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| September 2007 »
The Aurigid meteor storm is nearly upon us! And the weather may cooperate.
More than 2,000 years ago the comet Kiess passed by the sun, and left behind a debris trail in its wake. That debris has been drifting toward the Earth ever since, and will pass into Earth's orbit around 4:00am this Saturday morning, September 1st.
So you can expect to start seeing shooting stars around 4am - or can you? Scientists have such limited experience with this specific type of debris field that they're not sure if the meteor storm will definitely materialize. So there could be nothing - or it could be incredible. We all just have to wait and see.
And so if it does happen...crossing my fingers here...it will start around 4am, and last until around 5am. The guess is that there will be around 100 shooting stars in that hour. We'll have some clouds pushing through, but it should be clear enough so that you'll be able to catch a glimpse of some of these meteors. And if you don't try to see it tonight, you won't have a chance to do it again. This will be the only time in our lives that Comet Kiess will provide us with a meteor storm.
I'm confident enough in my forecast of a semi-clear sky that I'll be waking up to watch these shooting stars - here's hoping I'll get the forecast right. =)
To read more about this meteor storm, you can check out this NASA webpage.
This is it the last big weekend of the summer of 2007, Labor Day Weekend. Where has the summer gone? It seems more like June. The weather certainly is more like June than late August.
My mantra for the holiday weekend is two out of three isn't bad! In other words expect to be under partly cloudy skies Saturday & Sunday, on Monday a weak weather system will brush us. The system will remain mainly to the north... still I can't rule out the chance of a shower Labor Day.
If you're headed towards the Oregon Coast you may not get two out of three. The chance of seeing showers may start as early as Sunday. The good news for you beach lovers is the showers will mainly be north of Lincoln City.
Eastside of the Cascades, after today the forecast improves. Thunderstorms, with the risk of gusty winds and lightning strikes will move out tonight. Higher pressure with drier air and warmer temperatures will move in. If you want dry and warm weather all three days... well, let me parapharse Hoarse Greeley, who said... head east young man head east. Ok... Ol' Hoarse, really told everybody to go west, but he wasn't talking about the weather for Labor Day Weekend!
Bottom line is where ever you go this holiday weekend, have a good time, and stay safe.
Dave
This could be a rough weekend for fire fighters. So far this summer Oregon, has had a relatively quiet forest fire season... That may change in the next 24 hours.
Record high and near record high temperatures popped up Wednesday. Portland came within 1 degree of tying a record that's stood for over 60 years.
A weak push of marine air will knock temperatures down around 6 to 8 degrees today. Highs in the Willamette Valley will reach the upper 80s. East of the Cascades the marine push will bring something else... Thunderstorms. Early this morning Doppler 8000 was picking up boomers near Maupin,The Dalles and Pendleton.
Most of Central and Eastern Oregon is under a Red Flag Warning because of the high fire danger. Lots of people are getting out of town early today for the Labor Day weekend. If you going east of the Cascades, becareful!! Fire danger will remain high through the weekend. I doubt we'll see any significant rain east of the mountains anytime soon.
Dave
One more blast of sunny and hot weather before kids start heading back to school next week. Highs today will reach the lower 90s for only the 4th time this month! It's NOT the year without a summer, but you could call it a year without much of a summer.
1987 still stands with the most days for having temperatures 90 or hotter. More recently 2006 and 2002 came close with 22 days. As we head towards September with longer nights and shorter days.. the chance of seeing more hot weather drops rapidly, meaning 2007 will be one of our cooler summers in over 5 years!
On another note look what I found under the rose bushes in my front yard!
4 kittens! I heard them meow Monday evening. We've had a stray cat hanging around for a couple of months. My wife, Sandy, who's a soft touch for any small animal started feeding the stray. Sandy, even named her Vamp the Tramp. We knew Vamp had her kittens several weeks ago but she kept them well hidden.
