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4Warn Weather BLOG |
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November 2009
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Recently by Steve Templeton
8.52" October 2009 Precipitation (so far) How much rain fell in my neighbrohood Thursday? Click here for a list of rainfall totals across the area. So far the month of October is the 3rd coldest on record, and the r...
While this cold snap is small in the big scheme of things and certainly won't be the determining factor in our winter temperatures, it is fun and interesting to look back in the history books and see if a cold start to October equates to a cold winter. Since th... It won't be until Friday, Saturday and Sunday morning's but we have some cold air coming back. So, if you're thinking about your outdoor plants, these are the days to watch. Friday AM Low= 40 While this is my forecast for the St. Louis area, low-lying spots and rural areas certainly can be cooler. Being away from the heat of the city and your local topography play an importa... The link above will show you when and where to look in the night sky to see the shuttle Discovery and the International Space Station. The shuttle has undocked from the space station, so y... It was the 48th coolest Summer on record. That may not sound remarkable (and it's not) considering that we had the 8th coolest July on record. However, you have to think way back to June when we had a pretty good hot spell that helped push our Summer average temperatures up this year. In fact, June was the 28th warmest on record. Average Mean Temperature El Nino is back! Wait, what is El Nino-other than a great wrestling name? Short and simple: El Nino refers to warmer than normal waters in the Pacific. The warm ocean surface in turn warms the air which in turn has an affect on wind patterns that steer storms, cold air, warm air etc... How does this affect me? If you want to wish upon a falling star, Tuesday night and Wednesday night you'll have plenty of opportunity. The perseid meteor shower (A.K.A. falling stars) will peak Tuesday night and Wednesday night (Aug. 11th-12th). You'll want to look to the Northeast sky to see these meteors burning up in the Earth's atmopshere. They originate from an area in the sky where the Perseus constellation is located, thus the name "Perseid meteor s...
Saturday: 97 Peak Heat Index: 104 There is a slight chance of storms Monday and a better chance Tuesday. This chance of rain and at the very least an increase in clouds, should knock our high tem... 8th Coolest July In 135 Years Of Records! This was the 8th coolest July on record in St. Louis. Those records go all the way back to 1874! Our monthly average temperature was 75.6. The record is 74.9 and I've listed the top ten below, This will likely be a top ten coolest July on record. Using my forecast through the end of July, I have our average July temperature at 75.5. You can see the top ten list of coolest July's on record below. My forecast of 75.5 would put July 2009 at the 8th coolest on record. Another interesting stat that the National Weather Service dug up, is that we've had 8 days this July with highs in the 70s. That's the most on record for the ...
There will be several times where you can see the Space Shuttle Endeavour and the International Space Station in the night sky without a telescope for the next week or more. Skies may cloud up a bit in the afternoon this weekend, but I'm hoping for some breaks in the clouds in the evening to make for a decent viewing of the shuttle and ISS. You may even need a jacket at night as it will be rather cool for July. >> Continue reading: Great week to see the Shuttle and Space Station over St. Louis The bottom line: I have the St. Louis area with an 80% chance of storms between Midnight and Noon on Saturday and a 40% chance of isolated storms after Noon. But here's more details... Morning: Scattered Rain Likely
where T = ambient dry bulb temperature (°F) Well that explains it! Actually, that is a version of the equation behind our heat index ca... The Urban Heat Island Effect is why urban areas are warmer than rural areas. It's the altered landscape of a city that helps keep the temperature warmer than the rural areas. For example, asphalt parking lots, roads, and concrete buildings can retain more heat than rural areas with shade and vegetation. In fact, the EPA estimates that these urban surfaces can be 50 to 90 degrees hotter than the air temperature! All the concre...
Highs may not reach 70 on Wednesday and we could be near record lows by Thursday morning! What's happening? Madison county Illinois had tremendous rainfall on Memorial Day as storms continued to develop in the same area. We call that training, and it's almost like each storm is a train car with storm after storm rolling over the same area bringing heavy rain that can quickly cause flooding. While you look at the rainfall totals from Memorial Day below, keep in mind the normal rainfall for St. Louis in the entire month of May is 4.11" >> Continue reading: Over 10" Of Rain On Memorial Day
Steve Templeton ...
000 Today someone asked me "when's it gonna warm up?". I told him 76 tomorrow is warmer, but he then asked when we'll hit the 80s. I did some checking, and we've only had four days with highs in the 80s since April 1st this year. So, I understand why he's anxious for more of that heat (Although I personally love 72 and sunny). So, I figured there's more people like him wondering when the warmer 80s return. I just don't see it happenin... Now we have a good handle on this warm-up through the work week. But don't expect the warm air Tuesday, as it will be cool and windy. Warmer High Temperatures: What about the weekend?
