It's all about the Latinos in Texas now, as they could make up anywhere between a quarter to one-third of Democratic primary voters next month. In California, exit polling showed Latinos picked Clinton by a 2-1 margin, and she's counting on deep roots with the Texas Latino community to help carry her to a win in our state's primary.

We spent lunchtime at the East Austin eatery, Joe's, where Austin Latinos have been gathering to eat enchiladas and talk life, love and politics for more than four decades. (Today's special? Carne Guisada, yum.) Here's the video.

The regulars there remind us Texas Latinos are not one monolithic group, not even close:

"You can't even compare Texas Mexican-Americans to California Mexican-Americans, much less Puerto Rican Texans," said Lonnie Limon, a young Latino we chatted with at the lunch counter. "I keep going back and forth between Obama and Hillary."

Most of the folks we talked to seemed loyal to Hillary Clinton, and told us it's largely because they love Bill, and trust her on issues of healthcare and helping the poor. When asked about the so-called black-brown divide, some said off-camera that it does exist among older generations of Latinos, but that it's overstated. Lonnie from the lunch counter said that he sees younger Latinos trending Obama, because they don't feel obligated to vote as their parents or grandparents do.

UT government professor Jim Henson, who heads the Texas Politics project, says it's unclear whether Latino loyalty to Clinton can hold in Texas. Exit polling in successive primaries shows whites, working class, and even women have slowly been moving toward Obama as they have gotten to know him better. Is there any reason to believe Latino voters will be less susceptible to changing their minds than other groups?

"That's the 64 thousand dollar question," Henson said.

A lot of ink has been spilled on this topic already. For more reading, check out this NY Times piece about Obama having to navigate the difficult racial terrain ahead.

1 Comments

Bodhisattva said:

When you say Hispanic voters "could make up anywhere between a quarter to one-third of Democratic primary voters next month," do you mean possible voters? likely voters? actual voters?

The numbers I've looked at in the past suggest they are present in the population and among registered voters in high percentages, but not so high among actual voters.

February 18, 2008 7:16 PM

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