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| November 2007 »
It's a bit of a joke with my golfing buddies, but if I call them up and say I made a tee time, they know the weather is going to be good. You can apply the same logic to the home generator we bought.
We recently moved a fairly remote part of town, and the neighbors all tell us when the power goes out, we're often the last ones to get it back because the power crews don't get to us until after most other areas are served. We got a preview last winter, so that's why we decided to bite the bullet and spend the cash on our own power supply. Since we're already on propane, we had the generator plumbed directly to the propane tank. No, I didn't do the work myself! It was a spendy proposition, especially for something we hope we'll never have to use. But the reaility is we will have to use it. And when you consider the cost of throwing away all the food in your fridge and freezer, along with eating out for 4 or 5 days straight and other expenses, the generator will probably pay for itself over five years or so. Not to mention the cold inconvenience of being without heat and hot water during the dead of winter. Our entire circuit breaker is wired to the generator, so we can choose which things to power, like the water pump and furnace, and fridge, and which things to leave without power, like the stereo system and little-used rooms.
So that begs the question: will it be a stormy winter? I believe it will be. With La Nina conditions like we have now, the Northwest often gets hammered with a wide variation of winter weather. That means we can go through cycles of cold weather with low elevation snow and ice to warm heavy rain and wind and back again. However, at this point in time the La Nina is strong. And during strong La Nina's the Northwest will sometimes have a cold but dry winter, so that's a possibility too.
For now, I'll keep making those tee times until it's time to get the skis out.
Matt Zaffino
KGW Chief Meteorologist
Our dry weather pattern continues across the Pacific Northwest. Depending on your outlook this is a trick or treat. A trick if you're a local ski resort opertor. Last week there was two feet of snow in the mountains. Resorts were hoping for an early start to the ski season. That hope has melted, just like the snow pack. The weather is a treat for those who are a little slow on finishing up outdoor projects. Temperatures remain mild and the skies dry.
Speaking of trick or treat here's my halloween forecast. It's not lookiing all that ghoulish...
Our weather is causing some problems, air quality. Oregon Department of Environmental Quality has issued an Air Pollution Advisory. A weak ridge of high pressure along with light winds is keeping pollutants trapped in the atmosphere. DEQ most of the problem is caused by smoke coming from wood stoves and exhaust from diesel engines.
DEQ is advising people who may suffer from lung ailments to restrict outdoor activities for the next few days.
Regards
Dave
A fall chill has definitely been in the air over the past several days, and some portions of the region have actually dipped below freezing. So you may be wondering - do I need to do anything to my vehicle now that the colder weather is rolling? Do I need to 'winterize' it?
The Washington Department of Transportation advises you to check the following components as the winter months roll in:
battery and lights
antifreeze - good to 25 degrees below zero
defroster and heater
belts, hoses and filters
motor oil
tire pressure
wiper blades and windshield washer fluid
brakes and brake fluid
Most of these things are checked when you get your oil changed, so you should be largely 'in the clear' as long as your car is being regularly maintained. One thing to double-check will be the antifreeze - just to make sure it's good down to negative 25 degrees.
Photo Courtesy Polk County, Wisconsin
Something else you can do to get ready for winter is to make sure you have an emergency kit ready, and to keep it in your car or truck - just in case. Things like extra blankets, gloves and boots, food and water, matches, jumper cables, and a flashlight can all come in handy if you get stuck up on a snowy mountain road.
Here's to a snowy winter! =)
Joe
A large storm is brewing...but it is actually in the Caribbean! Believe it or not, the Atlantic hurricane season runs through November 30, and it is still possible to see storms developing this late in the season. The current storm - Noel - is a great example.
It's sitting over water that is in the 80s - and that warm water is the fuel that drives these tropical systems. It's dumping very heavy rain on Hispaniola, and will likely cause major problems with flooding and landslides there. But that's not all.