Sandy, Karen & I kept feeding The Vamp with the goal of getting her and her brood down to the Oregon Humane Society. Over the weekend I'm sorry to say The Vamp disappeared with out a trace... Then Monday evening from under a rose bush in the front yard I heard their cries. They're quite young, and still need to be hand fed. It's been sometime since I've had to do midnight feedings... Let's see 15 years to be exact. Neighbors and friends have been helping care for the kittens. The search for Vamp the Tramp goes on, so far without any luck.
I've contacted the Oregon Humane Society, and the plan is to put the kittens up for adoption. They will appear on our Wednesday Pet Of The Week segment when they are big enough, in about another 4 or 5 weeks. Stay tuned!
If you stay up late or get up really early Tuesday morning you're in for a treat. A rare lunar eclipse will occur. The good news is the best viewing will be right here in the Pacific Northwest.
A lunar eclipse happens when the Earth passes between the Sun and Moon. The Earth casts a shadow eclipsing our view of the moon. The eclipse begins at 2:52 AM Tuesday. The moon becomes completely eclipsed at 3:37 AM. Even during the period of total eclipse the moon won't be invisible. Some light will reach around the corners of the earth. The light will cause a reddish orange glow along the edge of the moon.
If you're wondering about weather conditions, don't be.. skies will be fair tonight. If you miss tonight's eclipse your next chance to see one won't come again until 2008 on February 21st. Best viewing then will be in Europe and Asia.
A quick note. Brenda, was making fun of me wearing tennis shoes with my coat and tie. My feet are tired!! I told her I rode the Portland Century bicycle ride on Sunday. 1500 cyclists took part in what is becoming one of the best rides of the summer--- challenging hills, Wildcat Mountain near Estacada & the Gordon Creek drainage on the Sandy River. Support was excellent. Hmmmm, Hotlips Pizza 70 miles into the ride at Blue Lake Park. That hit the spot!
Brenda, asked how far I rode I told here 104 miles, well I was at least close. Here's a picture of my cycling computer after the ride ( yes, bicycles have computers these days) 103.69 miles. I rounded up to 104 miles.
Dave
As we quickly approach the two-year anniversary of Hurricane Katrina making landfall and devastating the city of New Orleans, it seems a good time to reflect on what happened...and what's being done to be sure it never happens again.
New Orleans Flooding following Katrina
You probably know the basics already...monster Hurricane Katrina made landfall in New Orleans on August 29, 2005. The city's levee system failed, and severe flooding brought the city to its knees. What you probably don't know is that some of the major assumptions most people are going off of are wrong. For example, Hurricane Katrina was a monster storm...when it was in the middle of the Gulf of Mexico. By the time it made landfall along the Louisiana coast, its winds were down to around 125mph...and since the storm actually made landfall to the east of New Orleans, the winds in the city peaked at just 100mph. Nothing to sneeze at, but certainly not nearly as bad as it could have been.
So, if Katrina was just a typical hurricane by the time it made landfall - and not the monster that everyone has been led to believe - why did the city get innundated with flooding? What happened?
Two big things - levees and wetlands. The levee system was terribly inadequate for the risks the city faced. New Orleans is very close the Gulf Coast, and faces the constant threat of water and flooding because of the Gulf and the hurricane risk. So the levees were built to prevent flooding in the city. But these levees were designed to withstand a category three hurricane - even though New Orleans could easily be threatened by a category four or five storm. (In reality, the levees couldn't even handle the winds of Katrina - barely a category two storm in New Orleans.) Then there's the problem of the vanishing wetlands. For years the Mississippi River carried tons of sediments (mud, silt, etc.) downstream and then dumped it in the marshy wetlands of coastal Louisiana as the river emptied into the Gulf. That's how the wetlands, and even the land that New Orleans is on, got built up over time. But once we started aggressively managing the Mississippi, trying to prevent its natural floods, that land-building process got interrupted. The river now carries much less sediment than it used to, and so there's less mud and silt being dumped by the river in coastal Lousiana. So the marshes...and the city of New Orleans...are sinking...and disappearing. In fact, 30% of Lousiana's wetlands have vanished, reclaimed by the Gulf of Mexico. This is so important because wetlands are a natural barrier to storm surge and a hurricane's large waves. With less wetlands, there is less protection from a hurricane's watery wrath. This combination...inadequate levees combining with the disapperance of nature's natural hurricane barrier...made New Orleans a sitting duck back in 2005...just sitting there, waiting for Katrina.