There's signs of hope as we do have 72 by next Thursday (click for 7-day here). And in another sign of warmer weather right around the corner, ... Through April 14th: I was digging into the Climate books and found that through April 14th, half of our April days have had rain. We had 7 days of recorded rainfall at Lambert International Airport this April so far with a total of 2.44" of rain. Also, it's been rather chilly. We've had 11 of 14 days at or b... We're going to have a rain chance Tuesday morning, then again Thursday and then again Sunday. What's happening is that a pattern of flow is setting up that will drive low pressure rain producing systems from the Northwest down into the Southern Plains states and then East across the Midwest. The first low misses us well to the North tomorrow, but the cold front sweeps in producing rain in the morning. Most of this will be showers t... Tuesday looks like a wet and windy day. Occasional showers and storms in the morning with non-storm wind gusts throughout the day hitting 35-40 mph or more. The stronger storms arrive in the afternoon and evening, but blow out of the area by 11pm. In the metro these stronger storms should be moving through between 3pm and 8pm, perhaps as a squall line. The main threat is damaging wind gusts, lightning and heavy rain but an isolated tornado ...
The National Weather Service has issued an updated flood outlook which is a forecast for what to expect for the next 3 months or so concerning river flooding in our area. This outlook takes into account the snowpack ... While the St. Louis area hasn't seen a ton of rain this March, there's been a lot of heavy rain North of us. That rain is causing the Mississippi to swell. The river levels won't be record setting by an means, but if you have any interests along the Mississippi check out the linke below for the flood details. Here in St. Louis there won't be much impact, though the River will be noticeably high. >> Continue reading: Mississippi River Rising And the numbers keep going up. The latest from the National Weather Service storm damage survey team shows preliminary results of nine tornadoes across our vieweing area from Sunday's storms. The reason the totals continued to rise is because it takes time to drive out and research the damage from the storms. Then after putting together the damage results and talking to witnesses, the weather service team makes their results available. >> Continue reading: Update....Nine Tornadoes Confirmed Another five tornadoes were confirmed by the National Weather Service storm damage survey from Randolph and Washington counties in Illinois. This is still preliminary results, but it brings the total tornadoes from Sunday's storms to seven (1 in Greene county and 1 in Macoupin county in Illinois detailed in the previous blog). Here's the breakdown of the five tornado damage paths just surveyed by the National Weather Service.
I called the weather service this afternoon and the survey team was en route to Randolph county, Illinois to check out more damage. So, it is possible that they confrim another tornado. However, as of 5:00 pm Monday, there's no update. I'll let you know if more tornadoes are co... If you live in Illinois you may hear the tornado sirens go off on Tuesday March 3rd around 10:00 AM. It's only a drill!. This is severe weather awareness week in Illinois and it's a great time to think about your severe weather plan. You hear us mention this every year, but it really helps to know exactly where to go in the case of a severe storm or tornado. The key part is that it helps eliminate the "thinking" part of it... Kent and I have been talking during our weathercasts how this year's Mardi Gras Parade (Saturday the 21st) is going to be bitterly cold. I'm not talking "It's February, of course it's cold" type weather, no this will be colder. This will be more like the Mardi Gras from two years ago, about 15 degrees below normal, windy and flurries. Take a look at our current forecast compared to the normals for this Saturday. Normal high= 46 ...
Wednesday Morning Forecast= 8 Thursday Afternoon Forecast= 50 So, we have a ...
Cold, Breezy and some flurries or a light snow. That's the quick and dirty forecast for Tueaday's Presidential Inauguration in Washington D.C. Morning temperatures will be in the mid to upper 20s but it will feel like the teens with a breeze from the Northwest. As for the weather here in St. Louis, it won't be a whole lot different. Cold and a bit breezy at times but not too windy. Flurries are possible but mainly in the e...
Here's a link to the top ten wettest years and how Columbia, MO...
http://www.kmov.com/video/index.html?nvi...
A storm system will move through Tuesday and Wednesday, but right now the forecast projections are leaning towards mostly rain. That's because just as the cold, below freezing air arrives Wednesday morning, the moisture will be leaving. If today's forecast holds, it doesn't look like we'll see snow on the ground for Christmas. But wait! There's still a c...
You can check out the latest on demand video forecast explaining how this storm will impact your weekend on the right hand side of our weather page, >> Continue reading: Weekend Weather, Chance For Snow? Without a telescope, you can see the International Space Station (ISS) and the Shuttle Endeavour in the night sky at different times during the next week. They aren't visible for a very long time, so follow the link below to check out times to see them and how long they are visible. Tomorrow (Saturday Nov. 22nd) the shuttle and space station will still be connected together. Right now I think there will be partly cloudy skie...
Below is a lost of the top 5 wettest years in St. Louis for records going back to 1870: 1)54.97" (1982)
This weekend high...
