KGW Weather

The Cascades are at it again!

Sun, 13 Jul 2008 19:14:41 -0800

A large and growing wildfire is raging near Mt. Adams tonight. That fire, the Cold Springs Fire, is a tough one to fight because the weather just isn't cooperating. Hot temperatures and low humidity are the main culprits, and there isn't much relief on the horizon.

Of course, here in the Pacific Northwest the ocean - and cool and moist ocean air - is never all that far away. Unless you live on the eastern side of the Cascades. The Cascades act as a natural barrier, keeping the cool and moist Pacific air from making it any further east than the Cascades crest. You can easily see the impacts when you compare a photo of the Willamette Valley to a photo of the high desert of Oregon. Lush forest compared to a much drier landscape that's not all that far away.

All this has huge implications for the Cold Springs Fire. The Willamette Valley will be cooling off this week as cool Pacific air returns to the region. The humidity in the valleys will be going up a bit, too. But that cool and moist air - air that would be a huge relief for firefighers near Mt. Adams - that air won't make it that far east. It won't make it to the site of the Cold Springs Fire. And the reason is the Cascade Range.

Here's to wishing those brave firefighers luck...

Joe

Another Shot Of Hot

Tue, 08 Jul 2008 09:58:38 -0800

Sizzle! Sunny skies and hot weather are back. High temperatures today will climb into the lower 90s.

If you think it's hot here try Southern Oregon. Triple digit temperatures will likely greet our neighbors down state. I don't see much relief from the hot weather until Thursday. Late in the week cooler air will arrive from the Oregon Coast.

Portland averages over 4 days a month in July with temperatures above 90 degrees. Today and tomorrow will be the first for the month. I'm also pretty sure we'll see many more days of 90 degrees plus before the end of the month.

quick additional note. Because of the hot weather a fire weather watch is in effect until tonight for the Coast Range from Cottage Grove to near McMinnville. The watch was issued because of the dry and hot conditions in that part of the state.

Dave

Notes From The 2008 AMS Weather Conference

Mon, 30 Jun 2008 12:31:24 -0800

I'm writing this from the Denver Airport on my way home from the annual American Meteorological Society's Broadcasters Conference. The conference is one way that helps me stay on top of all the advances in the science of weather and climate and the state of the industry of broadcasting. It's cool because it also gives me a chance to re-connect with broadcasters from other cities and share new ideas on how to best communicate with and connect to viewers.
The conference began with a one-day workshop on "dual polarity" Doppler radar. As if Doppler wasn't enough? Dual polarity radar gives information on rain droplet size and shape. It also gives us much better information on rainfall rates and accumulation. This is great for potential flood events, but also for distinguishing precipitation type and the freezing level. Cool huh? I think so. Eventually all the National Weather Service radars and hopefully Doppler 8000 will all be "dual pole" radars. Like all radars, dual polarity radars send out bursts of energy that bounce off targets (precipitation for weather radars) and then interpret the energy that bounces off those targets and returns to the radar. But what the heck is "polarity"? It means that the radar only reads energy oriented in one direction. Think of a doorway that has string of beads hanging in it, such as those that were popular in the 1960s or in some Chinese restaurants. People pass through the beads easily because our bodies are oriented vertically, like the strings of beads. But if you try to pass through the beads holding a broomstick perpendicular to the beads and parallel to the floor, you have a much harder time of it. This is an example of polarization. With dual pole radar, the radar first emits energy polarized vertically, and then emits the next burst with horizontal polarization. This all happens repeatedly and takes only microseconds since the radar energy bursts travel at the speed of light. The different polarities return different information about the targets, and that's how we can tell the difference between rain, snow and hail with dual-polarity radar. It's pretty cool science, and in some ways will be more useful to us in the Northwest than Doppler, which is excellent at showing wind patterns in thunderstorms that can tell us about possible tornadoes and other forms of damaging winds. We don't a lot of severe thunderstorms in the Northwest, but we do have a lot of severe weather related to snow, heavy rain and ice, and dual-polarity radars are great tools in those situations.

Much of the rest of the conference was dedicated to the discussion of climate change. We heard from many climate experts about the latest general circulation models (GCMs) and what they are predicting about the earth's climate and how we humans are impacting it. While there is much debate about how climate change will shake out region-by-region, and how fast world climate is changing, some things are clear.

