I was startled by a statistic I read in a business article the other day. It said that per capita the U.S. has three times the retail store space of European nations. Just as the homebuilders overbuilt and homebuyers overspent, developers and the retail industry went on a spending spree. It all seemed a little exaggerated, but today I met Bob Lewis of Development Strategies here in St. Louis. The location was a luncheon for real estate professionals. The first words I heard uttered by a participant were, "I haven't done a deal in a year." Lewis told me that wasn't that unusual these days. Lewis says the U.S. probably "only" has twice as much retail space as we need. Not very comforting. Although he believes St. Louis is in better shape than hot spots like Las Vegas, he says strip shopping centers are the most vulnerable and that two or three St. Louis area malls will likely go under. He also said this won't be any short bust with a quick recovery. He says retail space in tough locations--poor transportation and low income levels--will remain empty for long periods and may have to be converted to other uses, including residential. We may not be headed for a depression, but it sure seems Americans have been living beyond their means and now we'll be paying for it for years.

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