I'm no garden expert, in fact I like to say I have a black thumb, but I did some research for you green thumbs out there and perhaps you'll find a tip you didn't know about. >> Continue reading: Tips To Protect Plants From Freezing Temps. According to the Missouri Department of Conservation, we're probably experiencing the peak of the Fall Foliage in the St. Louis area. But I checked an update from Alton and as of October 23rd the Alton area leaf change was at 40%. If we are experiencing the peak of Fall foliage in the St. Louis area, this is just the beginning as the majority of Oak trees are still changing colors. For more details from the >> Continue reading: Fall Foliage Peak
Below is where we stand right now in the record books for the wettest year in St. Louis:... Why do the leaves change color? Less and Less Daylight Starts The C...
For instance, I learned about the latest research on a... With the weather turning dry through this upcoming weekend and possibly our next storm chance coming Monday night into Tuesday of next week, we should have plenty of time to enjoy the outdoors. But is it a good time to see the Fall foliage across the area? I found a great web site from the Missouri Department of Conservation, click here, that updates the Fall foliage cond... Since this Summer hasn't been as hot as past years, maybe it is easy to believe that Fall starts Monday. The Autumnal Equinox marks the beginning of Autumn and that occurs at 10:44 AM. Why is it such a specific time? Why Is It When Fall Starts? Did you see the wicked turn North in Tropical Storm Hanna? Check out the two links below, one is a radar loop of the storm and the other is the historical track of the storm. http://www.wunderground.com/tropical/tracking/at200808_radar.html#a_topad (might take a few seconds to load the loop) >> Continue reading: Holy Curvature Batman-Tropical Storm Hanna
It's been two weeks since we've had measurable rain at St. Louis Lambert Airport, but that's about to change. While it won't be a rainout the next four days, at the very least we have a rain chance in the forecast tonight through the weekend. This has been an unusual dry spell in what has been a very wet year so far. In fact, at one point in July the Weather Service deemed this the wettest start to the year on record for St. Louis. ...
This large tree smashed in the roof of an SUV and blew out the back windows. It was a massive tree that was uprooted from what is est...
The Forecast: On Tuesday a cold front will bring a cool down to the area, ending eight days in a row of 90 degree heat or higher, including Sunday's 99 degree high and Monday's 98 degree high. Heat Index: With more heat surely around the corner (it's not even August yet) I thought I'd explain a little bit about the heat index. Firstly, you may hear us say "heat index" and "feels like temperature" and wonder what's the diff... As the River falls, some may be thinking that we're done with the flood threat. But the Mississippi River is still not below flood stage in our area and so the flooding impact continues. However, take a look at the chart below where the line graph forecasts the falling river level in Winfield. The going forecast has the Mississippi falling to below flood stage in Winfield this weekend. At St. Louis the Mississippi should fall below flood... *****Yet Another Update, Thursday Evening June 19th********** We Never Stop looking over the latest flood information and there has been a significant change. Because of levee breaches North of St. Louis, the crest forecast along the Mississippi has changed significantly. Along the Mississippi in our viewing area the crest is forecast to be 1 to 2 feet lower than previously thought. This means levels should be below the record crest... Yesterday's blog focused on the Mississippi at St. Louis and today I wanted to point out not only the flooding all along the Mississippi into early next week, but especially Grafton, IL. The Mississippi at Grafton is forecast to rise to 28.5' which is 10.5' above flood stage. That's right on the borderline of what's classified by the weather service as "Major Flooding". Here's a list of what is impacted in the Grafton area when the... After a weekend of heavy rain in Nebraska, Iowa, Wisconsin and Northern Illinois, much of that rain will run into streams that eventually dump into the Missouri or Mississippi River. Because of this, the Missouri and Mississippi Rivers will be on the rise into this upcoming weekend. In fact, below is the river level graph on the Mississippi River at St. Louis. You can see the sharp rise in the water level forecasted for this weekend. At St... Today is the official start to what we call our "Aircast", which is an air quality forecast for theSt. Louis area. Again this year we're proud to be the storm team chosen to create your air quality forecast, which updates in the mid to late afternoon on KMOV.com or will be featured in our evening weathercasts. This year we will begin incorporating particulate matter (dust and small particulates), however once again it will be low le...
It may sound like it's late in the season for a frost, so I did some digging. If we hit 32 at Lambert airport it would tie for the 5th latest frost on record in St. Louis. However, the latest frost was on May 10th back in 1966. I checked with the Weather Service today and they said the average last frost for St. Louis is around ... The high temperature Tuesday was 79, which is above the average high of 69, but it means we still haven't hit 80 at Lambert International Airport. Now, I've seen quite a few low 80s on Tuesday from our weatherbug netowrk (links for those sites are in the middle of the weather page here on KMOV.com), but we just can't seem to get to 80 at Lambert. But we're forecasting temperatures near 80 for Wednesday, which could be our first 80 degree or ... The strongest aftershock today (Saturday) hit around Noon. However, it rated a 2.8 which no one likely noticed except for geologists studying and monitoring the area. Here...
It may be a busy night in the 4Warn storm center. A potent storm system is swinging through the Midwest and will produce several areas of strong to severe storms including the possibility of tornadoes. If the storms do flair up in our area, we'll go into storm mode sending our crews out across the area while Kent and I track the latest storms and provide live updates on KMOV.com and channel 4. While there is a slight risk of severe...