Over the next several days the storm is expected to start moving to the north...but the forecast track is uncertain. So residents of The Sunshine State - Florida - may have to watch out for a late-season tropical strike. Even so, this storm probably won't get all that strong. Right now the winds are at 60 miles per hour, and as Noel moves into the Atlantic its winds are forecast to stay below hurricane criteria - 74 miles per hour.
A Satelllite Image of Tropical Storm Noel on Sunday evening,
October 28
It's kind of interesting - out in my neighborhood temperatures have been flirting with the freezing mark over the past several mornings. Meanwhile, a summer-like tropical storm is brewing in the Caribbean. Really a tale of two different worlds.
Hope you had a nice weekend!
Joe
October has been a wet and chilly month! In fact, the average temperature so far this month has been more than a degree below average. And in the rain department, chances are you already know what I'm going to say - we're above average! In fact, Portland Int'l is more than an inch above average for the month.
So what happened today and yesterday? An area of high pressure has been building into the Northwest. This system is reminiscent of a summer high - it is strong, and it is blocking any kind of Pacific storms. And with the sunshine it's been providing, our temperatures have warmed up! In fact, today is the first time temperatures broke 70 this month!
KGW's Rose City Skycam Today at 4:30pm
Don't put away the umbrellas just quite yet, though. A front will push through tomorrow, and with it, some rain. And although some sun will return by week's end, the 70s will not. Instead, highs will hover near 60. So enjoy today's warmth while it lasts!
And one more note...what about the big football game this weekend down in Eugene? Looks pretty nice! Expect a mostly sunny sky, and highs in the lower 60s. Go Ducks!
Joe
For the first time this winter season, chains were required for motorists driving through the Cascades yesterday. The snow was falling heavily, and some of the passes saw more than a foot of fresh snow. So - are you ready?
A shot from Santiam Pass on Sunday afternoon, showing
improving road conditions
Chains will be required more and more frequently as fall and winter storms continue to pound the region. And it's more than just a law - it really is about your safety. Having those chains can get you out of a jam when you really need them, especially if you encounter snow and ice covered roads when you weren't expecting it. There are other options, though. If you'd rather go with studded tires, that'll be open to you soon - studded tires are permitted in Oregon beginning on November 1st.
A great website for checking conditions up in the passes is hosted by the Oregon Department of Transportation. If you click here you'll be redirected to their page, where you can click on traffic cameras all across the region, including one at Government Camp on Highway 26.
Also, for more information on Oregon's chain law, check out this webpage.
Wishing you safe driving this winter,
Joe
Looks like the remnants of tropical storm Lingling are going to reach the Pacific Northwest. This Lingling, is no cute and fuzzy Panda Bear! Later tonight (Wednesday) winds will begin to pick up on the Oregon Coast and increase through Thursday morning. A High Wind Warning will be in effect from Thursday morning through the afternoon.
Even though the storm will be more than 250 miles off the coast it will still pack a wallop. I think the highest winds will occur in the mid to late morning hours on the coast. Peak winds in Portland and the Willamette Valley will be late morning and early afternoon.
Locally the strong south winds may cause some problems with branches coming down on powerlines. Leaves blowing off trees could clog storm drains and cause some minor flooding issues. On the coast winds gusts could cause some damage to structures and cause flying debris problems.
The south winds will also bring in warmer air. Temperatures will reach the lower 60s. Snow levels in the mountains will climb to 7,000ft. After the wind portion of the storm moves through rainy conditions will persist through Friday. Anywhere from .60 to.80" of rain can be expected locally.
Dave
Dave blogged yesterday about the approaching wind storm, and I just wanted to give you a brief update...
Nearly all of what Dave mentioned yesterday still holds true today. Some heavy rain looks likely for Thursday as a coastal low really intensifies offshore, and the wind is going to be another issue altogether. Winds along the coast may gust to 75 miles per hour tomorrow, and in Portland, winds could gust to 45 miles per hour. Just to give you some perspective - winds up at 75 miles per hour are what a category one hurricane would bring. So it's going to be intense if this storm does indeed materialize for your Thursday.
