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| August 2007 »
I've been hearing some complaints about the "pathetic" summer we're having. Imgaine that, a weatherman hearing complaints! I thought to myself -"Pathetic !Pathetic?" Has summer really been that bad? The comments sent me digging into the climate records for Portland and Vancouver. Here's what I found out, about our summer so far. It's actually a pretty typical summer. About the only thing missing has been an extended period of extremely hot temperatures.
Since May we've only seen 4 days with high temperatures over 90 degrees. We average 11 per year. In 2006 we had 13 days of 90 plus. Two of the last three months have seen daytime highs running above average. June was just slightly cooler than normal. Dry weather continues... May, June & July all averaged below normal rainfall. As a matter of fact the last 7 months have seen below normal precipitation.
Another morning of low marine clouds in Portland and for most of the rest of Western Oregon. The onshore flow off the coast is a little stronger than Wednesday. We'll see sunny skies again today but it will likely be late morning before skys clear.
The visible satellite picture this morning is a great example of how the Cascade Mountains act like a weather wall. This mornings marine clouds have pushed right up to the base of Cascades. However, the cloud layer is not dense enough nor does it have enough "oomph" to push over into into Central Oregon. This is also a good example of why we're a two climate state. Westside we have what climatologists call a temperate or modified marine climate. East of the Cascades it's a dry continental climate.
Dave
Another perfect July day. Lots of sunshine and warm temperatures. But wait. What about those clouds that fill the morning sky, are we going to see rain fromthem? The simple answer is no.
The past couple of days we've been seeing winds blowing from the northwest,slso known as a Marine Push.The on shore flow brings cooler and moist "Marine Air "in from the coast. In the morning hours that causes a thin layer of clouds to form. The clouds burn off as the temperature get warmer. Temperatures will reach the upper 80's today and Thursday.
This weekend a some what stronger more organized system will push toward the coast. It will bring more clouds but little chance of precipitation.
Regards
Dave
Take a look at the pictures below. I took them Saturday morning at the Rosalia airport. Rosalia is a small town in Eastern Washington about 30 miles south of Spokane.
Look closely at this old Cessna 150, the plane has been sitting abandoned at the town's tiny airport. Judging from appearances I'd say the plane has been in that spot at least a couple of years. When I first pulled up to the gas pumps I saw the little yellow trainer sitting on the ramp with flat tires and a canopy cover blowing in the breeze and thought, "What a shame." But wait, looking closer found the tires weren't just flat, they had sunk into the asphalt!
I know it gets hot in the summer out in Washington's Paloose region, but hot enough to melt asphalt? 100 to 110 degree temperatures aren't that uncommon this time of year. But it needs to be lot hotter to soften asphalt. That's around 250 degrees-- remember water boils at 212 degrees. What you're looking at is a good example of how different surfaces and colors absorb heat. A mini version of the urban heat island. Literally, the Rosalia Airport is an island of pavement surrounded by miles and miles of wheat and corn fields. The black ashpalt absorbs more energy from the sun than the surrounding fields which are lighter colored. Air temperatures reach 100 but the pavement could get 50 to 75 degrees hotter. The weight of the little Cessna-- about 900 pounds-- and the softening of the pavement have caused the two to melt together. The little yellow bird has accidentally become a permanent fixture at this Eastern Washington airport.
The large storm system that plagued our region with cloud cover throughout the weekend did more than just block out the sunshine. It also pushed tropical moisture into the Pacific Northwest.
Out ahead of this storm system our wind flow is coming in out of the south and southwest. So moist air is streaming in. That's actually pretty typical with these large storms. But what is so unusual about this storm is its strength, and also the time of year. That combination is allowing this system to pump in deep moisture from hundreds, if not thousands, of miles away.
So tonight in the Pacific Northwest it's not feeling like the Pacific Northwest. It's feeling more like...New Orleans? That's right. Even though New Orleans sits right on the Gulf of Mexico, the atmosphere is more moist here in Portland than in New Orleans tonight! You can see a nice shot of the typically steamy New Orleans below. I know personally, having lived in Florida for several years, it's a pretty amazing thing to see this tropical moisture pushing so far north.
And another thing to think about...the more moist the atmosphere, the warmer it tends to stay overnight. A great example is last night. With all that moisture in place, Portland's overnight low dropped to just 68 degrees...ten degrees above average. And it probably won't be much cooler tonight. Just another 'perk' to this humidity. =)
If you're looking for some relief from the stickiness, you're in luck. As this big weekend storm starts pulling away tomorrow our wind flow will switch to more of a westerly and northwesterly direction...and that will push in drier air from the north!
I just finished digging through the climate records for July. If you think this has been a wet month, your're right! As of Friday morning Portland, has had .50" of rain so far this month. This is one of the wettest July's in years! Digging through the weather archives, ok I actually typed and moused my way through them. I found you have to go all the back to the summer of 2001 to find a wetter July.
