The Polling Game
Okay we are going to break the PJ policy and do a poll post because I did a TV story about a Rasmussen poll a month ago showing Democrat Rick Noriega only four points behind Senator John Cornyn, and now the same poll shows something totally different.
The latest version of the same poll has Cornyn clobbering Noriega, 52% to 35%. (Note: Cornyn breaks 50%... something we haven't seen much yet.)
For his part, Rick Noriega's polished up his look and his game, darting around last week's state Democratic convention like some sort of celebrity (complete with the documentary cameras following him around). The substance of what he's saying hasn't changed much, but the stump speech delivery has improved since primary season.
I sat in the back of the press room during a Q and A with Texas press, and Noriega had a chummy style with reporters -- "Hey, you cut your hair" or "Elise, you look like a raccoon". (I'm told by Stiles that this is kind of a Houston politics type of style). But when it came to dealing with lots of questions on lots of topics, he was not as smooth or articulate. I think this was observed when Noriega debated Ray McMurrey during the primary debate.
Noriega Reports for Duty; Gets NYT Mention
U.S. Senate candidate and Texas National Guardsman Rick Noriega reported for duty today with the 1-141 Infantry Battalion. He's going to be away for two weeks, but will get a short leave in order to attend the upcoming state Democratic convention.
Meanwhile, Bush-bashing New York Times columnist Frank Rich dropped Noriega's name in his Sunday column.
There are other signs of Iraq's durable political lethality as well. Looking for a bright spot in their loss of three once-safe House seats in special elections this spring, Republicans have duly noted that the Democrats who won in Louisiana and Mississippi were social "conservatives," anti-abortion and pro-gun. They failed to notice that all three Democratic winners, including the two in the South, oppose the war. Even more remarkably, new polling in Texas finds that an incumbent Republican senator and Bush rubber stamp, John Cornyn, is only four percentage points ahead of his Democratic challenger, Rick Noriega, a fierce war critic who served in Afghanistan.
Rich is talking about two polls from a few weeks ago; but Cornyn's camp points to a
more recent poll* by GOP pollster Mike Baselice.
It shows incumbent Senator John Cornyn (49%) with a sixteen-point lead over Rick Noriega (33%). The margin of error is +/-3.5% points. The numbers are broken down by geographic locations, and in Houston Noriega comes closest to Cornyn, but 9% points behind.
*What am I doing writing about a poll?!?! I said I wouldn't do it on PJ, unless it was a Belo poll. Okay this is my last time. Hold me to it.
More Good Numbers for Noriega?
Research 2000 is polling US Senate races for progressive blog DailyKos. The Noriega campaign says when it's released, it will reflect this week's Rasmussen poll, which showed Noriega within striking distance of Cornyn. Look for that on DailyKos in about an hour, hour and a half.
Exit Polling Matches Tracking Polls
CNN's Texas exit polling shows this:
African-Americans: Obama 83%, Clinton 16%
Latinos: Clinton 64%, Obama 35%
These numbers are consistent with our polling from the last week. But in Texas, the Latino population outnumbers the African American population two, sometimes three to one, depending on the Senate district. So, while there are MORE African Americans who support Obama than there are Latinos who support Hillary, what percentage of tonight's electorate will these two groups actually represent? If Hispanic turnout is remarkable, then Clinton wins, for sure.
Belo Tracking Poll, Day Six
It's GOTV time. The race is still just as tight as it has been all week. Clinton is up 46% to 45%, still a statistical dead heat.
"Texas is a must-win for Clinton," writes pollster David Ianelli of Public Strategies. "She not only needs to win here to turn the tide after several consecutive losses, she needs to win convincingly to cut into Obama's national lead in delegates."
Changes within geographic regions say a lot more about what's happening here.
Compared to our chart from a few nights ago, there's mixed news for each candidate. Clinton has cut into Obama's lead in the DFW region, and has overtaken his lead in San Antonio. Previously, Obama has lead by at least 19 points in San Antonio, now Clinton is faring five points better in the area.
On the flip side, Obama has cut Clinton's lead in South Texas down to ten points, from Clinton's 20 point gap last week. He has also grown his lead in the delegate-rich Senate districts in Houston. His lead there is 17 points, up from between 8-13 points before.
See the poll here.
Belo Tracking Poll: Still All Tied Up
It's night five of the Belo Texas tracking poll, and the race is still within the margin of error, as it has been all week. It's now tied up, 46% Obama, 46% Clinton. Pollsters say the race will be decided on the strength of turnout by Blacks and Hispanics, whose loyalties are divided.
***See the poll here.***
"Taking a look at the largest voting blocks where the candidates had their biggest respective leads, we confirmed that this race will be decided by Hispanic and African American turnout. This is true for the popular vote, but also true for the most part with regard to the delegate count," writes pollster David Ianelli.
Our tracking poll shows:
Clinton leads among whites, 51% to 42%.
Clinton leads among Hispanics, 68% to 26%.
Obama leads among Blacks, 79% to 8%.
Pollsters at Public Strategies broke down various turnout models and what that would mean for each candidate. 2004 primary turnout of Hispanics was 24%, 2004 turnout for blacks was 21%. But this year both groups are expected to turn out at a higher proportion of the total electorate. The first column shows the expected result if the proportions stay the same as 2004. Then they adjust it the proportions:
"Note that even a very small change in turnout proportions among these groups will impact the outcome: the polling results suggest that if African turnout equals Hispanic turnout Obama will win," said Ianelli.
Among Democrats who already voted, Obama leads 56% to 44%.
Obama's camp believes this is good news, because haven't tended to as many traditional Democratic voters, who usually turnout to early vote. Then again, every "traditional" turnout model has been obliterated this year by the record turnout. So, we really won't know... until we know.