Needless to say, not a bad idea to get light, loose objects and bring them indoors before the storm arrives. And if you can, trimming up old tree limbs is probably not a bad idea, either. It may help you keep your power on as this storm roars through the region.
I'll have an update for you on the noon newscast today. And, of course, Dave will be here tonight will all the latest.
Joe M.
Tuesday night and Wednesday are the calm before the storm. Last night ( Monday) I was hedging my bets about a wind and rain event for the the Oregon and Washington Coast. Today looks like things are lining up for a pretty good wind storm on the coast. The storm is part of old tropical depression Ling-Ling and is still over 1000 miles away from making landfall in the Pacific Northwest.
Thursday, morning the storm is pulling up near the mouth of the Columbia River. Through the morning the storm will work its way north coming ashore near the Aberdeen, Washington. It's forecasted to be around 977mb that's about 28.85 inches hg. when it makes landfall. We'll see peak winds on the north and central Oregon Coast at or above freeway speeds.
Inland winds will be much less, the Willamette Valley could see speeds approaching 45mph. That's strong enough to bring some branches down onto powerlines and moves trash cans down neighborhood streets. There's been some talk about 50 to 60 mph winds near the gorge. Right now computer models aren't supporting that. The MM5 GFS model from U of W are suggesting surface winds about 35mph with some higher gusts possible. That may change as the storm track becomes more refined.
Either way this looks like the first good wind event of the season. As the storm gets closer and computer models refine it's track and strength I'll keep up you updated.
Regards
Dave
We've a rainy and cool week ahead. A string of storms are forming and poised to start arriving Tuesday. At least 3 different systems will be moving over the Pacific Northwest through the week. Locally rainfall will total close to an inch by the end of the work week.
These storms are also cool. Snow levels in the Cascades of Oregon and Washington will drop. Wednesday night and Thursday morning may see snow down to 3500ft. Up to a foot is possible. Snow levels will climb back above pass level by the weekend but wet weather will stay with us.
Bottom line, find your sou'wester and umbrella. I think you're going to need it this week.
Dave
After 13 straight days with at least a trace of rain, it looks like a dry spell is moving over the Pacific Northwest! October is only 10 days old but we've seen 1.06" of rain. Almost a half an inch above normal for the month.
After today the storm track will take aim at California, allowing Oregon and Washington to dry out - at least temporarally. Rain showers will gradually taper off and should end by tonight. Higher pressure with drier air will build across the region.
The dry weather won't be a one day wonder. Skies will stay dry through the weekend. Afternoon sun breaks will let high temperatures will climb into the middle 60s.
If you have to finish up your fall yard chores like Larry, the Cable Guy says "Git Er Done." Rain returns by early next week.
Dave
Today is a good reason why meteorologists never put all there faith in computer models. Two days ago most of our computer models were showing a very powerful - potentually dangerous storm developing. The storm was forecasted to track up the Oregon Coast bringing high winds and heavy rains. Locally wind gusts were on track to reach 45 to 50 mph. BUSTED!
Even 24 hours ago the models were still showing a strong storm developing but showing signs of tracking a little further off shore. Satellite images showed the system stretching out, weakening and not making much of push towards the coast.
The reality of this system is it doesn't have the bang orginally advertised by the computer models ... It's more of a fizzle, high wind watches for the north coast have been dropped. Wind gusts to 60 mph now look like more like 40 mph. Locally instead of 45mph, 25 mph is more likely.
Rain will fall but amounts will total less than a half of an inch for the next 36 hours. Sorry skiers, the snow we had last week has melted. For the near future snow levels will stay above 7000ft. That's well above mosts ski lifts in the state.
Dave
Well not yet anyway but the early snowfall at Timberline and Mt Hood Meadows sure has me thinking about ski season.
Snow showers will taper off and most if not all the lower elevation snow like that at Government Camp will melt by the weekend. Up on the higher slopes of the Cascades the snowfall of the past couple of days will act as a good base to build from.
Snow levels and freezing levels will rise over the next 4 or 5 days. I don't expect much precipitation liquid or frozen until late in the weekend. Snow totals are still a long way off from what ski resorts need to open with.
