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The Lead Changes in the Belo Tracking Poll

10:01 PM Thu, Feb 28, 2008 |
Elise Hu

It's night number three of our Belo Texas Tracking Poll. Barack Obama now takes the lead over Hillary Clinton (46% to 45%).

"The race continues to trend slowly but steadily toward Barack Obama, keeping in mind these changes are slight and within the margin of error," writes pollster David Ianelli of Public Strategies.

dempref3.JPG

****See the poll here****

SUBGROUPS
In the primaries that have taken place to date, Clinton has won the Anglo and Hispanic vote, while Barack Obama has won the African American vote by large margins. When it comes to the racial/ethnic groups in Texas, Obama is doing better with African Americans than Clinton is doing with Hispanics and, conversely, he is having more success cutting into her support with Hispanics than she is in cutting into his support among African
Americans.

GEOGRAPHIC BREAKDOWN
This is new for tonight. The pollsters created six groupings of state senate districts and looked at how the race is breaking in those groupings. (Delegates in Texas are allocated by state senate districts, Travis County - where Austin is - has the most delegates in the state, at eight.)

I thought this breakdown was especially interesting given that different geographic areas have starkly different delegate counts, and Obama leads in all areas with high delegate concentrations. He does especially well in Austin, where he is polling at 67%. The threshold he needs to break in Travis County is 67.5% in order to take six of eight Travis County delegates.

demdistricts.3.JPG

Ianelli says Barack Obama enjoys majority support in DFW (36 delegates), Houston (34 delegates), Austin (8 delegates), and even San Antonio (10 delegates), while Hillary Clinton enjoys majority support in the Valley/border regions (22 delegates) and the remainder of the state (17 delegates).

ISSUES
Among likely Democratic primary voters, the economy/jobs continues to be the most important issue in their vote for a nominee. Nearly one quarter (23%) volunteer the economy and jobs, while health care runs a close second with 19%. Another 16% volunteer the war in Iraq.

But another new shift here. Those who say the economy is their number one issue now support Obama over Clinton (48%-42%). Previously, Clinton held a 47%-44% lead among economy/jobs voters. Clinton still holds a lead among healthcare voters; Obama has grown his lead on Iraq War voters.

See the data tables here

Your thoughts?



4 Comments

Lee Nichols said:

Hey Elise, the most recent "already voted" numbers say Obama 63%, Clinton 37%, which is wildly inconsistent with the first two nights. Is it possible that is a typo? Perhaps it should be 53%-47%?

mike said:

what about this stuff on clinton people of texas..While Hillary Clinton battles Barack Obama on the campaign trail, a judge in Los Angeles is quietly preparing to set a trial date in a $17 million fraud suit that aims to expose an alleged culture of widespread corruption by the Clintons and the Democratic Party.

At the conclusion of a hearing tomorrow morning before California Superior Court Judge Aurelio N. Munoz, lawyers for Hollywood mogul Peter F. Paul will begin seeking sworn testimony from all three Clintons – Bill, Hillary and Chelsea – along with top Democratic Party leaders and A-list celebrities, including Barbra Streisand, John Travolta, Brad Pitt and Cher.
.

Elise said:

Lee -- it actually COULD be the right number. I can check with the pollster today, but basically the "already voted" number is about 17% of the sample size, 1,200. That means the sample of already voted voters is so small that the margin of error is something like 6.5 and given to wild swings. It's not a reliable number. (If you believe any of this is reliable, that is. You know how I feel about polls.)

Carla From San Diego said:

Hi Elise how you today ?
But, in reference to this post below and from news that have and is being stated about this possible suite . I really don't understand the full nature of this possibility , as it is I am a whole hearted first time voter . Please help me to understand the nature of this possible suit?
Thanks!

Obama "08" / YES WE CAN

Sincerly,
-Lcs

__________________________________________________

mike said:
what about this stuff on clinton people of texas..While Hillary Clinton battles Barack Obama on the campaign trail, a judge in Los Angeles is quietly preparing to set a trial date in a $17 million fraud suit that aims to expose an alleged culture of widespread corruption by the Clintons and the Democratic Party.

At the conclusion of a hearing tomorrow morning before California Superior Court Judge Aurelio N. Munoz, lawyers for Hollywood mogul Peter F. Paul will begin seeking sworn testimony from all three Clintons – Bill, Hillary and Chelsea – along with top Democratic Party leaders and A-list celebrities, including Barbra Streisand, John Travolta, Brad Pitt and Cher.


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Elise Hu is KVUE's Political Reporter and your dedicated blogger. There's too much politics in Texas to fit into a newscast, so the fun continues here. Email your ideas and feedback to ehu@kvue.com.

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