There still are 11 more days in the month and we're looking at a fairly wet weekend. I think between now and Sunday we'll easily reach and exceed our monthly average of .72". If you're worried about summer being over don't be. We're still on track to return to fair and warmer early next week.
Dave
Ah... A bit calmer weather on the horizon today. Were between systems, just a risk of a few showers wth partly to mostly cloudy skies. All the rain and thundershowers made Wednesday feel more like April or May,not the middle of July. It was the wettest day the Rose City has seen since early June.
Other communities in saw even more rain the Portland.
Troutdale .41"
Astoria .31"
Aurora .37"
Hood River .40"
The break from the damp weather is shortlived. Tonight the remains of Tyhoon Man-Yi
is headed for the Pacific Northwest. I'm forecasting another fairly wet day Friday. We could see another .50" of rain, putting us well above normal for the month. When does summer return? Monday. Highs will bounce back into the 80s early next week.
Dave
I've been hearing a lot of complaints both in and out of the newsroom about the sudden change in the weather. Being the spin miester that I'am here's my take on the July rain. It's saving you time and money. How? Well you saving time cause ma' nature is now doing your lawn and garden watering. Saving you money because you're not running your A.C.
Not bad huh? I could go into politics. Only problem I'm not sure who has lower approval ratings, politicians or weathermen? DON'T ANSWER THAT! ;-)
With an area of low pressure double parked off the coast I think we'll stay in this cooler and wet pattern at least a couple more days. Yesterday I blogged about one of the computer models developing another weather system off the coast. Today a couple more models have followed. Looks like Friday is going to be a fairly soggy day.
Temperatures will remain cool for this time of year
We should be looking at near 80 for a daytim high. Once again today we will struggle to reach 70 degrees. The good news is by Saturday the pattern will improve and by early next week summer will be back in full swing!
Dave
Nothing like a little rain after a couple of weeks of dry and warm weather to mess up a morning commute! The rain started falling this morning around 3:30. Driving into work at 4:00 this morning I came across police and fire crews were responding to a crash on I-84 and I-5. I squeezed past and made it into work, albeit a few minutes late. Many others weren't as lucky. Traffic guys Jim Culp and Michael Convery were swamped with accidents by 6:00. Quote of the day, Jim Culp, "Accidents are happening faster than Sky8 can fly to them, and were pretty fast." The rain, fell on motor oil, grease and dirt that's been collecting on the streets for weeks. The result was a combination almost as slippery as snow or ice in January!
The rain brings a welcome change to the weather westside of the Cascades. Where it's really need is east of the mountains. Fire danger remains high in Central and Eastern Oregon. Notice the radar imagery how the precipitation stops right at the mountains. Very little if any rain can be expected to help fire fighters. The best fire fighters might see will be cooler temperatures and high humidity.
Damp weather will stick around through early Thursday. Most long range models show drier and warmer conditions by the weekend.
Dave
Now that I've your attention I'm talking about a weather streak, not running naked through PGE Park. Our streak of 80 plus degree days is about to end. 14 of the first 15 days in July have had Temperatures 80 degrees or higher in Portland. The hottest 102 on July 10th.
For the first time this month a weather system is organizing off the Oregon Coast and looks to be headed our direction.
Rain will likely start late morning on the coast and move inland by the afternoon. Overall rain amounts will be light less than a .25" or less but precipitation will continue on and off through Wednesday.
I'm forecasting temperatures to stay in the 70s through Saturday. We should pop back up into the 80s by Sunday and stay there much of next week. For allergy sufferers the cooler and damp weather should get a lot of the dust and pollen out of the air. All in all a pleasant change.
Dave
La Nina...spanish for 'the little girl'...appears to be absent so far this year. But what is La Nina? This phenomenon is a cooling of the Pacific Ocean near the equator. It can have widespread impacts on weather conditions across the globe. One of those impacts...it can effect the number of hurricanes in the Atlantic basin.
Typically, 'La Nina' years bring more hurricane activity than non 'La Nina' years. So one could think that this year's hurricane season would be a bit more tranquil...but hurricane experts are still expecting a very active season. The forecast? As many as 17 names storms...up to 10 of those storms becoming hurricanes...and up to five of those hurricanes becoming 'major' hurricanes. Those major storms are the ones to look out for...they have winds of at least 111 miles per hour (if not higher)...and are the most destructive storms.
A great example of this...having no 'La Nina' but still having plenty of tropical systems...is the 2005 Atlantic hurricane season. There were 28 named storms that year...so many that the list of hurricane names...actually ran out. We were using the greek alphabet to name storms. It's the first time in my life I've ever heard a 'Hurricane Beta.' Of course, that year also spawned Hurricane Katrina...the storm that devastated New Orleans. You can see an amazing photo below. At one point, while in the Gulf of Mexico, Katrina had winds of 175 miles per hour.