Despite today being a beautiful Sunday, it looks like we have a couple stormy days ahead this week. It's not going to be one of those weeks with a chance of rain every day, but it looks like both Tuesday and Thursday could see storms with a potential for heavy rain. Tuesday morning a warm front moves in with more moisture which should produce some morning showers and a few storms across the area. But it's Tuesday afternoon that looks...
This Winter on average across the US and the globe is the coolest since 2001. While it was the coolest in recent years, it was still above the normal. You can find out more from this article, click here. So this got me thinking...let's look at our numbers here in St. Louis for this Winter. By the way, to make keeping climate records easier, ...
Tuesday March 4th was the biggest snow of the year in St. Louis with 10" officically at Lambert airport (the official measuring station for the St. Louis area). It puts our 2007-2008 winter snowfall total at 30.1" so far (could be a bit more before it's all over too). But this season's snowfall has not been rivaled in nearly 15 years since the Winter of 1992-1993 which had 30.3". So, as many people have guessed this is a snowy Winter compar...
Thanks to our friends at the National Weather Service for putting together this detailed map of storm totals from our several waves of sleet, freezing rain and some snow. Once again the area South of St. Louis including Potosi, Farmington and over to Sparta, Illinois saw the highest amounts of sleet and free...
A few people at the station were asking the question, "If we're getting so much ice South of St. Louis, why aren't there more power outages?" Kent and I addressed that on the evening shows Monday night and even did a brief explainer of how sleet forms. But I'll go into a bit more detail here. To answer the question above, keep in mind that sleet and freezing rain are both ice. But they form in different ways. It's freezing ra...
In the past ten days we've had 3 days with severe storm warnings, an 8" snow storm, 2 days with highs in the 70s and 3 days with highs near 30. It's been a wild ride and if you caught our forecast tonight, we don't have any major storms in the next 5 days, though we do have a high of 50 Friday and then a low of 12 by Sunday morning. So what's causing this extreme weather? There are so many variables involved in daily and weekly wea...
A slow moving cold front combined with record warmth and lots of available moisture brought an extended round of spring like severe severe storms to the News 4 viewing area last night and this morning. Most of the storm reports in our area were from hail or high winds/wind damage. Hail of 0.75-1inch diameter was reported in Palmyra, Hannibal, Silex, Eolia, Washington, Marthasville, Cottlesville, Cuba, Sullivan and Bourbon, Missouri....
On walks with your dog watch for anti-freeze which drips on the pavement from cars. Ant-freeze may taste good to your dog, but it's leth...
Get ready for some big temperature changes. This New Year's Eve night the temperature will fall through the 30s to near 28 around Midnight. But the wind will crank up too and strong winds will make the wind chill a big factor through New Year's Day as well. Here's a look at my temperature and wind chill forecast for tonight through Wednesday morning New Year's Eve Midnight Tues...
Here's a link to more info: Click here The fine folks at our local National Weather Service have been digging into the record books, and we thank them for some interesting stats. It turns out that it was a colder than average start to December. 16 of the first 17 days of this month had morning lows at or below the freezing mark of 32. Just yesterday (Monday) we hit the coldest low of the season at 11 degrees at Lambert. And of course we know it was a snowy start to the m...
One of the reasons snowfall is so difficult to forecast is because small changes in the forecast have large impacts on our snowfall expectation. And if you read Matt's blog below you know one model had flurries and the other had 3-5" for us. Here's why we lose hair over snowfall forecasts...the model that showed flurries is now pumping out nearly 10" of snow for St. Louis! On the other hand, the other model has stuck to it's guns and is sti...
Oh brother, it just keeps coming! So, before I get into some details on the weekend snow chances, I want to make mention of what's happening tonight into Thursday morning. From Rolla to St. Louis to Litchfield and Northwest we don't expect a whole lot of wet weather, but some light rain, sleet, snow is possible with little to no accumulation. Southeast of that line we expect nearly all rain. Although we expect any wet weather to move out j...
It seems like every day we are thrown another shot of moisture and temperatures near freezing at some point in the day. So, it begs the question, what's next? Rain is the answer for most of us, including the St. Louis metro for Tuesday evening. Areas Northwest however, may see some ice later this evening as temperatures approach and drop below freezing. The farther Northwest, the better chance for ice accumulation. Right now it app...
So matt just blogged about our first encounter this season with some Wintery weather, and now we will be very close to the freezing line this weekend as some wet weather moves through. So, let me take you through the details on what we're thinking (Firday evening) for this weekend storm: Ice will mainly be Northwest of the St. Louis metro. While some spots in the viewing area may see some brief periods of freezing rain or driz...
Overrunning is when warm and moist air runs over on top of a shallow dome of cold air at the surface. I'll probably over simplifiy this, but the analogy of a speed bump comes to mind. Your tires have no choice but to run up and over the speed bump. Similarily, warm air is runn...
