4Warn Weather BLOG

October 2009
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Recently by Kent Ehrhardt


Autumn Colors

4:06 PM Wed, Oct 21, 2009 |

I don't know how official my proclamation is but here we go - "Peak Autumn colors have arrived!" I've checked with sources on both sides of the river and the consensus is that the trees are indeed at full color this weekend (October 24 & 25).

You really can't miss with any of the local roads. Even some of the urban areas are worth a visit. Two of my favorites are Thre Great river Road (topped off with a visit to Fast Eddie's of course)...



Chilly Mornings Ahead

5:35 PM Tue, Oct 06, 2009 |

If you haven't fired up the furnace yet you probably will by this weekend. Morning lows will be in the low 40s and highs will struggle to hit 60. Every year we have to report on accidental deaths that didn't have to happen. These accidents always break my heart so in that spirit I urge the following.

Get Your Heating System Inspected -Times are tight and it's easy to cut back on this very imortant item. You can't put a...



A Cool Summer Across The Country

5:01 PM Thu, Sep 10, 2009 |

I think it's safe to say that the Summer of 2009 will be remembered as cooler than normal. Even though temperatures in July and August were well below normal, the average for the entire Summer was not as impressive due to a couple of heat waves in June.

Much of the country saw below normal temperatures. A notable exception was Texas and the western states. Here's a >> Continue reading: A Cool Summer Across The Country



Winter - Bitter Cold Or Above Normal?

4:14 PM Wed, Sep 02, 2009 |

There seems to be a difference of opinion regarding the outlook for this coming Winter, a rather large difFerence of opinion. The Farmers' Almanac has issued an outlook for this Winter that features "numbingly cold temperatures" for our area. This outlook is significantly different than the outlook issued by the Climate Prediction Center (CPC), a U.S. government agency.

The CPC outlook is based largely on an ongoing El Nino e...



Weekend Weather Wrap

3:05 PM Mon, Jul 20, 2009 |

So how cool did it get this past weekend (July18 & 19)? My forecast was close but as usual Mother Nature threw us a couple of curves. Here's what happened:

Saturday:

Cloudy skies greeted us in the morning. While I was expecting clouds it was actually overcast and that worked to hold in the heat a little bit. The morning low on Saturday was 63, a little above my forecast but still well below the...



El Nino Returns

3:36 PM Thu, Jul 09, 2009 |

NOAA (National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration) just released an announcement heralding the arrival of an El Nino event. I think the name El Nino more often than not conjures up negative weather images in many peoples minds but not all of the impacts of this global weather pattern are bad. In the short term we may see a decrease in the Atlantic hurricane activity for the remainder of the Summer. This is caused primarily by an increase i...



A "Cool" Light At The End Of The Tunnel

4:22 PM Wed, Jun 24, 2009 |

There may be some much-needed relief from this unusual heat wave soon.

First of all let me explain the unusual part. If you've lived in St. Louis for any length of time you know that sccessive days of 90+ temperatures is nothing unusual here in the Summer. But normally these heat waves take place in July and August. The longest successive 90+ heat wave is 28 days long! (it ended on July 30, 1936).

So when will...



What's Up With Twitter?

5:27 PM Tue, May 12, 2009 |

New to Twitter? Fear not. It can be a very useful tool during severe weather events like the one we anticipate for Wednesday. Here's some tips:


How to use Twitter to keep tabs on the weather

Chances are you are hearing this thing called Twitter being mentioned more and more often. While Twitter is growing in popularity, there are still a lot of people who are still trying to figure it out. Basically Twitter i...



Waiting For Storms

9:37 PM Thu, May 07, 2009 |

9:45 PM Thursday evening in the Storm center. Severe thunderstorm watch in effect until 2 AM. Storms are popping up and moving in from the west and northwest but no warnings...yet. We'll be here all night if need be. Instability was impressive about an hour ago but looks to be weakening a little bit now. Certainly not out of the woods yet but maybe we'll get another break. So far not much of a severe storm season. Fine by me. Kent

...



Wet At Times

7:36 PM Fri, May 01, 2009 |

It will still be a little unsettled over the weekend but it could be worse. The cool front that moved through St. Louis early Friday morning has setteled over southern Missouri where it will set up shop for the next couple of days. As a result most of the rain will fall south of our area although southern sections of our viewing area could see some locally heavy rain. Hit and miss showers appear likely in St. Louis on Saturday and Sunday prima...



