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I have a little weather joke I tell to Brenda & Russ when we go into bad or extended weather coverage... Shhhh listen guys! I think I hear the pounding hoofs from the four horsemen of the weather apocalypse... This month I think they really did ride through!
We're now in the last hours of the month of November 2006. What a month! Weather wise we've been all over the board. Like watching a car sliding down I-84 East of Troutdale this morning.
As Officer Joe Friday would say "Just the Facts Ma'am." So here they are... It was the wettest November ever in Portland 11.77" of rain 6.36" above normal, smashing a record that stood for over 60 years. On the coast some places like Astoria saw over 20" of rain. The Rose City had 3 days with an inch or more of precipitation, the heaviest amount 2.53" on the 6th. On the 6th we also saw our warmest temperature 68 degrees. We had only two count'em two dry days this month the 16th and 17th.
In the last week and a cold air moved in the the thermometer moved down. In the last 10 days the snow pack at Timberline lodge has gone from less than 2 feet to just under 7 feet. Great news unless your Mt. Hood Meadows. Oregon 35 the road to Meadows, remains washed out because of heavy rains early in the month. Snow levels briefly dropped down to the valley floor our overnight low on the Wednesday the 29th was 27 degrees.
But wait mother nature Isn't done with us. On the last day of November she through in some freezing rain in parts of east Multnomah, Clark counties and the Columbia River Gorge briefly shutting down I-84, the main route between the east and westsides of the state.
Looking ahead for the first few days of December, It's quiet, very quiet. I for one I'm ok with that. Nothing I like more than standing on my roof putting up Christmas lights with the rain falling, wind blowing and playing with electricity! (note sarcasm)
Dave Salesky
Meteorologist KGW-TV
Before the cold air moved in and the snow started flying, Sunday's storm made this the wettest November ever recorded in several Oregon cities.
Portland Airport: 11.65" of rain. Old record was 11.57" in 1942
Troutdale: 12.59" of rain. Old record was 11.80" in 1960
Vancouver: 12.97" of rain. Old record was 12.92" in 1942
Astoria: 20.22" of rain. Old record was 19.60" in 1998
So there you have it. Our crazy November continues...hope you're enjoying the ride!
Bruce
bsussman@kgw.com
Happy Thanksgiving! Just in time for the Friday shopping frenzy, my Northwest Weather Calendar is available at all Portland area Albertsons, GI Joe's and Pro Photo Supply in NW Portland. We've dropped the price this year to $8.88 (gee, how'd we come up with that number?), and the proceeds continue to go to the Business Education Compact.
Check them out at http://www.becpdx.org.
What's a Weather Calendar? It's a 12-month high quality wall calendar with pictures I've taken from all around the Northwest. Most of my pictures connect Northwest landscape and climate. There's a description on each page that explains that month's picture and its relation to Northwest weather. Each month has historical factoids about Northwest weather and natural history. There are also average temperatures for each month, cool and colorful maps of Oregon's average rainfall, and sunrise and sunset times throughout the year. It's been a great pleasure for me to combine my passion for weather and the outdoors into something that helps local school kids learn and get ahead through the BEC.
It's also been a lot of fun doing calendar signings like the one pictured below at Pro Photo Supply:
Troy Wayrynen of the Vancouver Columbian popped in and made this picture of me signing a calendar for his kids. My next calendar signing will be at GI Joe's in Beaverton on Saturday December 9 from 10 am to noon. Hope to see you there!
Regards,
Matt Zaffino
KGW Chief Meteorologist
p.s. Here are a few pictures from the 2007 Northwest Weather Calendar.
February 2007
November 2007
We did it. Last night, we broke into the top 5. But this is no Billboard or Box Office list.
If this were an awards show, we might call it the 'rainies'. Of course, I don't think that's really a word, but it probably works anyway...in this case.
As of noon today, this is the 4th wettest November in Portland history. Here's the complete top 5 list.
1) 11.57" - 1942
2) 11.53" - 1973
3) 11.15" - 1995
4) 10.11" - 2006
5) 9.74" - 1984
So as you can see...we're just about an inch and a half away from hitting number one. And there's a good chance we'll do that while you're snapping up all those good deals on stuff this weekend.
I hope you have a great Thanksgiving!
Bruce (Sussman - Weather Guy)
One person's "better" can be another's worst nightmare, but for the sake of discussion let's go with drier, warmer, less stormy than the last two weeks. Then again the Aleutian Islands have been less stormy than the Northwest for the last two weeks, so that's not setting the bar very high, but you get the idea.
Let me start with El Nino. We have one. And during past, but not all, El Nino's, we've seen the fall storm season begin wet and wild only to taper off dramatically after the inital onslaught. There's no indication of any immediate change to dry and warm, but there does seem to be a change in the overall pattern brewing over the next couple weeks. It looks like a cooler and less severe weather regime will take over the Northwest next week. It's a really good pattern for snow in the Cascades as weather systems come out of the Gulf of Alaska with air cold enough to keep the snow level below the passes. After that hangs around for a while, it's quite possible that as the jet stream adjusts to the El Nino-warmed tropical Pacific Ocean and the heat it releases to the atmosphere, that the sub-tropical jetstream, which has been toying with the Northwest, will strengthen and take aim farther south, as in a typical El Nino. This often, but not always, dries out the Northwest.
