4Warn Weather BLOG

October 2008
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Recently by Steve Templeton


Fall Foliage Update

8:10 PM Tue, Oct 07, 2008 |

With the weather turning dry through this upcoming weekend and possibly our next storm chance coming Monday night into Tuesday of next week, we should have plenty of time to enjoy the outdoors. But is it a good time to see the Fall foliage across the area?

I found a great web site from the Missouri Department of Conservation, click here, that updates the Fall foliage cond...



Autumn Begins 10:44 AM Monday!

4:10 PM Sun, Sep 21, 2008 |

Since this Summer hasn't been as hot as past years, maybe it is easy to believe that Fall starts Monday. The Autumnal Equinox marks the beginning of Autumn and that occurs at 10:44 AM.

Why is it such a specific time?
At that time the sun crosses the celestial equator, meaning the sun is directly in line with the equator at that moment.

Why Is It When Fall Starts?
But ...



Holy Curvature Batman-Tropical Storm Hanna

4:15 PM Fri, Sep 05, 2008 |

Did you see the wicked turn North in Tropical Storm Hanna? Check out the two links below, one is a radar loop of the storm and the other is the historical track of the storm.

http://www.wunderground.com/tropical/tracking/at200808_radar.html#a_topad (might take a few seconds to load the loop)

>> Continue reading: Holy Curvature Batman-Tropical Storm Hanna



Gustav, Our Rain Chances, Hanna and Ike

4:05 PM Mon, Sep 01, 2008 |


Hurricane Gustav came ashore about 70 miles Southwest of New Orleans as a strong category 2 hurricane with sustained winds of 110 mph. Because the intensity weakened a bit (though still a big time storm) and because the storm hit much farther away from New Orelans, the Crescent City was spared the type of damage Katrina brought. But it was the fact that (so far) the levees have not failed that has made the big differe...



Switching Into A Wet Pattern

4:02 PM Wed, Aug 20, 2008 |

It's been two weeks since we've had measurable rain at St. Louis Lambert Airport, but that's about to change. While it won't be a rainout the next four days, at the very least we have a rain chance in the forecast tonight through the weekend. This has been an unusual dry spell in what has been a very wet year so far. In fact, at one point in July the Weather Service deemed this the wettest start to the year on record for St. Louis.

...



Storm Damage Photos

8:37 PM Thu, Aug 07, 2008 |

jerseyville_3.jpg

This large tree smashed in the roof of an SUV and blew out the back windows. It was a massive tree that was uprooted from what is est...



Big Time Heat On The Way

3:44 PM Thu, Jul 31, 2008 |


The History:
Last year on August 2nd we began a major heat wave with 13 of 14 days 95 or hotter. The hottest temperature of the year was during that stretch on August 15th at 105!

The Forecast:
Will we repeat that this August as we expect intense heat to build in on Sunday? It doesn't look like we'll have as long a stretch of major heat, but all the forecast models are showing a co...



Mini Heat Wave Breaks

8:21 PM Mon, Jul 21, 2008 |

On Tuesday a cold front will bring a cool down to the area, ending eight days in a row of 90 degree heat or higher, including Sunday's 99 degree high and Monday's 98 degree high.

Heat Index: With more heat surely around the corner (it's not even August yet) I thought I'd explain a little bit about the heat index. Firstly, you may hear us say "heat index" and "feels like temperature" and wonder what's the diff...



Are We Done With Flooding?

5:55 PM Sat, Jul 05, 2008 |

As the River falls, some may be thinking that we're done with the flood threat. But the Mississippi River is still not below flood stage in our area and so the flooding impact continues. However, take a look at the chart below where the line graph forecasts the falling river level in Winfield. The going forecast has the Mississippi falling to below flood stage in Winfield this weekend. At St. Louis the Mississippi should fall below flood...



Levee Breaches Change The Flood Forecast

5:45 PM Thu, Jun 19, 2008 |

*****Yet Another Update, Thursday Evening June 19th**********

We Never Stop looking over the latest flood information and there has been a significant change. Because of levee breaches North of St. Louis, the crest forecast along the Mississippi has changed significantly. Along the Mississippi in our viewing area the crest is forecast to be 1 to 2 feet lower than previously thought. This means levels should be below the record crest...