Where Did I put Those Shorts?

5:40 PM Tue, Apr 21, 2009 |

Skies will be partly cloudy and it will not be as breezy today. But the wind will be coming from the soughtwest and that will allow temperatures to climb to near 70 degrees by this afternoon. There is a chance of a few showers early Thursday as a warm front moves through but temperatures continue to climb into the upper 70s. Friday through the weekend will be breezy and warm with highs in the low 80s. There is a chance for a few showers north ...



Do You Like Dirtbikes.

11:44 PM Fri, Mar 20, 2009 |

Okay I know this is off-topic but it's 11:45 on Friday night and I STILL haven't been on the air yet so I'm exercising my right to blog about whatever I want.

Many of you know that Supercross is my favorite spetator sport. The best riders in the world are in town this weekend at the Dome and I'm super stoked! This is one of the closest and most exciting series ever and the St. louis round is going to be awesome. Jason Lawrence, one of ...



Could Get Wet

7:44 PM Tue, Mar 17, 2009 |

We really hit a home run on St. Patrick's Day this year. The weather could not have been any better. But this evening in the 4 Warn Storm Center Steve Templeton and I have our eyes on a cool front off to our north. Right now there is not much in the way of precipitation associated with this front and as it moves into our area there isn't much moisture for it to work with.

So what happens when it arrives in St. Louis Midday on Wednesda...



Note To Self: "It's Still Winter!"

8:51 PM Mon, Feb 16, 2009 |

In the past couple of weeks we've had a couple of days in the 70s and quite a few days in the 50s. So it's understanable that many of us are anxious to get Spring off and running. The only problem with that is it's still Winter!!!.

It's the middle of February and, historically, some of the worst Winter weather we've had in the past has been in late February and March. We're still about 5 weeks from Spring folks.

...



I Love Snow (and puppies)

9:23 PM Tue, Jan 27, 2009 |

Sorry but it's true. I know it can be a major hardship for a lot of folks but I just love it. In my mind if it's going to be cold I would just as soon have snow. Maybe that has something to do with having just returned from my 18th trip to the Steamboat Weather Summit in Steamboat Springs, Colorado. They get some serious snow out there. I remember being there a few years back when they received over 24 inches of snow one Thurs...



Arctic Outbreak

6:10 PM Thu, Jan 15, 2009 |

Thursday evening in the Storm Center. Our low temperature at Lambert, St. Louis International Airport was 0 degrees this morning. Man that's cold. The coldest temperature in 8 years in St. Louis! The last time we were this cold was on January 2, 2001. Now the bad news, I expect it to be even colder on Friday morning. But the good news is the wind chill will not be as bad. My forecast low for Friday is -1 with wind chills of 0 to -10. The last ...



An Active Pattern

8:16 PM Fri, Jan 02, 2009 |

Friday evening in the Storm Center - An interesting pattern developing over the next few days. A real nice warm-up on Saturday.We may not hit the high for the day until after sunset as warm, humid air continues to stream in from the southwest all day. The price we pay is a chance for spotty rain showers. Most of the rain should be light with less than 1/10 of an inch of accumulation in most areas.

On Sunday ours winds will have shifte...



Impending Doom

9:29 PM Fri, Dec 12, 2008 |

As if the Monday morning commute isn't threatening enough with the I-64/Hwy 40 ordeal - how 'bout we throw down some ice to make it interesting. We're still on track for a rain to ice to snow storm early next week. As usual I'm seeing some variance from model run to model run but there is enough consistancy to warrent the hype.

As of Friday evening at 9:30 I'm still not convinced that the temperature Monday morning will be below freez...



Bad Timing

7:57 PM Wed, Dec 10, 2008 |

The moment we've all been waiting for is almost here. On Monday, December 15 Interstate 64/Highway 40 is scheduled to re-open from I-270 to I-170. Now if the weather will just cooperate.

As we head toward the weekend we look forward to a nice warm-up. A brief set-back on Friday as a weak clipper pushes through with a chance for a few flurries. After that it gets windy and mild on Saturday. Sunday looks mild too but there is a chance f...