On a personal level, it's a summer I'll never forget. I was working in Orlando at the time. It was an amazing time to be a meteorologist working in in that 'hurricane zone.'
So far this year in the Atlantic there have only been two named storms. But the season is still young...the average hurricane season doesn't peak until early September...and then slowly calms down from there. The season officially ends November 30.
For you amateur hurricane hunters out there, you can always track tropical activity with the National Hurricane Center based in South Florida. Their website...click here and you'll be taken there. The amount of information on that sight is unreal.
Finally relief from the heat. Yippee! High temperatures with will reach the upper 80s, while that's still above normal it nowhere close to Tueday's 102 degrees. The temperatures maybe cooling but the fire danger stays red hot. A Red Flag warning remains posted from the crest of the Cascades east. A Fire Weather Watch is in effect for most of the Willamette Valley & Coast Range.
The Thunderstorms I have in my forecast for tonight don't contain much rain. I think we'll see a fair amount of lightning and thunder in the Cascade foothills and possibly even in the metro area this evening. The chance of Thunderstorms decreasing on Friday as temperatures continue to cool. Daytime highs early next week will be in the 70s & that's actually about 5 to 6 degrees below average for this time of year.
Regards
Dave
Lots of new record high temperatures set Tuesday. 102 degrees here in Portland broke a 5 year old record of 98 degrees. Tillamook for only the 3rd time in almost 60 years saw 100 degrees.
Cooler temperatures will arrive on the coast today with highs in 60s and lower 70s. The cooler air and cloud cover is filtering into parts of the Willamette Valley through the day. It's still going to be hot inland, combine the heat and the moisture from the clouds and we've got the ingredients to cook up some thunderstorms. ( Hmmm now just ad some Yoshida sauce and... Oh sorry spaced for a minute, that's a different part of my job.)
I'm keeping a chance of thunderstorms in the forecast thru Thursday night. Any moisture coming from the storms will be limited. I think the big problem will be dry lightning strikes. Temperatures will cool gradually, by the weekend highs will be near normal.
Regards
Dave
Wow... you know it's hot when the Coast reaches 100° like Tillamook did on Tuesday. Below is a list of records set Tuesday.
Even more impressive than Tillamook's 100° is the 99° reached farther up the Coast at Hoquiam, WA, where a new all-time record high was set. Hoquiam's 99° on Tuesday beats out the previous all-time record high of 98°, set on Augst 9, 1981.
What's interesting about that heat wave is it's the same one that lifted Portland to its all-time record high of 107°. And not just once, but twice: on August 8 and August 10, 1981. Portland also hit it's all-time record of 107° back on July 30, 1965.
But relief is on the way. In fact it's already reached the central Coast in the form of fog, which created this water-color like smear of a scene in Pacific City Tuesday night.
It'll take another day for the cooler coastal air to work into the Portland area. In the process, be on the lookout for thunderstorms, escpecially Thursday night into Friday morning. And by then, this heat wave will be history.
Matt Zaffino
Chief Meteorologist
Northwest Newschannel 8
Get ready, get set & get ready to sweat! The hottest weather so far this year is on the way. All the triple digit temperatures in California & Nevada last week are moving north this week.
 Temperatures today will be just a few degrees above normal with highs in the middle 80s. Tomorrow will feel like a blast furnace with highs hitting 100 or above on both sides of the Cascades.
With the arrival of the hottest weather since last summer also come several warnings. An excessive heat watch & fire weather watch will go into effect later this afternoon and continue through Tuesday & possibly Wednesday.
Try to stay cool
Dave
I wrote last weekend about the heat that was going to push into the area, and it did push in...just not quite as aggressively as we were thinking. So, if you were dreading the hot stuff...you got lucky! Our hottest temperature was on July 4, at just 90 degrees. But your luck might run out this week.
Another large area of high pressure is expected to develop across the West, and that will allow a thermal trough to develop. These thermal troughs are crucial to seeing hot weather in the valleys and warm weather along the coast, because our winds become easterly...and block cool Pacific air. Without that cool Pacific air moderating our temperatures, those temperatures quickly rise with our bright summer sun.
With this setup expected to dominate our weather by the middle part of this upcoing week, temperatures look to break the triple-digit mark...100 degrees...by Tuesday and Wednesday.
Of course, it goes without saying, but if you have to be outside when temperatures are going to be that warm, make sure you stay hydrated. And if you start feeling 'out of it,' or are very thirsty, just take a break from the heat altogether...at least until you start feeling a bit better. I spoke with an ER doctor at OHSU this week, and he confirmed that heat like that...near 100...can be deadly if you're not careful.
Stay cool!
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