Mississippi River Flooding, Especially Near Grafton, IL

4:28 PM Tue, Jun 10, 2008 |

Yesterday's blog focused on the Mississippi at St. Louis and today I wanted to point out not only the flooding all along the Mississippi into early next week, but especially Grafton, IL. The Mississippi at Grafton is forecast to rise to 28.5' which is 10.5' above flood stage. That's right on the borderline of what's classified by the weather service as "Major Flooding".

Here's a list of what is impacted in the Grafton area when the...



Mississippi & Missouri Flooding

5:16 PM Mon, Jun 09, 2008 |

After a weekend of heavy rain in Nebraska, Iowa, Wisconsin and Northern Illinois, much of that rain will run into streams that eventually dump into the Missouri or Mississippi River. Because of this, the Missouri and Mississippi Rivers will be on the rise into this upcoming weekend. In fact, below is the river level graph on the Mississippi River at St. Louis. You can see the sharp rise in the water level forecasted for this weekend. At St...



Air Quality Forecasting Begins

5:18 PM Tue, May 20, 2008 |

Today is the official start to what we call our "Aircast", which is an air quality forecast for theSt. Louis area. Again this year we're proud to be the storm team chosen to create your air quality forecast, which updates in the mid to late afternoon on KMOV.com or will be featured in our evening weathercasts.

This year we will begin incorporating particulate matter (dust and small particulates), however once again it will be low le...



Frosty Weather

9:14 PM Mon, Apr 28, 2008 |


First we had some sleet or small hail today and now we're talking about a frost or freeze tonight.

It may sound like it's late in the season for a frost, so I did some digging. If we hit 32 at Lambert airport it would tie for the 5th latest frost on record in St. Louis. However, the latest frost was on May 10th back in 1966. I checked with the Weather Service today and they said the average last frost for St. Louis is around ...



Close to 80, but no cigar

5:12 AM Wed, Apr 23, 2008 |

The high temperature Tuesday was 79, which is above the average high of 69, but it means we still haven't hit 80 at Lambert International Airport. Now, I've seen quite a few low 80s on Tuesday from our weatherbug netowrk (links for those sites are in the middle of the weather page here on KMOV.com), but we just can't seem to get to 80 at Lambert. But we're forecasting temperatures near 80 for Wednesday, which could be our first 80 degree or ...



What's Inside Hail?

8:35 PM Tue, Apr 22, 2008 |

hail rings.jpg

Click Image F...



Another Shake, Rattle & Roll?

3:58 PM Sat, Apr 19, 2008 |


Everyone is asking, "Did you feel the earthquake"? I'm so dissapointed that I slept through it and did not feel the aftershock later in the morning. Oh Well, maybe next time. It turns out there have been more than 10 smaller after shocks, even a few today.

The strongest aftershock today (Saturday) hit around Noon. However, it rated a 2.8 which no one likely noticed except for geologists studying and monitoring the area. Here...



Storms, Flooding & River Levels

3:48 PM Thu, Apr 10, 2008 |

It may be a busy night in the 4Warn storm center. A potent storm system is swinging through the Midwest and will produce several areas of strong to severe storms including the possibility of tornadoes. If the storms do flair up in our area, we'll go into storm mode sending our crews out across the area while Kent and I track the latest storms and provide live updates on KMOV.com and channel 4. While there is a slight risk of severe...



Tuesday Storm Threat

3:23 PM Mon, Apr 07, 2008 |


I just finished looking over some of the new information regarding Tuesday's storm threat. It looks like there will be a slight risk of severe weather across the area, with an increased threat between Noon and 9pm. Before Noon and in the early morning hours a few storms from Western and Central Missouri may still be producing small hail as they weaken and move towards the Bi-state. So, while morning rain and storms are possible, the ...



An Active Week Ahead

3:27 PM Sun, Apr 06, 2008 |

Despite today being a beautiful Sunday, it looks like we have a couple stormy days ahead this week. It's not going to be one of those weeks with a chance of rain every day, but it looks like both Tuesday and Thursday could see storms with a potential for heavy rain.

Tuesday morning a warm front moves in with more moisture which should produce some morning showers and a few storms across the area. But it's Tuesday afternoon that looks...



