Belo Texas Tracking Poll, Night Four
Friday's results from Belo's Texas tracking poll show the Democratic race still deadlocked. Hillary Clinton wins back her one point lead on Friday, now up on Barack Obama 46% to 45%. Results from all four nights of tracking have been within the 4 point margin of error.
Pollster David Ianelli:
The seesaw battle for a one point lead over the past couple of days underscores the critical importance for both campaigns of mobilizing their supporters and getting people out to the polls next Tuesday. One thing is clear however -- Hillary Clinton will not come out of the Texas primary with the share of Texas delegates she needs to catch Obama nationally.
SUBGROUPS
Where's the movement in the past few days? Key demographic subgroups. What was a 29-point gap in favor of Hillary Clinton among Hispanics Thursday (61%-32%) has climbed to a 40-point gap for Clinton (67%-27%) after our latest night of interviewing.
"This is the first good news we've seen for Hillary Clinton in the past few days," writes Ianelli.
In the face of that, Obama continues to hold black voters overwhelmingly, 76%-13%.
See the poll results from day four.
PEOPLE WHO ALREADY VOTED
The sample size for the people who already voted is so small that the results swing wildly, but the one consistency each night is that more than half the people who say they already voted voted for Barack Obama. The latest results show 58% Obama, 42% Clinton.
UPDATE: These are results from Friday, but pollsters were NOT in the field Friday night, which means we will NOT get tracking results today (Saturday).
They are back in the field Saturday and Sunday night, which means we'll have new data tomorrow and Monday.
Elise:
Thanks for posting all this info. It's been fascinating.
David