Two years later the Army Corps of Engineers is trying to improve New Orleans flailing levee system. They're working on a plan that will strengthen the levees...but even the 'new' levees are still going to be so inadequate, they won't be able to withstand the force of another Katrina. Then there's the managing of the Mississippi issue. This is such a complex problem that it's anyone's guess as far as whether or not it's being addressed. But one thing is certain. Until that issue is resolved...until the Mississippi is allowed to flow more naturally, and can start rebuilding coastal Lousiana again...New Orleans and the surrounding wetlands will continue to sink into the Gulf of Mexico.
Inadequate levees...vanishing wetlands and a sinking New Orleans...seems like not much has changed over the last two years. Unfortunately, hurricanes are not going to wait for New Orleans to get it right. Katrina was just the warmup...
Hurricane Katrina before Landfall
That's right Sky 8 spotted them this morning riding up and down the OHSU tram. I've heard they weren't even paying the 4 dollar price of admission. Shocking just shocking! Ok I made this all up. I just wanted to generate my own internet hoax. I figured it would dove tail with the other Mars rumor that it will be as big as the moon Monday. I think I've answered at least half a dozen calls and have had at least that many emails asking why I'm not talking about Mars closest approach in 60,000 years. Simple it's not going to happen! The rumor says that Monday August 27th Mars will be the brightest star in the sky. It will pass with in 35 million miles of earth. With a simple 75 telescope it will look as close as the moon.
Mars did make a close approach back in 2003, but this year won't get any closer than 55 million miles from earth and WILL NOT be as bright as the moon. For some reason this rumor keeps floating around and pops up about this time every year. What's even more interesting this year is that there's a lunar eclipse Monday! Go figure. Marilyn Monroe, still alive and now married to Elvis. D.B Cooper lives in a cabin near Mt. Adams, the Lockness Monster Or Matt Zaffino, made a hole in one playing golf... Like other urban rumors the Mars rumor just won't go way...Ok I'll give you D.B. Cooper.
Cue music... Roll video tape open, announcer cue... This is a Northwest News Channel 8 BREAKING NEWS! Less than 3 weeks left in most schools summer vacation. Less than 3 weeks left until the start of parents vacation! Yippee! Daughter Karen, and here friends, the kids I always see in the kitchen and in our refrigerator when I get home, are in a funk. ( don't those kids have there own refrigerators to eat from?) School starts in a few weeks and they're not happy. At the same time I've noticed mood swing among parents on our street. A noticable upbeat mood. Hmmm could to two be linked? I think so.
True the last full month of summer vacation has not been great. Monday's temperatures were only in the 60's and rain was plentiful. .13" of an inch at PDX, .32" in Troutdale & Scappoose had a frog choking .58". The rainfall amounts here last 24 are a drop in the bucket compared to what Hurricane Dean is dumping on Mexico.
Hurricane Dean has already dumped up to 10" of rain today over the Yucatan Peninnsula. Winds were 150+ mph when it came ashore near Costa Maya. Dean will gather regain strength when it moves over warm gulf waters tonight. Wednesday morning is will hit Mexico again near Tuxpan, likely a category 2 hurricane.
The United States mainland dodged Dean but the storm season is still young. Hurricane season doesn't offically end until December 1st.
Dave
While we've seen a decent amount of sunshine this August, it still hasn't been quite as clear as you'd expect. And tomorrow - forget about seeing any sunshine! Instead, a fall-like storm is going to say hello to the Pacific Northwest! It's setting us up for some pretty interesting weather.
Our average high this time of year is 80. Our average daily rainfall this time of year...a few hundreths of an inch. Basically - usually it's warm and sunny! Of course, everyone knows this, but the scientist in me just had to look at the numbers. =) Tomorrow is going to be going against the grain, and the averages. Our high won't get out of the 60s. We could see more than half an inch of rain. Pretty wild stuff.