Coolest Winter Since 2001

4:18 PM Thu, Mar 13, 2008 |

This Winter on average across the US and the globe is the coolest since 2001. While it was the coolest in recent years, it was still above the normal. You can find out more from this article, click here.

So this got me thinking...let's look at our numbers here in St. Louis for this Winter. By the way, to make keeping climate records easier, ...



Biggest Snow of The Winter In St. Louis

8:21 PM Tue, Mar 04, 2008 |

Tuesday March 4th was the biggest snow of the year in St. Louis with 10" officically at Lambert airport (the official measuring station for the St. Louis area). It puts our 2007-2008 winter snowfall total at 30.1" so far (could be a bit more before it's all over too). But this season's snowfall has not been rivaled in nearly 15 years since the Winter of 1992-1993 which had 30.3". So, as many people have guessed this is a snowy Winter compar...



Wintry Storm Totals

3:51 PM Fri, Feb 22, 2008 |

Active_Screen.png

Thanks to our friends at the National Weather Service for putting together this detailed map of storm totals from our several waves of sleet, freezing rain and some snow. Once again the area South of St. Louis including Potosi, Farmington and over to Sparta, Illinois saw the highest amounts of sleet and free...



What's The Deal With Sleet?

3:51 PM Tue, Feb 12, 2008 |

A few people at the station were asking the question, "If we're getting so much ice South of St. Louis, why aren't there more power outages?" Kent and I addressed that on the evening shows Monday night and even did a brief explainer of how sleet forms. But I'll go into a bit more detail here.

To answer the question above, keep in mind that sleet and freezing rain are both ice. But they form in different ways.

It's freezing ra...



Extreme Weather

3:31 PM Wed, Feb 06, 2008 |

In the past ten days we've had 3 days with severe storm warnings, an 8" snow storm, 2 days with highs in the 70s and 3 days with highs near 30. It's been a wild ride and if you caught our forecast tonight, we don't have any major storms in the next 5 days, though we do have a high of 50 Friday and then a low of 12 by Sunday morning.

So what's causing this extreme weather? There are so many variables involved in daily and weekly wea...



A Stormy Night!

2:13 PM Tue, Jan 08, 2008 |

A slow moving cold front combined with record warmth and lots of available moisture brought an extended round of spring like severe severe storms to the News 4 viewing area last night and this morning.

Most of the storm reports in our area were from hail or high winds/wind damage. Hail of 0.75-1inch diameter was reported in Palmyra, Hannibal, Silex, Eolia, Washington, Marthasville, Cottlesville, Cuba, Sullivan and Bourbon, Missouri....



Don't Forget Your Pets!

2:14 PM Wed, Jan 02, 2008 |


With the coldest air of the season upon us and another night with lows near or into the single digits, it's a good time remember your pets. Pets can get frostbite just like humans, it's best to keep them indoors during this cold spell or monitor them closely if they're outdoors for a while.

On walks with your dog watch for anti-freeze which drips on the pavement from cars. Ant-freeze may taste good to your dog, but it's leth...



Big Temperature Change

1:41 PM Mon, Dec 31, 2007 |

Get ready for some big temperature changes. This New Year's Eve night the temperature will fall through the 30s to near 28 around Midnight. But the wind will crank up too and strong winds will make the wind chill a big factor through New Year's Day as well. Here's a look at my temperature and wind chill forecast for tonight through Wednesday morning

New Year's Eve Midnight
Temp= 28 Wind Chill= 16

Tues...



The Moon & Mars

10:11 PM Sun, Dec 23, 2007 |


Many calls came in about how close the moon and Mars were tonight. They appeared to be nearly touching and they were full and bright. Althought not quite as close, you can still catch a glimpse of the Moon and Mars in the Eastern sky on Christmas Eve night.

Here's a link to more info: Click here

...



Cold & Snowy Start To December

8:17 PM Tue, Dec 18, 2007 |

The fine folks at our local National Weather Service have been digging into the record books, and we thank them for some interesting stats.

It turns out that it was a colder than average start to December. 16 of the first 17 days of this month had morning lows at or below the freezing mark of 32. Just yesterday (Monday) we hit the coldest low of the season at 11 degrees at Lambert. And of course we know it was a snowy start to the m...



