The speaker's race this Sunday remains a Category 4 storm with spin-gusts up to 120mph. A few updates for you:

State Rep Aaron Pena, D-Edinburg, sent out a message on his microblog on Twitter to say state Rep. John Smithee, R-Amarillo, has filed for Speaker. We can't confirm with the Texas Ethics Commission since it's closed today. But Smithee was expected to file to present a contrast to ABC consensus candidate Straus.

Republican sources say state Rep Straus is beyond the magic number of 76 votes needed to win the speakership. Straus responded to me in a message last night that said, "I expect to have more to say tomorrow [Sunday]," but didn't go any further.

Lots of talk today among people who DON'T have votes for speaker as to whether Straus should publicly lay out the names of his 76 plus supporters. The arguments in favor of laying out the names is that a.) This is a zero-sum game, and it's a strong (if not convincing) show that Craddick will not be speaker again; b.) Supporters are less likely to waver if they already gave their public pledge to back Straus and c.) The expectations game among the chattering classes is now set to where Straus looks weak if he doesn't lay out the names, and that could make his support wobble.

The arguments against laying out the names are a.) It doesn't matter what the press, punditry or chattering classes think about what should or shouldn't be done... only 150 members get to vote. b.) Laying out the names now allows Craddick or whoever is Straus' main opponent to try to peel off the members on that list and there's a WHOLE WEEK in order to do that.

There's talk of a possible Straus press conference today, so if that happens we'll keep you posted. And watch out for storm surge.

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