We are changing the composition of the earth's atmosphere by adding carbon dioxide (CO2) and other gasses, mainly through the burning of fossil fuels. Here's a sobering fact: half of all the CO2 humans have added to the atmosphere since the beginning of the industrial revolution about 150 years ago has been added since 1983. Half. That means human-caused climate change is just now gearing up.

The latest research indicates we're likely to see more extreme precipitation events, and more frequent heat waves and less frequent cold waves. Does this mean it will never be cold again? Of course not. There is still a ton of natural variability in the atmosphere-ocean system. Climate features like our current La Nina will continue to have a major impact on our weather. But all indications are that the overall trend is toward a warmer planet.

There's been criticism lately of Academia by human-caused climate change deniers. Near as I can tell, they seem to think Academia has some hidden agenda for pushing climate change onto the general public. I asked some leading climate researchers at the National Center for Atmospheric Research (NCAR) about this and the response was: "I can always get funding for other types of research." I find it curious that human-caused climate change deniers seem to think that the over 2500 scientific reviewers of the International Panel on Climate Change (IPCC), which includes many of the worlds leading scientists from over 30 countries, are conspiring to pull something over on all of us. In my experience, getting ten meteorologists to agree on a two-day forecast can be difficult. Not that I think skepticism of science is a bad thing. It's a necessary and valuable part of the scientific process. The science put forth by the IPCC is open to anyone who cares to dive into it.

To be sure, there are problems with the 15 major GCMs that are used to forecast world climate. The role of the oceans as a source and sink of heat and CO2 needs to be greatly improved upon. Another weak point in the modeling is cloud physics. With more available water vapor in the atmosphere, how will clouds respond and will there be a net loss or gain of incoming solar radiation? The models also don't take into account the melting of perma-frost. This could be a major player in the release of greenhouse gases to the atmosphere.

Clearly, there is much work to be done to more fully understand and predict global climate. In the face of the potential for a rapidly changing climate, it's important that we all continue to talk about the weather, and try to do something about it.

Matt Zaffino
KGW Chief Meteorologist

Record Heat

Thu, 26 Jun 2008 21:00:05 -0800

It's going to get...

Nuff Said!

Well maybe I should write a little more, other wise Frank, our web guru will get a bit upset.

Here's the scoop. Friday through Monday will be the longest and hottest weather Portland has seen since last summer. Will we set any records? The answer I think is yes. Saturday temperatures will hit the upper 90s, that's about 25 degrees above normal for this time of year. 96 degrees is the existing record for Saturday. I think we'll either tie that or go slightly above.

It's going to be hard to escape the hot temperatures. Even the normally mild Oregon Coast will see temperatures in the 80s on Friday and Saturday. Inland Highs will climb into the low 90s.

But wait there's more... Central and Eastern Oregon are going simply bake. Sunday will be the hottest day east of the Cascades. Temperatures will climb between 97 to 104 degrees. That's Africa hot!

Temperatures will gradually cool down but it's going to take a few days. Monday the thermometer will back off to around 90. We'll also have to keep and eye out for the potentual for Thunderstorms near the Cascades. I don't think it will be until the middle of next week when temperatures get back down to near normal.

Stay cool
Dave

3 days 600 miles & two wheels

Mon, 23 Jun 2008 20:24:00 -0800

Most of you know that I ride my bicycle a lot. I really love to get out and pedal my way around Oregon. Long before I started riding bicycles I rode motorcycles. As a teenager I rode dirt bikes. That ended one day when my younger brother Douglas, decided to borrow my bike and proceeded to get into an accident. That Was about 30 years ago and is a story for another day, and believe me it's a good one too!

In the last couple of years I've rediscovered motorcycling. While it will never replace my bicycle It's great fun to go out and gobble up the miles and see some great sights in a shorter amount of time. This past weekend a buddy from work Jim Titus, his brother in law Kurt and yours truly set off for 3 days of adventure touring Eastern Oregon.

Living in Oregon the last 20 years I thought I had seen most of the state. Boy was I wrong! Here's a list of some some of the locations we rode through or stopped at. Pine Grove, Mt Vernon ( yes there's one in Oregon) Long Creek, Fox, and John Day. The town of John Day served as our base camp for the three day run. We joined up with over 700 other riders as part of the BMW riders of Oregon Rally. This is not your typical motorcycle rally,It reminded me of Cycle Oregon ( bicycle tour) Jim said yep just like Cycle Oregon only with gasoline.