Keeping Up With The Changes

8:10 PM Fri, Dec 14, 2007 |

One of the reasons snowfall is so difficult to forecast is because small changes in the forecast have large impacts on our snowfall expectation. And if you read Matt's blog below you know one model had flurries and the other had 3-5" for us. Here's why we lose hair over snowfall forecasts...the model that showed flurries is now pumping out nearly 10" of snow for St. Louis! On the other hand, the other model has stuck to it's guns and is sti...



Weekend Snow Chances

8:14 PM Wed, Dec 12, 2007 |

Oh brother, it just keeps coming! So, before I get into some details on the weekend snow chances, I want to make mention of what's happening tonight into Thursday morning. From Rolla to St. Louis to Litchfield and Northwest we don't expect a whole lot of wet weather, but some light rain, sleet, snow is possible with little to no accumulation. Southeast of that line we expect nearly all rain. Although we expect any wet weather to move out j...



Ice or Rain...What's Next?

4:26 PM Tue, Dec 11, 2007 |

It seems like every day we are thrown another shot of moisture and temperatures near freezing at some point in the day. So, it begs the question, what's next?

Rain is the answer for most of us, including the St. Louis metro for Tuesday evening. Areas Northwest however, may see some ice later this evening as temperatures approach and drop below freezing. The farther Northwest, the better chance for ice accumulation. Right now it app...



More Winter Weather? Or Just Rain?

6:35 PM Fri, Dec 07, 2007 |

So matt just blogged about our first encounter this season with some Wintery weather, and now we will be very close to the freezing line this weekend as some wet weather moves through.

So, let me take you through the details on what we're thinking (Firday evening) for this weekend storm:

Ice will mainly be Northwest of the St. Louis metro. While some spots in the viewing area may see some brief periods of freezing rain or driz...



Overrunning

7:56 PM Wed, Nov 28, 2007 |


Overrunning is a term that describes why we are thinking there's a possibility of freezing rain or sleet Saturday morning as this wet weather begins.

Overrunning is when warm and moist air runs over on top of a shallow dome of cold air at the surface. I'll probably over simplifiy this, but the analogy of a speed bump comes to mind. Your tires have no choice but to run up and over the speed bump. Similarily, warm air is runn...



Wet Weekend Weather

7:49 PM Tue, Nov 27, 2007 |

Well, it looks like some wet weather is headed this way for the weekend. The big question is what type of wet weather? Rain, Snow, Freezing rain or sleet (what about all of the above)?

It's too early to have that kind of confidence in the forecast models to pinpoint a precipitation type and timing. Sometimes when you're looking at a storm forecast like this and it's several days away, you focus more on the track of the Low pressure, ...



Frosty Football Weather: Mizzou vs. Kansas

10:01 PM Fri, Nov 23, 2007 |

I'm not sure a lot of people at the beginning of the college football season would have pegged the Missouri vs. Kansas game as this BIG. You may have watched LSU fall to Arkansas on Ch. 4 on Friday and now the Mizzou vs. Kansas game will probably have the eyes of the nation watching for possible National Title game implications. At this point, I know what you're thinkging...is this blog from Steve Savard or Steve Templeton?

All righ...



An Early Glimpse At Holiday Weather & Travel Troubles

4:47 PM Thu, Nov 15, 2007 |


Thanksgiving is still 7 days away, but many are already making or finalizing plans for the holiday. With such an important holiday ahead of us, the 4Warn Storm Team has been keeping a close eye on the forecast for next week, and trust me when I say it's a difficult forecast. Part of the difficulty is due to the fact that Thanksgiving is still 7 days away. And we've seen these extended forecast projections completely reverse by the t...



Warm Up Ahead

3:34 PM Wed, Nov 07, 2007 |

What a chilly morning! It was 27 degrees for the low this morning from the sensor St. Louis-Lambert Airport. That makes today the coldest morning of the season so far. It hasn't been this chilly to start a day since April 8th when it was 26.

But for those of you who dislike the chilly air, there's hope. Well...sort of. Eventually it will get much colder, after all we're going into Winter. But in the short term, it's not likel...



Fire Watch Tuesday

10:00 PM Mon, Nov 05, 2007 |

The cold is what will affect all of us Tuesday, but it's interesting that we also have a fire watch in Southeast Missouri for the counties of St. Francois, Ste. Genevieve and Madison. I know, you're thinking...isn't it too cold for brush fires?