Well, it looks like some wet weather is headed this way for the weekend. The big question is what type of wet weather? Rain, Snow, Freezing rain or sleet (what about all of the above)? It's too early to have that kind of confidence in the forecast models to pinpoint a precipitation type and timing. Sometimes when you're looking at a storm forecast like this and it's several days away, you focus more on the track of the Low pressure, ...
I'm not sure a lot of people at the beginning of the college football season would have pegged the Missouri vs. Kansas game as this BIG. You may have watched LSU fall to Arkansas on Ch. 4 on Friday and now the Mizzou vs. Kansas game will probably have the eyes of the nation watching for possible National Title game implications. At this point, I know what you're thinkging...is this blog from Steve Savard or Steve Templeton? All righ...
What a chilly morning! It was 27 degrees for the low this morning from the sensor St. Louis-Lambert Airport. That makes today the coldest morning of the season so far. It hasn't been this chilly to start a day since April 8th when it was 26. But for those of you who dislike the chilly air, there's hope. Well...sort of. Eventually it will get much colder, after all we're going into Winter. But in the short term, it's not likel...
The cold is what will affect all of us Tuesday, but it's interesting that we also have a fire watch in Southeast Missouri for the counties of St. Francois, Ste. Genevieve and Madison. I know, you're thinking...isn't it too cold for brush fires? Strong and gusty winds help to fuel fires or force controlled fires get out of control. But these winds are blowing in the chilly air (high in the upper 40s Tuesday). Although chilly, this ai...
It's hard to believe November is already here. But the weather is starting to match the calendar now. I thought we could look ahead at the month of November by comparing the climate normals from today November 1st to what we typically have by November 30th. Nov. 1st Normal High: 61 Low: 42 Nov. 30th Normal High: 47 Low: 31 It's interesting to note that the high by the end of this month is typically close to the wha...
So tonight on the 5'Oclock news Kent talked about how we can get just about any type of weather on Halloween. Many of you may remember 1993 with a trace of snow. Sure it wasn't a snow storm, but snow on Halloween? And then there's been years when Halloween has been in the 80s, even close to 90! The record high is 88 in 1968. Here's some other interesting stats for Halloween: It's from 9am to 3pm out at the National Weather Service offices located near Weldon Spring, MO in St. Charles County. In fact, I've posted a link below and the weather service has provided directions and detials about what you'll see when you visit. The National Weather Service Storm Survey team has been working hard lately. I spoke to the Weather Service today by phone and they had multiple crews out in the field. They were looking closely at the damage from the Paris, MO tornadoes from Wednesday night and also looking for possible confirmation of reported tornadoes in and around Bond, Co. Illinois. As of Friday night there are no preliminary reports out on the unconfirmed torn...
Well, the energetic storm system continues to bring a threat of storms to our area today through the overnight. Below is the Storm Prediction Center's severe risk for today through tomorrow morning. There is a threat for all types of severe weather including hail, wind damage and tornadoes, from this afternoon on. For St. Louis, it appears that threat especially increases tonight through about 5 to 7am. That means there is a chance ...
A storm system will drop into the High Plains Wednesday and help to push warm and moist air into the St. Louis area Wednesday afternoon. A few storms are possible across our area in the afternoon and evening. We may have a few strong to severe storms, especially in the evening for St. Louis, but the higher risk for severe weather during the day is in Western Missouri and Kansas, closer to the core of this storm system. As that sto...
"Much Needed Rain" is a popular phrase meteorologists are using this week. We have a couple chances for showers and storms starting with today through tomorrow morning. Another chance arrives late Wednesday through Thursday morning. But the reason we say "much needed" is because most of the area is in a drought. In fact, parts of our viewing area in Illinois are in a severe drought. Below is the latest drought monitor. If you wan...
It's fitting that on the day we have the coolest air since April we start looking ahead to the Winter Outlook. In the previous blog we posted a link for the average frost dates, but now let's talk about the climate outlook for December through February as the latest forecast from the Climate Prediction Center has just been released. On a national level the forecast calls for good chances of a warmer than normal winter, but slightl...
First though, a front approaching this afternoon will cause showers and some thunderstorms. This won't be drought busting rainfall, but some isolated heavy downpours can be expected. Some of those storm cells with heavy rain could produce a lot of lightning and gusty winds but windepsrea...
Steve here, I have some preliminary results from the storm survey crews at the National Weather Service. I should emphasize that this is preliminary and not official, but the crews called in their initial results after surveying two areas where a tornado struck. The first is in the town of Palmyra, MO about 130 miles North of St. Louis. Kent will be live in Palmyra tonight, inspecting some of the damage. We have reports of cars fli...
Steve here in the weather center and I wanted to give you an update on the storm chances tonight, in particular the chance of severe weather. In yesterday's blog I mentioned that the greatest threat of severe weather was West of St. Louis. The Storm Prediction Center agrees and has shifted the "slight risk" of severe storms area just to our West. It does include part of the News 4 viewing area however, and I've posted the latest graphical f...