All that rain is a good thing...it has actually been dry for July and August, even by 'Oregon in summer ' standards. So we'll work on that rainfall deficit tomorrow.
And if that still doesn't make you feel better about a wet Sunday, I've got something else up my sleeve! =) Looks like the week ahead will transition to a calmer pattern, and sunshine...and highs in the 80s...could be back by Tuesday and Wednesday. Enjoy!
Ah yes here we are smack dab the middle of the dog days of summer. What are the dog says of summer you ask? Typically it's the hottest and most humid portion of the summer months. It also means a period of calm or stagnant weather conditions. Generally the dog days of summer run from the middle July to Early September.
The term " Dog Days" comes from the Romans, they called this time of year caniculares dies or days of the dogs. Sirius is the dog star ( now you also know why Sirius satellite radio has a dog on its logo) it's the brightest start in the sky next to the Sun.
So enjoy the calm and quiet of the dog days, we're just a few months away the roar of the lion of winter...
Dave
Climate scientists unveiled the results of some of their latest climate-change research recently. And, according to the results, it's going to be a warm decade.
In the previous 100 years, global temperatures have increased by an average of one degree. The new research says that in the coming 10 years, global temperatures will increase by an average of another half a degree. That's significant - it took 100 years for the Earth to warm by one degree...now it's going to take only 10 more years to warm up another half of a degree?
Of course, this information is coming from a computer model...and its predictions may be wrong. But if what we've seen over the past several years is any indication, there's a good chance this computer model is right on. The period from 1996 to 2006 had some of the warmest weather ever recorded. 1998 was the warmest year on record...and 2005 came close to beating that record year.
Looking at the big picture, it's true that the global temperature may only have gone up by one degree...and it may go up by another half a degree. Is it really that big of a deal? Believe it or not, it is...each degree of warming can have big impacts on our environment. And those impacts are being felt across the globe, and right here in the Northwest. Harsher, more destructive wildfire seasons...more intense winter flooding...and an eroding Oregon coastline...are just some of the things that can be expected if climate change and global warming continue unabated.
Photo Courtesy: Creative Commons
This blog is based off an article I read in USA Today. Feel free to read the article in its entirety by clicking here.
It's the International Space Station and Space Shuttle. Tonight and the next few nights the shuttle and space station will pass over Portland and other cities in the northwest. Wednesday, we'll get the chance to see the pair not once but twice!
Tonight will be the best night for view because of the fair skies. Cloudy and cooler weather will be returning by Thursday. In case we get a break in the weather or if your on the eastside of the Cascades, I've included a link to NASA on times and locations for flybys.
Dave
http://www.jsc.nasa.gov/sightings/index.html
The Graphic above pretty much explains this blog entry. It's been a wacky August! Our average high temperature should be 80, we've average 76 so far this month. High temperatures have had almost a 40 degree swing. Unusual for what is supposed to be the warmest month of the year.
The cooler temperatures are confined to areas west of the Cascades. Eastside continues to sizzle. The tinder dry conditions are causing explosive fire conditions. In parts of Idaho and Washington, no fires what so ever are allowed, including cooking with charcoal briquets. The smoke from fires burning in Washington, Idaho & Montana makes for incredible sunsets.
I took these pictures last weekend in Eastern Washington, while driving home from vacation. At last report well over a million acres of forest and grass land had burned so far this summer in the Pacific Northwest.
Hurricane Flossie is a powerful hurricane in the Pacific, with winds of 135mph tonight. That makes this storm a powerful, category-four hurricane. A monster like this has the potential to cause tremendous damage if it were to make landfall. And it's moving closer and closer to Hawaii.
The forecast track has it brushing by the Big Island Tuesday into Wednesday as a category one or category two hurricane. So it should weaken significantly before it impacts Hawaii. Still, what can they expect? On that track, and at that strength, Hawaii would receive some heavy rain and strong winds - approaching 50 or 60 miles per hour.