Thanksgiving Weekend Snow!

12:35 PM Sun, Nov 30, 2008 |

What a beautiful Winter scene it was early this Sunday morning. Our first snow accumulation of the season! Not much left in the city this morning but outer counties still had a light coat of white.

Winter Weather Advisories remain in effect in northern and western portions of the News 4 viewing area where we could see some additional accumulations of an inch or less. Very little additional accumulations are expected in the metropolita...



Thanksgiving looks good , however...

5:35 PM Wed, Nov 26, 2008 |

I think it's reasonable to expect chilly weather on Thanksgiving day. Last year it was in the mid 60s on Wednesday but on Thanksgiving day the high was only 38 degrees. This year we've been enjoying a nice mild trend that should continue through the holiday. Look for highs in the mid 50s Thursday and back down to the mid 40s on Friday.

Then there's the weekend.

The 4 Warn Storm team has been tracking a complex set of elements t...



Winter Watches and Warnings

5:28 PM Tue, Nov 18, 2008 |

When you think of weather watches and warnings I'll bet you identify them with severe thunderstorms and tornadoes. While severe convective storms and flooding certainly pose a significant threat to life and property, Winter weather can also be severe in it's own way.

The National Weather Service has a complete list of advisories, watches and warnings for Winter weather. I've copied most of them from our >> Continue reading: Winter Watches and Warnings



Changes Ahead

5:35 PM Tue, Nov 04, 2008 |

You knew it wouldn't last much longer. Our temperatures since the weekend have been well above normal. Wednesday will continue that trend. As a strong low pressure system and attendant cold front steam in our direction out of the Great Basin, our southerly winds will drive temperatures well into the 70s. Winds will gust in excess of 30 mph at times. Wednesday night into Thursday morning we will see a chance of showers and thunderstorm...



Winter Outlook

9:33 PM Wed, Oct 15, 2008 |

I've had numerous questions lately about whether our wet pattern will continue into the Winter, manifesting itself in heavy snow. First let's talk about where we are so far: We picked up an additional 0.37 inches of rain today bringing our annual total to 50.91 inches. If we don't get another drop of precipitation for the rest of the year we have seen the 4th wettest year on record in St. Louis. Impressive indeed.

The official Winter o...



Let's Go Flying!

4:21 PM Thu, Sep 18, 2008 |

What a beautiful blue sky we have enjoyed all week in St. Louis. Temperatures have been cool in the morning and warm in the afternoon. I tend to get supercharged in weather like this and find ways to do things outside. After a rough weekend of record rainfall our local golf courses should have all recovered nicely by this weekend so get out and enjoy.

One of the signature outdoor events in St. Louis every year is the Great Forest P...



Nice Here But Not In The Gulf

6:23 PM Thu, Aug 28, 2008 |

August has been a very tolerable month in St. Louis. Known for having oppressive heat and humidity this time of year we really got a break this in 2008. This does not mean that the cold season will be any colder than normal. In fact the 3 month forecast that takes us into Autumn is calling for a chance of above normal temperatures.

After some strong storms this evening (Thursday) I expect a near perfect 3 day weekend to cap off our Su...



A Nice Break

8:27 PM Fri, Aug 15, 2008 |

Greetings all. Kent Ehrhardt here in the 4 Warn Storm Center. Since late last week Steve Templeton and I have had our eyes on an unusual upper level low pressure system. Unusual because this time of year we don't normally see these types of weather systems. Based on the consistency of the models from run to run we were anticipating a fairly wet pattern over the weekend. Not a wash-out, but it appeared rain was likely. But beginning early yeste...



One More Hot Day

8:36 PM Mon, Aug 04, 2008 |

At least it was brief. Tuesday will see temperatures rise into the upper 90s for the second day in a row. With heat indicies expected to soar to near 110 an Extensive Heat Warning is in effect through Tuesday evening. About the time the heat warning expires we should see the threat for thunderstorms move into the area. Some of the storms could be se...



We Caught A Break

9:41 PM Fri, Aug 01, 2008 |

Earlier this week we were calling for intense heat this weekend. But a little cool front is pushing through this evening (Friday) and that should be enough to keep it tolerable this weekend. Make no mistake it will be hot, but temperatures will be closer to normal. In fact the deep humidity that resulted in the fog on Thursday and Friday mornings will decrease.

