The watch means that periods of heavy rain could cause flooding. We had hard rain last Thursday and this past Monday, so the ground is fairly saturated. Also, if you've checked area bayous, they're about half-full. So as the rain falls Thursday and Friday and runoff enters the bayous, I expect they'll rise quickly. Watch out for roadways you know that usually flood, because that will likely happen with this next event.

Southeast winds returned today, pumping plenty of warm low-level Gulf moisture back into the area. At the same time, the front has entered the Panhandle tonight, where temperatures are in the 40s.

The contrast between cold and warm and a strong jet stream moving over the front as is heads our way could also mean another problem: severe weather.

Some of the storms that develop ahead of the front could pack a punch with gusty winds the main threat.

Here's how things will unfold:

You'll need an umbrella Thursday, but break out the jackets for Friday as a cool rain falls and temperatures slip back into the low 60s. By late Friday, the whole mess slides east and we'll be left with another great fall weekend with chilly mornings and mild afternoons. Trick-or-treaters, you probably won't need a jacket to cover those great costumes as temperatures Saturday night will be in the low to mid 60s under clear skies.