Belo Tracking Poll: Still All Tied Up
It's night five of the Belo Texas tracking poll, and the race is still within the margin of error, as it has been all week. It's now tied up, 46% Obama, 46% Clinton. Pollsters say the race will be decided on the strength of turnout by Blacks and Hispanics, whose loyalties are divided.
"Taking a look at the largest voting blocks where the candidates had their biggest respective leads, we confirmed that this race will be decided by Hispanic and African American turnout. This is true for the popular vote, but also true for the most part with regard to the delegate count," writes pollster David Ianelli.
Our tracking poll shows:
Clinton leads among whites, 51% to 42%.
Clinton leads among Hispanics, 68% to 26%.
Obama leads among Blacks, 79% to 8%.
Pollsters at Public Strategies broke down various turnout models and what that would mean for each candidate. 2004 primary turnout of Hispanics was 24%, 2004 turnout for blacks was 21%. But this year both groups are expected to turn out at a higher proportion of the total electorate. The first column shows the expected result if the proportions stay the same as 2004. Then they adjust it the proportions:
"Note that even a very small change in turnout proportions among these groups will impact the outcome: the polling results suggest that if African turnout equals Hispanic turnout Obama will win," said Ianelli.
Among Democrats who already voted, Obama leads 56% to 44%.
Obama's camp believes this is good news, because haven't tended to as many traditional Democratic voters, who usually turnout to early vote. Then again, every "traditional" turnout model has been obliterated this year by the record turnout. So, we really won't know... until we know.
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