Bottom Line: Hot this weekend but a little less humid.

The bad news...



Unhealthy Air

7:56 PM Wed, Jul 16, 2008 |

The St. Louis air quality forecast for Thursday, July 17 is ORANGE

For over a decade the News 4 Storm Team has provided the official daily EPA ozone forecast for the St. Louis region. The forecast we produce here in the 4 Warm Storm Center is distributed to newspapers, radio stations and even other TV stations. It's a unique challenge for us and one we take very seriously.

This year our responsibilities have b...



Saturday Storms

9:28 PM Thu, Jul 10, 2008 |

I think we'll see some thunderstorms on Friday mainly from metro St. Louis westward. But my forecast focus most of this week has been another potent cold front on track to push through here late Saturday. Showers and thunderstorms are likely along and ahead of the front and some of the storms could be severe late Saturday into Saturday night.

The good news is the air behind this front, once again, is a little drier and a little cooler...



More Extreme Weather

9:11 PM Fri, Jul 04, 2008 |

I doubt you've ever heard me refer to "Global Warming" on TV. That doesn't mean I don't address global climate though. I prefer to refer to it as "Climate Change". I'm no expert on it but I have attended several confrences that focused on the changing climate of our planet. In fact more and more meteorological conferences over the past few years have dedicated much of their content to Climatology. In a nutshell here's my thoughts:

...



Forecast For The 4th

4:14 PM Thu, Jul 03, 2008 |

These are never easy. All of us in the 4 Warn Storm Center have been pondering this holiday forecast for over a week now. Since we went to a 7-day forecast it adds just a little more pressure when we approach a holiday. Especially a warm season holiday that is so dependent on outdoor activities. So as of 4:15 Thursday afternoon here's our thinking:

A cool front that pased through St. Louis earlier this morning continues to make good pr...



River Flooding Forecasts

8:58 PM Tue, May 06, 2008 |

Here is a link to the latest river information for our region from the National Weather Service.

http://www.crh.noaa.gov/ahps2/index.php?wfo=lsx

...



Another Round Of Heavy Rain

8:01 PM Tue, May 06, 2008 |

Tuesday evening in the Storm Center and Steve Templeton and I are going over the latest Super Predictor output. If you saw my weathercast at 5:00 today you may recall that I mentioned that we will be watching the track and timing of this next system very carefully. The models have consistently produced a swath of heavy rain across our area. Some areas could see up to 5 inches of rain and that seems reasonable. But with each new computer model ...



Severe Threat On Friday

8:31 PM Thu, May 01, 2008 |

As with any severe weather threat this one has it's uncertainties. The models have been speeding up the timing with each new run. As of this (Thursday) evening Steve Templeton and I have narrowed the severe threat timing down to between 10 am and 5 pm on Friday. We may see a few isolated showers and storms earlier Friday morning but the instablility seems to peak from 10-5. The threat will move from west to east across the viewing area so the ...



A Pretty Good Forecast

9:02 PM Fri, Feb 01, 2008 |

Well that's 2 significant snow storms so far this season and I'm feeling pretty good about our forecasts. The metro-east was hardest hit this time around as the Super Predictor indicated on Thursday. The timing worked out well as the storm was winding down by early Friday morning. Matt and Steve did a great job handling the duties on Friday morning. Those guys are the best. I've been doing this for almost as long as those two have bee...



Latest On The Snow

6:16 PM Wed, Jan 30, 2008 |

As of 6:00 Wednesday evening I think we're still on track for a major winter storm to impact the St. louis area beginning Thursday afternoon. While much of this script remains unwritten there are a few ingredients that appear to be coming togther as planned. A deepening low pressure system is rolling out of the southwest and it appears it will be following a track very similar to what several of the models have been advertising.

So I...



Back To Winter

9:39 PM Tue, Jan 15, 2008 |

The next 6 weeks are the toughest for me. I consider mid January through February the dead of Winter. March can be pretty rough too but by then at least there's light at the end of the tunnel. Early last week we enjoyed record highs, the so-called January thaw. Temperatures so far this week have been pretty nice but they are about to turn ugly.

I expect a brief bout of mixed precipitation beginning late Wednesday night into midday on T...



Historic Snowfall.