Another warm up is in store Tuesday and possibly some strong to severe storms Tuesday into Wednesday morning. The Storm Prediction Center's severe weather risk for that time period is pasted below, and you'll see we are in the "slight risk" area. I do think we have a chance for severe storms in the area tomorrow, but I wanted to take a chance to let you know what I'm seeing in the computer models when it comes to the timing and the location o...
Man those skies are blue today! I'm checking out the beautiful day through one of our skycams from the confines of my windowless storm center. And what's the deal with a weather guy not having windows in his office? Bryce, our web guy, has this great view of the Arch from his office and I've got a crummy skycam. Oh well, it is what it is. Anyway, the clear skies today are caused in large part from a big area of high pressure (those ...
Here's an update for you on the severe weather threat. Below is today and tonight's severe weather risk. This is a graphic made by the Storm Prediction Center, the same people who issue watches (warnings are issued by our local national weather service office). Last night the slight risk area, outlined in green, included the Metro East and much of our viewing area in Illinois. Now the threat has been pushed farther to the Northeast....
Autumn started Sunday morning, but our high temperature at Lambert Sunday hit a very summer-like 93. In fact, it was one degree away from the record high of 94 set back in 1891. So, if it's officially Fall then when will the Fall-like temperatures arrive? Well, we do have a cold front that will usher in some cooler temperatures late this week. The front is expected to move through by Wednesday morning, giving us highs in the mid to ...
The Autumnal Equinox will occur this Sunday at 4:51 AM marking the beginning of Fall. Equionx means "Equal night" as the day and night are about the same, about 12 hours each. An equinox occurs when the sun is directly above the equator, as you can see in the picture below. Throughout the summer the sun's most direct ray's hit the Northern Hemisphere, ranging between the equator and the Tropic of Cancer (23.5 N). In fact, it's the ...
Kent and I have been watching something interesting in the medium range computer models. A disturbance near Florida will head for St. Louis, or at least close enough to our area to give us a rain chance by early next week. Below is a map of the latest possible path of this disturbance. Each colored line represents a different model's forecast path of this disturbance. Right now it is not strong enough to be called a tropical depres...
Hold on! Wait a second! What happened to that great Fall weather from this weekend? That's what I was thinking, especially since I love the cooler Fall days. But We will be ranging from 85-90 at least through the weekend. All in all, those aren't horrible numbers. But I was wondering how late in the season we've had a 90 or even 100 degree day. So, I did some digging in the climate files for St. Louis and here's what I found: If you've already taken a peek at my 5 day forecast you know that temperatures through the weekend are expected to be well above normal. Now take a look at the two maps I have posted below. The Climate Prediction Center's 6 to 10 and 8 to 14 day outlooks are remarkably similar. Each shows that there is a strong indication that temperatures east of the Continental Divide will, for the most part, remain well above normal into October. >> Continue reading: Warm Days Ahead Well, we said in the blog last night that we didn't think Humberto would strengthen to a hurricane...and of course just to spite me, it did. Actually, that made Humberto the fastest intensifying hurricane nearest landfall. It strengthened from a tropical depression to a hurricane in a little over half a day while only 60 miles from the Texas coast. Also, Humberto was the first hurricane to hit the US since Hurricane Wilma in 2005. Kent an...
August, September and October are historically the busiest months for tropical storms and hurricanes in the Atlantic. And not half way into September we now have our 8th named storm of the season, Tropical Storm Humberto formed today off the Texas coast. Humberto is not expected to become a hurricane because it will lose energy as it moves onshore over Eastern Texas and then moves into Western and Central Louisiana. Maximum sustained winds ...
Steve here, and the latest forecast has some cool temperatures arriving by the weekend. A strong push of cold air should clip our area Saturday before temperatures rebound a bit. But with a low in the low 50s Saturday morning, I wondered how long it's a been since we've been that cool? In fact, the last time it was that cool was May 19th. That's almost 4 months ago! Highs should rebound into the low 70s, about 10 degrees bel...
***Update to this blog, the National Weather Service did report a brief touchdown 4 miles East Northeast of Jerseyville, IL. From the weather service report this was seen by a trained spotter. I haven't seen any other reports on this as the damage seems limited to some trees in the areas. ************* From Thursday's three tornado warnings we have only 1 spotted tornadoes at this point. So, why did we spend so much time interruptin...
Just as Kent's blog below describes, it's likely most of us will see some rain Thursday and Friday. And as I check out the latest drought monitor, it's much needed. Below is a map I took from the US Drought Monitor web site, and I'll provide the link below as well. You'll see that the entire News4 viewing area is in a moderate drought (beige) and the Southern portion of our viewing area (both Missouri and Illinois) is in a severe dro...
So I'm working on the forecast this afternoon, with one eye on the radar, and I see this red blip on the radar screen near St. Charles. Then our warning system goes off and that map with the warnings is already on the air, severe thunderstorm warning for Northern St. Louis County and St. Louis City. Our system really is that quick, warnings pop on the air immediately! Anyway, I broke into commericals a couple of times to warn viewers...