One thing that always surprises me when I do a bicycle or motorcycle ride is just how big Oregon is. We could ride more than an hour and not see another soul on the road. Just the three of us the sound of the wind heard over the roar of our bikes. Stopping for pictures all you would see is hills, meadows, rivers and trees. The view would go on forever!

form mt:asset-id="8248" class="mt-enclosure mt-enclosure-image" style="display: inline;">

In Ukiah, I snapped the picture of Jim at the local gas station. The term politically correct hasn't caught on. I like people who are open and honest about their opinions. You might not agree, but at least you know where somebody stands.

In the tiny hamlet of Dayville, I found what might be the smallest city hall in the state!

Honest that is really the Dayville's city hall, Just a neatly painted and maintained one room building with flower boxes out in front. The building was closed when we pulled in. Other wise I would have made an effort to find out what the hot issues are in the town. Somehow light rail construction, moving bridges and enforcing a duct tape ban are reserved for us in the big city.

Oh just one more thing, to my brother Doug. If you read this, I'm hiding the keys to this motorcycle so you can't repeat your mistake. Mom would kill both of us if you crashed again!

Regards
Dave

Juneuary; Definition Of

Tue, 10 Jun 2008 16:14:32 -0800

The definition below from viewer John Rinier. Well done John! 14 inches of new snow at Meacham in northeast Oregon's Blue Mountains. 5" new at Timberline Lodge, bringing their weekly total to two feet, another 3" at Government Camp today and even an inch of snow at Laurel Mountain in the Coast Range southwest of Salem. Juneuary indeed. But don't worry the rest of the week brings back June and leaves out the "uary".

Matt Zaffino
KGW Chief Meteorologist

Juneuary jün-y-wer-ē, -we-rē [joon-yoo-er-ee]
-noun pl. Jun·u·ar·ies Abbr. Junry.

1. a season in the Northwest United States that occurs in the months of April and June where the weather or climate appears to be more like Winter instead of Spring
2. a seasonal weather pattern where the sun is concealed behind rain clouds that never end resulting in below average temperatures.

-adjective
1. a Winter-like cold rainy weather day in Spring.

-synonyms: cold, rainy, sunless, cloudy, misty, grey

Juneuary

c. 2008, Ieneuer, from O.N.Fr. Genever (Fr. Junvier), attested from c.2008 in Anglo-Fr., from L. Junuarius (mensis) "(the bad season) of Junus," to whom the season was sacred as the beginning of Spring (see Junusry; cf. It. Gennajo, Prov. Genovier, Port. Juneiro Gore). The form was Latinized by c.2008. Replaced O.E. geola se æfterra "the global unwarming." j.t. rinier

[Origin: bef. 2008; ME < L, n. use of Junuārius, equiv. to Junu(s) Junus + -ārius -ary after the name winter; r. ME Genever, Jeniver < AF, OF Genever, Junever Gore< L, as above or cold Spring rainy weather; r. OE Junuarius < L] j.t. rinier

[Middle English Junuarie, Junever, from Old North French Junever, from Latin Iānuārius (mēnsis), (season) of Junus, from Iānus, Junus; see ei- in Indo-European duck or beaver roots.] j.t. rinier

The chill is here to stay

Mon, 09 Jun 2008 16:28:49 -0800

It has been a long and chilly spring. Most temperatures have been unseasonably cool. June has brought a spat of near record-cold high temperatures. So some of you may be asking...and perhaps screaming...why?

Blame our good friend La Nina. This phenomenon - the cooler-than-average Pacific waters - cause worldwide changes to the atmospheric winds and weather patterns. It's bringing cooler-than-average temperatures into the Northwest. The good news is that La Nina is weakening. So we'll see a nice warmup for the summer, right?

Not so fast. Even though La Nina is breaking down, the weather patterns created by it have a sort of momentum...and that momentum means that this cool pattern may last well into summer. That's not to say it's going to be cloudy and cool all summer. Our bright July sunshine should arrive right on schedule. It just could be a bit cooler than what you might expect.

And one final note - I need to add an asterisk to all this (I'm a meteorologist, you know I had to do it). Our expectation for cooler-than-average temperatures this summer is based on the long-range outlook from the Climate Prediction Center. But it's just that - an outlook. It may still change.

We'll keep you posted!