7:11 AM Sun, Dec 16, 2007 |

It's 7:00 on Sunday morning and I'm here in the Storm Center...again. I've been providing some updates on the air and the web to keep everyone informed. Blowing and drifting snow is still a problem but at least the snowfall has ended. But not without fanfare.

Snowfall totals ranged from under an inch in the far southern counties, where it mixed with sleet and rain, to over 8 inches to the northeast.

Officially Lambert received...



Sunday in the Storm Center

9:18 AM Sun, Dec 09, 2007 |

It's been a busy morning here in the Storm Center. I've been providing live coverage on the air at the top and bottom of every hour. So far it's all going about as planned. Marginal freezing conditions in St. Louis but as you travel west and north of town things get bad fast.

Several reports of accidents along I-70 and I-270. Boone and Clark bridges are slick and I-64 in the Gumbo Flats (Chesterfield Valley) is tricky. Temperatures ar...



Tuesday Evening Update

8:48 PM Tue, Nov 20, 2007 |

Here's the latest on the approaching storm:

As of 9:00 Tuesday evening Skytracker Doppler Radar is indicating a line of showers just about to enter the northwest portion of our viewing area. I expect this line to continue moving to the southeast with the front (wind shift) moving through St. Louis about 4:00 AM. Showers and a few thunderstorms are likely overnight with temperatures dropping into the 50s. No severe stor...



BIG Changes Ahead

5:33 PM Mon, Nov 19, 2007 |

Last week Steve Templeton and I took notice of a developing storm system that was indicating a chance of a change-over to snow near Thanksgiving day. As meteorologists, we always seem to be in a conundrum with these extended forecasts. On top of that it always seems to happen around a holiday.

On one hand we are compelled to provide you with a "heads-up" if we see the potential for an important storm, especially if it occurs near a ho...



Friday Travel Update

7:52 PM Fri, Nov 16, 2007 |

If you read Steve's blog from Thursday you know that we have our eye on a storm that is expected to develop early next week. I say expected because as of Friday evening it's just a wave of clouds in the Pacific Ocean. Travel in the midwest over the weekend shouldn't be a problem as I don't expect any precipitation or wind issues.

Monday - It will be breezy from St. Louis up through the Great Lakes, including Chicago, b...



More data, less risk

8:20 PM Thu, Nov 08, 2007 |

Many of you know that I spent 14 years forecasting, reporting on and chasing hurricanes when I worked in West Palm Beach, Florida. When meteorologists first had access to satellite imagery back in the mid 20th century it provided a wealth of data never before available to forecasters. Before that we had to rely on shipping and rare pilot reports for the latest from the tropics. It's likely that many tropical storms went unreported simply becau...



October Tornado Record

3:28 PM Wed, Oct 31, 2007 |

Remember the severe weather outbreak we experienced earlier in the monrth. The Storm Prediction center is reporting that we had a record tornado outbreak and one of the busiest October for tornadoes on record.

Here's a link to the release from the Storm Prediction Center:

http://www.noaanews.noaa.gov/stories2007/20071031_tornado.html

...



Sunshine For The Weekend

8:54 PM Fri, Oct 26, 2007 |

It's going to be a sunny weekend in St. Louis in more ways than one!

First of all the weather is shaping up beautifully. After a foggy start the sun should break out on Saturday. Then a chilly start on Sunday (perhaps the coldest yet) with sunny, cool and dry weather the rest of the day. The next chance for rain appears to be Thursday next week.

It will be EXTRA sunny here at News 4 this weekend as we welcome the newest member...



Storms Tonight

5:28 PM Wed, Oct 17, 2007 |

It's been a busy afternoon in the 4 Warn Storm Center as we never stop tracking threatening weather. A serious severe storm outbreak is underway from southwest Missouri into Kansas, Oklahoma and Arkansas. That is where the most unstable atmosphere resides but if any strong storms develop there they may have the ability to move into our area late this Wedneday evening. The rain threat appears to end by Thursday morning. Friday will be cooler wi...



October Temperatures

3:57 PM Tue, Oct 09, 2007 |

As I'm sure you've figured out by now the first week of October was warmer than normal. In fact it was the warmest first week of October on record in St. Louis and several other communities. Here's a link to more information from the local National Weather Service office:

http://www.crh.noaa.gov/crnews/display_story.php?wfo=lsx&storyid=10505&sourc...