So I updated the numbers in our blog about this August possibly going into the record books as the hottest August on record. Those numbers in the blog below are accurate as of Tuesday. But I took it one step further, and I calculated our forecast numbers for the rest of August into the equation. If our forecast pans out, we should have an average monthly temperature of 84.5 for this August. That won't beat the record of 84.9...
This sizzling St. Louis summer may go down into the record books. While July was below normal for the average temperature, the month of August could very well turn out to be in the top 5 hottest on record in St. Louis. As of Tuesday, the average temperature for the month of August was 85.0 according to the records from Lambert airport. The record hottest August in 1947 had an average temperature of 84.9. The average temperature is...
So you may have heard me talk about how there is a heat advisory out for ONLY St. Louis city Tuesday and Wednesday. Why is the advisory only for the city? It all has to do with the Urban Heat Island Effect. Basically the city of St. Louis will be several degrees hotter than the outlying areas because it has a unique terrain. More specifically, the city is filled with paved streets, black top parking lots, tall brick buildings and n...
Steve here in the weather center, and I thought I'd take this opportunity to distract you from the heat by telling you that a great meteor shower will happen soon. On Sunday night anytime after 9pm the show begins! However, the Perseid meteor shower should peak around 2am Monday morning with about 1 meteor every 5 minutes on average. Below is a skymap of where to look, and notice Mars is visible too. For more information, >> Continue reading: Perseid Meteor Shower We're under an excessive heat warning through at least Friday afternoon. But what exactly is an excessive heat warning and who issues it? Well, the National Weather Service issues the excessive heat warning and they have very specific criteria to meet. For instance an excessive heat warning will only be issued when: On the news tonight I mentioned that we're forecasting an air quality day that will reach levels unhealthy for people with sensiteve needs, and that specifically the 4Warn Aircast is low level ozone. But isn't ozone good? Aren't we trying to replace the ozone hole? Those are some good questions, let me get to the answers: What is Low Level ozone? This Saturday wasn't extremely hot, but it certainly was humid. If you found yourself dripping in sweat while working or exercising outdoors today, here's why; When we sweat, the beads of water on our skin evaporate into the air. This evaporation creates a little pocket of cooler air near the skin where the bead of water has evaporated. Imagine hundreds of beads of sweat evaporating! This creates a little layer of cooler ai...
A week ago Lambert airport recorded 2.12". Since then...notta, zilch, dry. And although it hasn't been excessively hot, it's been warm enough to suck the moisture out of the ground. When the air is warm, it encourages evaporation. So the moisture in the soil evaporates into the warm afternoon air to help form some puffy clouds perhaps, but not rain clouds lately. Well, just as we get hotter and more humid, a cold front will pull in...
It's Steve here in the weather center, it's painful to come in to work on great July days like this. Everywhere I've been this weekend people remark about how nice the weather is. We expect, and often get, much hotter and humid days in July, so this is a nice reprieve...but why? And how much longer will it last? Well, the reason for our comfortable weather is that the heat and humidity are being cut off to the West. In fact, you can...
This was the third warmest spring on record for Missouri and the fourth warmest for Illinois. Averaged out across the entire United States it was the fifth warmest Spring, so we aren't alone when it comes to the warmth. Spring is considered March through May for climate records, and below you can see the statewide ranks across the US. We're forecasting an orange air quality day for Wednesday, which means the low level ozone amounts will be high enough that adults and children sensitive to air quality will want to take caution. The 4Warn weather center is where these forecasts originate. We input data from our own forecast like tempe...
It's Steve here in the weather center...and with severe storms possible later this week I wondered how many of you know that the national weather service broadcasts weather information 24 hours a day, 7 days a week? And if you purchase a special radio it will beep in the middle of the night to warn you of incoming severe weather. We usually refer to it as NOAA weather radio (NOAA is the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration and the ...
Steve here in the weather center, and it was an interesting night as funnel clouds and some tornadoes starting popping up along a line of showers just East of St. Louis. Now these were weak tornadoes and unexpected because these tornadoes produced such a weak and low level rotation, it was difficult to detect o...
Steve here in the weather center, and I'm sitting here wondering if there is yet another cool down on deck for us? Or can I count on warmer planting and grilling weather? Well, the next 2 weeks look a lot closer to normal, which is upper 60s to near 70. This week we will experience a cool down Wednesday and Thursday, but then warm back up for the weekend. This cool down should bring us temperatures near 60, much warmer than our last...
April snow is not unheard of in St. Louis, in fact the last time we had snow in April was April 8th, 2003 and it was a trace of snow. The latest we've ever seen snow was May 2nd 1929 with a 4" dumping! Right now the forecast just calls for snow to mix in with some rain Saturday morning,...
