Hi Matt,
there has been a lot of debate as to whether we are really in an El Nino type set up or not. George Taylor says one thing and other meteorologists say another and NOAA seems to change back and forth. What is your best thoughts and what the rest of our winter might bring esp. the chance of arctic air/snow. PDO's, SST's and all those indicators seem to indicate a mild El Nino at best at least as far as my limited skills can tell.
Kindly,
Ron

Hey Ron.. good questions. A majority of climate models and indices not only point to us being in a mild El Nino state right now, but the El Nino conditions will increase, or atleast persist, through the winter. I've yet to see a climate forecast for this winter that argues for increased chances of arctic air and valley snow. So like I said in a previous entry, the deck is stacked against it. That said, Momma Nature has been known to deal us an ace (in this lame metaphor I mean valley snow) when the deck has been stacked before. We had a recent winter... I think it was 2004-05, or maybe 2003-04, where we had a La Nina and we ALL expected a cold wet winter and we got nothing. Point is El Nino/La Nina is only part of the picture.. there are other large-scale phenomena that force climate of which we have little knowledge. And.. we've had some snowy valley winters during weak El Nino's like this. It depends largely on HOW this El Nino develops and changes over the coming weeks and months. And remember, each El Nino is different. So there's hope for you snow lovers... but not a lot.