Campaign Analysis
By John Mills, News 4

It looks like this is it.

Barack Obama, a Senator from Illinois, is poised to win the Democratic nomination for president.

Yes, Hillary Clinton is still fighting and could end up winning, but let's look at the facts.

Obama has gone undefeated against Clinton in every primary and caucus since Super Tuesday -- Nebraska, Louisiana, Washington, Maine, Maryland, Virginia, Washington, D.C. and the Virgin Islands.

That's eight wins. Big wins. We're talking more than 60% of the vote. Clinton received less than 40% of the vote in Virginia. It wasn't close.

What's more, exit polls show Obama is winning support from many voters who recently supported Clinton, especially women and seniors.

According to CNN exit polls, 43% of women voted for Obama on Super Tuesday. This week, Obama got 59%, a stunning majority.

Until recently, older voters largely supported Clinton. On Super Tuesday, Obama had the support of only 35% of Democrats age 65 and older. This week, he got 51%.

Rural voters are also supposed to be one of Clinton's strengths. On Super Tuesday, Obama won only 35% of rural Democrats. This week in Maryland, it's 59%.

Next Tuesday, Obama is widely expected to win the Wisconsin primary and caucuses in Hawaii. That would give him 10 straight wins and increase his lead even more. Clinton's campaign has warned February will not be a good month and has replaced its campaign manager and her deputy.

Clinton's last stand is in Ohio and Texas, where primaries are scheduled for March 4. Her supporters say she must win both states and Pennsylvania on April 22 by significant margins. The question is whether she will stay in the race that long, faced with the possibility of increasing pressure from prominant Democrats to withdraw.

If Clinton does make a dramatic come back, primaries on May 6 in Indiana and North Carolina could make a difference. But at this stage, don't count on it.

---