That, of course, is if the forecast doesn't change. Hurricane Flossie may be stronger than expected when it passes by Hawaii...or it could go right into the island chain. That's why this storm is being watched so closely.
Along the West Coast we don't typically worry about hurricanes because our ocean water is so cold. A hurricane needs water of at least 80 degrees to form and survive...and we just don't have that here. Of course, the water by Hawaii is much warmer, and that warm water allows hurricanes to occassionally threaten the island chain.
For updates on Hurricane Flossie's progress, check out the Central Pacific Hurricane Center.
Photo courtesy Ben Cooper, Spaceflight Now
This morning on a small piece of land off of Florida's east coast, the space shuttle is being fueled for a 3:36pm PDT launch slated for later today. But this time of year in Florida, thunderstorms develop nearly every afternoon. And NASA's weather criteria...those weather conditions that need to be met in order to launch...are lengthy, to say the least. So those summer storms frequently ground summer shuttle missions.
But today looks different. The atmosphere is incredibly moist...so storms could develop. But they probably won't. A large upper-level high is in place across the southeastern US. That means, basically, there is a large area of sinking air. For a storm to develop, the air needs to be rising. So that upper-level high, and its sinking air, is the exact opposite of what a developing thunderstorm needs to survive. Storms will struggle to develop as a result on this August afternoon.
And it's not just that. Even if a few storms do develop over the peninsula of Florida, the steering flow is east to west. So those winds will tend to push any thunderstorms away from the space center. You can see this setup in the image below.
Bottom line - the shuttle launch should not be hampered by the weather today. Latest numbers from NASA say an 80% chance of good weather for the launch.
If you'd like to actually track what's happening out at Cape Canaveral, check out this website. It's updated frequently, and says what is happening...in nearly real-time...over in Florida with this shuttle mission. Always an amazing thing, in my opinion...putting people in space...just amazing.
Summertime is here. A time in the Northwest when the sun shines warmly...and the temperatures climb to that oh-so-pleasant range of right around 80 degrees every afternoon. At least, that's what the averages say happen during the summer here. And that's exactly what the week ahead will bring.
When a large ridge of high pressure builds into the Northwest, that's when temperatures soar into the 90s and 100s. But that won't be happening anytime soon. Instead, the upper-level flow will remain flat...basically straight west to east...or even somewhat 'troughy'...when the upper-level flow dips down into the Northwest. This pattern...dominating through the week ahead...will bring marine air to the region.
What does that marine air mean? Well...basically morning clouds...afternoon sunshine...and high temperatures near 80. And that forecast isn't for just one day this week...it's for every day now through next weekend! So we'll see plenty of comfortable sunshine. And you may love it. But as a weather guy...I'm getting a bit bored, I hate to say. Don't get me wrong...I enjoy the sunshine just as much as the next guy. But forecasting a big winter storm...that's what I'm looking forward to. =)
I'm sure by the middle of next January...I may be regretting that last comment. =)
So this blog will be a bit different for me...just my random thoughts on the world of clothing... Sounds bizarre, but hang in with me here... =)
So I went out to the mall to grab some summer polos Monday night. And when I got there, searching for some summer styles for my lagging wardrobe, the pleasant customer service person directed me to the clearance rack. On the plus side, I did get some great summer polos at a great price. =) But at the same time, I always scratch my head this time of year...
Does anyone (other than a retail economist) get this...the bringing in of the fall clothes while it is still the middle of summer? I don't know about you, but with highs in the 90s today, the last thing I'm thinking about is buying a nice leather jackets and some new jeans. Of course, back-to-school time is approaching...but it still seems a bit early to be clearancing the summer clothing. Maybe I'm just not ready to think about fall and rain just quite yet...trying to hang onto summer... =)
That's about it for this blog. I tried to warn you. =)
In all seriousness, though, it will be pretty warm today. Forecast high of 92 in Portland...just one degree shy of a record high. Hope you're all enjoying that summer sunshine...oh so nice here in the Northwest.
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