Fall Color

8:18 PM Fri, Oct 05, 2007 |

It's looking a little bleak for Fall color. It's been a tough year for trees. An ice storm in January, hard freeze in April and the intense heat and drought of late Summer have all taken their toll. There's rain in my forecast for Monday and cooler tempertures for the middle of the week. That may help a little. Some area trees have shed leaves but that is more a result of heat and drought stress than the season.

The cooler temperatures...



Update on The 10/2 Storms

9:00 PM Thu, Oct 04, 2007 |

Wanted to give you all the opportunity to see the latest photos and info from the National Weather Service regarding storms that rolled through Missouri and Illinois on Tuesday night. If you were watching yesterday (Wed.) at 5:00 and 6:00 you know that I was up in Palmyra reporting live on the damage. The owner of the welding company that had the damage was in one of his large pole barn buildings when the storm hit. Fortunately he wasn't hurt....



I'm Okay With Warm

10:23 PM Thu, Sep 27, 2007 |

I know I'm getting old (51 next month). But having grown up here, and slipped my way through more than my share of snow and ice, I'd just as soon keep the warm temperatures around for as long as possible. Yes I love Autumn--dry air, chilly nights and of course the color. Nothing beats a round of golf in a sweater and comfy Dockers. And my favorite sport, motocross, is at it's best in the Fall. The ground holds the moisture and with all the gea...



Rainfall deficit

6:55 PM Wed, Sep 26, 2007 |

Since the beginning of the Summer we are almost 4 inches behind a normal rainfall pace. The most severe drought is over southeastern Missouri and southern Illinois. If you've checked the 5 day forecast you know that there is a chance of a few thunderstorms on Sunday. This does not look to be a very potent system though so rainfall may be limited. The good news is that the medium range precipitation forecast from the Climate Prediction Center i...



Drought Busting Rain?

4:32 PM Tue, Sep 04, 2007 |

Tropical moisture continues to increase across our area. A few spotty showers and thunderstorms broke out mainly south and west of St. Louis this afternoon. More widespread rainfall is expected beginning Wednesday with the best rain chance on Thursday and Friday.

Here's a look at the latest drought outlook from the Climate Prediction Center.

>> Continue reading: Drought Busting Rain?



What Is A Dewpoint?

8:49 PM Mon, Jul 09, 2007 |

Relative humidity can be a difficult concept to understand. It is expressed as a percentage...but a percentage of what? In the simplest terms I can manage relative humidity is a measure of how full the atmosphere is of water vapor at a given temperature. The temperature is the key because warm air will hold more water vapor than cold air. Say we have a parcel of air that is 80 degrees with a relative humidity of 60%. If we ra...



Flooding Rains

9:27 PM Wed, Jun 27, 2007 |

A Flash Flood Watch is in effect until 7:00 Thursday evening in anticipation of another round (or two) of heavy rain and thunderstorms. These storms have been slow movers over the last few days and even though some of the area has seen little rain, other spots have already measured over 2 inches. The National Weather Service issues a Flash Flood Watch when they expect forecast rain to cause area streams, creeks and low lying/f...



Another Active Hurricane Season Expected

5:47 PM Tue, May 22, 2007 |

After spending 14 years forecasting in South Florida I can't help but keep tabs on the Atlantic Hurricane Season (June - November). I was in South Florida when Hurricane Andrew struck in August of 1992. I chased landfalling hurricanes from Texas to the Carolinas. But you don't have to be a Meteorologist to realize that we are seeing more and stronger landfalling hurricanes in the U.S.

Which brings us to the release of the government's...



Cool Friday Morning, Then Warmer Weekend

4:18 PM Thu, May 17, 2007 |

Lots of people are talking how they love this cool refreshing air and are openning the windows while letting the A/C take a break. But have the blankets handy if your windows are open tonight, it's going to be chilly with lows in the mid to low 40s. Kent and I are forecasting a low for St. Louis of 45, but outlying areas could very well be near 40. The record low at Lambert Airport is 39, which I think will remain a record as we get within 5...