Strong and gusty winds help to fuel fires or force controlled fires get out of control. But these winds are blowing in the chilly air (high in the upper 40s Tuesday). Although chilly, this ai...



What To Expect This November

8:48 PM Thu, Nov 01, 2007 |

It's hard to believe November is already here. But the weather is starting to match the calendar now. I thought we could look ahead at the month of November by comparing the climate normals from today November 1st to what we typically have by November 30th.

Nov. 1st Normal High: 61 Low: 42

Nov. 30th Normal High: 47 Low: 31

It's interesting to note that the high by the end of this month is typically close to the wha...



Halloween Weather

7:57 PM Tue, Oct 30, 2007 |

So tonight on the 5'Oclock news Kent talked about how we can get just about any type of weather on Halloween. Many of you may remember 1993 with a trace of snow. Sure it wasn't a snow storm, but snow on Halloween? And then there's been years when Halloween has been in the 80s, even close to 90! The record high is 88 in 1968.

Here's some other interesting stats for Halloween:
Coldest High= 41 (1993)
Coldest Low= 26 (18...



National Weather Service Open House

3:20 PM Wed, Oct 24, 2007 |


Our friends at the National Weather Service are having an open house this Saturday!

It's from 9am to 3pm out at the National Weather Service offices located near Weldon Spring, MO in St. Charles County. In fact, I've posted a link below and the weather service has provided directions and detials about what you'll see when you visit.


>> Continue reading: National Weather Service Open House



Storm Survey

10:00 PM Fri, Oct 19, 2007 |

The National Weather Service Storm Survey team has been working hard lately. I spoke to the Weather Service today by phone and they had multiple crews out in the field. They were looking closely at the damage from the Paris, MO tornadoes from Wednesday night and also looking for possible confirmation of reported tornadoes in and around Bond, Co. Illinois.

As of Friday night there are no preliminary reports out on the unconfirmed torn...



Storm Threat Update

7:50 AM Wed, Oct 17, 2007 |

Well, the energetic storm system continues to bring a threat of storms to our area today through the overnight. Below is the Storm Prediction Center's severe risk for today through tomorrow morning.

There is a threat for all types of severe weather including hail, wind damage and tornadoes, from this afternoon on. For St. Louis, it appears that threat especially increases tonight through about 5 to 7am. That means there is a chance ...



Energetic Storm System Heading This Way

9:47 AM Tue, Oct 16, 2007 |

A storm system will drop into the High Plains Wednesday and help to push warm and moist air into the St. Louis area Wednesday afternoon. A few storms are possible across our area in the afternoon and evening. We may have a few strong to severe storms, especially in the evening for St. Louis, but the higher risk for severe weather during the day is in Western Missouri and Kansas, closer to the core of this storm system.

As that sto...



Rain Chances This Week

6:50 AM Mon, Oct 15, 2007 |

"Much Needed Rain" is a popular phrase meteorologists are using this week. We have a couple chances for showers and storms starting with today through tomorrow morning. Another chance arrives late Wednesday through Thursday morning.

But the reason we say "much needed" is because most of the area is in a drought. In fact, parts of our viewing area in Illinois are in a severe drought. Below is the latest drought monitor. If you wan...



Winter Outlook

7:12 AM Thu, Oct 11, 2007 |

It's fitting that on the day we have the coolest air since April we start looking ahead to the Winter Outlook. In the previous blog we posted a link for the average frost dates, but now let's talk about the climate outlook for December through February as the latest forecast from the Climate Prediction Center has just been released.

On a national level the forecast calls for good chances of a warmer than normal winter, but slightl...



A Week of Transition

7:44 AM Mon, Oct 08, 2007 |


This is going to be a week of transition, into not only "cooler" temperatures but down right chilly temperatures Thursday and Friday morning.

First though, a front approaching this afternoon will cause showers and some thunderstorms. This won't be drought busting rainfall, but some isolated heavy downpours can be expected. Some of those storm cells with heavy rain could produce a lot of lightning and gusty winds but windepsrea...



Storm Survey Update

3:46 PM Wed, Oct 03, 2007 |

Steve here, I have some preliminary results from the storm survey crews at the National Weather Service. I should emphasize that this is preliminary and n