There are a few other interesting things happening that are worth watching:
Hurricane Sergio is spinning northward off the Mexican Coast toward Baja. It's the strongest eastern Pacific hurricane ever recorded so late in the season. Conversely, Arctic air is building over Alaska, and it's always worth keeping an eye on where that might end up. Both of these events will likely have no direct impact on Northwest weather, but they may be signs that some strange weather patterns are in the air.
And oh yes, how about those winds today in Oregon:
122 mph on Mt Hebo in the Coast Range east of Tillamook
107 mph at Rockaway Beach
53 mph at Portland Airport
42 mph at KGW in downtown Portland
62 mph in Vancouver
71 mph in Seaside
75 mph in Lincoln City
Add to the list.. our friends up in the Emerald City just broke their all-time November rainfall record with 11.63" at SeaTac Airport. And we're only half-way through the month. Stay tuned!
Matt Zaffino
KGW Chief Meteorologist
Would you believe we've been hit by a windstorm before, on this very date?
True story. It was November 13, 1981.
The storm created wind gusts topping 100mph along parts of the Oregon Coast, just like our current windstorm did. And gusts in the Willamette Valley were even stronger than this time around: 71mph in both Salem and Portland.
Amazingly, the 1981 storm was followed by a second windstorm two days later. The end result: 11 people killed; $50 million in damage and about 500,000 customers without power in our parts of Washington and Oregon.
Pretty ironic that 25 years later, a windstorm would hit us on the same exact date.
Thanks for reading...and here's to some calmer winds ahead!
Bruce Sussman
Meteorologist
bsussman@kgw.com
Having lived on the coast nearly 20 years, I was wondering why this storm has such a high barometric reading? We can usually predict "big ones", but not this time! Thank you.
Cool observation and question. Reason the pressure is so high is because the center of this storm is so far away.. up near the Queen Charlotte Islands. But, wind is caused by the DIFFERENCE in pressure over an area, not the absolute value of air pressure itself. The pressure difference, or gradient, over the Coast is pretty impressive tonight, even though the values are high. You're point about usually being able to see the big one because of low pressure is vaild, because a falling, especially rapidly falling pressure, is a good indication a storm, with a strong pressure gradient around it, is approaching.
ok.. thanks for playing everyone.. it was fun. Hope you enjoyed it too!
Matt Zaffino
KGW Chief Meterologist
Matt-
I wanted to let you know that the Salmon River in Otis Oregon has risen in my back yard up the bank and over into everyones yard for a total of about 8-10 feet in the last 4 hours. i did try to send pictures but they didn't go though. I hope that everything is the same tomorrow so maybe you could have someone come out and shoot all the water.
Amanda Howton
Sounds like tomorrow will be a good morning to hit the Otis Cafe for that awesome potoato-egg-cheese dish they make. Yummy I love that place. Thanks Amanda for trying to send pics. If you want to try to email them directly to me, my email address is
mzaffino@kgw.com
I'll pass your note on to the news folks and we'll see if we can make it down your way tomorrow.
We live in LaGrande and wonder why no one gives a weather report for this area. Usually, if you give one at all, it is very brief and you stand in front of the map and we can't even see the satellite picture. No one gives the weather for this area. Boise gives up to Baker City and you don't give much past The Dalles. It would be so nice to have a report for this area. We are part of Oregon, you know. We all watch Portland news hoping to get a weather report, but we never get one. We would sure appreciate being recognized as part of the state of Oregon and getting a weather report. You report on Washington weather but ignore us. PLEASE! It would help us out a lot to know what the weather report is. Thanks!
Sorry Linda couldn't help it. :) Hey we love you guys over there.. I'll always remember the great hospitality you extended during Cycle Oregon 2003. I have friends in Halfway and Pendleton, so I know you're out there. Great part of the state. I TRY to get out of the way so you can see yourself. Problem is the nature of TV news... we get crunched for time and those controlling producers try to herd us along like cattle. But I will re-double my efforts to get my ... self... out of the way. We appreciate you watching.
Hi Matt,
there has been a lot of debate as to whether we are really in an El Nino type set up or not. George Taylor says one thing and other meteorologists say another and NOAA seems to change back and forth. What is your best thoughts and what the rest of our winter might bring esp. the chance of arctic air/snow. PDO's, SST's and all those indicators seem to indicate a mild El Nino at best at least as far as my limited skills can tell.
