Effects from the storm will be felt on our coast with increased wave action today and a coastal flood watch in effect. Only minor flooding of low lying coastal spots is expected.

Inland we remain mostly cloudy today with highs in the 70's. A drier air mass will move in tonight and make for cool mornings and warm afternoons with lower humidity Tuesday through Thursday.

This area of rain will be accompanied by an area of low pressure which will push water and waves on to the upper Texas coast bringing a chance for minor coastal flooding. This rain has nothing to do with 'Ida.'

Ida is currently a depression over central America. The hurricane center is forecasting Ida to re-emerge and re-develop into a tropical storm and enter the eastern gulf on Tuesday. The forecast takes in into Florida on Wednesday night. If that forecast verifies the effects on the Texas coast from Ida will be minimal.

The forecast from the hurricane center is for Ida to weaken back to depression strength over the next two days as it crosses over central America.

Although the extended forecast has Ida re-developing back to tropical storm strength and hedding into the southern gulf on Tuesday morning, I must remind you (and myself) that there is a tremendous amount of uncertainty in that extended timeframe.

Simply put, I urge you to monitor the storms strength and forecast over the weekend as it may be able to survive its treck across land and get into the gulf early next week.

Where will Ida go?

Once it comes inland, it may be downgraded to a tropical depression for a few days and then it is expected to re-emerge in the Western Caribbean as a tropical storm again because the waters there are still warm enough to support it. After that, it will drift toward the Gulf of Mexico. Upper level winds will still likely steer this storm toward Texas and away from us by the middle of next week.

We're still not out of the woods from feeling a tropical impact later this weekend, however. A mass of clouds in the Bay of Campeche is still poised to drift northward by Sunday bringing elevated tides and squally rain from late Sunday into Monday.

The Hurricane Hunter plane check the storm out this afternoon and indeed found tropical storm force winds, which is why Ida was upgraded from a tropical depression to a storm. The forecast track shows Ida hugging the coasts of Costa Rica, Nicaragua and Honduras, bringing heavy rains to those areas. Then the system will briefly weaken to a tropical depression again and then re-form as a tropical storm in the still warm waters of the Western Caribbean by Monday:

A tropical system in November? Yes, its rare, but just last year, around this time, there was a powerful hurricane (Cat 5 Paloma) in the Caribbean. Check my previous blog entry for a map of November tropical storms.

Computers are not overly agressive in developing this system. However, intensity forecasts are 'iffy' at best and this thing could quicly strengthen. What there is of it will probably just sit near Honduras for the next couple of days before dirfting N-NE.

Will it impact the gulf?? We'll just take it one day at a time. I urge you to check here and get morning updates beginning at 4:30am the rest of the week and through the weekend.

However, the other circled mass of clouds in the southern Gulf of Mexico (the Bay of Campeche) has a good chance of bringing us our next rain chance by late Sunday or during the day Monday. It won't become an organized tropical system however.

While it's rare to have a tropical system in November, it has happened before. This plot shows all of the tropical storms and hurricanes that have formed in the Gulf and Caribbean since 1861:

As you can see, it's more likely for a system to develop in the Western Caribbean, but there have been hurricanes in the Gulf of Mexico. I've marked two of them: Jeanne in 1980 and Juan in 1985, which came into southern Louisiana. There has never been a land-falling tropical system on the upper Texas coast in November and I doubt that record will be set with either of the two blobs out there now.

Expect more perfect weather for election day today and the rest of the week. A tad bit warmer over the coming weeknd.

Rain chances pick up on Monday and Tuesday of next week as a pacific storm system rolls in.

Otherwise, except for the high ragweed pollen count, near perfect weather for the rest of the week!

Lows in the upper 40's and low 50's may call for a jacket if you are voting Tuesday morning... then a warm up into the low 70's by lunchtime and a high in the mid 70's.

Hurricane season lasts through the end of November and althoug we are watching a little swir out near Bermuda, at this point it poses no threat to the United States. We'll keep an eye on it.

Enjoy the weather and have a great week!

Flooding of Lake Point Dr. and Thelma in Northshore and Rivercrest Subdivisions may cut off homes during the weekend. Roads in the subdivision west of US 59 at the end of Hamblin Rd. will become impassable. No homes are expected to flood.

The good news is the rain is coming to an end and the flash flood watch has been canceled. Expecting nice chilly weather for football tonight and a lovely weekend for the air show at Ellington and trick-or-treating. Temps should be in the mid 60's for the little ghosts and goblins.

Dry weather expected through most of next week.

Southeast winds returned today, pumping plenty of warm low-level Gulf moisture back into the area. At the same time, the front has entered the Panhandle tonight, where temperatures are in the 40s.

The contrast between cold and warm and a strong jet stream moving over the front as is heads our way could also mean another problem: severe weather.

Some of the storms that develop ahead of the front could pack a punch with gusty winds the main threat.

Here's how things will unfold:

You'll need an umbrella Thursday, but break out the jackets for Friday as a cool rain falls and temperatures slip back into the low 60s. By late Friday, the whole mess slides east and we'll be left with another great fall weekend with chilly mornings and mild afternoons. Trick-or-treaters, you probably won't need a jacket to cover those great costumes as temperatures Saturday night will be in the low to mid 60s under clear skies.

Heavy bands of rain rolled across southeast sections of our viewing area leaving some of the highest totals:

Water covered roads in Clear Lake and parts of Clear Creek began to overflow its banks. That made for a very messy morning commute, but thankfully, the rain did move through, pushed out by a cool front that swept in. Skies gradually cleared and gusty winds delivered cooler and drier air which will make for a nice weekend.

Here's how cool it should get tonight:

With less wind and clear skies, the coldest temperatures we'll see will occur tomorrow night into Friday morning:

That's when you might need to turn up the heat, or at least throw a blanket on the bed.