Exit Polling Matches Tracking Polls
CNN's Texas exit polling shows this:
African-Americans: Obama 83%, Clinton 16%
Latinos: Clinton 64%, Obama 35%
These numbers are consistent with our polling from the last week. But in Texas, the Latino population outnumbers the African American population two, sometimes three to one, depending on the Senate district. So, while there are MORE African Americans who support Obama than there are Latinos who support Hillary, what percentage of tonight's electorate will these two groups actually represent? If Hispanic turnout is remarkable, then Clinton wins, for sure.
Possibly, but not definitely. Remember, the delegate count for each senate district is based on Democratic turnout in the past two general elections, and Hispanic turnout has been very poor in recent years. So even if they turn out in droves, districts on the border are getting shortchanged in terms of influence this election.
So it depends on whether she gets the Hispanic turnout in the areas that are richest in delegates: The border districts will produce 22 delegates, but the Houston-Galveston and DFW regions have 26 each, and Kirk Watson's district 14 (most of Travis County) has eight all by itself (the most of any single district). So she not only needs Hispanic turnout, but she needs it in the right places.
Well, shut my mouth. Looks like that turnout was indeed there for her.
Booyah. :)