Does Our Nasty November Precede a Better Winter?
One person's "better" can be another's worst nightmare, but for the sake of discussion let's go with drier, warmer, less stormy than the last two weeks. Then again the Aleutian Islands have been less stormy than the Northwest for the last two weeks, so that's not setting the bar very high, but you get the idea.
Let me start with El Nino. We have one. And during past, but not all, El Nino's, we've seen the fall storm season begin wet and wild only to taper off dramatically after the inital onslaught. There's no indication of any immediate change to dry and warm, but there does seem to be a change in the overall pattern brewing over the next couple weeks. It looks like a cooler and less severe weather regime will take over the Northwest next week. It's a really good pattern for snow in the Cascades as weather systems come out of the Gulf of Alaska with air cold enough to keep the snow level below the passes. After that hangs around for a while, it's quite possible that as the jet stream adjusts to the El Nino-warmed tropical Pacific Ocean and the heat it releases to the atmosphere, that the sub-tropical jetstream, which has been toying with the Northwest, will strengthen and take aim farther south, as in a typical El Nino. This often, but not always, dries out the Northwest.
There are a few other interesting things happening that are worth watching:
Hurricane Sergio is spinning northward off the Mexican Coast toward Baja. It's the strongest eastern Pacific hurricane ever recorded so late in the season. Conversely, Arctic air is building over Alaska, and it's always worth keeping an eye on where that might end up. Both of these events will likely have no direct impact on Northwest weather, but they may be signs that some strange weather patterns are in the air.
And oh yes, how about those winds today in Oregon:
122 mph on Mt Hebo in the Coast Range east of Tillamook
107 mph at Rockaway Beach
53 mph at Portland Airport
42 mph at KGW in downtown Portland
62 mph in Vancouver
71 mph in Seaside
75 mph in Lincoln City
Add to the list.. our friends up in the Emerald City just broke their all-time November rainfall record with 11.63" at SeaTac Airport. And we're only half-way through the month. Stay tuned!
Matt Zaffino
KGW Chief Meteorologist