Wet Days

5:39 PM Wed, May 02, 2007 |

Static weather patterns can be good or bad. This time of year if we can get a strong ridge of high pressure over us we normally enjoy days of sunny, warm weather. Obviously that is not what is happening right now.

Here's the deal: A nearly stationary front is meandering to our south. This boundary marks the edge of two air masses. A cooler one to the north and a warm and humid one to the south. A slow moving low presssure system over ...



Taste Of Summer...won't last

3:55 PM Mon, Apr 30, 2007 |

Steve here in the weather center and what a Monday! It was our first 90 degree day of the year. Monday was a nice taste of summer, however this hot weather will not last the rest of the week.

The trend for the work week is cooler high temperatures in the low 80s and even low 70s. More clouds and several waves of rain will move through, giving us a chance of rain every day this work week.

When will it rain?
On Tuesday we ...



Now THAT"S A Weekend!

6:40 PM Fri, Apr 20, 2007 |

Was it really just a week ago that we had such miserable weather? On Saturday, April 14 the low temperature was 37 and the high was 42. The chill was compounded by brisk winds that gusted up to 29 mph. Over a half inch of a mix of rain, sleet and snow fell. What a difference this Saturday will be!

With the return of the warmer temperatures comes a chance of thunderstorms. I think the storms will hold off until late Sunday so most of t...



Saturday In The Weather Center

6:10 PM Sat, Mar 31, 2007 |

Sometimes it's not so great to be King. As Chief Meteorologist I feel compelled to be here whenever significant weather threatens. That's certainly not a result of any lack of confidence in Aimee or the rest of the staff. It's just part of the job. It can be particularly tough on the weekends when I'd much rather be home with the family and our new puppy but in this case it's probably just a couple more hours.

Sometimes it seems like ...



No More Frost?

8:10 PM Tue, Mar 27, 2007 |

March 2007 is going to go down as one of the warmest on record. Bulbs have flowered and trees are blooming at full speed. While the warm and occasionally wet weather has greened up our lawns an unusually warm early Spring is not all good news. Our average last frost of the year occurs on about April 1 (no foolin"). Here are some other frosty facts for St. Louis:

Average last frost - April 1 (32 or less as measured at Lambert) ...



March is a crazy month!

10:36 PM Tue, Mar 20, 2007 |

Autumn and Spring are challenging times for Meteorologists. The atmosphere is in an uproar trying to decide if it wants to be warm or cold. Forecasting that transition is an invitation to bust city for forecasters. More importantly though, Spring weather can be violent. Last year we suffered through those terrible tornadoes that Steve wrote about earlier in the week. Does anyone remember the 3 inches of snow on March 20 and 21? Steve plans to ...



The "Longer" Days Of Spring

8:25 PM Fri, Mar 09, 2007 |

Okay they're not actually longer but starting this weekend it will stay light later. Daylight Saving (not "savings") Time began during World War I in an effort to save energy by taking advantge of later hours of daylight. This year DST has been extended by 3 weeks, from the second weekend of March to the first weekend of November. Here's some other trivia about DST.

* During the six and a half month period of daylight saving time the ...



March Is Roaring In!

5:36 PM Wed, Feb 28, 2007 |

Latest storm system on track to rattle us with thunderstorms overnight and into Thursday. Threats focus on strong winds and hail late tonight. Heavy rain potential warrents a Flash Flood Warning for northern parts of the viewing area. A broken line of storms should form over western and central Missouri early on Thursday morning then race east through our area and exit before noon. This line may contain supercells which could produce to...



Deja Vu

8:44 PM Tue, Feb 27, 2007 |

This next storm is very similar to the storm that wrecked most of last weekend. It really seems to want to wrap up into a tight circulation which means lots of wind. Wouldn't be surprised to see some gusts to 40 mph Thursday. The SPC slight risk area is very similar to the one posted late last week. Although we had a couple of cells go severe in Warren and St. Charles counties the worst was to ou...



When Is Winter Over?

7:31 PM Thu, Feb 15, 2007 |


Hey there, it's Steve here in the weather center.

It's funny that during December (the 16th warmest December on record in St. Louis) I was asked, "Where's Winter?".

Now the question is more like "When is Winter Over?". If you want it warmer, then you're in luck...sort of. Friday morning will be one of the if not the coldest morning of the Winter. But then it warms quickly Friday afternoon, and by next week we'll be b...