We have a chance to set new record low temperatures for the date of April 7th. We're expecting the temperatures to dip down to 18 to 23 degrees across the area. In St. Louis, the record is 26 set in 1939. As of Friday morning my forecast calls for the low to drop to 22 degrees, and thus set a new record. If the clouds clear out, it could get even colder. Here's the record low for some cities across the area: Steve here in the weather center, and above is a graphic showing that the storm prediction center has our area outlined on Tuesday with a slight risk of severe storms. A cold front will move in from the Northwest, and this front brings much colder air with it for the middle and end of the week. As it plows ...
Opening Night is Sunday April 1st: Gametime 7:05 PM vs. The Mets It's Steve here in the weather center, and I wanted to update all of you who were interested in the Cardinals home opener forecast I provided last week. Things have changed...sort of. The general pattern I discussed is amazingly holding true. The storms hit on Saturday and move out allowing us to enjoy a dry Sunday. The big change is that the cool air may not...
It's Steve here, and yeah I know it's 9 days away and the forecast will probably change, but I thought I'd take a stab at it anyway. The Cards open up the season at home against the Mets at 7:05 on Sunday April 1st. So what will the weather be like? Well when we're this far away from an event, I like to look at the...
It's Steve in the weather center, and we finally start Spring on March 20th at 7:07 pm, it's the Spring (or Vernal) Equinox. The equinox is supposed to mean "Equal Night", because day and night are equal in length all across the globe. But some astute people will bring up the fact that if day and night are equal, the...
It's Steve in the weather center, and I'm an allergy sufferer...and I've been suffering. It's not as bad as Summer and Fall, but I've noticed the itchy eyes and sneezes coming out of nowhere. It's not unusual if you suffer too since trees pollenate in early Spring. Elm, Cedar/Juniper and Maple are the largest contributor to the allergy problems pushing the pollen index into the "high range". We have a tool for you right her...
We had several tornado outbreaks last year in the St. Louis area, in fact the St. Louis weather service office had the most severe weather in the country last year. The first outbreak of the season occurred on March 12th-13th 2006. All in all, there were 48 tornadoes in Missouri and Illinois combined, and 7 fatalities all in Missouri. Here's a map of the tornadoes and their paths. A co-worker just asked me if we're done dealing with those cold days where the high temperature is in the 20s or 30s. I told her it's likely that those days are over and I don't see any cold Arctic air in our near future. Well Kent was just checking the Climate Prediction Center for a longer range outlook, and they seem to agree. Well I hope everyone made it through this round of severe storms with no major damage to their homes or cars. By the way, if you didn't already know this, you can get live updates from the 4Warn weather team on KMOV.com when we have severe storms in the area. Matt and I were jumping back and forth from updating viewers on Channel 4 and much more detailed and thus lengthy updates on KMOV.com. But now, our morning storms are moving out...
Another storm system will whip through the Midwest bringing a quick rise in temperatures here in the bi-state, along with some storms, and then a quick drop in temperatures along with some wind. Sounds a lot like last weekends storms right? Well, this is very similar, but we don't expect nearly as much rain, there just isn't as much moisture with this system. However, there is a threat of severe storms. In fact here is the latest thr...
Well, it's Friday evening and Kent and I have been pouring over the weather maps as we look ahead to a chance of thunderstorms this Saturday. Both Kent and I agree we have a good chance for rain in the morning and then thunderstorms are expected in the afternoon to mid-evening. Although we can't rule out a severe storm, severe weather appears unlikely for our viewing area. The Storm Prediction Center still has our area in a slight r...
According to St. Louis Lambert, our snowfall for the season is 12.9". But normal snowfall for the season up to this point is 18". This means we're about 5" below average. Why does...
It sure feels like we've put the cold winter weather behind us...or have we? The next several days will all be warm, that's the good news. But a potent Spring-Like storm rolls in on Saturday with a chance for heavy rain and thunderstorms. Perhaps even a few isolated severe storms later in the day and night Saturday. However, it will become colder on Sunday, in fact the going forecast calls for temperatures to be warmer in the morning then ...
Are you craving more weather info? Is that why you're here at our blog? Or just really bored and surfing the net for something interesting. Either way, we're here to help. Here's an update on the next storm system and in particular what to expect for the Monday morning commute (I know, I know, the last thing you want to think about on the weekend is going back to work). Well, just as Matt's earlier post says, meteorologists pour over...
It's Steve here, and I know we've been talking more about chances for periods of freezing rain this weekend, so I thought I'd take a minute to go into more detail about how freezing rain and ice storms form. Freezing rain is rain that freezes on contact once it hits the ground. What happens is cold below freezing air moves in close to the surface. However, aloft it's still warm and above freezing. As the rain drops fall from that wa...
Well, a lot of people are already talking about the nasty weather for the weekend. It's all coming from a storm system that will move across the Rockies and then slowly drift across the Midwest late this week and this weekend. This slow movement of the front will allow several disturbances to ride into the bi-state producing several rounds of rain. Some forecast models indicate the rain could be heavy Friday into Saturday. But it's...
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