Kindly,
Ron
Hey Ron.. good questions. A majority of climate models and indices not only point to us being in a mild El Nino state right now, but the El Nino conditions will increase, or atleast persist, through the winter. I've yet to see a climate forecast for this winter that argues for increased chances of arctic air and valley snow. So like I said in a previous entry, the deck is stacked against it. That said, Momma Nature has been known to deal us an ace (in this lame metaphor I mean valley snow) when the deck has been stacked before. We had a recent winter... I think it was 2004-05, or maybe 2003-04, where we had a La Nina and we ALL expected a cold wet winter and we got nothing. Point is El Nino/La Nina is only part of the picture.. there are other large-scale phenomena that force climate of which we have little knowledge. And.. we've had some snowy valley winters during weak El Nino's like this. It depends largely on HOW this El Nino develops and changes over the coming weeks and months. And remember, each El Nino is different. So there's hope for you snow lovers... but not a lot.
I live in E.Vancouver, off Mill Plain BLVD. Its raining pretty good right now, but I am one of those weird Northwesterners who love a dumping of any kind of precipitation :) BTW..Hawks are up 13-0. Thoughts on valley floor snow this winter?
Go Hawks. Winter valley snow.. doubtful this year. All signs point to a warmer than average winter. The precip could go either way. We're in an El Nino year and nothing points to big valley snow chances. That said, we've had some major valley snows in weak El Nino's like this. And it only takes one to make everyone think it was a snowy winter. But odds are against it.
I was wondering also if glaciers are actively reforming on the slopes of Mt. St. Helens after the May 1980 eruption.
There were up until the eruption cycle that started back in the fall of 2004. But only in the crater, which is a northern exposure and in the shade a lot. It's doubtfull we'll ever see glaciers on the outer slopes of St Helens again. Too low, too much sun, no snowfields that last from one winter to the next which is what you need to build glaciers.
Once we get this pineapple express out of the way is it safe to say there won't be another one for a while; I'd like to think there won't be long periods of high elevation rain again this winter.
No, it's not at all safe to say that. We've only just begun the rainy season. If by "a while", you mean the next couple weeks, then yes, I don't see this happening again in the next two or so weeks. But it could easily Pineapple Express on us again in any of the next three months. Which would be worse, brcause we're likely to have snow to melt by then. Thanks Bill.. good question.
I see where some of the automated stations in the Oregon Coast Range and Mt. St. Helens area have recorded 24 hour rainfall amounts of 10 to more than 13 inches of rain. Why are rivers expected to crest by late tomorrow morning, before the rains may have yet ceased?
Hey Dan.. good to hear from you. I suspect it's because the rainfall rates will drop off, and because we're not melting snow, the rivers respond quickly to the rate of rainfall. If the river or stream is downstream from a dam, then dam releases will also impact the crest.
when is the really heavy rain going to hit the vancouver-portland area. I am watching the Seahawks game right now and some of the rain shots are VERY heavy, but the radar shows the same 'colors' up there as down here. Why aren't we getting the heavy showers that they are? thanks Matt
Robyn... Yes, they're getting drilled like the Huskies football team in a Pac 10 game right now. :)
As the cold front sags south, our rain will increase overnight. Have you been outside?! It's been dumping here too. You must not live on a river.
What is this winter going to be like warm and wet or will we get snow in the mountains?
Josh.. we wil certainly get snow in the mountains. Starting later this week the snow level drops to about 3,000 ft. And the pattern looks really good for building the snow pack over the next couple weeks so a skiable Thanksgiving is definitely in the range of possibility. As for the entire winter... probably not as epic as last year, but still decent. But this is an El Nino year, and some El Nino's start fast and furious like this and then.. nothing. That's all we get. So my advice would be to ski early and ski often. Or snowboard. Whatever your pleasure.
mellotrongirl... Here it is.
ok... After a great summer and fall Momma Nature says Game On. This is most likely a once in every ten years event. 5" in 3 hours in Elsie!?! 6" in Seaside in 24 hours. Over a foot since Thursday at Lees Camp in the Coast Range.
Questions? Comments?
Matt Zaffino
We woke up to temperatures near 70 this morning. That's crazy. Over the last couple of days, I've been asked two main questions:
1) Why is it so warm around here?
and
2) Why is it so incredibly wet?
The answer to #1: Now normally, we'd get storms that are 'born' in the Gulf of Alaska (where it's very cold!!) and then they share that cold air with us as they roll in.
But this series of storms is developing in warmer places. And as they move in, they're essentially sucking massive amounts of warm air from our south right into our skies. We notice that as gusty winds that just won't stop. And bingo! Next thing you know, it's near 70.
The asnwer to #2:
Today's storm is an incredible mix: part of the rain we'll have is what's left of Typhoon Cimaron, which hammered the Phillipines last week. Thousands of miles later, here comes rain from that thing, headed right at us.
And this series of systems has also tapped into warm, moist air down near Hawaii. It's kind of like there's this invisible fire hose in the sky that stretches from the islands to Oregon. And right now, we're at the end where all the water comes out.
There's one final factor: warm air can actually hold more moisture than cold air can...so that's why our warm storms tend to be the wettest we get all year. That's it...thanks for reading...
Bruce Sussman
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