Travis DA: The Numbers
Here's a look at how the candidates fared on April 8th versus March 4th, via Google Docs. Our Rocky-metaphor-loving poli-sci guy, Brian Smith, had a little extra time and put the Travis County DA race numbers into excel so we could take a closer look at what happened last night.
What the numbers show:
Turnout in the runoff was only 5% of registered voters, compared to a quarter of registered voters who made a pick in the DA race on March 4th.
The numbers that gave Montford hope heading into the runoff are the election day totals in the primary. (Again, see the spreadsheet.)There, she beat Lehmberg by about four hundred votes. But combine that with the early vote total in the primary, and the head-to-head shows Lehmberg was up on Montford by six points.
Assuming zero drop-off in primary turnout to the runoff, Montford already had to make up ground. But we all expected there would be A LOT of dropoff. That dropoff would widen Lehmberg's lead by math alone (fewer total voters, larger percentage difference).
So without dramatically expanding the runoff electorate or changing a bunch of hardcore Democrats minds about Lehmberg, Montford would lose. The margin, however, was surprising. I thought Montford would fare better because of her personality, skills on the stump and television ad blitz. Smith points to three keys to Lehmberg's victory:
1.) Small electorate, dominated by "solid" Lehmberg supporters versus Montford's election day "casual voters"
2.) Endorsements of Lehmberg by outgoing DA Ronnie Earle and third place finisher Gary Cobb.
3.) Accusations about Montford's ties to GOP special interests hurt bad in a Democratic runoff.
A fellow reporter observed this morning that the margin of victory proves any link to the Republican lobby is "radioactive" among Travis County Democrats. While the anonymous-blog-flap muddled the clarity of that line of attack, I guess it happened too late and didn't do enough to change voters minds.
Lehmberg says now that it's all over, she and Montford "are still friends". Montford said last night she's taking a look at what's next for her professionally, but that she "loves being a prosecutor".
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