Joe

Starlight Parade

Mon, 02 Jun 2008 08:48:55 -0800

The Rose Festival Starlight Parade is somethiing I look forward to each year. Rain or shine The Starlight Parade is really is a peoples parade. Don't get me wrong I like the floats and pagentry of the Grand Floral, but there is something that just screams Portland, when it comes to The Starlight Parade. The Royal Rosarians - ambassadors for the city it's our chance to walk in the parade, shake hands with residents and say thank you.

This year it was perfect parade marching and watching weather. Portland Police estimated about 250 thousand people lined the 3.5 mile route to watch the floats, bands and everybody else in the event.

While walking the parade route this year, I took along my little digital camera and snapped off some pictures of parade. Here is what The Starlight Parade looked like from my perspective.

Here's the Portland Police Bureau drum and bagpipe band

My bicycle buddy and fellow Rosarian Bruce Kent, with members of the Blaine Washington High School marching band. One of several dozen bands, many from out of state.

Members of the Royal Rosairians just before the parade. Some were threatening expulsion if it rained during our march!

Cancer survivors, in the pink! So is somebodys poodle.

Say Cheese!

Finally after 3.5 miles time to relax with some friends and fellow rosarians and enjoy a tini.

I need some vitamin sunshine!

Thu, 29 May 2008 13:16:47 -0800

A familar picture this week, cloudy gray skies over Portland. The good news is at least no rain or drizzle was falling when I uploaded the picture. Is it just me or has anybody else noticed the mood of a lot of people is matching the weather - kind of gray and blah. Here in the newsroom I've notice no amout of caffine can get people pepped up. I'm not a doctor and I certainly don't play one on TV but my diagnosis - is a lack of vitamins. Specifically vitamin sunshine.

I bet just looking the above picture from Timberline lodge has put you in a better mood! Your're thinking ahhhh... there is a spot somewhere close with blue skies.

Here are a couple of weather factoids for you. Temperatures have been near normal this month. The average high has been 67 degrees. Rain fall in May 2.03" is actually below normal by .15". So if temperatures have been near normal and rain has actually been less than normal, why is everybody in a funk? Two words - Cloud Cover! During the first 29 days in May 19 days have been cloudy or mostly cloudy. 9 days have been partly cloudy, Just 1 day has been clear and cloud free!

My 7day forecast does have some vitamin sunshine. Starting Friday we are going to get drier,warmer and sunnier weather returning to the forecast! The dry weather should even hold into the first weekend of Rose Festival! Saturdays Starlight Parade even looks to be dry, with only a chance of showers near the mountains.

Unoffical Start of Summer

Fri, 23 May 2008 10:05:09 -0800

I'm really glad this is the "unofficial start of summer" cause if this was the real thing it stinks! My email and telephone have been very busy today. People are not happy about the weather this weekend. Let me try to explain what's going on, basiclly the weather pattern has flip flopped.

Low pressure has set up east of the Cascades. I call this a back door low because the rain is coming in from the east instead of the west. This is just the opposite of our normal weather pattern.

You've heard the old saying "west is best?" As far as the weather goes this weekend it's true. The farther west you are the drier you will be. The heaviest rain will be just east of the Cascades, the driest on the Oregon Coast--go figure!

If there is one ray of hope temperatures will reach the upper 60s and low 70s later this weekend. If the skies do clear this weekend look up in the early morning hours, you might be able to see the International Space Station flying by.

I've posted a link below from NASA, it will show you when the ISS is scheduled to pass over Portland.

http://spaceflight.nasa.gov/realdata/sightings/cities/view.cgi?country=United_States®ion=Oregon&city=Portland"

Oh, just one more thing to my sister Mary who is camping this weekend in Central Oregon. I told you so!

Regards
Dave

Miles Davis, John Coltrane & The Cascades

Mon, 19 May 2008 09:34:46 -0800

Ok, I know it's a crazy way to title this entry of my blog but stay with me, it will all make sense. I hope it will anyway. Sunday I was flying back from my family's cabin in Idaho. It was a fantastic day-- blue skies, a few clouds. From 8,500 feet you could literally see for ever. As I was crossing the Cascades I snapped off some pictures.

So where do Miles Davis & John Coltrane come into this blog? I borrowed my friend Joe's airplane, he has an MP3 input mounted into the panel. So I pulled out my ipod and turned it on. Like magic the first set was some jazz from Davis and Coltrane. After I finished taking pictures of Hood, I turned the camera north and got this shot of Mt. Adams.

