return this summer! That's great news for Austin, as El Nino conditions typically bring us more rainfall. And, with Central Texas still in a extreme to exceptional drought, we need all the help we can get. Sea surface temperatures have increased for 5 months in a row along the equator in the central Pacific Ocean....the region otherwise known as NINO 3.4. That's the region that seems to have the greatest impact on rainfall patterns in Texas. The blue shaded area is our La Nina, which is now history. The orange indicates that Pacific waters are now warmer than normal. Once the sea surface temperature gets to be 0.5 degrees C above normal, we're officially in an El Nino pattern. As you can see from this graph, we're just about there!
Here's the latest from the Climate Prediction Center who have now issued an "El Nino Watch". http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/analysis_monitoring/enso_advisory/ensodisc.html El Nino doesn't make much of a difference for Austin's summer rainfall, but should help us as we get into fall. It's too soon to say that this will end the drought, but signs are encouraging! Mark Murray The Space Shuttle Atlantis was unable to land in Florida on Friday due to stormy weather. There are six possible landing opportunities on Saturday...three in Florida and three in California. With a 60% chance of rain at Kennedy on Saturday, and with the disturbance in the Gulf of Mexico, a Florida landing does not seem likely. It is possible that the shuttle could remain in orbit until Monday, if NASA chooses. Of the six opportunities, only one would bring the shuttle over Central Texas. That would be on orbit 181 with a Kennedy landing at approximately 9:54 am CDT Saturday morning.
The shuttle would then be visible as it flies just south of Waco between 9:35 am and 9:40 am. But, again...this seems like a long shot to me. Here's a link to the other landing groundtracks from NASA for Saturday. Remember, the shuttle must fly within about 100 miles of Austin for us to see it. http://www.nasa.gov/mission_pages/shuttle/shuttlemissions/sts125/news/landing.html -Mark Murray The Space Shuttle is scheduled to land Friday morning in Florida. However, as of Thursday evening, NASA indicates that weather is likely to be a problem with too many storms in the path of Atlantis. If the weather clears, there could be two landing attempts on Friday. The first would be on orbit 165, landing at 9:00 am CDT. If NASA clears Atlantis to land on this orbit, the shuttle would pass over Brownsville, Texas between 8:40 and 8:45 am. Even during the day, if the clouds cooperate, you still should be able to see the shuttle. Here is the orbit 165 landing groundtrack. If NASA chooses to do another orbit and land on orbit 166, it's likely we could see the shuttle as it would fly over Texas between Austin and Waco. Landing would be at 10:39 am CDT, meaning the shuttle would be visible from Austin sometime between 10:19-10:24 am...assuming the clouds are not too thick. Here is the landing groundtrack for orbit 166.
If both landing attempts are impacted by weather, then there would be up to four attempts on Saturday...two in Florida, and two in California. Landing groundtracks for those attempts would be released on Friday, and I'll try to post them here. -Mark Murray The Space Shuttle Atlantis began its 11-day mission to the Hubble Space Telescope on Monday afternoon. It doesn't look like we'll have an opportunity to see the shuttle in orbit in the night sky over Texas on this trip. However, on past missions to the Hubble, the landing groundtrack has brought the shuttle over Texas on its way back to Florida. NASA does not release that information until a day or so before landing. I'll let you know on KVUE as well as on my blog if Atlantis will re-enter the Earth's atmosphere over Texas this time around. Here's more on the mission: -Mark Murray |
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Chief meteorologist Mark Murray joined KVUE in 1990. Ask Mark a question at weather@kvue.com.
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