Let's Hold On Here Everbody.
Hold on now everybody let's not go jumping onto the El Nino bandwagon just yet. Yes I've seen the data and watched the stories about this being another El Nino winter. George Taylor, down at OSU has revised his forecast, with precipitation tapering off by mid-winter.
Data coming in on the ENSO (El Nino Southern Oscillation) index shows a couple of things. First, this El Nino is getting started late in the season. Usually we see signs of warming trend off the coast of Peru and Ecuador around May or June. Second, the ENSO index at this time is showing slightly above normal water temperatures.
Look at the graphic from the Scripps Institute below.
Buoy data shows ocean temperatures up about .5 to 1.5 degrees at best a small El Nino. Bottom line, I wouldn't give up on a typical Pacific Northwest winter. Rain will fall on the valley floor and snow in the mountains. Maybe even a risk of a little ol' man winter appearing at lower elevations. I don't plan on putting my ski gear away just yet!
Dave Salesky