I Love It When A Plan Comes Together

12:38 PM Tue, Feb 13, 2007 |

Very impressive Winter storm. I was outside for live shots at noon Downtown and thought for a minute I was in Chicago. Haven't seen a storm like this for a while. Our reporters and photographers are arriving back at the station from their morning assignments and they're pretty rattled by the driving conditions. Even though the accumulating snow is tapering off as of right now (12:45 pm) strong winds and falling temperatures are going to make t...



Relief From The Cold In Sight? Well...Yes And No

5:59 PM Wed, Feb 07, 2007 |

We appear to be locked in to this cold pattern for at least the next 2 weeks. There may be some brief excursions above freezing but the normal highs this time of year are in the low to mid 40s. That's the bad news. The good news is that in 2 weeks we'll be into the last week of February and closing in on Spring!

In the mean time here's the latest 8 to 14 day temperature outlook from the Climate P...



Not All El Ninos Are Created Equal

8:20 PM Thu, Feb 01, 2007 |

When you mention El Nino most of us here in the midwest think of dry, mild Winters. On the west coast they relate to wet winters and mudslides. In Florida and along the Gulf and Atlantic coasts El Ninos supress hurricane activity (that's a good thing). But each El Nino has it's own unique characteristics. Some are weak and others are strong. Some extend through more than one season while others come and go relatively quickly.

This Win...



Weekend Storm Summary

7:30 PM Sun, Jan 21, 2007 |

Here's a summary of our weekend storm from the national Weather Service office in Weldon Spring.


Download file

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More Snow Wednesday?

1:01 PM Sun, Jan 21, 2007 |

The Sunday storm has pretty much come and gone. Up to 6 inches on the ground in parts of the viewing area so I feel pretty good about the forecast. This one was much easier than most. Of course my eyes are on the next potential snowmaker on Wednesday but on a personal note I'm more concerned about next Saturday and Sunday. I mean, can I get at least one weekend off this month!!!

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We Await The Snow

10:36 AM Sat, Jan 20, 2007 |

Good morning all. The Weather Service dropped the Winter Storm Watch in favor of a Snow Advisory. An indication of their confidence that we will be seeing significant snow totals. Rain snow line still sets ups precariously close to St. Louis. I'll call that the wild card for now. Initiation looks to be around 10 pm to midnight in metro, earlier to the west. 5 inches +/- in my forecast. Freezing rain and sleet still in the mix south of St. Loui...



8:43 PM Thu, Jan 18, 2007 |

Still on track for what should be a pretty decent snowmaker this weekend. Moisture certainly in place to our south courtesy a very impressive low lattitude jet. Rain from Mexico through Texas into western Tennessee. Some freezing rain and sleet in colder temperatures at night. Although the main upper level energy tracks a little farther north in recent model runs, latest ensemble run produces 3 to 6 inches of snow in heaviest bands (not necess...



At Least I Tried!

5:36 PM Tue, Jan 16, 2007 |

As many of you know I spent last week in Steamboat Springs, Colorado at the annual Steamboat Weather Summit. CBS News was there and did a nice report. You can see the entire piece by clicking on the red button on our home page.

The Steamboat trip is a real highlight for me and I look forward to going every year. I think I've been to 16 of the conferences having only missed one when I broke my leg racing motocross back in '99. I've had...



It's Wet But At Least It's Not Ice!

5:41 PM Sun, Jan 14, 2007 |

I'll take rain over ice any day. We've still got a chance for some ice overnight, maybe even some snow, but it looks like temperatures in the metro area will remain above freezing until later tonight and then the precipitation should end. Western portions of the viewing area are still seeing temperatures at or below freezing though. Of course I'll update the 5 day forecast tonight at 10:00. But I will tell you that I expect some very winter-l...



More Ice Headed This Way.

3:28 PM Sat, Jan 13, 2007 |

As of 3:00 Saturday afternoon (1/13/07) we await the onslaught of yet another wave of freezing rain and sleet. It seems, sometimes, as if St. Louis is right on the rain snow line in these events and this one is certainly no exception. A drive down highways 40 and 70 from west to east reveals quite a different scene. In St. Charles and western St. Louis County trees are laden with a thick, heavy coating of ice. Closer to the city and into the m...