I can't end this blog entry without a little meteorology. The cloud you just see to the right of Mt. Adams if a perfect example of a Alto Cumulus Standing Lenticular or lens cloud. It's a great indicator that winds aloft are very fast and that changes in the weather will be happening soon.

So there you go some pretty pictures, a little jazz and a weather lesson all in one. At least I didn't title this entry Miles Davis, John Coltrane, The Cascades & Studebakers! That one I'll save for later ;-)

Dave

Blast Furnace

Fri, 16 May 2008 10:11:51 -0800

The newsroom is buzzing this morning. Two big stories, Hillary Clintons townhall tonight here at KGW. and the Hot weather. Glad I'm going to be getting out of here early this afternoon. We've been told the building goes into lockdown at 4PM. Secret Service is setting up metal detectors and banning cars in our covered parking lot. I feel sorry for those guys who will be standing out in the heat later today.

Speaking of heat, it's a blast furnace on the Oregon Coast. A strong off shore flow yesterday and a very warm airmass combined to bring an all time record high of 105 degrees to Brookings. There are unoffical reports of the thermometer hitting 108 near Gold Beach!

Today the heat is turned up in the Willamette Valley. I think we're going to see lots of new records before the day is over.

A heat advisory will remain in effect until at least 8 PM tonight. The advisory is posted for all of Western Oregon and Southwest Washington. I know I may sound like a broken record but if you have elderly neighbors it might be a good idea to check up on them today. Maybe offer a glass of ice tea. Better yet if you have AC invite them over.

The good news is these temperatures should only last a day. Saturday we'll begin to see some cooler air filter in from coast lowering temps. about 5 degrees. Sunday should be a very nice day with morning clouds then sunny. Quite a lot of cool air will spill in by early next week.

Regards
Dave

Flip Flops & A Hawaiian Shirt

Thu, 15 May 2008 09:05:33 -0800

Ah...The life of a producer here at the big 8 ski. Sean Jacks, our assistant producer for the noon news shows up to work wearing flip flops and an aloha shirt. When the weather heats up around here there are some serious advantages to working behind the camera.

My fashion advice for the next couple days is dress like Sean. It's going to get hot, the hottest temperatures we've had since last Summer.

Today I would classify as just very warm. Tomorrow is just down right hot! Like 90 degrees and higher hot. 90 degree days in Portland while rare aren't unheard of.

As you can see from the graphic above the most number of days we've had at 90 degrees or hotter is just 3. First in 1947 and again in 1987.

It's hard to believe that my forecast low tonight, 60 degrees is actually warmer than our high temperature on Tuesday, 59 degrees! The 90 and above temperatures should only last a day. Slightly cooler air will begin to filter in from coast Saturday and begin a slow cool down.

Regards

Dave

Summer Sizzle

Wed, 14 May 2008 13:51:26 -0800

Summer Sizzle

We've been advertising it for days now. Hot-very hot weather is about to move into the Pacific Northwest. We're not talking about some upper or lower 70s warm up. No I'm talking full fledged get our the flip flops and sun screen hot. I'm talking upper 80s and 90s. Computer models have been jumping around one says it's going to be 96 degrees Friday. Another shows 91 and a third is predicting 93. If you're wondering we're I'm going with this, it's this; Thursday - Sunday are going to look and feel more like August than May.

Specifically I'm going to go on the low side for Friday and call for a high temperature of 91. If that's not hot enough for you, try Southern Oregon. Areas around Medford and Grants Pass might be looking at triple digit numbers! I think slightly cooler air will begin to trickle in from the Oregon Coast Saturday and bring temperatures down a few degrees. Early next week the skies will remain dry but temperatures fall back into the upper 60s and lower 70s.

First Alert Storm Team: The Musical

Tue, 13 May 2008 21:34:42 -0800

That's overstating it a bit, it's really just a song. But overstating is kind of a theme here, so what the heck. This was sent to me to and written by blogger Ian Doescher. It's a song about the FIRST ALERT STORM TEAM and how our weather promotions scare people. Some times. Hopefully not too much. Well maybe just a little. Just kidding, we're here to inform and re-assure. Give a listen, it's pretty funny!

http://www.portlandsongs.com/One%20Year%20of%20Portland%20Songs%20Blog/F4D4C100-3E83-478E-B112-D5247C845194.html

What do you think? Sounds very B-52s to me. Well done Ian, the newsroom folks were rolling over this. Not sure about the promotions department.

Matt Zaffino

Chief Meteorologist

KGW Newschannel 8