We will see more precipitation early next week. Computer models are pointing to the arrival for a strong storm Tuesday. Locally we could see some heavy rains and strong winds. If the system does arrive as forecasted it would bring rather warm air to the region with snow levels climbing to around 8000ft.
Dave
Dave and I both blogged about this yesterday - the fact that anywhere from 6 to 12 inches of fresh snow could fall on the Cascades by the end of today. And indeed, that snow is falling and adding up quickly!
So far up at Timberline, 9 inches of fresh snow has been recorded since yesterday morning. And with another twelve hours of snowfall expected, several more inches are possible. All told, this disturbance will probably bring a foot of new snow to Timberline and the Cascades.
And with temperatures at or below freezing in the passes, it's getting a bit slick. So much so that the Oregon DOT is advising you to grab your chains before heading into the Cascades today.
Morning Pass Temperatures at 6am, Thursday, October 4
For a look at some live pass cameras, click here.
If you're grumbling a bit and saying 'it's too early for this,' don't worry. By this weekend snow levels will rise, and you can leave those chains at home! In fact, we could even see some dry weather by late tomorrow and into Saturday.
Joe M.
Doing my best Rod Serling, imitation... " Imagine if you will. It's early January 2008 Portland and the Willamette Valley is blanketed in snow. Television stations are going with wall to wall 24/7 coverage of " The White Wall 2008."
No - it's not the Twilight Zone, but it's close. If this same weather pattern occurs a couple of months from now, it would bring snow onto the valley floor. Not just a skiff or a trace but several inches. For the first time this season snow advisories are posted for both the Oregon & Washington Cascades.
The snow level will hover around 3500ft through Late Thursday. At that elevation all of the Cascade mountain passes will get snow. The highest peaks in the coast range will even get a dusting. In Oregons mountains up to a half foot is possible. Washington state will get up to 10".
The Jet Stream is dragging cold air all the way down from the Aleutian Islands and has pushed into Northern California. Left over moisture from yesterday's storm gives what local meteorologists call "a short over water trajectory." In english - it means showers have a short distance to travel over the water before reaching land. The shorter the distance over water the less chance of warming. The perfect set up for valley snow in January or February.
Thankfully it is only October and were not in the Twilight Zone of wall to wall coverage. Not yet anyway... But Imagine If...
The rainy season seems to have arrived late last week, and that season is bringing more than just rain - it's also bringing snow to the Cascades!
The snow level was as high as 8,000 feet yesterday, but a cold front pushed through, and snow levels are quickly dropping. In fact, by later today those snow levels will be as low as 3,500 feet. And tomorrow they'll dip to 3,000 feet! So the snow will be adding up.
On the ski slopes up to a foot...and maybe even more...of fresh snow is expected by the time this system wraps up Thursday. You can see the detailed breakdown of the snow totals below.
And that's not all. With snow levels as low as 3,000 feet by tomorrow, the Cascade passes will be seeing some snowy accumulations, too. There certainly won't be a foot of snow in the passes, but still, driving could be a bit tricky over the next few days up in the Cascades.
Santiam Pass ODOT Camera, Morning of October 3
Joe M.
Freshies... It's a skiers and snow boarders term for fresh snow mountain snowfall. More "Freshies" are coming to the Cascade mountains later this week. First a bit of review this time last week skies were clear the temperatures in the 70's. In the last 4 days of the month we went from a rain deficit to surplus. September 2007 was the wettest September since 1996.
Tuesday another in a series of early fall weather systems crashes ashore. The results will be more rain, a lot more rain maybe .75" in the next 36 hours. Behind the front much cooler air will arrive. Snow levels by Wednesday could drop as low as 3500ft. Lots of left over moisture means lots of snow possible "FRESHIES".
Extend outlook shows the cooler and showery pattern continues into the weekend. So what snows falls in the mountians will stay, at least for a few days. Not enough snow to ski on, but enough " pow-pow" (another skiers term for snow) to wet the appetite of most skiers and boarders.
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