11:05 PM Sat, May 17, 2008 | Permalink
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Clinton wins Kentucky. Obama wins Oregon. Somehow we know these results days before voters in those states cast their ballots. It's what the polls claim will happen.
Polling is so good (they failed recently in New Hampshire), we can predict a lot based on what pollsters are telling us now, and the fight for the White House is shaping up to be very close, again.
Months before the November general election, we can make some very accurate predictions.
Some believe John McCain holds the advantage over Barack Obama.
Some think Obama can outcampaign McCain.
Others say Hillary Clinton is the Democrats' only chance to win swing states like Pennsylvania, Ohio and Florida.
In other words, nobody knows. It's anyone's to win (unless you think Clinton will drop out after votes in Oregon are tallied on Tuesday night).
For example, Gallup says McCain leads Obama by three percent nationally.
Quinnipiac University, however, says Obama is enjoying a seven percent lead.
In Pennsylvania, a Quinnipiac poll shows Obama leading by nine percent, yet Rasmussen gives McCain a slight edge.
What voters in Florida decide could say a great deal about who is elected President. That's how George W. Bush got into the White House in 2000, with the help of hanging chads and the Supreme Court. Ohio was a major key to victory in 2004, combined with a successful campaign against gay marriage.
In Ohio and Florida, most polls show McCain leading Obama, but Clinton beating McCain.
Some Obama supporters say he should select Gov. Ted Strickland of Ohio as his running mate, as a way to guarantee Ohio's electoral votes for the Obama camp, possibly enough to put him over the top.
Others say Sen. Jim Webb, the war hero from Virginia, would be an even better choice, giving Obama a chance to run the table in the South.
Assuming Obama gets the Democratic nomination, which candidate will be first to select a running mate, and from what state?
The decision could be crucial, according to the polls.
Of course, you can't always trust them.
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